Minor League Discussion & Boxes 6-6-11

[Outshined_One]

Box Scores

 

Iowa lost 3-1 Box Score

 

RF F. Perez 0/4, K

DH B. Scales 2/4

1B B. LaHair 0/4, 2 K

C W. Castillo 1/4, R, 2B (3), K

3B S. Moore 0/4

2B M. Smith 0/3, BB, 2 K, CS (1)

LF T. Wright 1/3, RBI, 2B (2)

CF M. Camp 1/3, 2B (8)

SP J. Jackson 5 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 6-5 GO-FO

RP M. Carrillo 2.2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, HR, 3-4 GO-FO

RP S. Maine 1.1 perfect, 1 K, 0-2 GO-FO

 

Tennessee lost 4-2 Box Score

 

CF B. Jackson 0/4, RBI, 2 K

2B M. Gonzalez 2/4, SB (3)

LF/RF R. Flaherty 0/4, K

1B R. Ridling 0/4, K

C S. Clevenger 0/3

3B J. Vitters 1/2, BB, R

RF N. Perez 0/2, K

PH/LF N. Samson 1/1, R, 2B (10)

SS J. Lake 0/3, RBI

SP C. Rusin 6 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, WP, HBP, 11-3 GO-FO

RP K. Smit 2 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HR, 2-2 GO-FO

RP R. Searle 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K, 2-0 GO-FO

 

Daytona won 10-9 Box Score

 

LF E. Crawford 2/4, BB, R, RBI

2B M. Cerda 1/3, 2 BB, 2 R, RBI, 2B (12), K

CF JH Ha 2/5, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR (7)

1B J. Bour 1/4, BB, R, 2 RBI, HR (15), 2 K, E (7, throw)

RF M. Burgess 1/4, BB, 2 R, 2 K

C M. Brenly 1/4, RBI, K

DH R. Silva 2/4

SS L. Watkins 1/4, R, 2B (4), 3 K

SP J. Lorick 5 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HR, WP, HBP 9-5 GO-FO

RP J. Serrano 2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 0-3 GO-FO

RP F. Batista 2 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 1 K, HR, 2-2 GO-FO

 

Peoria with an off day.

 

DSL Cubs 1 & DSL Cubs 2 suspended

 

OVERALL: 1-2

[Guest]

Probable Starters

 

Iowa: RHP Jay Jackson (2-4, 6.47 ERA, 40.1 IP, 17 K, 16 BB)

Tennessee: LHP Chris Rusin (2-1, 4.42 ERA, 53 IP, 34 K, 11 BB)

Daytona: LHP Jeff Lorick (4-1, 3.75 ERA, 48 IP, 28 K, 17 BB)

[Guest]

HR #15 for Bour.

 

BB #7 for Vitters.

[Guancous]

How many HRs will it take to get Bour in the top 100? 38?

[TruffleShuffle]

someone tell logan watkins that guys with no power should not [expletive] strike out almost once a game.

 

jae-hoon ha, who unlike watkins is a pretty good player, hit his 7th home run.

[StarlinOnYou]

I just don't get how Vitters can have such insane bat speed and make a tons of contact like he does -- yet still put up such a poor average.

 

Frustrating..

[RammyFanny]

Quick question that I should know already, but what's up with Reggie Golden this year? Can't find any stats.

[TruffleShuffle]

Quick question that I should know already, but what's up with Reggie Golden this year? Can't find any stats.

 

showed up fat, isn't playing full season ball

[StarlinOnYou]

Quick question that I should know already, but what's up with Reggie Golden this year? Can't find any stats.

 

showed up fat, isn't playing full season ball

 

Awesome.

 

And wow BJax has gone in the tank after that great start.. Hitting .257 now. Still has a good OPS.

[RammyFanny]

Quick question that I should know already, but what's up with Reggie Golden this year? Can't find any stats.

 

showed up fat, isn't playing full season ball

Yep, that rings a bell. Must have forgot.

[RammyFanny]

Random: Hak Ju Lee is hitting .350 with an OPS over .900 in high A-ball with TB. He's going to be a good one.

[Tryptamine]

Random: Hak Ju Lee is hitting .350 with an OPS over .900 in high A-ball with TB. He's going to be a good one.

 

He was the prospect I was most upset about losing. I had envisioned a middle infield of Lee and Castro for the next decade.

[questionmarkgrace]

Random: Hak Ju Lee is hitting .350 with an OPS over .900 in high A-ball with TB. He's going to be a good one.

 

I still think his comp is Alcides Escobar. But he has shown way more power this season and if thats for real, then we definitely lost a good one.

[toonsterwu]

After that red hot April, Hak-Ju has come back more towards the type of offensive performance people expected. He had a May line of .307/.378/.412. Still solid, and if the glve steadies, a very intriguing SS prospect, but pales in comparison to those April numbers.

[Tryptamine]

Random: Hak Ju Lee is hitting .350 with an OPS over .900 in high A-ball with TB. He's going to be a good one.

 

I still think his comp is Alcides Escobar. But he has shown way more power this season and if thats for real, then we definitely lost a good one.

 

Why Escobar? Thus far Lee has proven to be a significantly better offensive player with significantly better plate discipline. Not to mention that he's been a more efficient base stealer so far.

[Scotti]

Random: Hak Ju Lee is hitting .350 with an OPS over .900 in high A-ball with TB. He's going to be a good one.

 

He was the prospect I was most upset about losing. I had envisioned a middle infield of Lee and Castro for the next decade.

 

You need to give up talent to get talent--and Garza is a legit talent--but three top guys (and assorted whatnots) is too much. Archer and one other top guy I could have dealt with. Both Lee and Guyer (I believe in Guyer) hurt too much.

[Scotti]

After that red hot April, Hak-Ju has come back more towards the type of offensive performance people expected. He had a May line of .307/.378/.412. Still solid, and if the glve steadies, a very intriguing SS prospect, but pales in comparison to those April numbers.

 

After five games in June he's .333/.500/.444/.944. Most people didn't expect that. If .307/.378/.412/.790 is low tide for him in the first half...

 

Another stat of note on Lee is that he has 41 R's in 45 games. For context that'd be 148 over 162 games. For his career--in over 1,000 PA--he's .309/.381/.398/.779 and he is a 20 y/o (all season) in High A who skipped Rookie Ball.

 

While no one is going to hit .451/.533/.686/1.220 over a full season, when a top prospect does so for any period you have to sit up and take notice and give him credit. This is the same guy who hit .330/.399/.420/.819 as a skinny 18 y/o in Boise. Just like you don't "luck" into scoring a perfect 2400 on the SAT you don't "luck" into hitting .451/.533/.686/1.220.

 

He's a SS with a plus arm, plus, plus speed and the ability to get on base who has succeeded while being young for his league all the while. There probably aren't 20 prospects in all of baseball that I'd take over that.

[Outshined_One]

Random: Hak Ju Lee is hitting .350 with an OPS over .900 in high A-ball with TB. He's going to be a good one.

 

He was the prospect I was most upset about losing. I had envisioned a middle infield of Lee and Castro for the next decade.

 

You need to give up talent to get talent--and Garza is a legit talent--but three top guys (and assorted whatnots) is too much. Archer and one other top guy I could have dealt with. Both Lee and Guyer (I believe in Guyer) hurt too much.

 

Garza's been one of the best pitchers in the NL this year, leading in K/9 and FIP while putting up very good numbers in HR/9, xFIP, and WAR. I can understand wanting to develop prospects, but the Cubs got a great deal on a young guy they'll have under team control for the foreseeable future.

 

Plus, regarding Archer...I'm really beginning to wonder how much we overrated him last year. He put up fantastic numbers in 72+ IP, showing great control, but he slipped in Tennessee. His strikeout and HR numbers were good, but his control issues creeped back into the picture. His walk and HR numbers have regressed substantially this year. Perhaps the Cubs knew this past offseason was the best time to sell high on him?

[Scotti]

Random: Hak Ju Lee is hitting .350 with an OPS over .900 in high A-ball with TB. He's going to be a good one.

 

He was the prospect I was most upset about losing. I had envisioned a middle infield of Lee and Castro for the next decade.

 

You need to give up talent to get talent--and Garza is a legit talent--but three top guys (and assorted whatnots) is too much. Archer and one other top guy I could have dealt with. Both Lee and Guyer (I believe in Guyer) hurt too much.

 

Garza's been one of the best pitchers in the NL this year, leading in K/9 and FIP while putting up very good numbers in HR/9, xFIP, and WAR. I can understand wanting to develop prospects, but the Cubs got a great deal on a young guy they'll have under team control for the foreseeable future.

 

Again, I disagree on the "great" part of that deal. That's subjective. The Cubs people really believe in Garza and they have him under control/arbitration for 3 years. One of those years is 2011 and, thus far, that year has been wasted. Those 3 years also come at the cost of 6 years if one prospect makes it, 12 years if two make it and 18 if all three make it. I doubt all three make but the likelihood of at least one of them making a significant mark is rather high, IMO.

 

Plus, regarding Archer...I'm really beginning to wonder how much we overrated him last year. He put up fantastic numbers in 72+ IP, showing great control, but he slipped in Tennessee. His strikeout and HR numbers were good, but his control issues creeped back into the picture. His walk and HR numbers have regressed substantially this year. Perhaps the Cubs knew this past offseason was the best time to sell high on him?

 

As I said, it takes talent to get talent and Garza is clearly talented. It generally doesn't take 3 of your top 6-7 prospects to get one guy. While I was never that high on Archer, I was/am high on Lee and Guyer. That said, it isn't that walks that are hurting Archer. The walks are at/near his career norms--career walk norms that he has excelled at for much of two years. But his hits per 9 are goofy high and killing him. He's gone from less than 7 hits per 9 (over a three year stretch) to 12.0 hits per 9 this year. He's also gone from 6 HR in 251.1 Cub innings to 6 HR in 52.2 Tampa innings (and Craig HATES that). So, he's getting hit AND hit hard. I'm sure some Tampa fan has figured out his BABIP but he's just plain old getting hit.

 

Parenthetically, if he had gone from Tampa with that stellar record over two seasons to the Cubs, this place would be ablaze with how the Cub minor league development staff sucks. But he was a marginal prospect for CLE, turned into a top guy for us and now he loses it for Tampa... Maybe the Cubs do know how to... Naw, never mind.

 

Reportedly, he was the guy that was holding the trade back. Hendry didn't want to include Archer in the deal and Tampa was holding out until he was included. Trade would have looked worse if McNutt was the other guy...

 

As to the other guys, we touched on Lee. Lee's ceiling is, roughly, Furcal in his prime if not higher. Lee also has a pretty high floor. The speed and arm are already there and scouts like his glove and actions at SS. He's batted .330 in his first pro year and he's batting .350 into June in his third. He takes walks and scores runs. He has a chance to have four plus to plus, plus tools and he's only 20 in A+ ball.

 

Guyer has hit the CRAP out the the ball since midway through the 2009 season (Daytona, short stint at Tenn, Tenn in 2010 and Tampa and AAA this season). I don't have the late season call-up numbers from Tenn in 2009 but through all of the other stops (817 AB) he's hit .340/*.395 /.537/.932 (68 2B, 9 3B, 25 HR, 65 BB <7.3%>, 127 K <15.5%>, 62 SB, 8 CS <88.6%>).

 

Prorated over 600 AB that would be 204 Hits, 49 2B, 7 3B, 18 HR, 48 BB, 93 K, 46 SB, 6 CS. If he were still with the Cubs he'd be playing in LF instead of the Ghidorah monster of Snyder, Montanez and Colvin. That is if he wasn't already playing in center instead of Eddie Gaedel.

 

The issue of age comes up with Guyer but he spent his draft year in Mesa/Boise, his first full year in Peoria, the next year the Cubs tried to jump him past Daytona and he struggled but hit very well when he DID go to Daytona (and he hit well when he finished up that year at AA for the last week or two), last year he was exceptional at AA and this year he has been doing very well at AAA. So, he's been a stop per level guy who started at Boise (the level designed for first-year college players). The fact is that he has a January birth date so he's older than the vast majority of his classmates. I have a mid-November birth date and I was younger than most of my classmates. If his birth date was 29 days earlier he would have been in an earlier grade and, hence, a "year" younger.

 

Garza has talent. You have to give to get. Again, I get that. But the price paid was the price of a no-doubt-about-it guy at the trading deadline when you're in the hunt. If just one of those guys (Lee, Guyer, Archer) pans out then you're down three years to six. Finally, and trust me on this, I'm a Jim Hendry fan. I just think he gave up too much. Sometimes you just walk away from a deal. The two times that he didn't walk away really stick out like sore thumbs (Pierre and, IMO, Garza). With both of those deals "win-win or no deal" wasn't in the forefront of his mind.