OF Production

[Bruno7481]

Is there any chance for the current crop of outfielders on the 2011 roster at least be league average? My biggest concern with this team is the outfield production, or potential lack thereof.

 

Byrd if firmly planted in CF. For a CF, his production is just fine. The real concerns are on the corners. What does Soriano do? Can Colvin keep up a seemingly unsustainable power level? Can Quade see Fukudome for what he is and utilize him in an appropriate way?

 

I don't think this team will be terrible by any stretch, but it would be nice to have a more potent outfield.

[CubColtPacer]

Just FYI, The Cubs were above league average at all 3 OF positions last year. The problems last year were in the infield. The OF might be the problem this year (there are certainly plenty of question marks) and the OF is certainly the most overpaid part of the entire team but they'll a decent bet to be average or better.

[MWV]

Just FYI, The Cubs were above league average at all 3 OF positions last year. The problems last year were in the infield. The OF might be the problem this year (there are certainly plenty of question marks) and the OF is certainly the most overpaid part of the entire team but they'll a decent bet to be average or better.

In particular, Lee and Ramirez performed abysmally over the first half of last year:

 

2010 first half #s:

 

NL: .257/.327/.402

Cubs: .254/.321/.398

Lee: .233/.329 /.366

Ramirez: .207/.268/.380

 

Removing the contribution of Lee and Ramirez (~18% of total PA over that period) and replacing it with their career average numbers yields a team line of .265/.331/.421. Merely average first-halves for Lee and Ramirez may have been enough to bring the offense from below average in every category to above average across the board. The fact that they typically occupied the middle of the lineup didn't help, either.

Fortunately, Aramis was his old self in the second half (.276/.321/.526 w/ 15 HR in 246 PA), so that augurs well for 2011. Even a modest rebound from Peña should more than compensate for losing DLee.

[BeerHere]

Just FYI, The Cubs were above league average at all 3 OF positions last year. The problems last year were in the infield. The OF might be the problem this year (there are certainly plenty of question marks) and the OF is certainly the most overpaid part of the entire team but they'll a decent bet to be average or better.

In particular, Lee and Ramirez performed abysmally over the first half of last year:

 

2010 first half #s:

 

NL: .257/.327/.402

Cubs: .254/.321/.398

Lee: .233/.329 /.366

Ramirez: .207/.268/.380

 

Removing the contribution of Lee and Ramirez (~18% of total PA over that period) and replacing it with their career average numbers yields a team line of .265/.331/.421. Merely average first-halves for Lee and Ramirez may have been enough to bring the offense from below average in every category to above average across the board. The fact that they typically occupied the middle of the lineup didn't help, either.

Fortunately, Aramis was his old self in the second half (.276/.321/.526 w/ 15 HR in 246 PA), so that augurs well for 2011. Even a modest rebound from Peña should more than compensate for losing DLee.

 

Excellent analysis. THIS is the type of stuff I come here to read. Unfortunately I'm forced to read 15 pages of arguments and name calling to find these posts though.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Just FYI, The Cubs were above league average at all 3 OF positions last year. The problems last year were in the infield. The OF might be the problem this year (there are certainly plenty of question marks) and the OF is certainly the most overpaid part of the entire team but they'll a decent bet to be average or better.

In particular, Lee and Ramirez performed abysmally over the first half of last year:

 

2010 first half #s:

 

NL: .257/.327/.402

Cubs: .254/.321/.398

Lee: .233/.329 /.366

Ramirez: .207/.268/.380

 

Removing the contribution of Lee and Ramirez (~18% of total PA over that period) and replacing it with their career average numbers yields a team line of .265/.331/.421. Merely average first-halves for Lee and Ramirez may have been enough to bring the offense from below average in every category to above average across the board. The fact that they typically occupied the middle of the lineup didn't help, either.

Fortunately, Aramis was his old self in the second half (.276/.321/.526 w/ 15 HR in 246 PA), so that augurs well for 2011. Even a modest rebound from Peña should more than compensate for losing DLee.

 

Very cool post and another reason I'm optimistic about 2011 possibilities...limited sure, but possibly fun to watch.

[Cubswin11]

Is there any chance for the current crop of outfielders on the 2011 roster at least be league average? My biggest concern with this team is the outfield production, or potential lack thereof.

 

Byrd if firmly planted in CF. For a CF, his production is just fine. The real concerns are on the corners. What does Soriano do? Can Colvin keep up a seemingly unsustainable power level? Can Quade see Fukudome for what he is and utilize him in an appropriate way?

 

I don't think this team will be terrible by any stretch, but it would be nice to have a more potent outfield.

The OF will give us at least league average production this year and will almost certainly be above league average.

[nick23]

Is there any chance for the current crop of outfielders on the 2011 roster at least be league average? My biggest concern with this team is the outfield production, or potential lack thereof.

 

Byrd if firmly planted in CF. For a CF, his production is just fine. The real concerns are on the corners. What does Soriano do? Can Colvin keep up a seemingly unsustainable power level? Can Quade see Fukudome for what he is and utilize him in an appropriate way?

 

I don't think this team will be terrible by any stretch, but it would be nice to have a more potent outfield.

The OF will give us at least league average production this year and will almost certainly be above league average.

Not bad for only 37 million.

[Cubswin11]

Is there any chance for the current crop of outfielders on the 2011 roster at least be league average? My biggest concern with this team is the outfield production, or potential lack thereof.

 

Byrd if firmly planted in CF. For a CF, his production is just fine. The real concerns are on the corners. What does Soriano do? Can Colvin keep up a seemingly unsustainable power level? Can Quade see Fukudome for what he is and utilize him in an appropriate way?

 

I don't think this team will be terrible by any stretch, but it would be nice to have a more potent outfield.

The OF will give us at least league average production this year and will almost certainly be above league average.

Not bad for only 37 million.

I am not saying they are cost effective or that they "earn" their paycheck, simply that a OF consisting primarily of Soriano/Byrd/Fukudome/Colvin will put up numbers above league average quite easily.

[BigSlick]

It also remains to be seen what we get from 2b (if anything at all) and if Starlin Castro will have a sophomoric slump. Was his BABIP unusually high last year? We'll see how much pitchers adjust to him and how well he, in turn, adjusts to them.

[Cubswin11]

It also remains to be seen what we get from 2b (if anything at all) and if Starlin Castro will have a sophomoric slump. Was his BABIP unusually high last year? We'll see how much pitchers adjust to him and how well he, in turn, adjusts to them.

I think it was slightly high, but not anything crazy (it won't be an extreme outlier looking back on his career in 10 years). Even with some expected regression/bad luck on BABIP he should be able to sustain a .270-.290 avg.

[Guest]

Castro had a .346 BABIP on a 19.5% LD%. That's probably a bit high, but that's also a very high LD%, he has good speed, and his career MiLB BABIP is (wait for it) .346.

[BigSlick]

Nice. Solid line drive percentage reinforces the fact that he wasn't just pulling a smoke and mirrors act.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Castro had a .346 BABIP on a 19.5% LD%. That's probably a bit high, but that's also a very high LD%, he has good speed, and his career MiLB BABIP is (wait for it) .346.

 

I don't expect much of a regression from Castro at all.