How will the Red Sox do this year?

[LACubsGuy]

I know that everyone in the universe has the Phillies and Red Sox picked to win the NL and AL in 2011, but, just to play devil’s advocate….are the Red Sox really that much improved?

 

Before you tell me how out of my mind I am, hear me out…

 

1. Sure, they got Adrian Gonzalez, but, something no one seems to be talking about is that they essentially replaced Kevin Youkilis and Adrian Beltre with Youkilis and AGon, which could be a wash. In fact it’s almost as if they HAD to get a player of AGon’s caliber to keep pace. Sure, it’s unlikely that keeping Beltre wouldn’t necessarily be the right move because he won’t put those numbers up again, but, isn't it realistic to assume the corner IF from 2010 could have similar production to 2011? To the naked eye that looks like a huge upgrade, but, between the two corner infielders in 2010 they hit nearly 50 HRs, a combined average of .314, and 164 RBI. Given AGon’s offseason surgery and the fact that Youkilis will be playing out of position, can it realistically be expected that the two are able to be going to out produce those numbers AND be as sharp defensively? I know a lot of people think that AGon could probably hit 50 by himself at Fenway, but, keep in mind he has never hit more than 40 in a season and now he’s moving to the pitching rich AL East. Again, this tandem might be similar to what corner spots produced in 2010, but, is it realistic to expect the 2011 corner infielders to out produce those numbers by that much?

 

2. JD Drew and David Ortiz are starting to hit their declining years. They both had strong years in 2010, but, Ortiz had a career high 145 strike outs and Drew had one of the lowest OPS of his career. As both of these guys start to get into the twilight of their careers, the Red Sox could be in trouble if they’re relying on these two to produce at the elite level they are used to.

 

3. Beckett, Lackey, and Matsuzaka. I think Buchholz and Lester have really bright futures, but, the other 3 guys had pretty poor seasons in 2010. Beckett and Daisuke are pretty consistently an injury risk and have been trending downwards. Lackey did get to 200+ innings for the first time since 2007 but also had his highest era since 2004.

 

4. Papelbon’s blown saves and Pedroia’s health. 8 blown saves in 2010 and only 75 games played respectively. Is this a trend for these guys or just off years?

 

I do think Crawford is an obvious upgrade in Left Field and this team COULD be really good, but, I don’t know if I’m ready to hand the world to them like everyone else seems to be. I think just like any team, there are still a bunch of "ifs" with these guys that I don’t hear much about in the media.

 

Thoughts?

[UMFan83]

*Waits for some smartass to start a mocking "How will the Royals do this year" thread*

 

Welcome to the board BTW

[javy knows my name]

1. Sure, they got Adrian Gonzalez, but, something no one seems to be talking about is that they essentially replaced Kevin Youkilis and Adrian Beltre with Youkilis and AGon, which could be a wash. In fact it’s almost as if they HAD to get a player of AGon’s caliber to keep pace. Sure, it’s unlikely that keeping Beltre wouldn’t necessarily be the right move because he won’t put those numbers up again, but, isn't it realistic to assume the corner IF from 2010 could have similar production to 2011? To the naked eye that looks like a huge upgrade, but, between the two corner infielders in 2010 they hit nearly 50 HRs, a combined average of .314, and 164 RBI. Given AGon’s offseason surgery and the fact that Youkilis will be playing out of position, can it realistically be expected that the two are able to be going to out produce those numbers AND be as sharp defensively? I know a lot of people think that AGon could probably hit 50 by himself at Fenway, but, keep in mind he has never hit more than 40 in a season and now he’s moving to the pitching rich AL East. Again, this tandem might be similar to what corner spots produced in 2010, but, is it realistic to expect the 2011 corner infielders to out produce those numbers by that much?

 

Welcome to the board. First off, I think you're greatly overvaluing Beltre. I'm not sure how good Youkillis is defensively at third (though my guess is above average), but his offense is right on a par with Beltre's, and AGon is way better than both of them. The drop-off on first base defense is pretty insignificant as well.

 

AGon may have never hit 40 playing half his games in cavernous Petro, but I think he's just about a lock to do it at Fenway. And pitching-rich AL East? I'll need some examples, because I don't see it. I think the Red Sox outscore everybody next year. The Rays are on the precipice of a serious decline, and I don't like where the Yankees are at all. I think the Sox take the division by 5-10 games, honestly.

[Guest]

I don't think you can just assume everyone that wasn't so good last year will be not so good again this year. Ellsbury will be healthy and between Crawford and Pedroia, should give Gonzalez a lot of RBI opportunities this year. With those 3, predicting 150+ RBI out of Gonzalez wouldn't be that much of a stretch. The rest of the line up certainly has question marks, and I'd rather have a handful of team's starting rotations over Boston's, but they should be a threat in the very tough AL East.

[17 Seconds]

i think people have a lot of misconceptions about how good the red sox were last year. they didn't make the playoffs, so people talk like they sucked or something.

 

the red sox had a run differential of +74 last year and won 89 games in a completely stacked division. that was also despite bad years from beckett and lackey and less than a half a season played from pedroia.

[Clem Fandango]

Youkilis isn't playing out of position at third base, he's played nearly half his professional career as a third baseman. Between the majors and minors he's played 559 games at 3B. He's played 634 at first. And IIRC, when he came up through the system his defense at third base was considered to be top-tier quality defense. Youkilis + Gonzalez > Youkilis + Beltre.

 

EDIT: Also I find it very Chicken Little-ish that Papelbon was one of the most dominating relievers over the previous 5 years, but he has one less than stellar year and already the team, media, and fans are calling for him to be traded, cut, whatever. His ERA+ prior to last season was 255. He put up a 112 ERA+ last season which is still above average. Not up to snuff with his previous numbers, but still not atrocious, but I find it odd that people are ready to give up on him despite being an incredible closer the previous 4 seasons. Yeah, he costs a lot of money, but that's the price you pay, and if he bounces back then it makes the large payment a little easier to swallow.

[Splendid Splinter]

Youkilis isn't playing out of position at third base, he's played nearly half his professional career as a third baseman. Between the majors and minors he's played 559 games at 3B. He's played 634 at first. And IIRC, when he came up through the system his defense at third base was considered to be top-tier quality defense. Youkilis + Gonzalez > Youkilis + Beltre.

 

EDIT: Also I find it very Chicken Little-ish that Papelbon was one of the most dominating relievers over the previous 5 years, but he has one less than stellar year and already the team, media, and fans are calling for him to be traded, cut, whatever. His ERA+ prior to last season was 255. He put up a 112 ERA+ last season which is still above average. Not up to snuff with his previous numbers, but still not atrocious, but I find it odd that people are ready to give up on him despite being an incredible closer the previous 4 seasons. Yeah, he costs a lot of money, but that's the price you pay, and if he bounces back then it makes the large payment a little easier to swallow.

 

To be fair... they have Bard waiting to take over the closer spot. They probably want to trade Papelbon so they can get something out of him instead of letting him go for nothing. Plus Bard is most likely going to be as good as Papelbon or at least Red Sox won't have to worry about the 9th inning if Papelbon is gone.

[erik316wttn]

Right now anything other than a Boston/Philly World Series in October would come as a shock to me.

[javy knows my name]

EDIT: Also I find it very Chicken Little-ish that Papelbon was one of the most dominating relievers over the previous 5 years, but he has one less than stellar year and already the team, media, and fans are calling for him to be traded, cut, whatever. His ERA+ prior to last season was 255. He put up a 112 ERA+ last season which is still above average. Not up to snuff with his previous numbers, but still not atrocious, but I find it odd that people are ready to give up on him despite being an incredible closer the previous 4 seasons. Yeah, he costs a lot of money, but that's the price you pay, and if he bounces back then it makes the large payment a little easier to swallow.

 

I could be off on this, but I think I remember people saying that Papelbon's peripherals did not match up with his success, even before he fell off. I think the reason why last year is so resonant with people is because that year was a kind of regression to the mean.

[SouthSideRyan]

Right now anything other than a Boston/Philly World Series in October would come as a shock to me.

 

I'll bet the field

[erik316wttn]

Right now anything other than a Boston/Philly World Series in October would come as a shock to me.

 

I'll bet the field

 

Once it plays out you could very well be right, but I think those are the two strongest teams in each league. Of course we all know what can happen in a short series in October.