BA's Top 10 Cubs Prospects

[craig]

I admit when evaluating their original list, I didn't really even have relievers like Caridad, Mateo, and Maine in mind.

 

Yeah, I wasn't thinking this way either, but this is kind of their MO, next year when we're debating this, I bet we all remember the reliever fetish of BA.

 

Well, I don't know that it's some crazy reliever fetish. But, I think they do tend to like to hit on guys who are going to make the major leagues. Barney will be in the majors. Cales was a reliever that didn't make it. So I'm not sure it's that much reliever fetish.

 

Maine has a very good chance to be in the majors. He looked pretty good, and if they have him 90-92, lefties can hang around for a while.

 

They said Kurcz's change advanced a lot, so they kind of think he'll be starting, at least for a while in the minors, even if most minor-league starters do end up in relief.

 

They may figure Lake will end up in relief, but I don't think including him was really reliever fetish! (Joke...)

 

I think they do tend toward guys they get upper-90's talk on, even if they are relievers. They always get talk about Mateo hitting 97 from their scouting sources, which helps keep him up around 20 on their list, and I imagine they liked his 10:1 K/BB ratio in AA. They had Smit at 92-97, tight slider, splitter, deceptive delivery.

 

So basically they have their 18-19-20 Mateo-Lopez-Smit guys all touching 97 or better, with their 24-25 Wells-Kurcz hitting 95.

[Guest]

Two Cubs made BA's NL not-quite-Top-10 all-stars:

 

Darwin Barney, ss, Cubs. The driving force behind Oregon State's 2006-07 College World Series championship clubs, Barney keeps winning and getting better. His tools still don't wow anyone, but he's a quality defender who gets the job done at the plate and on the bases. He won't knock Starlin Castro off shortstop in Chicago, but he could steal the second-base job.

 

Scott Maine, rp, Cubs. Acquired from the Diamondbacks in the November 2009 Aaron Heilman trade, Maine didn't impress Chicago when he showed an 87-90 mph fastball and a mediocre slurve last April. But everything came together for him during the summer, and he threw 93-97 mph with a tough slider in the big league bullpen in September.

[toonsterwu]

Whoa ... Maine is back at 93-97? I don't recall that. I thought he was peaking in the mid-90's, not sitting in the mid-90's.

 

If Maine is consistently in the mid-90's, closer to what he was back at the start of his college, before TJ and the terrible accident ... I'd rather see him get a rotation shot than Russell. It's easy to forget how hyped he once was.

[toonsterwu]

Looking at the overall BA list that Raisin posted, it's ... interesting. An odd list from BA, which perhaps reflects upon the Cubs organizational feelings? There's some "floor" guys much higher than I expected, and then there's some guys that are just higher than I feel. I've got to think that the Cubs are still higher on Watkins than most of us. Let's see, guys that I am mildly curious as to why they aren't on the top 30 - Rusin (imagine it's because of his ceiling, or lack thereof), Kim (lack of ... reports?), Struck (this one I am curious about, the performance didn't necessarily match up with some of the reports on his stuff, though (granted, some of the stuff reports were relative to level, IIRC), and Wallach. To a lesser extent, I'd be curious as to why Reed, Kirk, and Jung failed to make the list (the poster over at BCB these days really loves Jung).

 

Always felt like Caridad was overhyped a touch from that AFL experience (where his velo improved a bit). Well, I wasn't here back then, so maybe he wasn't overhyped here.

 

My guess is that Burgess will slot in around the mid-teens (probably ahead of Golden, after all, there's a chance that Golden is Burgess), with Morris probably in the late teens/early 20's, probably behind Smit. I still am more intrigued with Hicks than I am with those two, though. I know there's some reports of Morris with stuff in the mid-90's, but if he hit that, I didn't see it this year. Burgess is working hard, I'll give him that, but just not sold he can find a balance with discipline and instinct to go with his power.

[craig]

Whoa ... Maine is back at 93-97? I don't recall that. I thought he was peaking in the mid-90's, not sitting in the mid-90's.

 

If Maine is consistently in the mid-90's, closer to what he was back at the start of his college, before TJ and the terrible accident ... I'd rather see him get a rotation shot than Russell. It's easy to forget how hyped he once was.

 

Yes, that seems awfully high. I wonder how real or sustainable that is? But I think BA runs with the numbers they list, and that helps to establish why guys rank where they do. If they'd been told Maine was 89-94, he'd be in a different spot.

 

I was also surprised to see Smit listing as touching 97. I hadn't appreciated that he was that fast. If Smit is the guy that scouting report describes (92-97 velocity, deceptive, pretty sharp slider), with 63K/14BB/4HR numbers that his stats report from last year, then he's better than I'd appreciated.

 

I certainly didn't have high-velocity touching 97 in mind, nor deceptive.

[toonsterwu]

I'm not sold Smit is consistently that high either, but I didn't see him this year, at least not that I recall. I know Dodger fan reports put him in the low 90's, touching mid-90's, but BA seems to be loosely implying that he can sit mid-90's.

[craig]

Whoa ... Maine is back at 93-97? I don't recall that. I thought he was peaking in the mid-90's, not sitting in the mid-90's.

 

If Maine is consistently in the mid-90's, closer to what he was back at the start of his college, before TJ and the terrible accident ... I'd rather see him get a rotation shot than Russell. It's easy to forget how hyped he once was.

 

Thanks for this post, toonster. Believe it or not, I don't think I'd ever read about his history. My perception was way off: as a 6th-round senior sign lefty with average velocity, who'd been drafted in teens and 20's in previously, I'd just assumed he was your typical journeyman limited-stuff Loogy-wannabe. To find that back in HS BA viewed him as the 8th best HS prospect in the country, I totally didn't appreciate that. TJ. The car accident and head injury. Interesting

 

I think I read the BA reports differently from you. I think 93-97 for Maine and 92-97 for smit, I don't believe they are saying those guys are resting/sitting within those brackets at 95+/- 2 mph consistently. I think the 97's are the highest gun reading any of their sources have seen, and that there are probably a lot more 92's/93's than 95's or 97's.

 

It may mean that 93-97 is max speed depending on the day? In June, scout sees him mostly working 89-92 but touched 94 twice; other scout saw him 90-93 but touched 95 a couple of times. In August, a scout saw him working 90-94, but did see a couple of 95's and 96's and one 97. I guess I'm thinking that when I see 92-97 for Smit, fair chance that only 10-20% of his fastballs are in the 94-97 end of that range.

[Northside Blues]

Two Cubs made BA's NL not-quite-Top-10 all-stars:

 

Darwin Barney, ss, Cubs. The driving force behind Oregon State's 2006-07 College World Series championship clubs, Barney keeps winning and getting better. His tools still don't wow anyone, but he's a quality defender who gets the job done at the plate and on the bases. He won't knock Starlin Castro off shortstop in Chicago, but he could steal the second-base job.

 

Yes, that career minor league OPS of .708 is getting the job done.

[Post Count Padder]

Two Cubs made BA's NL not-quite-Top-10 all-stars:

 

Darwin Barney, ss, Cubs. The driving force behind Oregon State's 2006-07 College World Series championship clubs, Barney keeps winning and getting better. His tools still don't wow anyone, but he's a quality defender who gets the job done at the plate and on the bases. He won't knock Starlin Castro off shortstop in Chicago, but he could steal the second-base job.

 

Yes, that career minor league OPS of .708 is getting the job done.

Theriot had some bad minor league numbers and he managed a few decent big league season. He's still not a good player but he played better in the big leagues. Not saying Barney will follow suit but can't rule it out.

[KingCubsFan]

Two Cubs made BA's NL not-quite-Top-10 all-stars:

 

Darwin Barney, ss, Cubs. The driving force behind Oregon State's 2006-07 College World Series championship clubs, Barney keeps winning and getting better. His tools still don't wow anyone, but he's a quality defender who gets the job done at the plate and on the bases. He won't knock Starlin Castro off shortstop in Chicago, but he could steal the second-base job.

 

Yes, that career minor league OPS of .708 is getting the job done.

Theriot had some bad minor league numbers and he managed a few decent big league season. He's still not a good player but he played better in the big leagues. Not saying Barney will follow suit but can't rule it out.

Theriot's bad numbers had more to do with the fact that he was a switch hitter for a lot of his minor league career. He was always pretty solid when hitting right-handed

[Guest]

Update from Camp Colvin: http://journal.boysofspring.com/2011/02/what-i-learned-at-camp-colvin.html

 

Of note, Barney has gained 18 pounds, and LeMahieu 19.

[Guest]

BA's Top 100 is out: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2011/2611316.html

 

Jackson is #38 - 6th best OF

McNutt is #48 - 17th best RHP

 

Archer was #27, and Hak Ju Lee came in at 92.