Pujols signs with Angels pg 151

[davell]

So, what you're basically saying is you want us to be the first major market team in MLB to never sign a contract that the player doesn't produce at an elite level, or up to their monetary value? Because the Yanks, Red Sox, Phils and any other major market team signs guys that are going to put them in the same boat or worse off than we'd be with adding Prince or Pujols. It's an advantage to have this option. It's why we shouldn't ever have to talk about "making a serious run in 3 years". We can contend EVERY year. And the other major market teams do it the exact way you're saying not to.

[davearm2]

So, what you're basically saying is you want us to be the first major market team in MLB to never sign a contract that the player doesn't produce at an elite level, or up to their monetary value? Because the Yanks, Red Sox, Phils and any other major market team signs guys that are going to put them in the same boat or worse off than we'd be with adding Prince or Pujols. It's an advantage to have this option. It's why we shouldn't ever have to talk about "making a serious run in 3 years". We can contend EVERY year. And the other major market teams do it the exact way you're saying not to.

Not what I'm saying.

[davell]

Let's go at it this way then: Who do you want at 1B for the Cubs in 2012? And under what kind of contract? And if it's a stopgap guy, then what 1B do you foresee and when, that you think is a difference maker that we should go after? Also, under what type of contract, both in years and money do you think Prince or Pujols makes sense for the Cubs?

[davearm2]

Let's go at it this way then: Who do you want at 1B for the Cubs in 2012? And under what kind of contract? And if it's a stopgap guy, then what 1B do you foresee and when, that you think is a difference maker that we should go after? Also, under what type of contract, both in years and money do you think Prince or Pujols makes sense for the Cubs?

I've written a couple articles on the subject of Pujols' and Fielder's value. If you haven't seen them, you can find them on the NSBB front page.

 

Just about any 1B alternative is better than paying these guys much more than they'll be worth, and being bound to them for several severely overpaid decline years.

[Sammy Sofa]

Oh, Tim.

[davell]

Let's go at it this way then: Who do you want at 1B for the Cubs in 2012? And under what kind of contract? And if it's a stopgap guy, then what 1B do you foresee and when, that you think is a difference maker that we should go after? Also, under what type of contract, both in years and money do you think Prince or Pujols makes sense for the Cubs?

I've written a couple articles on the subject of Pujols' and Fielder's value. If you haven't seen them, you can find them on the NSBB front page.

 

Just about any 1B alternative is better than paying these guys much more than they'll be worth, and being bound to them for several severely overpaid decline years.

Non answers. I asked very specific questions, how about giving specific answers in return.

[davearm2]

Yes, my solution is to only make big FA signings that will likely be significantly overpaid in their final years.

Well, what you said was,

 

"The Cubs have the resources going forward to "strategically" take on big name contracts that likely will be significantly overpaid in the final years of their deals."

 

I interpreted that to mean, they should.

 

Yes, when it's players like Fielder or Pujols available who so obviously fill the needs of the team, they should (and Fielder being all but a lock to even put the Cubs in that scenario is hardly a sure thing).

 

What you "interpreted" is the made-up idea was that I was somehow suggesting they "fix" their bad signings of the last several years with big FA signings. How you possibly think I'm suggesting that when all of those bad contracts except one are gone after next season and don't require such inexplicable "fixing" is beyond me. It's like you go out of your way to be willfully obtuse to start really stupid arguments.

So what is it I'm being obtuse about?

 

You've stated three times now that you want the Cubs to sign guys that will likely be significantly overpaid in their final years. Just now you clarified that they should do so if the player obviously fills the needs of the team.

 

I think this is a losing strategy. End of story.

[Sammy Sofa]

You're being obtuse exactly as I pointed out in the post you quoted.

[davearm2]

Let's go at it this way then: Who do you want at 1B for the Cubs in 2012? And under what kind of contract? And if it's a stopgap guy, then what 1B do you foresee and when, that you think is a difference maker that we should go after? Also, under what type of contract, both in years and money do you think Prince or Pujols makes sense for the Cubs?

I've written a couple articles on the subject of Pujols' and Fielder's value. If you haven't seen them, you can find them on the NSBB front page.

 

Just about any 1B alternative is better than paying these guys much more than they'll be worth, and being bound to them for several severely overpaid decline years.

Who do you want at 1B for the Cubs in 2012?

I'd look for an under-30 player that has the potential to develop into a longterm answer at the position.

 

And under what kind of contract?

Obviously, it depends on who it is.

 

And if it's a stopgap guy, then what 1B do you foresee and when, that you think is a difference maker that we should go after?

It's a common misconception that the Cubs need a difference maker at 1B. The Cubs need difference makers, period. They don't have to play 1B. They have plenty of room to acommodate an elite OF, an elite MI, an elite SP, an elite 3B, etc. This false urgency to add an elite 1B is misguided.

 

Also, under what type of contract, both in years and money do you think Prince or Pujols makes sense for the Cubs?

Pujols: 6 years, $160M

Fielder: 5 years, $100M

[MSG T]

The other people can correct me if I'm wrong here, but Dave, I couldn't care less of the Cubs overpay Pujols/Fielder the last 2-3 years of the contract if...

 

- They are really good to elite (a high possibility for both) for the first 5-7 years.

 

- The Cubs are consistent playoff teams during that time.

 

- The Cubs make other moves to help with the second point.

 

Those three things are NOT mutually exclusive. The can sign either of them and still have more money than all but 4-5 other teams left over to build a team around them. What is so hard about this? I don't think obtuse is necessarily the right word, but it does seem you're being intentionally contrarian.

[Sammy Sofa]

dave, I want you to look at the lists of the projected FA available now, after 2012 and 2013 and, thinking hypothetically that the Cubs have to fill all open positions with FA, tell us who you'd want them to sign and for how much. Let us know which ones are the elite talent, too.

[davearm2]

The other people can correct me if I'm wrong here, but Dave, I couldn't care less of the Cubs overpay Pujols/Fielder the last 2-3 years of the contract if...

 

- They are really good to elite (a high possibility for both) for the first 5-7 years.

 

- The Cubs are consistent playoff teams during that time.

 

- The Cubs make other moves to help with the second point.

 

Those three things are NOT mutually exclusive. The can sign either of them and still have more money than all but 4-5 other teams left over to build a team around them. What is so hard about this? I don't think obtuse is necessarily the right word, but it does seem you're being intentionally contrarian.

Here's my view:

 

1: The Cubs are not going to be really good to elite in 2012. This team just finished 19 games under .500 and is losing Ramirez and Pena. Adding Pujols or Fielder puts them back to even, basically. There's still a ton of other building blocks needed and those aren't all going to be collected in one offseason. Quite possibly not two offseasons. I might be with you under different circumstances, but this Cubs team is just too far away from that elite level.

 

2: The Cubs could spend the money more efficiently after the first 4 or 5 years. After that, either guy is into that decline phase where you wish you could get out of the contract and spend the money elsewhere.

 

Putting 1 and 2 together, the Cubs are looking at handing out a 7-to-9 year contract, and what they get for that is a window of 2-3 years where the player's salary and production are properly balanced. Before that, the elite production is essentially wasted on a non-elite team. After that, the downside of the decline years takes effect.

 

Committing 9 years and $200M+ to Albert Pujols to get a 3-year window to win it all is an incredibly poor resource allocation IMO.

[davearm2]

dave, I want you to look at the lists of the projected FA available now, after 2012 and 2013 and, thinking hypothetically that the Cubs have to fill all open positions with FA, tell us who you'd want them to sign and for how much. Let us know which ones are the elite talent, too.

That'd be a pointless exercise. If they have to fill all open positions with FA, they're screwed.

[Sammy Sofa]

It's a hypothetical so we can get a better grasp as to who you want the Cubs to target instead of Pujols or Fielder via FA and to see what you consider to be elite talent.

[davell]

Dave, while I agree completely that having an elite talent at 1B is NOT a necessity, having elitee bats period, is. And if you look at what's out there this offseason and next, you build whichever way makes the most sense. And we have a need at 1B and that's where the elite talent is. Adding another elite bat next season is not going to be easy through FA as there just aren't many out there. We have the ability to add an elite pitcher in both classes as well. So, if you add 2 bigtime bats and 2 bigtime pitchers to this team, aren't they contenders? Because we can probably afford 4 guys at a combined 70 mill or so heading into the 2013 season. I think doing it this way takes advantage of still having Castro well below cost value at that point. Waiting until 3 or 4 seasons to start spending and you're paying him much closer to market value by then. With development from Brett Jackson, we may have another very cheap solid regular as well. By your way of thinking, it seems like you want to wait until Baez, Vogelbach, Maples, or whoever else is in the same position Castro and maybe. Jackson are right now. Positions don't matter, I'll agree, but you take what you can get and as far as I'm concerned, I think we're lucky we have a need where the impact guys from this FA class play. Edited November 28, 2011 by davell

[davearm2]

It's a hypothetical so we can get a better grasp as to who you want the Cubs to target instead of Pujols or Fielder via FA and to see what you consider to be elite talent.

Well you've already heard me say I would have been happy handing out the contracts that Teixeira and Adrian Gonzalez received.

[rawaction]

Committing 9 years and $200M+ to Albert Pujols to get a 3-year window to win it all is an incredibly poor resource allocation IMO.

 

What about when you consider, it won't take 9 years and even after 3 years as one of the top 5 players in baseball, Pujols will still be above replacement level for a couple more years? And you also have to consider that 3 years gives you plenty of time to extend that window of opportunity. Gives you a chance to develop a farm system. Gives you a chance to get rid of expiring bad contracts. Gives you a chance to develop your own players and figure out the holes on your team.

[davearm2]

Dave, while I agree completely that having an elite talent at 1B is NOT a necessity, having elitee bats period, is. And if you look at what's out there this offseason and next, you build whichever way makes the most sense. And we have a need at 1B and that's where the elite talent is. Adding another elite bat next season is not going to be easy through FA as there just aren't many out there. We have the ability to add an elite pitcher in both classes as well. So, if you add 2 bigtime bats and 2 bigtime pitchers to this team, aren't they contenders? Because we can probably afford 4 guys at a combined 70 mill or so heading into the 2013 season. I think doing it this way takes advantage of still having Castro well below cost value at that point. Waiting until 3 or 4 seasons to start spending and you're paying him much closer to market value by then. With development from Brett Jackson, we may have another very cheap solid regular as well. By your way of thinking, it seems like you want to wait until Baez, Vogelbach, Maples, or whoever else is in the same position Castro and maybe. Jackson are right now. Positions don't matter, I'll agree, but you take what you can get and as far as I'm concerned, I think we're lucky we have a need where the impact guys from this FA class play.

I'm not wanting to wait for guys like Baez Vogelbach etc.

 

What I'd like to see is a few big trades for guys that are on the right side of 30, but about to get too expensive for their current team (or available for some other reason, like the Logan Morrison, Colby Rasmus situations). I mentioned someplace earlier, the Cubs added Ramirez and DLee in two trades within about 6 or 8 months of each other. Let's get a few of our impact guys that way.

[Sammy Sofa]

It's a hypothetical so we can get a better grasp as to who you want the Cubs to target instead of Pujols or Fielder via FA and to see what you consider to be elite talent.

Well you've already heard me say I would have been happy handing out the contracts that Teixeira and Adrian Gonzalez received.

 

I know, and now I want to know who you think the Cubs should hypothetically sign now, after 2012 or after 2013 given the FA projected to be available. Let's narrow it down and just say they're signing 2-3 FA in each of those offseasons. Who would you be comfortable with them signing? Who would you consider to be elite and worth pursuing? Who do you think will be overrated/overpriced vs. the return as you continually argue Pujols and Fielder will be?

[Sammy Sofa]

Dave, while I agree completely that having an elite talent at 1B is NOT a necessity, having elitee bats period, is. And if you look at what's out there this offseason and next, you build whichever way makes the most sense. And we have a need at 1B and that's where the elite talent is. Adding another elite bat next season is not going to be easy through FA as there just aren't many out there. We have the ability to add an elite pitcher in both classes as well. So, if you add 2 bigtime bats and 2 bigtime pitchers to this team, aren't they contenders? Because we can probably afford 4 guys at a combined 70 mill or so heading into the 2013 season. I think doing it this way takes advantage of still having Castro well below cost value at that point. Waiting until 3 or 4 seasons to start spending and you're paying him much closer to market value by then. With development from Brett Jackson, we may have another very cheap solid regular as well. By your way of thinking, it seems like you want to wait until Baez, Vogelbach, Maples, or whoever else is in the same position Castro and maybe. Jackson are right now. Positions don't matter, I'll agree, but you take what you can get and as far as I'm concerned, I think we're lucky we have a need where the impact guys from this FA class play.

I'm not wanting to wait for guys like Baez Vogelbach etc.

 

What I'd like to see is a few big trades for guys that are on the right side of 30, but about to get too expensive for their current team (or available for some other reason, like the Logan Morrison, Colby Rasmus situations). I mentioned someplace earlier, the Cubs added Ramirez and DLee in two trades within about 6 or 8 months of each other. Let's get a few of our impact guys that way.

 

Or sign someone like Fielder and not give up anyone.

[davell]

With the new CBA rules restricting how much we'll be able to spend on the draft and IFA, I think it's probable that our major league payroll just got bumped up 7 to 10 mill this offseason. Only way this won't be the case is if Theo decides to shove it up Selig's ass and take the huge financial penalties for overspending in those areas. With this being the case Dave, what are you going to do with this extra money? Since it's not even going to be available for the areas you(and me) would prefer spending it. bottom line is I think it's likely we'll be able to get a Fielder or Pujols AND a Darvish or CJ if that's what we want to do. And still have some cash left over to address a few other possible needs.

[Sammy Sofa]

And have a ton of cash freeing up after next year, too.

[davearm2]

Dave, while I agree completely that having an elite talent at 1B is NOT a necessity, having elitee bats period, is. And if you look at what's out there this offseason and next, you build whichever way makes the most sense. And we have a need at 1B and that's where the elite talent is. Adding another elite bat next season is not going to be easy through FA as there just aren't many out there. We have the ability to add an elite pitcher in both classes as well. So, if you add 2 bigtime bats and 2 bigtime pitchers to this team, aren't they contenders? Because we can probably afford 4 guys at a combined 70 mill or so heading into the 2013 season. I think doing it this way takes advantage of still having Castro well below cost value at that point. Waiting until 3 or 4 seasons to start spending and you're paying him much closer to market value by then. With development from Brett Jackson, we may have another very cheap solid regular as well. By your way of thinking, it seems like you want to wait until Baez, Vogelbach, Maples, or whoever else is in the same position Castro and maybe. Jackson are right now. Positions don't matter, I'll agree, but you take what you can get and as far as I'm concerned, I think we're lucky we have a need where the impact guys from this FA class play.

I'm not wanting to wait for guys like Baez Vogelbach etc.

 

What I'd like to see is a few big trades for guys that are on the right side of 30, but about to get too expensive for their current team (or available for some other reason, like the Logan Morrison, Colby Rasmus situations). I mentioned someplace earlier, the Cubs added Ramirez and DLee in two trades within about 6 or 8 months of each other. Let's get a few of our impact guys that way.

 

Or sign someone like Fielder and not give up anyone.

Fielder's opportunity cost is still huge. It's just paid 100% in cash, and 0% in prospects.

[Sammy Sofa]

Yeah, it's pretty great.

[davell]

Dave, while I agree completely that having an elite talent at 1B is NOT a necessity, having elitee bats period, is. And if you look at what's out there this offseason and next, you build whichever way makes the most sense. And we have a need at 1B and that's where the elite talent is. Adding another elite bat next season is not going to be easy through FA as there just aren't many out there. We have the ability to add an elite pitcher in both classes as well. So, if you add 2 bigtime bats and 2 bigtime pitchers to this team, aren't they contenders? Because we can probably afford 4 guys at a combined 70 mill or so heading into the 2013 season. I think doing it this way takes advantage of still having Castro well below cost value at that point. Waiting until 3 or 4 seasons to start spending and you're paying him much closer to market value by then. With development from Brett Jackson, we may have another very cheap solid regular as well. By your way of thinking, it seems like you want to wait until Baez, Vogelbach, Maples, or whoever else is in the same position Castro and maybe. Jackson are right now. Positions don't matter, I'll agree, but you take what you can get and as far as I'm concerned, I think we're lucky we have a need where the impact guys from this FA class play.

I'm not wanting to wait for guys like Baez Vogelbach etc.

 

What I'd like to see is a few big trades for guys that are on the right side of 30, but about to get too expensive for their current team (or available for some other reason, like the Logan Morrison, Colby Rasmus situations). I mentioned someplace earlier, the Cubs added Ramirez and DLee in two trades within about 6 or 8 months of each other. Let's get a few of our impact guys that way.

 

Or sign someone like Fielder and not give up anyone.

Bingo. First of all, while we're certainly not privvy to who all may actually get shopped, adding elite guys typically means you're going to give up premium talent to get them. I think quite a bit has changed in the game involving trading over the past 5 years or so as well, making it much harder to pull those type of deals off. Develop as much as you can, add impact guys through FA and if it presents itself, add through trading as well. Cost value for cheap controllable guys has gone up dramatically, making it much harder to pull off those deals.