Minor League Discussion & Boxes 7-25-12

[Guest]

I know he's doing side sessions so that's definitely progress.

[craig]

Maples should be getting in game action rather soon, right? Any update?

 

iirc, he said he'd be pitching in games in july. not a good sign

 

I thought I read something somewhere (16th hand, of course) that July 29th might be the date.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I know that Baez, Almora, and Soler are all but cemented in as our top 3 prospects for next year, but Gioskar Amaya must be getting some serious consideration for 4-5. Maybe even crack the top 100? He's only 19, plays one of the most valuable positions, and already has the results at the lower levels. While he hasn't leapfrogged levels like Castro did, it's hard not to want to compare the two.

[Guest]

I know that Baez, Almora, and Soler are all but cemented in as our top 3 prospects for next year, but Gioskar Amaya must be getting some serious consideration for 4-5. Maybe even crack the top 100? He's only 19, plays one of the most valuable positions, and already has the results at the lower levels. While he hasn't leapfrogged levels like Castro did, it's hard not to want to compare the two.

While I'm really happy with Amaya's numbers, I'm more impressed with what Alcantara has done at Daytona. The differences in leagues + parks explains much of the production difference and Arismendy has all the tools to stay at SS. I'll have him (not to mention Vitters, Jackson + others) above Amaya.

[Guest]

I know that Baez, Almora, and Soler are all but cemented in as our top 3 prospects for next year, but Gioskar Amaya must be getting some serious consideration for 4-5. Maybe even crack the top 100? He's only 19, plays one of the most valuable positions, and already has the results at the lower levels. While he hasn't leapfrogged levels like Castro did, it's hard not to want to compare the two.

 

At the same age, with the same amount of pro experience, Starlin Casto was at AA Tennessee. Amaya is having a nice season but second base is not at all a valuable position and the NWL is an extremely hitter-friendly league. Amaya isn't even in my top 10 Cubs prospects.

[TruffleShuffle]

I know that Baez, Almora, and Soler are all but cemented in as our top 3 prospects for next year, but Gioskar Amaya must be getting some serious consideration for 4-5. Maybe even crack the top 100? He's only 19, plays one of the most valuable positions, and already has the results at the lower levels. While he hasn't leapfrogged levels like Castro did, it's hard not to want to compare the two.

 

At the same age, with the same amount of pro experience, Starlin Casto was at AA Tennessee. Amaya is having a nice season but second base is not at all a valuable position and the NWL is an extremely hitter-friendly league. Amaya isn't even in my top 10 Cubs prospects.

 

huh?

 

the team OPS's in the NWL are: .705, .704, .702, .692, .676, .675, .629, .625.

[Guest]

I know that Baez, Almora, and Soler are all but cemented in as our top 3 prospects for next year, but Gioskar Amaya must be getting some serious consideration for 4-5. Maybe even crack the top 100? He's only 19, plays one of the most valuable positions, and already has the results at the lower levels. While he hasn't leapfrogged levels like Castro did, it's hard not to want to compare the two.

 

At the same age, with the same amount of pro experience, Starlin Casto was at AA Tennessee. Amaya is having a nice season but second base is not at all a valuable position and the NWL is an extremely hitter-friendly league. Amaya isn't even in my top 10 Cubs prospects.

 

huh?

 

the team OPS's in the NWL are: .705, .704, .702, .692, .676, .675, .629, .625.

Odd - my recollection of the league factors is in line with Raisin's, though I hadn't looked so far this year.

[davell]

I have Torreyes over Amaya.

[TruffleShuffle]

Odd - my recollection of the league factors is in line with Raisin's, though I hadn't looked so far this year.

 

2011: .748, .723, .721, .702, .698, .693, .675, .673

2010: .750, .746, .702, .683, .679, .669, .652, .635

[ctcf]

Vogelbach is now 3-4, with an RBI double to tie it up. Clearly not ready for Boise.

[Guest]

Vogelbach is now 3-4, with an RBI double to tie it up. Clearly not ready for Boise.

He's only at .625

 

Batting average, that is.

[ctcf]

Vogelbach is now 3-4, with an RBI double to tie it up. Clearly not ready for Boise.

He's only at .625

 

Batting average, that is.

 

Should have listened to Keith Law...

[Guest]

I know that Baez, Almora, and Soler are all but cemented in as our top 3 prospects for next year, but Gioskar Amaya must be getting some serious consideration for 4-5. Maybe even crack the top 100? He's only 19, plays one of the most valuable positions, and already has the results at the lower levels. While he hasn't leapfrogged levels like Castro did, it's hard not to want to compare the two.

 

At the same age, with the same amount of pro experience, Starlin Casto was at AA Tennessee. Amaya is having a nice season but second base is not at all a valuable position and the NWL is an extremely hitter-friendly league. Amaya isn't even in my top 10 Cubs prospects.

 

huh?

 

the team OPS's in the NWL are: .705, .704, .702, .692, .676, .675, .629, .625.

Odd - my recollection of the league factors is in line with Raisin's, though I hadn't looked so far this year.

 

Yeah, color me surprised.

 

The rest of my post still stands. There's no reason to compare Starlin Castro to Gioskar Amaya.

[Named After Maddux]

I know that Baez, Almora, and Soler are all but cemented in as our top 3 prospects for next year, but Gioskar Amaya must be getting some serious consideration for 4-5. Maybe even crack the top 100? He's only 19, plays one of the most valuable positions, and already has the results at the lower levels. While he hasn't leapfrogged levels like Castro did, it's hard not to want to compare the two.

 

At the same age, with the same amount of pro experience, Starlin Casto was at AA Tennessee. Amaya is having a nice season but second base is not at all a valuable position and the NWL is an extremely hitter-friendly league. Amaya isn't even in my top 10 Cubs prospects.

 

huh?

 

the team OPS's in the NWL are: .705, .704, .702, .692, .676, .675, .629, .625.

Odd - my recollection of the league factors is in line with Raisin's, though I hadn't looked so far this year.

 

Yeah, color me surprised.

 

The rest of my post still stands. There's no reason to compare Starlin Castro to Gioskar Amaya.

 

I have Amaya as the Cubs' 4th best prospect... that plays on the Boise Hawks: Candelario, Pierce Johnson, Vogelbach, then maybe Amaya. He's a quality prospect, but not fourth overall in the system.

[TruffleShuffle]

The rest of my post still stands. There's no reason to compare Starlin Castro to Gioskar Amaya.

 

i agree with that. actually there's not much reason to compare most prospects with starlin castro, because most prospects don't hit well in the high minors as a teenager.

 

that being said, amaya is #2 in the NWL at age 19 (yeah there are a lot of 19 year olds there, but there are also a lot of recent college juniors and seniors), so he should be given some props.

[davell]

I like Amaya a lot, but I agree with NamedafterMaddux. He's 4th for me on Boise. My current top 10 goes Baez, Soler, Almora, Brett, Vitters, Candelario, Szczur, Alcantara, P Johnson, and Vogelbach. With the idea that Johnson moves quickly next year.

[craig]

A friend mentioned how hot Szczur has been post-break: Szczur since the break: .337, 22 BB, 17 K, 19 SB in 104 AB's

.907 OPS, .445 OBP. 27 games. 22 walks and 19 steals in 27 games, that it pretty amazing. His BABIP has been high (hard to hit .337 when you're K'ing 16% of AB and have no over-the-wall HR's....) But the base-stealing volume is pretty interesting.

 

I'm pretty interested in Amaya. Seems we've got some numbers of non-power-hitting non-super-stud 2B prospects. Lockhart, Amaya, Torreyes, Watkins, delaRosa, I'm not sure which will end up best. But there are some possibilities, and perhaps one of them will emerge as a capable OBP-style 2b. I'm surprised Amaya has K'd as much as he has. But I'm under the impression that he scouts as a very gifted bat-handler, and is an alert, smart, coachable kid. I haven't gotten the idea that scouts project power for him, though. My sense is that his 4 HR's this summer are maybe more a surprise than the tip of the iceberg.

 

I'm much less buzzed about Alcantara than some of you guys. He's got some qualities. But I'm skeptical of utility-prospects who are massive error-makers. My sense is that to be a real high-use utility guy, you need to be kind of a naturally reliable glove-man. I think managers want to trust a utility guy, so Alcantara's prolific error-rate makes me skeptical. As a no-walk hacker with somewhat limited power-projection, I just don't see the ceiling being that high or that reachable. Certainly won't be in my top-10.

[craig]

http://yfrog.com/5es72z

 

Nice catch by Szczur.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Part of what puts Amaya ahead of Alcantara for me is that Amaya has been highly touted for I believe 2 years now, whereas Alcantara, while I seem to remember him in the radar before this year kind of popped out of nowhere as a toppish prospect. While this might not sound like a viable reason for ranking him higher, it seems as though in the past reputation alone has entered into the rankings.

[Guest]

Part of what puts Amaya ahead of Alcantara for me is that Amaya has been highly touted for I believe 2 years now, whereas Alcantara, while I seem to remember him in the radar before this year kind of popped out of nowhere as a toppish prospect. While this might not sound like a viable reason for ranking him higher, it seems as though in the past reputation alone has entered into the rankings.

 

I'm not a fan of reputation pushing prospect up lists.

 

One reason Alcantara flew under the radar was that he was promoted more aggressively than Amaya and understandably didn't do as well the past two years (at 18, Amaya made his US debut in the AZL while Alcantara made his US debut at age 18 in Boise; in their age 19 years, Amaya is in Boise while Alcantara was in Peoria). Alcantara plays a much tougher position defensively, is still young for his level and is (apparently also) doing well in a pitcher's league.

 

Alcantara and Candelario are the only two Latin Americans I can think of in recent years who made their age 18 US debut in Boise and not Mesa.

[craig]

Part of what puts Amaya ahead of Alcantara for me is that Amaya has been highly touted for I believe 2 years now, whereas Alcantara, while I seem to remember him in the radar before this year kind of popped out of nowhere as a toppish prospect. While this might not sound like a viable reason for ranking him higher, it seems as though in the past reputation alone has entered into the rankings.

 

I'm not a fan of reputation pushing prospect up lists.

 

One reason Alcantara flew under the radar was that he was promoted more aggressively than Amaya and understandably didn't do as well the past two years (at 18, Amaya made his US debut in the AZL while Alcantara made his US debut at age 18 in Boise; in their age 19 years, Amaya is in Boise while Alcantara was in Peoria). Alcantara plays a much tougher position defensively, is still young for his level and is (apparently also) doing well in a pitcher's league.

 

Alcantara and Candelario are the only two Latin Americans I can think of in recent years who made their age 18 US debut in Boise and not Mesa.

 

Yes. Guys straight to Boise are extremely rare, and that only happens when they are rather impressive in some way. Alcantara has defensive tools that are in a different world from Amaya. He's got range and arm that Amaya will never have. That said, tools are one thing, consistency on regular plays is another. If you make two errors on routine plays for every "extra" play that your tools enable you to make, where's the gain? Alcantara is also faster.

 

I don't really get the thing that Amaya has more reputation or has been rated more highly. His non-hitting tools have been rated way lower than Alcantara's.

 

That said, I do kind of think that "reputation" does factor to me. Because to me, "reputation" is built on either or both of two things: tools, and/or actual performance. Alcantara has a bigger reputation I think for good reason, because his "athletic" tools are much better. But Amaya had some reputation of his own because he's OPS'ing .950 and hitting .330 this year, and hit .378 last year. If his reputation is based on being a gifted hitter and he's a gifted productive hitter now, the same things that created some reputation will factor into his ranking on my list.

 

If he hits like a hitter this year, and he hit like a hitter last year, and he scouts like a hitter every year, maybe he is a hitter? HItting is a valuable tool, and can get some guys onto prospect lists.

[bukie]

SCS, stop trying to evaluate players.

[Guest]

Part of what puts Amaya ahead of Alcantara for me is that Amaya has been highly touted for I believe 2 years now, whereas Alcantara, while I seem to remember him in the radar before this year kind of popped out of nowhere as a toppish prospect. While this might not sound like a viable reason for ranking him higher, it seems as though in the past reputation alone has entered into the rankings.

 

I'm not a fan of reputation pushing prospect up lists.

 

One reason Alcantara flew under the radar was that he was promoted more aggressively than Amaya and understandably didn't do as well the past two years (at 18, Amaya made his US debut in the AZL while Alcantara made his US debut at age 18 in Boise; in their age 19 years, Amaya is in Boise while Alcantara was in Peoria). Alcantara plays a much tougher position defensively, is still young for his level and is (apparently also) doing well in a pitcher's league.

 

Alcantara and Candelario are the only two Latin Americans I can think of in recent years who made their age 18 US debut in Boise and not Mesa.

 

Yes. Guys straight to Boise are extremely rare, and that only happens when they are rather impressive in some way. Alcantara has defensive tools that are in a different world from Amaya. He's got range and arm that Amaya will never have. That said, tools are one thing, consistency on regular plays is another. If you make two errors on routine plays for every "extra" play that your tools enable you to make, where's the gain? Alcantara is also faster.

 

I don't really get the thing that Amaya has more reputation or has been rated more highly. His non-hitting tools have been rated way lower than Alcantara's.

 

That said, I do kind of think that "reputation" does factor to me. Because to me, "reputation" is built on either or both of two things: tools, and/or actual performance. Alcantara has a bigger reputation I think for good reason, because his "athletic" tools are much better. But Amaya had some reputation of his own because he's OPS'ing .950 and hitting .330 this year, and hit .378 last year. If his reputation is based on being a gifted hitter and he's a gifted productive hitter now, the same things that created some reputation will factor into his ranking on my list.

 

If he hits like a hitter this year, and he hit like a hitter last year, and he scouts like a hitter every year, maybe he is a hitter? HItting is a valuable tool, and can get some guys onto prospect lists.

 

The only reason I can think Amaya built any reputation is because he was an AZL top 20 prospect last year. Otherwise, Marco Hernandez has stolen the limelight from Amaya.

[El Duderino]

How far has Marco slid this year? He's obviously still really young with great ceiling, but the performance just hasn't been there.

[Guest]

How far has Marco slid this year? He's obviously still really young with great ceiling, but the performance just hasn't been there.

 

Not too ridiculously low since he still has the tools and age. For me, he probably went from preseason back of the top 10 to the 15-20 range around where I'd have Torreyes and Amaya.