2012 Draft Discussion

[Guest]

Correa draws comparisons to Troy Tulowitzki, whom Seattle was set to take in this slot seven years ago before making a late switch to . . . Jeff Clement.

 

ouch

 

Also passed on Ryan Zimmerman and Ryan Bruan.

I'd find it funny if they choose to go with Zunino.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Honestly, I'd never heard of him. I looked him up and my guess is he's a guy that goes to college. Needs to add weight and some velo too. Very projectsble with his build, but I'm not sure he's even considered a top 100 high school righty. So if he's considered signable, I guess he could go somewhere between round 6-10.

 

I actually thought he was reminicent of Ben Wells. Big bodied HS arm with long arms, the ability to spin the breaking ball, and a fastball with alot of movement. Someone a team could really mold into a mid rotation guy.

[TheDude]

Kieth Law put out his updated 100 and makes the following note on Appel (at 6):

 

Analysis: For various small reasons, industry sentiment on Appel seems to have cooled slightly, and I don't think it's a coincidence that it started the week after he threw 149 pitches against Oregon on April 13.

Previous ranking: 3 | 3

 

As others have pointed out, Appel is still showing at 1 on other analysts mocks.

[Guest]

Uh oh:

 

@keithlaw: Not hearing good things from Kyle Zimmer's outing tonight

[Tryptamine]

Uh oh:

 

@keithlaw: Not hearing good things from Kyle Zimmer's outing tonight

 

Not a problem in my eyes, easily my least favorite of the usual top 10.

[Guest]

Uh oh:

 

@keithlaw: Not hearing good things from Kyle Zimmer's outing tonight

 

Not a problem in my eyes, easily my least favorite of the usual top 10.

 

If there is a velocity/injury concern with Zimmer, that's definitely a problem for the Cubs because that's one fewer top-level guy available at #6 (whether it's Zimmer or another prospect because Zimmer already went in the top 5).

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Just reading through this thread Zimmer's velocity has fluctuated more than any other of the top guys. He's got a good arm, there's no doubt, but a quick rise with inconsistent velocity reports plants some doubts. Gausman and Appel are more well scouted and for the most part have held up. I might even lik Wacha more, maybe.

 

That said I prefer he keeps his stock high and someone either overdrafts him or the Cubs pass on draft night.

[davell]

With the emergence of Correa, Almora, and Fried, even if Giolito still has questions, we'll have guys there for us I'm fine with.

[Guest]

Appel and Gausman were both dynamite tonight.

 

Jed Hoyer took in Appel's performance.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Complete game five hitter with 11 K's for Guasman against disappointing but talented Vanderbilt.

 

Didn't did Appel's line but his game was against Washington State IIRC.

[davell]

Uh oh:

 

@keithlaw: Not hearing good things from Kyle Zimmer's outing tonight

 

Zimmer's line against Santa Clara last night: 7IP 6H 1R 1ER 2W 11K......Of course, when asked about it, Law said it's not about the box score. Still, he couldn't have been THAT bad, to put up a line like that at least. My guess is a slight velo drop or something.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Any velocity drop is significant because he's yet to string a few (say random number...5) starts in a row with the same velocity. No bueno IMO....

[davell]

Any velocity drop is significant because he's yet to string a few (say random number...5) starts in a row with the same velocity. No bueno IMO....

 

 

Good point. That said, we don't even know that's what Law was talking about. Personally, if he's sitting 92-94 instead of 94-96, I wouldn't make a big deal about it. If it's more of a substantial drop, of course it's alarming then. His only drop this year, if I remember correctly WAS a little more pronounced of a drop, but could have just been his dead arm period. Could be wrong though.

[El Duderino]

Didn't did Appel's line but his game was against Washington State IIRC.

 

8 innings, 2 runs, 6 hits, 10 K, 1 bb

[Guest]

Any velocity drop is significant because he's yet to string a few (say random number...5) starts in a row with the same velocity. No bueno IMO....

 

 

Good point. That said, we don't even know that's what Law was talking about. Personally, if he's sitting 92-94 instead of 94-96, I wouldn't make a big deal about it. If it's more of a substantial drop, of course it's alarming then. His only drop this year, if I remember correctly WAS a little more pronounced of a drop, but could have just been his dead arm period. Could be wrong though.

 

Yeah, his one drop was down to 89-92 in early April (which was his velocity from last year). Since he bounced back quickly from that one, the consensus is that was dead arm. One thing to note, Zimmer missed his start last weekend due to a hamstring injury - that could play into any velocity drop last night.

[davell]

I don't know about you guys, but I change my mind constantly on who I want at 6. And I don't think there is a single player, other than Buxton(sorry Tim) that's guaranteed to be off the board when we pick. I think I could even be happy with some guys who we probably aren't looking at, at 6. Stroman, Shaffer, Hawkins, McCullers, and Gallo. My guess is we get one of the big 3 pitchers though. A healthy Giolito would almost definitely be my top choice.

[Guest]

I don't know about you guys, but I change my mind constantly on who I want at 6. And I don't think there is a single player, other than Buxton(sorry Tim) that's guaranteed to be off the board when we pick. I think I could even be happy with some guys who we probably aren't looking at, at 6. Stroman, Shaffer, Hawkins, McCullers, and Gallo. My guess is we get one of the big 3 pitchers though. A healthy Giolito would almost definitely be my top choice.

 

I have no interest in McCullers given how unsignable he's expected to be.

 

Gallo has massive contact issues, I have little interest in him too.

[iowahawkeyes89]

I think Max Fried is the high upside kind of pitching prospect the Cubs lack right now.

 

He has as much projection as any hs arm in the draft already throws 92-93 at 170 pounds. Plus curve, and solid change.

 

Sign me up

[davell]

I don't know about you guys, but I change my mind constantly on who I want at 6. And I don't think there is a single player, other than Buxton(sorry Tim) that's guaranteed to be off the board when we pick. I think I could even be happy with some guys who we probably aren't looking at, at 6. Stroman, Shaffer, Hawkins, McCullers, and Gallo. My guess is we get one of the big 3 pitchers though. A healthy Giolito would almost definitely be my top choice.

 

I have no interest in McCullers given how unsignable he's expected to be.

 

Gallo has massive contact issues, I have little interest in him too.

Would McCullers be unsignable at 6 though? That's a huge risk on his part, with this damn CBA. He's got flaws, but if we thought of him as a starter, he's probably got as good of an arm as anyone in the draft. Gallo has the Ryan Harvey bust factor obviously, but he's got such power, I could at least reason out the upside possibly. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying I want ANY of this group, just saying I could make myself be happy, based on potential upside.

[davell]

One potential strategy though could be try to negotiate a below slot deal with a Stroman or Shaffer, to give us extra cash to spend later on. Of course, the same strategy can be done later on as well, without us missing out on the top talent we can get.

[Guest]

One potential strategy though could be try to negotiate a below slot deal with a Stroman or Shaffer, to give us extra cash to spend later on. Of course, the same strategy can be done later on as well, without us missing out on the top talent we can get.

 

That's a horrible strategy when you have a top-10 pick; but an intriguing idea with one of the sandwich picks.

[davell]

One potential strategy though could be try to negotiate a below slot deal with a Stroman or Shaffer, to give us extra cash to spend later on. Of course, the same strategy can be done later on as well, without us missing out on the top talent we can get.

 

That's a horrible strategy when you have a top-10 pick; but an intriguing idea with one of the sandwich picks.

You'd really have to play it by feel. My guess is this year, there's going to be a hell of a lot of prenegotiated deals as it is. But saving 500K or so on a early pick and maybe 200K on a 4th or 5th rounder could net us one extra big bonus guy, especially if we also use our allowed overage and pay the monetary penalty.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I like Stroman alot. Those other guys would be real wtf picks.

[davell]

One potential strategy though could be try to negotiate a below slot deal with a Stroman or Shaffer, to give us extra cash to spend later on. Of course, the same strategy can be done later on as well, without us missing out on the top talent we can get.

 

That's a horrible strategy when you have a top-10 pick; but an intriguing idea with one of the sandwich picks.

With the way everything has changed though, maybe you could even get by with getting Fried or Almora as a slight below slot signing. If you know for sure Fried isn't getting picked till 11, for instance, maybe you could get him at 8th pick slot? I guess it all comes down to who truly has the leverage, but with this CBA, I think agents are going to have to tell their clients that the gravy train is over and if you want to be a pro, the quicker you get started, the less risk you're taking. An injury is going to kill off some of these kids value and it sucks. Giolito could very well be the first example, but I guess we'll see on him.

[Guest]

Buxton or Buxt.