BA's 2011 AZL Top 20 Prospects

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The list won't be out till Monday but Jim Callis offered up a hint on Twitter:

 

@jimcallisBA: Monday. Two #Cubs on the Top 20, three just missed. @jdfisch: Is the Arizona League's top prospects still dropping today? How many cubs?

 

The 2 are probably Gioskar Amaya and Marco Hernandez. I wonder who the 3 who missed the cut are. Some guesses: Neftali Rosario, Oliver Zapata, Hunter Ackerman or Dustin Geiger?

[toonsterwu]

What's the innings/AB requirement for BA's lists again? Wonder if a guy like Starling Peralta was a just missed because he didn't stay there long enough. I'd guess Rosario and Zapata as the other misses, but I can't tell from the wording if the just missed guys are due to not enough innings/AB to qualify, or if they just missed as in they were 21-25 on the list.

[Guest]

Hernandez comes in at 6 and Amaya at 9. Plus BA made the first of what will likely be many comps between those 2 and Castro/Lake from their AZL days.

 

6. MARCO HERNANDEZSS/2B, CUBS

The 2008 AZL Cubs had two highly touted 18-year-old Latin American middle infielders in Junior Lake and Starlin Castro, who split time at shortstop and ranked on our Top 20 Prospects list. That scenario repeated itself three years later, as Hernandez and Gioskar Amaya took turns at short and ranked among the best infielders in the league.

 

Hernandez is more likely to remain at shortstop than Amaya. Hernandez has a more athletic frame and good range. He also has plus arm strength but needs better accuracy on his throws.

 

A switch-hitter, Hernandez currently is better from the left side of the plate. He has good bat speed and contact skills, and he shows the ability to bunt for a hit. He should have at least gap power and has plus speed, though he's still learning how to use it on the bases.

 

9. GIOSKAR AMAYAINF, CUBS

Amaya spent as much time this year at second base and third base as at shortstop, and that may define his role moving forward. He has the glove and natural instincts to play any position but lacks the quickness and arm to play shortstop on an everyday basis.

 

There's little question about Amaya's bat, as he hit .377/.417/.510 and led the AZL with 77 hits in his first season Stateside. A solid line-drive hitter with gap power, he has strong hands and a good swing. He has above-average speed but may slow down slightly as he gets bigger.

 

Amaya is a smart, instinctive player and made great strides in learning the English language this year. He should be able to move quickly through the system.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2011/2612361.html

[soonercub]

Wow, Indians loaded up, maybe Shapiro might be a good choice for GM. They always seem to have a strong system.

 

Raisin, would it be possible to post the info on #3 Clayton Blackburn? He is grad from my son's high school and I would like to see what is said about him. He had a great season. Thanks

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Shapiro, like Epstein, is a very longshot dream candidate. The Cujs and Indians seem to have a decent relationship, but a GM job would he a demotion for him as he's their president. There IS a candidate there though....I think it's Antonelli but don't remember off the top.

 

I love how loaded the Cubs are with upside up the middle guys. So this Amaya guy can legit hit?

[idakepps]

Wow, Indians loaded up, maybe Shapiro might be a good choice for GM. They always seem to have a strong system.

 

Raisin, would it be possible to post the info on #3 Clayton Blackburn? He is grad from my son's high school and I would like to see what is said about him. He had a great season. Thanks

 

4. CLAYTON BLACKBURN RHP, GIANTS

The lone draft pick among the AZL's top 11 prospects, Blackburn was overshadowed in a deep crop of Oklahoma high school pitching talent that included two of the top seven picks in Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley and three other arms selected in the first five rounds. Most big league teams expected Blackburn to honor his commitment to the University of Oklahoma, but the Giants signed him for $150,000 after he fell to the 16th round.

 

Blackburn throws four pitches for strikes—he walked just three batters in 33 innings—and induces plenty of groundballs. From an arm slot slightly higher than three quarters, he throws his 91-93 mph fastball to both sides of the plate and spins a nice curveball. He also throws a slider and has good action and location on his changeup.

 

Though he's only 18, there's not a lot of physical projection left for Blackburn. That limits his ceiling to No. 3 starter, but he also has a high floor. "He has as good of maturity as I've seen in a professional prospect at that age," AZL Giants pitching coach Mike Caldwell said.

[Outshined_One]

Did the chat address which Cubs just missed the list?

[toonsterwu]

Chris Antonetti is the Indians GM right now. I don't think he's going anywhere. There's some talk on Shapiro only because some of the rumors/speculation suggested that he, while not forced, was sort of asked to move to President, while he wanted to stay as GM. I doubt either guy is a legitimate candidate here, but who knows.

 

______

 

Interesting comments on Marco Hernandez. I had previously heard he had a good arm, but someone, I think AzPhil, kept suggesting that his arm was average.

 

Curious if they said who missed.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

There's another guy in Cleveland I'm forgetting...I know they have some strong FO talent since Shapiro got there. I don't think the guy I'm thinking of is a legit candidate anyway since I think the Cubs want an experienced named (coughBeanecough).

[Guest]

Yeah, they did say who the 3 who just missed were - Brian Smith, Oliver Zapata and Trey Martin (who I had totally forgotten would have qualified). All Cubs-related chat questions below:

 

Mike (Chicago): Any cub pitchers that were close to making the list or at least is there any pitcher on the AZL cubs that I could get excited about?

 

Bill Mitchell: The Cub pitcher who just missed the list is Canadian southpaw Brian Smith, a 40th round pick in 2010 who looked good until he wore down late in the season. He's got a live fastball that's 90-93 and a good change-up that he uses to set up the fastball. He's still relatively inexperienced so he won't rush through the system.

 

Dan (Chicago): I was pretty suprised Cubs C Neftali Rosario wasn't in the top 20. How close was he and what kept him off?

 

Bill Mitchell: I liked Rosario and considered him for the list. He's got good power potential at the plate but needs to develop more consistency. Right now he's got a "swing at everything" approach. Like any young catcher, he needs to improve his ability to call a game but that'll come from experience.

 

Ben (Leland Grove): Had they qualified, would Sonny Gray and Kevin Matthews topped this list?

 

Bill Mitchell: I think it's safe to say that if Gray had pitched enough innings he would have been the league's top prospect, assuming no other #1 pick (such as Javier Baez) had also played enough to qualify. I don't know that Matthews would have been #1 if he had qualified, but he likely would have made the top ten.

 

Navin (Pasadena, CA): Jim Callis mentioned 3 Cubs just missed this top 20 list. Who are they and how close were they to making it? Thank you!

 

Bill Mitchell: I already mentioned left-handed pitcher Brian Smith. The other two were outfielder Oliver Zapata (great bat speed, gap to gap hitter, very fast runner) and outfielder Trey Martin. The latter is especially intriguing as an over-slot 13th round pick with plenty of natural abilities and a good feel for the game; he's still very raw, especially defensively. The classic high risk, high reward player.

 

Jack (Toronto): Do either of the Cubs MI prospects Amaya or Hernandez project for good power? Or are they more contact oriented hitters?

 

Bill Mitchell: Both are more contact type hitters. Hernandez has gotten stronger and could project as a 15 homerun type of hitter. Amaya is more of a line drive hitter with gap power.

 

Jon (Peoria): How did Hayden Simpson look in Arizona? He wasn't very good in the MWL and he seemingly wasn't any better after being demoted. Does he have any health issues or is he still recovering from having mono last year?

 

Bill Mitchell: Simpson's velocity was generally in the 80-84 range in the AZL. I didn't hear of any injury affecting him. Whether he's still suffering from the effects of last year's case of mono remains to be seen. He was not considered for the AZL prospect list.

 

Jack (Toronto): What players in the DSL are you excited to see make their US debut in the AZL next season?

 

Bill Mitchell: I don't follow DSL results as closely as resident expert Ben Badler, but I'm intrigued by Cubs third base prospect Jeimer Candelario. He'll be in instructs this fall, so maybe I'll get a sneak preview of him. Renato Nunez (Athletics 3B) is also here for instructs and I got my first look at him yesterday during workouts. But the guy who really intrigued me when I saw him working out yesterday is Athletics outfielder Shawn Duinkerk, from Aruba —- he just turned 17 and he's already on the way to being an impressive physical specimen.

 

Jack (Toronto): I know Baez and Vogelbach didn't get enough experience to qualify, but what did you hear/think about them?

 

Bill Mitchell: Baez gave me a lasting memory during the last game of the season when he hit a very hard soaring liner off the top of the batters eye at the Cubs complex. It was truly one of the most impressive hits that I witnessed at any level all season. The kid has incredibly strong hands and excellent bat speed. One scout told me that he was going to grade him as a possible future MLB all-star. He also showed the ability to make dazzling plays at shortstop while, like most young players, make too many errors on easy plays. Vogelbach came as advertised —- a big, big kid with impressive raw power, plus a real enthusiasm for the game. There will always be questions about his size and whether the weight will affect him down the road.

[CUBZ99]

Raisin - Thanks for the snippets. Sounds like we have some pretty intriguing prospects to follow next year.

 

Did Hernandez and Amaya sign for similar $$ as Castro or were they bigger $$ signings?

 

Love what they are saying about Baez's potential. It sounds like he could be the real deal. Lets just hope that he has some more patience at the plate than other recent Cubs draft picks.

 

Good to hear that Simpson is not injured, but very disappointing to see that his FB is currently 80-84.

[toonsterwu]

Off the top, and Raisin probably knows better than I do, but I think Amaya/Hernandez were both more expensive than Castro. IIRC, Castro was a 50K signing, I think.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Off the top, and Raisin probably knows better than I do, but I think Amaya/Hernandez were both more expensive than Castro. IIRC, Castro was a 50K signing, I think.

 

That it was, but I can't say I know the bonuses of the other two.

 

CR thanks for posting those chat clips.

[Guest]

Amaya and Hernandez were bigger signings than Castro (in that you actually heard a little publicity in the offseason after they signed) but they weren't the massive 6-figure signings that guys like Willson Contreras, Carlos Penalver or Jeimer Candelario were. That leads me to believe they received somewhere around $100,000.

[toonsterwu]

I didn't want to dig this up, but thought it was better to put it here than elsewhere. Anyhow, AzPhil is adamant that Marco Hernandez does not have a plus arm.

#5 Re: Cub Bats Mostly Silent at Talking Stick

*new

Submitted by Arizona Phil on Thu, 10/06/2011 - 9:28am.

 

Submitted by toonsterwu on Thu, 10/06/2011 - 12:36am.

Hope you are having fun watching the future.

 

Quick Question on Marco Hernandez - BA's write up on him for their AZL list said plus speed and plus arm (along with good range at short). On paper, that seems to suggest potential plus defense at short.

 

That said, I recall, at some point (can't seem to find it right now), you had questions about his arm and thought that he might end up at 2nd base. I'm just curious about your take on BA's write-up.

 

Also, what's your take on Marco and Jeimer's power ceilings? And is there a reason Penalver seems to be listed at short every game? I thought he was viewed as a guy who would get PT at short.

 

Oh, one final question, if I might - how did Starling Peralta's velocity and command look?

 

==========================================

 

TOONSTER: Marco Hernandez does not have a plus-arm. Arismendy Alcantara and Junior Lake have plus-arms (though not always accurate), and Darwin Barney and Starlin Castro have stronger arms, too.

 

Hernandez bounces throws to 1st base from the 5.5 hole. He doesn't have to make that long throw from 2nd base, and he has good range, and he's a good fielder, so he should be a very good 2B. I would compare him to Logan Watkins in that respect. He can play SS, and if he hits a lot and you need a SS he can play there, but ideally he would play 2B.

[Outshined_One]

I wonder if the plus arm evaluation is based on his age, rather than based on where it currently is relative to arms like Castro and Barney. Hernandez might be a prospect who could beef up his arm strength to plus level with the right conditioning regimen.

[toonsterwu]

What I'm wondering is if there are mechanical issues with Hernandez's throwing. AzPhil specifically notes throws in the ground to first, which typically is a sign of arm strength concerns, but it could also easily be mechanical issues (granted, I'm assuming it's more than just throws in the ground that is bothering AzPhil). Perhaps he's not getting over the ball enough, perhaps he has some weird motion, don't know, but the potential exists of that being a factor. This is, of course, assuming BA heard multiple reports of plus arm strength. The other possibility might be what BA noted, which somewhat ties in with mechanical issues (potentially), and that would be accuracy concerns.