2015-16 International Free Agency Thread

[craig]

I wonder whether the opportunity to get Heyward came at some expense to the procurement budget?

 

Theo talked about needing "creativity". If Theo was appealing to Ricketts and accounting/budget to get creative and reallocate due to special Heyward opportunity, might they have not have expected him to provide some of those millions by reallocating some from the Cuban cookie jar?

 

We'll never know, unless the Cubs do proceed and sign some more significant Cubans. But they may have heavily depleted their discretionary cash.

[davell]

Nope, I honestly don't think so. I think there's a separate discretionary fund for these types of things. Mainly because of the Moncada news that we came very close to getting him to wait until July to sign, due to Maddon meeting with him. That would have been 60+ mill and there's no way Theo makes that deal if it keeps them from signing Lester in that offseason.

 

Theo and Jed have both said they're looking at adding pitching to multiple levels of our organization as well, which stood out to me, on this front. Theo went in November to see Ruiz and Perez himself, which shows serious intent. We're supposedly the favorites on Morejon too.

 

It's a one time/last time type of thing that especially after losing our 1st(and comp pick) this year, we'll replenish this way.

 

As to the how we may have this type of fund.....I think it's probably been built by money we saved from midseason trade offs during the lean years, any profit that was accumulated at the end of those seasons that hadn't been spent, along with the extra TV money, attendance, playoff revenue, etc from this past season, coupled with a very solid increase in ticket prices for 2016 as well. Not to mention, you can probably use signing bonuses in fairly creative ways, when it comes to payroll.

 

No, I do NOT expect us to come out of this spending another 40 mill, plus overages, but assuming a bunch of these guys are available in time, I'd put our over/under at 25 mill(plus overages). Which should net us 2 out of Ruiz/Gutierrez/Morejon/Perez/Bolanos and one position guy, like Machado, Arozarena, etc. If that buys us MORE than that, then wonderful.

[Guest]

I think he's saying they may have taken from said discretionary cash to make the Heyward thing work, which doesn't seem all that implausible to me.

[davell]

I think he's saying they may have taken from said discretionary cash to make the Heyward thing work, which doesn't seem all that implausible to me.

 

I get what he's saying. I'm saying I think there's more there. It's possible, but I think they went over the top and included next year in order to get Heyward, but I don't see Theo doing a trade off on something like this. Yes, Heyward is far more important obviously. But, I don't see Theo giving something up in this case. I think he's getting what he wants overall, especially with his own contract coming up.

Edited December 28, 2015 by davell

[Cubswin11]

How much do we "save" for losing our top 2 picks in the draft this year for signing Heyward and Lackey?

[Guest]

How much do we "save" for losing our top 2 picks in the draft this year for signing Heyward and Lackey?

 

2-3 million

[craig]

We're all speculating, but I think Dave's argument is well structured: they had access to massive $$$ for Moncada; they stated an interest in pitching "at all levels" only two months ago; and Theo is too long-term and youth-oriented to allow the farm to get emptied by two blank years.

 

Targetting Price/Miller/Carasco/Samardz/Lackey types, those wouldn't fit the "all levels" phrasing. [unless they were just referring to all levels within the major-league staff. High end starter (we'll talk to Price, and offer Baez or Soler for Carasco); second-level starters (Lackey, Samardz, Miller, Ross); back-end depth rotation/swing guys (Cahill, Warren); swing guys (Cahill, Warren, Richard); true relievers (Bastardo, Giles).]

 

But since "levels" normally refers to major and minor leagues, the "all levels" comment most likely implies stocking up the minors as well as helping at the big-league level. Given IFA as pretty much the only means of off-season minor-league pitching procurement, (other than via trade), the "all levels" comment certainly suggests the intent to use IFA.

 

That would also seem to fit Theo's long-term thinking. Same interview as the "all levels" comment, he talked about how he expected some "impact" pitching from the young minor leaguers, mentioning guys down in the short-season level (Cease, Sands, Steele, DelaRosa, Alzolay...). But the admin has generally seemed to be cognizant that the farm is not rich with pitching.

 

Theo knows they could be needing rotation guys next winter (Hammel) and the following (Lackey), plus in event of injury for other guys. So with no chance at big-ticket IFA's or high-round picks for the next couple of years, unless he's satisfied with the pitching he's got on the farm right now, he'd likely understand the importance of adding some IFA's this cycle.

 

Still, they seem to prioritize just getting value. So even if they know they want pitching, the IFA signings thus far have once more heavily skewed towards position guys.

[davell]

Lazaro Armenteros Highlight Video https://t.co/GmVfjaknjW

[Cubswin11]

In an article about Lazaro today I saw he can start individual workouts for teams now after his showcase today, even know we won't know if he's available to sign for this period for another few weeks.

[davell]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 5m5 minutes ago

 

Source: Cuban phenom Lazarito Armenteros cleared by MLB, eligible to sign starting Feb. 10. Corner OF/IF, 16 years old.

 

Sweet. Since he's getting into this class, based on WHEN he defected, I'm thinking most of these guys get put into this one now.

 

 

By the way, the reviews on his showcase were decided mixed.

[Guest]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 5m5 minutes ago

 

Source: Cuban phenom Lazarito Armenteros cleared by MLB, eligible to sign starting Feb. 10. Corner OF/IF, 16 years old.

 

Sweet. Since he's getting into this class, based on WHEN he defected, I'm thinking most of these guys get put into this one now.

Excellent. I want them all!

 

 

By the way, the reviews on his showcase were decided mixed.

Don't care. Still want all the new toys.

[Guest]

[expletive]. The. Dodgers.

[davell]

My honest hope is the Dodgers scouting differs from our quite a bit. Not just on Lazarito, but others as well. I REALLY want us to land some pitching, but I also want the pitching to start looking at least a bit more exciting than it does currently. At any rate, I want to see Ona, Ruiz, Morejon, and a few others cleared now too.

[davell]

And just like that, Badler says IF/OF Randy Arozarena is also cleared and eligible to sign. He's another 1st round type of talent. The list on page 14 is as up to date as possible, I think. I'll try to add which of these guys are 1st round type talents or some semblance of a blurb on them at some point soon.

 

Edit- added a bit on some of these guys. By no means is it intended to be anything other than a bit of help to some that may not be familiar at all to these prospects. If I've missed an age, a reported velo, or whatever, I expect it. But the main thing is who all are considered 1st round talents, of which I think I identified them all.

Edited January 12, 2016 by davell

[davell]

Evidently Alfredo Rodriguez, a SS, was cleared today too and Jesse Sanchez says he's got 6 mill from the Reds. I had read they wanted to push him to next signing period, so it may or may not take a LONG time for them to announce this.

[CubsWin]

Evidently Alfredo Rodriguez, a SS, was cleared today too and Jesse Sanchez says he's got 6 mill from the Reds. I had read they wanted to push him to next signing period, so it may or may not take a LONG time for them to announce this.

"He is a player of interest, but we do not have a deal," Reds general manager Walt Jocketty told the Cincinnati Enquirer on Monday night.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14554006/cincinnati-reds-cuban-ss-alfredo-rodriguez-agree-6-million-deal

 

Don't know what that quote means exactly. Could be it's not official yet. Could mean Rodriguez's agents jumped the gun or put out a "price setting" rumor. Could mean, as you suggested, that Cincy has an agreement with him that it will be official once the next signing period starts.

[davell]

You're not even supposed to negotiate with guys until they've been cleared. It's a no-no, by the rules anyway. They're just retracting(probably a bit pissed the number came out literally on the same day he gained eligibility) and will still sign him, maybe not for the exact same 6 mill figure. The same thing happened with Soler actually....Sullivan reported we had a deal in place with him months before he could even sign. We denied it and all, but Badler and most of those guys stayed extremely confident it was basically a done deal.

[Guest]

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[Guest]

Yeeeeees on Bolanos, but that is probably a duh statement since the Cubs should sign them all.

 

He had you at 6'3"

[davell]

He was an OF, just started pitching in 2014. I think theres a good chance he'd have more hype if there had been more looks at him. I'm starting to wonder if he winds up getting the most money of any of the pitchers.

[davell]

Ruiz is definitely the safer bet. I've got no clue where to peg the money on ANY of these guys honestly. I'll give it a shot though, if for no other reason than to see how wrong I am. Here's my half ass over/under on what these guys get.....

 

INF/OF Randy Arozarena- 12 mill

INF/OF Jonatan Machado-5.5 mill

OF Jorge Ona- 23 mill

OF Lazarito Armenteros(Lazarito)- 11 mill

INF Miguel Vargas-8.5 mill

RHP Vladimir Gutierrez-4.5 mill

LHP Adrian Morejon- 8 mill

RHP Norge Ruiz- 14 mill

RHP Ronald Bolanos-10 mill

LHP Cionel Perez-3.5 mill

[craig]

To belabor my standard precaution: hitting mid-90's in a showcase isn't inherently very impressive. If you can't, it's a bad sign, but if you can, it doesn't prove a ton.

1. Full-season minor-leaguers are pitching every 5th day and getting tired; showcase guys can be building up and resting all geared toward that showcase. Will a show-case mid-90's sustain mid-90's after 15 starts?

 

2. Even Tseng and Ryan Williams can hit mid-90's, if they are well-rested and throw their 4-seamer for velocity rather than their 2-seamers for movement and outs.

[davell]

He sits 88-93, based on reports from when he was in Cuba.