Minor League Discussion & Boxes 6-16-12

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I don't doubt that Brett Jackson will generally be a high BABIP guy and Vitters a low BABIP guy. But I think the gap is a tiny bit exaggerated this year. Jackson's not a .387 BABIP guy in the long run, and Vitters isn't a .307 BABIP guy in the long run. .355 and .325 seem a lot more reasonable.

 

According to first inning, Vitters has a LD-BABIP gap of .134, Jackson's is .177.

 

As I type, there's only .043 difference in OPS between the two. That's pretty close, and I think the peripherals could support numbers that are even a bit closer.

[Guest]

That's a lot of hand-waving to make sure you get to your pre-determined conclusion. 45 points of OPS is not insignificant, Jackson's speed advantage matters, as does his 65 point BABIP advantage over a combined 3500 plate appearances. Josh Vitters is not going to be a .325 BABIP guy, he's been fortunate to get to .300 in the high minors.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

That's a lot of hand-waving to make sure you get to your pre-determined conclusion. 45 points of OPS is not insignificant, Jackson's speed advantage matters, as does his 65 point BABIP advantage over a combined 3500 plate appearances. Josh Vitters is not going to be a .325 BABIP guy, he's been fortunate to get to .300 in the high minors.

 

It's no more than a moderate amount of handwaving.