Greinke traded to Brewers (pg 2)

[davearm2]

Yeah, the opportunity cost gets borne out when they're unable to improve with their remaining resources, not debited from Greinke's value. By that logic, if you had 25 4-win players making 8 million each, that would somehow be a 50 win team.

That's not the logic at all.

 

This discussion originated with the question of how much better the Brewers are after this trade. Someone said they're better by the amount of Greinke's WAR. That's incorrect.

[dew1679666265]

My problem with subtracting value from a player due to his contract from the time of his addition is it's too presumptive. The good thing about Greinke is that he's a 5 WAR player who will earn $13 mil the next two years. There's not that many players like that available and fewer that Milwaukee would have seriously pursued.

 

It's more accurate, I think, to look at the prospects lost in the deal and the downgrade from Escobar to Betancourt rather than hypothetical situations the Brewers likely wouldn't have been involved in anyway (Crawford, Lee). I don't think the trade was worth it, but not because the Brewers now can't pursue Crawford, Lee or some other major player they probably wouldn't have anyway. It's more because they mortgaged their future and didn't get enough of an upgrade in return.

[dew1679666265]

I guess this is as good a place as any to post this

 

New Brewers manager Ron Roenicke intends to be super aggressive on the basepaths in 2011.

 

Roenicke, of course was the bench coach in Anaheim for Mike Sciosica, one of the game's most aggressive managers. "At times, you're going to say, 'Why are you running so much?" Roenicke said. "Why are you getting thrown out trying to take extra bases?'... That's the style I like to play."

 

:lol: :lol: :lol: awesome

 

I can't believe he actually referred to getting thrown out taking extra bases as something he wants to do. That's an awesome quote.

[Menace II Sobriety]

Actually Dave is not correct. He missed 2 key points.

 

1. He stated that the payroll would go up, which on a transaction based point it did, but a $13 MM acquisition will obviously raise the current payroll. But the Brewers payroll is actually lower than it was at the start of the previous season. With the subtractions of Hall, Hoffman, Suppan and others. I believe Suppan made 12.5 MM last year so it could be stated that they dumped Suppan for Greinke for 500k plus prospects.

Getting hung up on these numbers misses the bigger point. The point is, there was $13M available to spend. Spending it all on Greinke was just one option (and arguably the best option). But you still need to consider what could have been done with that money, and net it out.

 

2. He states that the 13 MM to Greinke stops them from using that money to acquire other key assets they could use. Where else are you going to find a 5 WAR player at 2x13. Or what group of players could you assemble to be worth that WAR at the same cost. The Brewers were never in contention for either Crawford or Lee. The cannot risk the future on those types of deals (Soriano). Also Fielder was already offered over 100 MM to sign an extension. The money for the first 3-4 years isn't the problem, and as soon as they paid 6/150 which it very well might cost many would think they vastly overpaid.

 

For the length and monetary value of the contract, it is hard to find a better cost per dollar for a team needing pitching that any other available player could provide.

It's easy to argue that this was the best way the Brewers could have spent that $13M. I wouldn't debate that.

 

All I'm saying is you're overstating the impact if you choose to ignore the opportunity cost element.

 

 

I think you are backtracking a little. You are now stating that you wouldn't debate that the $13 million to Greinke is the best way to use that money. As well as saying that they have to look at all of the other ways that the Brewers could have used that money to determine if this was the best use of funds. I am sure they did that before making the trade.

 

You didn't take the money coming off of the books into consideration. Soriano is an albatross of a contract that in no way should be used for comparisons to Greinke. Greinke is only for 2 years and about 2/3 the price of Soriano. People have already been complaining about his contract for a few years and will still be complaining about it a few years after Greinke's contract is up. I highly doubt that any free agents or players on a comparable level could have be had for 2/13.

[KingCubsFan]

My problem with subtracting value from a player due to his contract from the time of his addition is it's too presumptive. The good thing about Greinke is that he's a 5 WAR player who will earn $13 mil the next two years. There's not that many players like that available and fewer that Milwaukee would have seriously pursued.

 

It's more accurate, I think, to look at the prospects lost in the deal and the downgrade from Escobar to Betancourt rather than hypothetical situations the Brewers likely wouldn't have been involved in anyway (Crawford, Lee). I don't think the trade was worth it, but not because the Brewers now can't pursue Crawford, Lee or some other major player they probably wouldn't have anyway. It's more because they mortgaged their future and didn't get enough of an upgrade in return.

I wouldn't say they mortgaged their future. They didn't give up any great prospects, basically just a reliever, a guy years away with a ceiling as a #3 and a light-hitting SS whose value was only going to decline going forward. It was a great trade for them. They spent years stockpiling talent in the farm system, and the window on that group is about to close due to financial constraints. Going for it all makes sense.

[davearm2]

Actually Dave is not correct. He missed 2 key points.

 

1. He stated that the payroll would go up, which on a transaction based point it did, but a $13 MM acquisition will obviously raise the current payroll. But the Brewers payroll is actually lower than it was at the start of the previous season. With the subtractions of Hall, Hoffman, Suppan and others. I believe Suppan made 12.5 MM last year so it could be stated that they dumped Suppan for Greinke for 500k plus prospects.

Getting hung up on these numbers misses the bigger point. The point is, there was $13M available to spend. Spending it all on Greinke was just one option (and arguably the best option). But you still need to consider what could have been done with that money, and net it out.

 

2. He states that the 13 MM to Greinke stops them from using that money to acquire other key assets they could use. Where else are you going to find a 5 WAR player at 2x13. Or what group of players could you assemble to be worth that WAR at the same cost. The Brewers were never in contention for either Crawford or Lee. The cannot risk the future on those types of deals (Soriano). Also Fielder was already offered over 100 MM to sign an extension. The money for the first 3-4 years isn't the problem, and as soon as they paid 6/150 which it very well might cost many would think they vastly overpaid.

 

For the length and monetary value of the contract, it is hard to find a better cost per dollar for a team needing pitching that any other available player could provide.

It's easy to argue that this was the best way the Brewers could have spent that $13M. I wouldn't debate that.

 

All I'm saying is you're overstating the impact if you choose to ignore the opportunity cost element.

 

 

I think you are backtracking a little. You are now stating that you wouldn't debate that the $13 million to Greinke is the best way to use that money. As well as saying that they have to look at all of the other ways that the Brewers could have used that money to determine if this was the best use of funds. I am sure they did that before making the trade.

 

You didn't take the money coming off of the books into consideration. Soriano is an albatross of a contract that in no way should be used for comparisons to Greinke. Greinke is only for 2 years and about 2/3 the price of Soriano. People have already been complaining about his contract for a few years and will still be complaining about it a few years after Greinke's contract is up. I highly doubt that any free agents or players on a comparable level could have be had for 2/13.

Not backtracking at all. I'm just pointing out that the degree to which the Brewers improved themselves has been overstated.

 

The only reason why Soriano is relevant is because he shines a bright light on why this is true.

[Splendid Splinter]

Not backtracking at all. I'm just pointing out that the degree to which the Brewers improved themselves has been overstated.

 

The only reason why Soriano is relevant is because he shines a bright light on why this is true.

 

Honestly a better comparsion would be Fukudome to Grienke, not Soriano...

[davearm2]

Not backtracking at all. I'm just pointing out that the degree to which the Brewers improved themselves has been overstated.

 

The only reason why Soriano is relevant is because he shines a bright light on why this is true.

 

Honestly a better comparsion would be Fukudome to Grienke, not Soriano...

I'm not comparing Soriano to Greinke.

 

I'm using an extreme example (which Soriano is) to illustrate a point.

[dew1679666265]

I wouldn't say they mortgaged their future. They didn't give up any great prospects, basically just a reliever, a guy years away with a ceiling as a #3 and a light-hitting SS whose value was only going to decline going forward. It was a great trade for them. They spent years stockpiling talent in the farm system, and the window on that group is about to close due to financial constraints. Going for it all makes sense.

 

They also gave up Lorenzo Cain, who looks to be an MLB ready centerfielder with a good bat. The problem for the Brewers is, all of those players, even if they aren't great individually, represent cheap, good production that is now gone. Instead of a cheap, light hitting, great defensive SS, they have an expensive, light hitting, poor fielding SS. If they don't have any other SS ready in the next couple of years, then they'll have to fill SS through free agency, which is more money taken from other areas. It's the same with all the other areas.

 

Plus, I'm also taking into account the Marcum/Lawrie trade, which made no sense.

 

I understand why they made the moves, I just don't see them being close enough for them to make sense. If you're right on the edge of deep playoff contention, fine. But a team that even with Greinke and Marcum is no sure thing to make the postseason and has limited financial resources (needing as much young talent as they can get), it just doesn't make sense.

[johnbriggs12]

We won't know for several years whether the Brewers gave up too much. The 4 guys they gave up could all turn out to be quite good. Writing off Escobar as a just another "weak hitting SS" ignores the fact that he hit decent at every level in the minors, has exceptional range and a rifle. Cain's taken a while to get to the big leagues, most due to injury, but he's always had very impressive tools. Jeffress isn't "just a reliever". He's been clocked at 101 mph and consistently works 96-98. His questions have been all off the field. Odorizzi was the highest regarded A-level starter in Brewer system. But none of those 4 or even the group in total was likely to make anywhere near the impact of Greinke in 2011.

 

You have to look at this deal in two contexts. One, is Melvin's status as GM. He's on his 3rd manager. If he fails the next couple years, he's gone. The other is that 2011 is the last year where they have all their big guns (Fielder, Hart, Weeks, Braun) together and all are in their primes. Finally this deal has undoubtedly boosted ticket sales for a team that relies heavily on the gate. Look for the Brewers to be back over 3 million this year after dipping below it last year.

 

They still have a core of guys locked up for a while at reasonable dollars: Braun, Hart, Gallardo. They have enough coming off the books when Fielder and perhaps Weeks leaves to lock up a couple more, one of whom will undoubtedly be either Marcum or Greinke. They have 2 first round picks this year, and likely several extra picks in 2012.