Free Agency heating up, lets get Puljos!!!!

[davearm2]

hey albert good news we got some extra money and its enough to pay you more all the way through 2021 upfront

fixed

[Sammy Sofa]

dave, how much money would you guess they have available from the WS win?

 

And please, don't give us some "nobody knows" crap as if that justifies making ridiculous suggestions along the lines of Pujols being more likely to sign the smaller deals reportedly offered by the Cardinals because of a signing bonus based out of WS money. I really want to know what you think they have at their disposal to offer along these lines.

 

Let's use the reported 9 years/$195 million deal. How much would you guess the WS would allow them to add upfront to that deal?

[NonProfitCow]

First off, I think Greinke has both better stuff and better command of it.

 

Second, the above shows up in the statistical profile quite clearly. Check the k/bb ratios for the two guys: 4.47 to 2.78. Flat out, I like Greinke a lot better.

 

Hadn't looked at K/BB, Greinke is definitely a lot better there. The career numbers are a decent amount closer (3.48 to 2.16), however, and Wilson has improved both his K/9 and BB/9 from year one to year two. Greinke will remain better than Wilson in that area, I'm sure, but it'll be interesting to see if Wilson continues to improve on those numbers into next year.

 

I also wonder what Greinke did differently this year, as he had his best K/9 ratio of his career, by nearly a full strikeout over 2009.

Changed leagues. He faced a pitcher 48 times, struck them out 29 times and walked none.

Edited October 31, 2011 by NonProfitCow

[Splendid Splinter]

Dave,

 

How big do you think X would be? I guess that would be the difference in it being a significant factor or not.

I found a great article on this, actually, although it illustrates only gross ticket revenues.

 

http://www.bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3081:mlb-average-postseason-revenue-over-the-last-decade&catid=26:editorials&Itemid=39

 

Using their math, the Cards' gross ticket revenue estimate for 2011 postseason was $3.5M (NLDS) + $6.6M (NLCS) + $14M (WS) = roughly $24M.

 

Not included are:

game-day expenses

ancillary game-day revenues (parking, merchandise, concessions etc)

indirect revenues that accrue the following season (new or increased sponsorships, added season ticket sales, etc).

 

Naturally all of those things are going to be sketchy to estimate, but you've got $24M in the pot right off the bat.

 

 

Just for kicks... lets say total extra revenue from the postseason ended up at $24M. Realistically, how much of that 24M do you think they'll put towards Pujols? Half? 75%? Don't forget it'll be divided up by however many years the contract is unless this money is just strictly signing bonus that's paid upfront... I mean yeah I can see them throw a few more millions on top of what they offered, but it's more like 1M/yr more or like 10M (max IMO) added to the signing bonus that's upfront. Still the overall AAV of the deal isn't going up that much to where Pujols is going to accept it right then and there.

 

Plus I know ownership are paying extra on the stadium so the loan can be done quicker and I can see them throwing part of the postseason revenue into that as well and gonna pocket some of that revenue for themselves too.

[Sammy Sofa]

Wait, don't the player bonuses eat into that take?

 

Player’s Pool

 

60% of the total gate receipts form the first four World Series Games, 60% of the total gate receipts from the first four games of the American League Championship and National League Championship, and 60% of the total gate receipts of the first three games of each of the four Division series are put into a “Player’s Pool.”

 

There's absolutely no way they have an extra $24 million from the playoffs to throw at Pujols. There's likely less than $10 million that could go towards a signing after the player's pool and other expenses.

[17 Seconds]

nsbb wins again

[Guest]

Dave,

 

How big do you think X would be? I guess that would be the difference in it being a significant factor or not.

I found a great article on this, actually, although it illustrates only gross ticket revenues.

 

http://www.bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3081:mlb-average-postseason-revenue-over-the-last-decade&catid=26:editorials&Itemid=39

 

Using their math, the Cards' gross ticket revenue estimate for 2011 postseason was $3.5M (NLDS) + $6.6M (NLCS) + $14M (WS) = roughly $24M.

 

Not included are:

game-day expenses

ancillary game-day revenues (parking, merchandise, concessions etc)

indirect revenues that accrue the following season (new or increased sponsorships, added season ticket sales, etc).

 

Naturally all of those things are going to be sketchy to estimate, but you've got $24M in the pot right off the bat.

Of course, you also need to net out the operating expenses from that number. Also, I'm sure they won't just give it all to Pujols.

 

Say they run at a 50% margin. That brings the amount down to $12M. Then we'll be generous and say they give half that to Pujols.

 

So you're talking about upping their offer from $190M to $196M? It's a difference, but not that significant.

[Guest]

Just saw N&G's response.

 

After you deduct for the player pool, you have to pay for other operating expenses such as power, cleanup crews, ushers, etc.

 

There's not going to be some rich bounty there they can add to Albert's offer.

[NonProfitCow]

Of course, you also need to net out the operating expenses from that number. Also, I'm sure they won't just give it all to Puljos.

 

Say they run at a 50% margin. That brings the amount down to $12M. Then we'll be generous and say they give half that to Puljos.

 

So you're talking about upping their offer from $190M to $196M? It's a difference, but not that significant.

fixed

[mul21]

Dewitt was on the radio down here a few weeks ago and said pretty flat out that the Cardinals didn't make any significant amount of money off of the playoffs unless they went 7 games of the World Series. That being said, I'm sure they made money, but not anything significant enough to pay Pujols any more than they already could. Now, whether he was telling the truth or not is an entirely different story.

 

Interesting side note, I was told that they were selling the empty champagne bottle from the NLCS celebration in the team store at the stadium. WTF?

[Guest]

Of course, you also need to net out the operating expenses from that number. Also, I'm sure they won't just give it all to Puljos.

 

Say they run at a 50% margin. That brings the amount down to $12M. Then we'll be generous and say they give half that to Puljos.

 

So you're talking about upping their offer from $190M to $196M? It's a difference, but not that significant.

fixed

I don't get it...

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The link's estimates already had the player's take taken out.

 

The average owner's take (excluding the player take for required games) for Games 3 and 4 of a Division Series, 3, 4 and 5 of the LCS, and 1,2,6 and 7 of the WS comes to $24.1 million on that link's estimates.

 

That's in 2008, average ticket prices. I don't know if the Cardinals' prices are above or below average, or if there's been some inflation since then. That wasn't pure profit because of the cost of running the game, but that also didn't include concession stands.

[Guest]

The link's estimates already had the player's take taken out.

 

The average owner's take (excluding the player take for required games) for Games 3 and 4 of a Division Series, 3, 4 and 5 of the LCS, and 1,2,6 and 7 of the WS comes to $24.1 million on that link's estimates.

 

That's in 2008, average ticket prices. I don't know if the Cardinals' prices are above or below average, or if there's been some inflation since then. That wasn't pure profit because of the cost of running the game, but that also didn't include concession stands.

Then Dave shouldn't have termed them gross revenues!

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Then Dave shouldn't have termed them gross revenues!

 

I dunno, I find the windfall the Cardinals get out of their ridiculously lucky run to be pretty icky.

[scarey]

I think Hamels and Greinke are the most talented of the talented 2013 FA crop.

 

 

I would put Matt Cain above both of them and Anibal Sanchez, Ervin Santana, and possibly even John Danks and Shaun Marcum above Greinke.

[Guest]

I think Hamels and Greinke are the most talented of the talented 2013 FA crop.

 

 

I would put Matt Cain above both of them and Anibal Sanchez, Ervin Santana, and possibly even John Danks and Shaun Marcum above Greinke.

?!?

 

Based on what? Wins?

[Guest]

I think Hamels and Greinke are the most talented of the talented 2013 FA crop.

 

 

I would put Matt Cain above both of them and Anibal Sanchez, Ervin Santana, and possibly even John Danks and Shaun Marcum above Greinke.

 

 

wtf

[dew1679666265]

Changed leagues. He faced a pitcher 48 times, struck them out 29 times and walked none.

 

That's a good point I hadn't thought of. Taking out all of those strikeouts drops him to a 3.8 K:BB, much more in line with the rest of his career and much closer to Wilson's 2.78 ratio this year.

 

That said, taking out all of the strikeouts probably isn't accurate, but had he faced a hitter in the 9 spot rather than a pitcher (as Wilson did), his Ks would have gone down and his BBs up. The exact ratio I'm not sure about, but it does seem likely that the K:BB comparison between the two is inflated somewhat when only looking at this year. For reference, Greinke went from 21:4 K:BB vs #9 hitters last year to 29:0 this year against pitchers. Wilson was at 26:4 against #9 hitters this season.

 

Am I wildly overestimating this?

[Sammy Sofa]

The link's estimates already had the player's take taken out.

 

The average owner's take (excluding the player take for required games) for Games 3 and 4 of a Division Series, 3, 4 and 5 of the LCS, and 1,2,6 and 7 of the WS comes to $24.1 million on that link's estimates.

 

That's in 2008, average ticket prices. I don't know if the Cardinals' prices are above or below average, or if there's been some inflation since then. That wasn't pure profit because of the cost of running the game, but that also didn't include concession stands.

 

Even subtracting the subtraction of the players' pool from that total likely doesn't leave an impressive total that's going to be a Pujols-swaying signing bonus. Just spitballing the costs of hosting these games and I think it would be optimistic to say that they'd have $14-15 million left to throw at him.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think it'd have to be more than that. Concessions have to at least balance out the operating expenses of the game, don't they? You don't need to sell a lot of $8 beers to keep the lights on and the ushers paid, I would WAG.

 

But I also think it's pretty silly to assume they'd just take that money and plow it into Pujols. They are offering him what they think he's worth, not just what they can afford.

[Sammy Sofa]

I think it'd have to be more than that. Concessions have to at least balance out the operating expenses of the game, don't they? You don't need to sell a lot of $8 beers to keep the lights on and the ushers paid, I would WAG.

 

I'd think still making $15 million IS balancing out the operating expenses.

 

But I also think it's pretty silly to assume they'd just take that money and plow it into Pujols. They are offering him what they think he's worth, not just what they can afford.

 

That too. It was a silly idea to begin with.

[davearm2]

The link's estimates already had the player's take taken out.

 

The average owner's take (excluding the player take for required games) for Games 3 and 4 of a Division Series, 3, 4 and 5 of the LCS, and 1,2,6 and 7 of the WS comes to $24.1 million on that link's estimates.

 

That's in 2008, average ticket prices. I don't know if the Cardinals' prices are above or below average, or if there's been some inflation since then. That wasn't pure profit because of the cost of running the game, but that also didn't include concession stands.

Then Dave shouldn't have termed them gross revenues!

The revenues I reported from the article are already net of the player's pool dollars, but are not net of gameday expenses (whatever those amount to).

 

As I said, start with $24M (in 2008 dollars; now it's higher),

subtract gameday expenses (ushers, electricity, etc)

add ancillary gameday revenues (concessions, parking, etc)

add indirect revenues (increased season ticket sales, sponsorships, etc)

 

The $24M number is the floor, IMO. Like Kyle said, the gameday revs should exceed the gameday expenses, leaving another net gain. Plus the follow-on revenues in 2012.

Edited October 31, 2011 by davearm2

[Sammy Sofa]

The $24M number is the floor, IMO. Like Kyle said, the gameday revs should exceed the gameday expenses, leaving another net gain. Plus the follow-on revenues in 2012.

 

That doesn't make $24 million the floor. Those revenues ultimately being anything above $1 after all is said and done would technically count as the revenues exceeding the expenses. The costs being, say, $10 million dollars would still mean that they receive around $14 million in revenue, so your floor declaration is meaningless.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The $24M number is the floor, IMO. Like Kyle said, the gameday revs should exceed the gameday expenses, leaving another net gain. Plus the follow-on revenues in 2012.

 

That doesn't make $24 million the floor. Those revenues ultimately being anything above $1 after all is said and done would technically count as the revenues exceeding the expenses. The costs being, say, $10 million dollars would still mean that they receive around $14 million in revenue, so your floor declaration is meaningless.

 

 

$24 million is *just* the gate revenue.

 

It's ($24 million + non-gate revenues) - gameday expenses.

 

There's no way that gameday expenses exceeded non-gate revenues by $10 million. Non-gate revenues have got to easily rival the gate itself.

[davearm2]

The $24M number is the floor, IMO. Like Kyle said, the gameday revs should exceed the gameday expenses, leaving another net gain. Plus the follow-on revenues in 2012.

 

That doesn't make $24 million the floor. Those revenues ultimately being anything above $1 after all is said and done would technically count as the revenues exceeding the expenses. The costs being, say, $10 million dollars would still mean that they receive around $14 million in revenue, so your floor declaration is meaningless.

Do you even bother reading?

 

START with $24M

ADJUST from 2008 to 2011 dollars

ADD for concessions etc.

SUBTRACT for ushers etc.

 

ASSUME concessions > ushers

 

Do the math: how can $24M *not* be the floor???

 

Please, give us something more than "well I would say it's no more than $14M". Show us your work.