strasburg's innings limit

[El Duderino]

Why exactly won't the Nats be able to re-sign him?

 

clearly a small-market team with no money

[Sammy Sofa]

Especially since they have a new TV deal coming their way which could potentially add on another $40-$60 million on its own.

[USSoccer]

Oh, right, I forgot they were a lock to win the WS if they don't shut him down.

 

Who said that?

 

Nobody; just making fun of how you think the rest of the season and the postseason are "tangible."

 

"tangible" meaning you know you're in the playoffs this year and you know you're healthy. Neither of those things is guaranteed down the line

 

Derwood, stop being dense.

 

Of course there's no guarantee that they'll be in the playoffs year after year.

 

It's about which path gives them the best possible chance overall. This is just one season. Anything can go wrong in playoff baseball, in short series. So you have to give yourself the best shot at multiple playoff runs. If that means cutting one short so you have the chance at 10 more or whatever, it's a no brainer.

 

Also, even though it's been said multiple times already, how could you not understand this after 2003, and what happened with Wood and Prior pretty much immediately afterwards? Prior especially.

 

We went all in, fell victim to random-ass playoff baseball, and by the time we got in again, 4 years later, Prior was in the Cape Cod league, and Kerry Wood was a setup man.

[USSoccer]

Analogy time:

 

You have been broke for a long time. You finally get a okay job, and then you come into a small bit of money; enough to get you through 3 months of bills, and buy you enough time to get back on your feet and after several months, stabalize your broke-ness and build toward a long term future of never having to worry about being broke and moving back into your mom's basement again.

 

However...you could take that money and go to Vegas. Bet it all on black (always bet on black). If you win, you're set up for far longer, you can buy a new car or whatever and be immediately on your feet again.

 

Which of these ideas make more sense?

[treebird]

you had me at always bet on black

[Derwood]

Please sticky this thread so SOMEONE can say "I told you so" in about a decade

[Sammy Sofa]

We can do it now.

[Derwood]

Especially since they have a new TV deal coming their way which could potentially add on another $40-$60 million on its own.

 

Money is only good if the guy wants to stay.

[Sammy Sofa]

Well, I don't think it's a stretch to think the Nationals will be regularly competitive for a while, and unless they simply can't or won't match the highest offer I'd have to think they have the inside track in locking him up long term.

[Derwood]

Well, I don't think it's a stretch to think the Nationals will be regularly competitive for a while, and unless they simply can't or won't match the highest offer I'd have to think they have the inside track in locking him up long term.

 

maybe, but I can only assume Strasburg will sign wherever he feels he has the best chance to win

[Sammy Sofa]

Do elite Boras clients ever sign huge extensions before they hit FA?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I don't think either side of this argument are actually sitting down and making estimates of the risks vs. rewards involved. It looks like a whole lot of "well, that sounds about right to me."

 

Someone plug some numbers into an expected value formula, for nerd's sake. Like the one where Meph proved that trading for Jake Peavy was worth 2 championships in expected value.

[Clem Fandango]

That was only contingent on if we also acquired Khalil Greene

[WrigleyField 22]

Analogy time:

 

You have been broke for a long time. You finally get a okay job, and then you come into a small bit of money; enough to get you through 3 months of bills, and buy you enough time to get back on your feet and after several months, stabalize your broke-ness and build toward a long term future of never having to worry about being broke and moving back into your mom's basement again.

 

However...you could take that money and go to Vegas. Bet it all on black (always bet on black). If you win, you're set up for far longer, you can buy a new car or whatever and be immediately on your feet again.

 

Which of these ideas make more sense?

Well we have tons of statistical evidence that shows what a terrible decision gambling all your savings is. That's not the case with IP.

 

I am totally in favor of caution, but IP is just one aspect to consider. To use only that and throw everything thing else out seems stupid.

 

And as stated, even if you take the 30IP as gospel, you've already screwed up.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[hawkeyecub]

That was only contingent on if we also acquired Khalil Greene

 

Side note, didn't realize he has been out of baseball for 3 years.

[CubInOK]

Especially since they have a new TV deal coming their way which could potentially add on another $40-$60 million on its own.

 

Money is only good if the guy wants to stay.

Best Buy told me I should hate new revenue streams, so I should hate new revenue streams.

[Derwood]

Especially since they have a new TV deal coming their way which could potentially add on another $40-$60 million on its own.

 

Money is only good if the guy wants to stay.

Best Buy told me I should hate new revenue streams, so I should hate new revenue streams.

 

I have no idea what the [expletive] you're talking about.

[CubInOK]

Especially since they have a new TV deal coming their way which could potentially add on another $40-$60 million on its own.

 

Money is only good if the guy wants to stay.

Best Buy told me I should hate new revenue streams, so I should hate new revenue streams.

 

I have no idea what the [expletive] you're talking about.

That if they don't keep Strausberg, they can use the money on someone else like Harper or their other young players, or they can just keep it since they are a business.

[imb]

*run mark prior into the ground*

"Get me away from this horse [expletive] outfit!"

 

*show caution with Strasberg, to try and ensure he has a long career*

"GET ME TO THE YANKEES"

[Guest]

looking at prior's pitch counts from late 2003 makes me want to punch dusty baker in the throat.

 

here's how many pitches he threw in each of his starts after the marcus giles start:

 

79

116

118

100

116

131

122

109

124

131

133

 

playoffs:

133

116

119

 

 

take out that first start, and he threw 121.5 pitches per start in his age 22 season after suffering a shoulder injury. gee wonder why his career path to cooperstown went off the rails.

 

While the PC's are bad enough, even more frustrating to me was that Dusty left him in there to achieve some of those super high pitch counts in games that were well in hand. I want to say a couple of those 130+ games were games Dusty was trying to let Prior get a complete game shut out, or finish off an inning he got himself in trouble with.

 

ETA: Perfect example was the 131 PC start against St. Louis with a 7-0 lead after 6 innings. Dusty leaves him in there for 8 innings. Next start, 5-1 lead after 5, Dusty takes him out after 7 with 129 pitches thrown. Dumbass!

[UMFan83]

I give Derwood an A+ in this thread. Very entertaining.

[USSoccer]

Analogy time:

 

You have been broke for a long time. You finally get a okay job, and then you come into a small bit of money; enough to get you through 3 months of bills, and buy you enough time to get back on your feet and after several months, stabalize your broke-ness and build toward a long term future of never having to worry about being broke and moving back into your mom's basement again.

 

However...you could take that money and go to Vegas. Bet it all on black (always bet on black). If you win, you're set up for far longer, you can buy a new car or whatever and be immediately on your feet again.

 

Which of these ideas make more sense?

Well we have tons of statistical evidence that shows what a terrible decision gambling all your savings is. That's not the case with IP.

 

I am totally in favor of caution, but IP is just one aspect to consider. To use only that and throw everything thing else out seems stupid.

 

And as stated, even if you take the 30IP as gospel, you've already screwed up.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

The point is that, in the absence of absolute certainty, you err on the side of what's most likely to give you the best outcome.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The point is that, in the absence of absolute certainty, you err on the side of what's most likely to give you the best outcome.

 

I'd lean towards being cautious with him, mostly because I remember what happened with Prior. But that's not an objectively good reason. I haven't seen a really convincing argument either way.

[Sammy Sofa]

Tim mentioned there are a "lot" of studies out there that apparently would argue in favor of being cautious with Strasburg; maybe he can point some of them out.

[Guest]

Tim mentioned there are a "lot" of studies out there that apparently would argue in favor of being cautious with Strasburg; maybe he can point some of them out.

At a customer site this week, so I'll be limited in my time for research. I remember seeing things on this quite a few years back, though. Heck, some of the mainstream guys even got hold of it.