Can the starting pitching be fixed for 2012?

[CubColtPacer]

I'm fine with Dempster as the number 2 for another year. If there was an upgrade, awesome. But after the poor start, Dempster's rates are fairly solid.

 

 

Id be more comfortable with Dempster as a 3rd starter.

 

The problem is, who is out there good enough to be better than Demp? Wilson maybe, but the likelihood is that Dempster will be our second best starting pitcher going into next season. And if his horrid start were really a fluke, that'd be fine.

 

CJ Wilson seems to be the best guy available, unless of course anyone out there thinks we have a shot at CC. Problem is, if we do go after CJ and Fielder, it could become a very expensive endeavor, and they may need to consider moving Z or Soriano for partial salary relief.

 

All depends on what the Ricketts are willing to spend. If the money coming off the books can be re-spent if necessary then they could easily afford both without dumping anyone.

 

I wouldn't say easily-are you keeping Ramirez in that scenario? I don't see how you can afford all 3 unless the payroll is increased.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I wasnt even thinking in terms of Ramirez. To get all 3, wed most certainly have to move some salary on Z or Soriano, or perhaps Marlon Byrds entire salary if other teams found that more attractive, but in that case, were stuck having to patch together an outfield, assuming that Brett Jackson is major league ready by that point, and again probably relying on someone like Colvin unless they got lucky with a very cheap veteran like we did Edmonds a few years ago. The upside is that string of moves would no doubt boost us right back into contention.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm assuming Aramis is given a new deal if he's keep on and they aren't using the team option. If that's the case, yes, they could afford all 3 with $60+ million dollars to spend. I really don't see Aramis and Wilson combined making more than $20-$25 million a year.

[Sammy Sofa]

I wasnt even thinking in terms of Ramirez. To get all 3, wed most certainly have to move some salary on Z or Soriano, or perhaps Marlon Byrds entire salary if other teams found that more attractive, but in that case, were stuck having to patch together an outfield, assuming that Brett Jackson is major league ready by that point, and again probably relying on someone like Colvin unless they got lucky with a very cheap veteran like we did Edmonds a few years ago. The upside is that string of moves would no doubt boost us right back into contention.

 

Explain how Wilson/Aramis/Prince will cost more than $60 million. Something like Wilson getting $15 million a year, Aramis being brought back for the team option and Prince inexplicably getting $30 million a year?

[Little Slide Rooter]

I wasnt even thinking in terms of Ramirez. To get all 3, wed most certainly have to move some salary on Z or Soriano, or perhaps Marlon Byrds entire salary if other teams found that more attractive, but in that case, were stuck having to patch together an outfield, assuming that Brett Jackson is major league ready by that point, and again probably relying on someone like Colvin unless they got lucky with a very cheap veteran like we did Edmonds a few years ago. The upside is that string of moves would no doubt boost us right back into contention.

 

Explain how Wilson/Aramis/Prince will cost more than $60 million. Something like Wilson getting $15 million a year, Aramis being brought back for the team option and Prince inexplicably getting $30 million a year?

 

What do we have coming off the books exactly?

 

Kosuke= 13.5 mil

Grabow=4.8 mil(barf)

Pena=5 mil (5 mil still due)

Bradley/Silva=not quite sure how that all worked out. 7-8 mil?

Wood=1.5 mil

 

Are there any guys like Garza, Soto, or Marshall that are due raises?

 

My guess is that Wilson, Ramirez, and Fielder would cost around 35-40 mil. Id love it if they have that money to spend, and of course they spend it. We dont need to spend anything on relief. Nothing on utility guys or backups. Certainly no backup catcher. Anything we need there is on the farm. As far as Im concerned, the afore mentioned players should be the only orders of business. I just hope they see things the same way.

[SouthSideRyan]

I wasnt even thinking in terms of Ramirez. To get all 3, wed most certainly have to move some salary on Z or Soriano, or perhaps Marlon Byrds entire salary if other teams found that more attractive, but in that case, were stuck having to patch together an outfield, assuming that Brett Jackson is major league ready by that point, and again probably relying on someone like Colvin unless they got lucky with a very cheap veteran like we did Edmonds a few years ago. The upside is that string of moves would no doubt boost us right back into contention.

 

Explain how Wilson/Aramis/Prince will cost more than $60 million. Something like Wilson getting $15 million a year, Aramis being brought back for the team option and Prince inexplicably getting $30 million a year?

 

The 60M doesn't include Garza, Soto, or Wells's arbitrations, along with at least league minimum guys to fill out the roster.

[CubColtPacer]

I wasnt even thinking in terms of Ramirez. To get all 3, wed most certainly have to move some salary on Z or Soriano, or perhaps Marlon Byrds entire salary if other teams found that more attractive, but in that case, were stuck having to patch together an outfield, assuming that Brett Jackson is major league ready by that point, and again probably relying on someone like Colvin unless they got lucky with a very cheap veteran like we did Edmonds a few years ago. The upside is that string of moves would no doubt boost us right back into contention.

 

Explain how Wilson/Aramis/Prince will cost more than $60 million. Something like Wilson getting $15 million a year, Aramis being brought back for the team option and Prince inexplicably getting $30 million a year?

 

That 60 million number doesn't count people like Garza, Soto, Baker, or Wells. The Cubs don't actually have 60 million to throw around.

[Guest]

I wasnt even thinking in terms of Ramirez. To get all 3, wed most certainly have to move some salary on Z or Soriano, or perhaps Marlon Byrds entire salary if other teams found that more attractive, but in that case, were stuck having to patch together an outfield, assuming that Brett Jackson is major league ready by that point, and again probably relying on someone like Colvin unless they got lucky with a very cheap veteran like we did Edmonds a few years ago. The upside is that string of moves would no doubt boost us right back into contention.

 

Explain how Wilson/Aramis/Prince will cost more than $60 million. Something like Wilson getting $15 million a year, Aramis being brought back for the team option and Prince inexplicably getting $30 million a year?

 

The 60M doesn't include Garza, Soto, or Wells's arbitrations, along with at least league minimum guys to fill out the roster.

 

Byrd, Marshall and Marmol have raises that tack on another 6M too.

[Fro]

http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/2012-cubs-payroll-outlook.html

 

We are already likely committed to between $100-$109 million in payroll for next year. Z/Dempster/Soriano/backloaded Pena money = $55 million alone.

 

If payroll is only $120 million it's going to be hard to have more than one of those 3

 

If it's going to be $134 again we might be able to sign 2.

 

I agree that if we kept Aram and signed Fielder/Wilson that would probably put us back into contention (assuming Dempster/Z bounce back somewhat and the defense improves), but that seems like an extension of the Hendry era instead of a plan over a few years to get into position to win a World Series. It's very critical not to blow this opportunity over the next couple years.

[SouthSideRyan]

I wasnt even thinking in terms of Ramirez. To get all 3, wed most certainly have to move some salary on Z or Soriano, or perhaps Marlon Byrds entire salary if other teams found that more attractive, but in that case, were stuck having to patch together an outfield, assuming that Brett Jackson is major league ready by that point, and again probably relying on someone like Colvin unless they got lucky with a very cheap veteran like we did Edmonds a few years ago. The upside is that string of moves would no doubt boost us right back into contention.

 

Explain how Wilson/Aramis/Prince will cost more than $60 million. Something like Wilson getting $15 million a year, Aramis being brought back for the team option and Prince inexplicably getting $30 million a year?

 

The 60M doesn't include Garza, Soto, or Wells's arbitrations, along with at least league minimum guys to fill out the roster.

 

Byrd, Marshall and Marmol have raises that tack on another 6M too.

 

I assumed everyone's working off of Cot's #s which already figure those in.

[dew1679666265]

I agree that if we kept Aram and signed Fielder/Wilson that would probably put us back into contention (assuming Dempster/Z bounce back somewhat and the defense improves), but that seems like an extension of the Hendry era instead of a plan over a few years to get into position to win a World Series. It's very critical not to blow this opportunity over the next couple years.

 

Wilson was worth 4.4 WAR last season (his first as a starter) and has been worth 3.8 so far this year. Fielder was worth 6.4 WAR two years ago, just 3.4 last year, but 3.4 already to this point this year. Both are better players at their respective positions than we signed at any point during the Hendry era. Wilson will be 32 next season, but isn't likely to sign more than a 3-4 year deal and he's been a reliever most of his career - meaning he's got much less mileage on his arm than his age would indicate - and Fielder will only be 28 next year.

 

I wouldn't give Wilson more than $13-15 a year and Fielder no more than $25-27 a year, but both would be good signings.

[dew1679666265]

Cot's has us at 70.6 million next year if you exclude the Ramirez buyout they're factoring in. That includes contracts for Soriano, Z, Dempster, Byrd, Marmol, and Marshall and the $2 million still owed to Silva. They also have Garza, Soto, Baker, Hill, DeWitt and Wells as arbitration eligible.

 

If payroll holds steady, that gives us $64 million minus the arbitration guys and a potential Ramirez contract.

[SouthSideRyan]

Cot's has us at 70.6 million next year if you exclude the Ramirez buyout they're factoring in. That includes contracts for Soriano, Z, Dempster, Byrd, Marmol, and Marshall and the $2 million still owed to Silva. They also have Garza, Soto, Baker, Hill, DeWitt and Wells as arbitration eligible.

 

If payroll holds steady, that gives us $64 million minus the arbitration guys and a potential Ramirez contract.

 

It doesn't include the money still owed Pena

[dew1679666265]

Cot's has us at 70.6 million next year if you exclude the Ramirez buyout they're factoring in. That includes contracts for Soriano, Z, Dempster, Byrd, Marmol, and Marshall and the $2 million still owed to Silva. They also have Garza, Soto, Baker, Hill, DeWitt and Wells as arbitration eligible.

 

If payroll holds steady, that gives us $64 million minus the arbitration guys and a potential Ramirez contract.

 

It doesn't include the money still owed Pena

 

True, but that may or may not be factored into next year's payroll.

[Guest]

The 60M doesn't include Garza, Soto, or Wells's arbitrations, along with at least league minimum guys to fill out the roster.

 

Byrd, Marshall and Marmol have raises that tack on another 6M too.

 

I assumed everyone's working off of Cot's #s which already figure those in.

 

I wasn't sure if that 60M came from counting up the salaries or counting down the salary we're shedding.

[Sammy Sofa]

Yeah, I'm confused. I thought the $60 million figure was adjusted for all of next year's projected changes.

[SouthSideRyan]

Yeah, I'm confused. I thought the $60 million figure was adjusted for all of next year's projected changes.

 

All of next year's guaranteed changes. Technically, the arbitration awards aren't guaranteed, but even the Cubs aren't dumb enough to non-tender Garza and Soto.

[MSG T]

Yeah, I'm confused. I thought the $60 million figure was adjusted for all of next year's projected changes.

 

All of next year's guaranteed changes. Technically, the arbitration awards aren't guaranteed, but even the Cubs aren't dumb enough to non-tender Garza and Soto.

 

 

I won't guarantee I'm reading it right, but it appears that the $72 mil covers Soriano, Z, Dempster, Byrd, Marmol, Marshall, $2 mil to Silva and Aramis' buyout. That leaves Garza, Soto, Baker, Hill, Wells and DeWitt as Arb-eligible and six pre-arb guys.

 

They appear to have seven guys either becoming FA or have some sort of option year in Aramis, Kosuke, Pena, Wood, Grabow, Samardzija and Johnson.

 

So what will it take to bump up the arb and pre-arb guys? Would $10 mil total do it? I honestly don't know what a good guess would be. If $10 mil is enough, that leaves roughly $52 mil to spend, if they leave payroll the same. With seven spots to fill, at least 2-3 would be in-house options, 2-3 would be cheaper FA options and the rest big-name FA. Assuming nothing else happens (ie. no one is traded) it leaves this-

 

FA - possible replacement (spot on 25 man, not necessarily spot on the field)

Kosuke - B Jackson

Aramis - FA?

Pena - Pujols/Fielder?

Wood - In-house/FA/re-sign

Grabow - In-house/FA

Samardzija - In-house/FA

Johson - In-house

 

A couple of those will be filled in house, just not sure by who, a couple more could be. I'd say the two most likely to be filled by bigger names is Aramis and Pena. So, the question is, given who is coming back, plus the money available, who can they get that will turn this around next year? Does Wells and Cashner recover enough to fix the starting staff? Will (as an example) Fielder/Reyes provide enough of a bump to the offense? Maybe Aramis/Kosuke get re-signed to cheaper contracts.

 

As always, this can all change as we get through the trade deadline and the waiver deadline in Aug.

[dew1679666265]

Assuming Pujols/Fielder are the targets to fill first base, it appears third base and starting pitcher are the other two spots that could be filled by a FA of significance. If we can only afford a big money guy at one of those two spots, which would people on here prefer?

 

Scenario 1: Pujols/Fielder at 1B, Aramis at 3B, Wells in rotation

Scenario 2: Pujols/Fielder at 1B, Baker/Flaherty platoon at 3B, Wilson in rotation

[Sammy Sofa]

Scenario 2.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Assuming Pujols/Fielder are the targets to fill first base, it appears third base and starting pitcher are the other two spots that could be filled by a FA of significance. If we can only afford a big money guy at one of those two spots, which would people on here prefer?

 

Scenario 1: Pujols/Fielder at 1B, Aramis at 3B, Wells in rotation

Scenario 2: Pujols/Fielder at 1B, Baker/Flaherty platoon at 3B, Wilson in rotation

 

I think I might be inclined to go with scenerio 1, but Id still like to see them go after a low risk/high reward pitcher like Sheets or Kazmir, and theres always the hope that McNutt can step in. Maybe even Jay Jackson, but hope is dwindling there.

[CubColtPacer]

Yeah, I'm confused. I thought the $60 million figure was adjusted for all of next year's projected changes.

 

All of next year's guaranteed changes. Technically, the arbitration awards aren't guaranteed, but even the Cubs aren't dumb enough to non-tender Garza and Soto.

 

 

I won't guarantee I'm reading it right, but it appears that the $72 mil covers Soriano, Z, Dempster, Byrd, Marmol, Marshall, $2 mil to Silva and Aramis' buyout. That leaves Garza, Soto, Baker, Hill, Wells and DeWitt as Arb-eligible and six pre-arb guys.

 

They appear to have seven guys either becoming FA or have some sort of option year in Aramis, Kosuke, Pena, Wood, Grabow, Samardzija and Johnson.

 

So what will it take to bump up the arb and pre-arb guys? Would $10 mil total do it? I honestly don't know what a good guess would be. If $10 mil is enough, that leaves roughly $52 mil to spend, if they leave payroll the same. With seven spots to fill, at least 2-3 would be in-house options, 2-3 would be cheaper FA options and the rest big-name FA. Assuming nothing else happens (ie. no one is traded) it leaves this-

 

FA - possible replacement (spot on 25 man, not necessarily spot on the field)

Kosuke - B Jackson

Aramis - FA?

Pena - Pujols/Fielder?

Wood - In-house/FA/re-sign

Grabow - In-house/FA

Samardzija - In-house/FA

Johson - In-house

 

A couple of those will be filled in house, just not sure by who, a couple more could be. I'd say the two most likely to be filled by bigger names is Aramis and Pena. So, the question is, given who is coming back, plus the money available, who can they get that will turn this around next year? Does Wells and Cashner recover enough to fix the starting staff? Will (as an example) Fielder/Reyes provide enough of a bump to the offense? Maybe Aramis/Kosuke get re-signed to cheaper contracts.

 

As always, this can all change as we get through the trade deadline and the waiver deadline in Aug.

 

The arb and pre-arb players made 14.479 million this year. Estimating arbitration awards is hard, but I would be surprised if that didn't go up by at least 5-6 million next year if the Cubs don't non-tender/trade anyone. So there's probably more in the range of 40-43 million to spend, and that doesn't include Aramis's 2 million dollar buyout if the Cubs choose not to re-sign him (or Pena's 5 million depending on if the Cubs are counting that for the 2012 payroll).

[dew1679666265]

Scenario 2.

 

I'm torn. On one hand, I've not lost all faith in Wells yet and there's a nagging concern I have that Wilson won't be worth the potential contract he may get. At the same time, Aramis' recent injuries have me a tad concerned about him going forward, but I'm not sure if I'm overrating what Flaherty could do with the bat as a third baseman.

 

I would probably tend toward scenario 2 as well, though, since offense at third base is down so much and the threshold for a Baker/Flaherty platoon to be average could be so low.

[dew1679666265]

I think I might be inclined to go with scenerio 1, but Id still like to see them go after a low risk/high reward pitcher like Sheets or Kazmir, and theres always the hope that McNutt can step in. Maybe even Jay Jackson, but hope is dwindling there.

 

My biggest concern with scenario 1 is that (and I probably should have mentioned this in my original post) Cashner would be in the rotation in either scenario. As much as I like Cashner, we need to have some depth prepared behind him. Going with Wells, a hail mary like Sheets or Kazmir, or a rookie like McNutt would give us the potential for two holes in the rotation and no depth, whereas scenario 2 would give us only the potential for one hole in the rotation and we'd have McNutt and maybe Whitenack (depending on his rehab) as depth behind Cashner.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I think I might be inclined to go with scenerio 1, but Id still like to see them go after a low risk/high reward pitcher like Sheets or Kazmir, and theres always the hope that McNutt can step in. Maybe even Jay Jackson, but hope is dwindling there.

 

My biggest concern with scenario 1 is that (and I probably should have mentioned this in my original post) Cashner would be in the rotation in either scenario. As much as I like Cashner, we need to have some depth prepared behind him. Going with Wells, a hail mary like Sheets or Kazmir, or a rookie like McNutt would give us the potential for two holes in the rotation and no depth, whereas scenario 2 would give us only the potential for one hole in the rotation and we'd have McNutt and maybe Whitenack (depending on his rehab) as depth behind Cashner.

 

Looking at the '12 FA list, there are some decent guys between Wilson and whatever we can call up or more veteran junkballers like Bush, Lopez, and Ortiz. Kyle Davis, Jeff Francis, and Joel Pinearo are a few guys that would not be nearly as good as Wilson or even Edwin Jackson, but they should be cheaper and probably wouldnt be the disasters weve cycled through this year. Theyd probably be more 4 starters than 2-3 starters, but if we can get good production out of Garza, Demp, and Z, a 4 starter could work for us, and hope for the best out of Cashner, Wells, McNutt or whoever inhabits the 5 spot.