I know that everyone in the universe has the Phillies and Red Sox picked to win the NL and AL in 2011, but, just to play devil’s advocate….are the Red Sox really that much improved? Before you tell me how out of my mind I am, hear me out… 1. Sure, they got Adrian Gonzalez, but, something no one seems to be talking about is that they essentially replaced Kevin Youkilis and Adrian Beltre with Youkilis and AGon, which could be a wash. In fact it’s almost as if they HAD to get a player of AGon’s caliber to keep pace. Sure, it’s unlikely that keeping Beltre wouldn’t necessarily be the right move because he won’t put those numbers up again, but, isn't it realistic to assume the corner IF from 2010 could have similar production to 2011? To the naked eye that looks like a huge upgrade, but, between the two corner infielders in 2010 they hit nearly 50 HRs, a combined average of .314, and 164 RBI. Given AGon’s offseason surgery and the fact that Youkilis will be playing out of position, can it realistically be expected that the two are able to be going to out produce those numbers AND be as sharp defensively? I know a lot of people think that AGon could probably hit 50 by himself at Fenway, but, keep in mind he has never hit more than 40 in a season and now he’s moving to the pitching rich AL East. Again, this tandem might be similar to what corner spots produced in 2010, but, is it realistic to expect the 2011 corner infielders to out produce those numbers by that much? 2. JD Drew and David Ortiz are starting to hit their declining years. They both had strong years in 2010, but, Ortiz had a career high 145 strike outs and Drew had one of the lowest OPS of his career. As both of these guys start to get into the twilight of their careers, the Red Sox could be in trouble if they’re relying on these two to produce at the elite level they are used to. 3. Beckett, Lackey, and Matsuzaka. I think Buchholz and Lester have really bright futures, but, the other 3 guys had pretty poor seasons in 2010. Beckett and Daisuke are pretty consistently an injury risk and have been trending downwards. Lackey did get to 200+ innings for the first time since 2007 but also had his highest era since 2004. 4. Papelbon’s blown saves and Pedroia’s health. 8 blown saves in 2010 and only 75 games played respectively. Is this a trend for these guys or just off years? I do think Crawford is an obvious upgrade in Left Field and this team COULD be really good, but, I don’t know if I’m ready to hand the world to them like everyone else seems to be. I think just like any team, there are still a bunch of "ifs" with these guys that I don’t hear much about in the media. Thoughts?
