Bedo's Top 25 Cubs Prospects for 2011

[B-Squared]

Here's the link to it if interested! Again, just my opinion on all. Hope you enjoy reading. Thanks!

 

http://312sports.com/pro-teams/cubs/51-latest-news/2044-bedos-top-25-cubs-prospects-of-2011

[B-Squared]

Chiefs voice Nathan Baliva suggests Matt Cerda and Nick Struck making the list, with Dolis a little too high IHO....Cerda was probably the first one left off, I really do like him though. He just fell off the map after missing '09 but is still really young....Struck had a great 2nd half, one of the nicest guys as well...

[Guest]

Brian,

 

It's a good list - I've got a few disagreements, but that's the fun of it all. I'll try to find some time later for more detailed comments. Back to work for now, though.

[craig]

Nice list, Brian. And I enjoy the pictures.

 

My list has extensive overlap with yours. Two guys I had in my top 25 that are not included on your list are Raley and Whitenack. What do you know stuff-wise scouting-wise about them? Any ideas what the Cubs think about them internally? Is it your view that they just need to sustain longer? Or that their stuff just is too mediocre to merit inclusion on a list like this? Or is it partly a case of guys who you just haven't seen much yourself, whose numbers weren't that eye-catching, and who you haven't really gotten strong reports on from trusted sources?

 

Last, on Jay Jackson: I'm guessing your understanding is that the maturity issues go well beyond the 2009 incident? Tip of the iceberg, perhaps? My baseball concern with him is the volume of HR's allowed.

 

Would I be wrong in guessing that much of your seen-them-yourself observation is for Peoria guys, and that guys like Rusin and Raley who bypassed Daytona, that you don't have as much feel for what they are like either as players or as personalities?

[davell]

Yeah, the Jay Jackson comments were a bit of a surprise to me honestly. Was it just Cub spin control to say that it was a one time incident with him? I thought that he had went out drinking one night and missed curfew or something to that effect, but that he was considered a very solid character type, which is why they punished him the way that they did, with the demotion......

[B-Squared]

Craig and Davell-

 

Thanks for the input. Glad you had a chance to read. Sorry it took a bit to respond but was busy all afternoon yesterday and was at the Bulls game last night!

 

To address the first question, I certainly thought about Raley and Whitenack, and in many other years, it would've been even more difficult to exclude them from a list like this. As far as reasoning is concerned, I think it's a little bit of everything you had suggested. While I have seen Whitenack a handful of times, I have not seen Raley personally but I think I just into account the stats as well as what I've heard internally about him. For Whitenack, he has unique stuff (knuckle-curve just to mention one reason) and outside of a few historically bad and Jason Marquis-like starts, he put up very solid numbers between Peoria and Daytona. I just didn't feel his stuff and stats merited a spot in this year's 25, but know that he could pitch well again next year and move him the list. As for Raley, I think some of his inconsistencies left him a little behind Rusin and some others. He had some great performances last year, but had some clunkers too. As far as what the Cubs think of him, I know they really like him, but I heard they liked him a little better before '10 then they did at the end of the season. Overall though, he seemed to be pretty solid in his first full year. Neither of them have personality or character issues from my knowledge. I can certainly understand why one might put them in their Top 25 list, just not quite enough room on mine. I also like Struck better than Whitenack too as he was actually closer to making the cut.

 

Also, you are right to suggest that I don't know first-hand the character or personalities of some of they guys that skipped Peoria (Rusin, Cales, etc), but I do know how coaches in the system have felt about these guys as well as their teammates. I don't know if they're world-class citizens or not, but I do know that they are not getting in their own way when it comes to development, as evident with the jumps that some of those guys have made. I will also admit, like I did in the article, that some of these players rose or dropped based on character and personality. But at the same time, it was the not the main factor. For example, Ryan Flaherty is really a great kid and is very humble, but I just don't feel his value is as high as some others.

 

Last but not least, Jay Jackson lol. The incident that both you guys are referring to is the '09 incident. You are both right in that the demotion to Daytona came after a drunken stuper from Jackson the night before the start, and the Cubs weren't lying in that sense, but they certainly left out some other info not only on that specific incident, but others as well. They did misinform when they said it was a "one-time incident" and that it was out of character of Jackson, but that's nowhere near what I've heard about him. He's not a coachable guy and carries himself like he's better than everyone else. I've honestly heard nothing about negative things about the guy. I've not gotten to know him at all personally, but the reactions I've gotten from him are not good. In saying that though, he's still a young guy and has plenty of time to mature and sort out those character issues. One of the main things that I've learned about being around Minor Leaguers is that nobody is a bigger fan of them than themselves. That's not fair to stereotype all of them like that, but surely is the case for some. That's why I think it's so rare to have the current crop that we do with the Cubs, so many humble and down-to-earth guys. Also, the Cubs might've spun it like it was a one-time thing because they don't want to leak to other organizations that he's not a Grade-A guy. Don't want anything to diminish his value to others.

 

Lemme know if this answers some of your Q's and if you have anymore. Also, appreciate all your suggestions on guys who you think I ranked too high, too low, or which you have overlapped with mine. Thanks!!

[davell]

Thanks a ton for the response. Although, i admit I was hoping for a different account of JJ. It can't exactly help his trade value either, as other teams have probably at least heard some of the same stuff you just said.

 

On the other hand, have you heard much about Yeoung Jin Kim yet from anyone? I'm probably grasping here, but figured I'd give it a shot. How about Antigua, Jung, and Kirk? Did you get to see any of them pitch this year? Those are 3 guys that can (and have in lots of cases) shown up near the bottom of top 30 lists. Antigua, in particular, was seen as a guy who had breakout potential this past year, but he seemed to struggle somewhat at Peoria for a while, then after he seemed to have gotten it together, he had shoulder problems near the end of the season. Is it possible that his frame just isn't built for starting possibly? I didn't hear much on Kirk, for the most part, so any info on him would be great. He did appear to have a very nice K/9 ratio and supposedly has above average stuff for a lefty. Jung was a guy that REALLY intrigued me, since he had a relatively short span(around midseason, probably a 5-6 start stretch) that he was basically untouchable, with a K/9 rate that went through the roof during that time. Then, he too developed a shoulder problem and was shut down. Is he considered by you to be a better prospect than Rhee at this stage?

 

Sorry for all the questions by the way. It's just really cool to find guys with first hand knowledge of our guys.

[B-Squared]

No problem at all. I enjoy all this stuff just as much as you do. Those three guys are all very intriguing. To start with Antigua, I REALLY REALLY liked him after the '09 season. I saw him pitch probably a half-dozen times that season and a couple more this year. He had an excellent changeup which really was a go-to, probably the best change in the system. Like you, I thought he was poised for a breakout season this year but really leveled off. Yea his strikeouts were up a little, but so was his WHIP. It's also definitely possible I overreacted to his mediocre season and lack of progress and didn't include him here. Still wouldn't right him off yet.

 

The Asian scouting. Yea I've seen Jung and I know that right now, the Cubs are not overly excited about it. IMO, it seems like scouts are higher on him than the people within the organization. Part of that might be because of his injuries and whatnot, I'm not 100% sure though. I have seen him pitch a couple times, but I'll be totally honest with you in saying that I didn't get a great look on him because of outside distractions (Beer being one lol!). I thought your question about Rhee and who is better was very interesting. I think right now it's sooo difficult to rank who's higher on the list because of all the injuries both guys have had, and without a great sample size for Rhee outside of this past season.

 

I like where your heads at with Kirk. I definitely think he's been an under the radar type guy, but has put up really nice numbers with the K's/9, ERA, etc. I wish he could've made more than 15 appearances last year and more than 3 at Peoria. I think we'd all have a little better idea then. But it does seem the Cubs like him internally.

 

Hope any of this helps!

[toonsterwu]

Nice, informative response. I'm taking a wait and see on Jay's character. It was interesting to me to see how the character issues rose dramatically after he turned professional. The reports out college were fairly positive on his character (at the very least, not negative). Now, certainly, colleges tend to hide some of these things, and they don't follow the guys everywhere. I guess, if I had any concern, it would be on the secondary aspect you mentioned, his coachability. It seems like he's a good teammate, but if he's more Ronny Cedeno uncoachable, that would be a bigger issue (even then, his raw arm would probably earn him a bullpen look).

 

My bigger issue with Jay right now, though, is that his breaking pitches have all seemingly regressed (leaving aside the fact that last year, Badler called Jay Jackson's curveball a plus pitch, most people acknowledged that his breaking balls were above average, with his changeup average, and this year, everything I've heard and seen is that his breaking balls don't get folks to miss too much). I guess, to tie this in with this post, I'm wondering if you've heard anything. It's certainly possible that some of the previous reports on his stuff came as a measure of success against younger hitters. I know some believe that he worked very hard on his control (which is why I'm very curious about your coachability comment - since it's all out in the open now, I wonder how much of that is the issues with Dennis Lewallyn) and just lost some of the bite on his breaking pitches.

 

Others here have mentioned it before, but I wouldn't mind seeing Jay work with Larry Rothschild on the slider.

 

As for your overall list and other comments, it was a good and fun read. Everyone judges differently. I really like Nick Struck a ton and had him in my top 25. Granted, a lot of it is the potential he has, as his performance was good, but not great, but as he continues the transition to FT pitching, I'll be very curious if he adds velo or if his stuff gets sharper.

 

I can't complain about Burke in the top 25. I didn't have him there, but he's young enough, and has a high enough ceiling, that I can understand the spot. There's few guys with his level of power potential. Has to show it soon, though. A bit surprised at Cales spot. I like him and believe he'll find a role in the bigs, but I'm just not sold an upper 80's fastball guy, even with the sink he gets, is a setup type guy, so had a hard time putting him that high myself, but I can understand it since he's safe and close to ready.

 

I'm just not sure what to think on Marquez Smith. Well, I know what I think, and that's putting him on the outside of my top 30. I still have my doubts that the power he showed this year is anywhere near "real". I really liked your comment on Rusin. I don't love Rusin as a prospect, but it's really hard to ignore the numbers he put up. You are far higher on Kurcz than I've seen (including my own list). I can understand it, though, as he was dang intriguing.

 

A bit surprised with your Flaherty comment - he doesn't have the range for short, but it seems like you are suggesting that he doesn't have the range for 2nd? I've seen him a few times play 2nd, and always thought he could stick. He wouldn't be great, but I always thought he could be decent there. That said, he's probably slated for a super-util Mark DeRosa/Jeff Baker type role.

 

I found the LeMahieu comment quite interesting. You specifically note 3rd, which makes me wonder how things shake out. I know there are those in the org that feel like he'd be great there, and view it as his more natural position than MI, but that would push Vitters over to first full-time (assuming both are at Tennessee) and it seems a bit early to make that move. I also have my doubts on DJ's bat at 3rd, but hey, here's hoping I'm wrong on that front and maybe this strengthening regimen that they do can work wonders with LeMahieu and Darvill. I had been thinking (for Tennessee) that DJ was slated to play 2nd, with Lake at short, Vitters at 3rd, and Flaherty in a utility/LF type role, with maybe Samson as the MI backup.

 

My issue with Dolis is that the secondary pitches are all ridiculously raw (which makes the fact that the Cubs kept him as a starter, even in AA, make a lot of sense, as it offered him the chances to work on things). Right now, I'm not sure he's any more intriguing than Francis Beltran was (granted, there was a brief period where Beltran had folks intrigued). I know he's flashed potential on the secondary pitches, but the consistency, by most accounts, isn't there.

 

Overall, though, I like the list. I even understand Guyer at 5 (I think Craig had him that high as well). The only one where I was a bit more surprised was Welington, and I was beating Castillo's horn for a long time. That said, he seems like a backup backstop, and it's a bit hard for me personally to put him that high.

 

Really nice list, though, and a good read.

[davell]

Again, thanks a ton Brian.

[toonsterwu]

Actually, I'd be curious about your take on Frank Batista. I'm a big fan in regards to being intrigued with him. Nate did note in the other thread, and it's fair, that his size is an issue, but he does carry a good fastball that can touch 93 and a solid slider. Body makes it tough to think that he'll add a lot more, stuff or velo. I haven't gotten a good grasp on whether or not he has a usable changeup of some sort.

 

Also curious if you had any thoughts on Ryan Searle.

[craig]

...The reports out college were fairly positive on his character (at the very least, not negative). ....

I'm not sure that BA type reports are very exhaustive on guys who aren't going in the top-150. BA had little to say about him, perhaps because their research on small-college guys who aren't going in the first three rounds just isn't that deep. (See hayden Simpson as another case?) It may be that Jackson lasted into the 7th or 8th round because some scouts knew that he did have some character baggage? But perhaps nobody made a point of highlighting a guy's character flaws in public if they didn't need to, and BA never bothered to ask? But it contributed to why a guy with his physical abilities lasted as long as he did?

I can't complain about Burke in the top 25. ...

 

Heh, I don't think I had him on my list of 50 at all. I'm guessing his chances of spending 100 days of big-league service may be higher as a pitcher than as a hitter.... He's been so persistently unable to hit, I think it's a lot easier to read 2009 as a fluke than as the norm, with 2010, 2008, 2007, and 2006 as the flukes.... But I hope I'm wrong and he somehow figures it out. I had him in my top 11 a year ago.

 

I'm just not sure what to think on Marquez Smith. .... I still have my doubts that the power he showed this year is anywhere near "real". ...

 

Smith slugged .574 with a .958 OPS at Iowa. I think it's beyond doubt that power like that is not "real" and he's not going to be a consistent .900+ OPS guy. If anybody did, the discussion wouldn't be whether he can make a top-25 list, it would be about how often he'd get MVP votes in the majors. But his HR's have gone 17, 15, and 20 over the last three years. That doesn't seem that flukey. He's been near or well beyond .800 OPS in each of his minor league seasons. And his overall minor-league career has been relatively consistent offensively: .283BA-.358OBP-.481slugging-.839OPS. It's not the inconceivable that he just might be a guy who could hit 15 HR's and post decent OBP/OPS numbers in the majors. He wasn't high on my list, but I understand the argument. Can anybody speak to his defense? If Aram was to get hurt, if Smith could play an acceptable 3B, he might be a lot more interesting than using a lot of Baker or Barney at 3B. And who knows, if Vitters doesn't progress very quickly, perhaps Smith might be a Casey-McGehee wannabe in a post-Aram 2012?

 

is certainly not going to

A bit surprised with your Flaherty comment - ... That said, he's probably slated for a super-util Mark DeRosa/Jeff Baker type role.

 

DeRosa started off as a defensive middle infielder. I think to make it as a super-utility guy, you've got to be good at SOMETHING. You can have bat-first utility guys, or good-at-everything defensive utility guys. But flaherty isn't going to make it as a utility guy unless he becomes a better hitter than he's shown. possible, yes. Certain, no.

 

I found the LeMahieu comment quite interesting. You specifically note 3rd, which makes me wonder how things shake out. I know there are those in the org that feel like he'd be great there, and view it as his more natural position than MI, but that would push Vitters over to first full-time (assuming both are at Tennessee) and it seems a bit early to make that move. ...

 

Yeah, I was also very interested by the note about Lemahieu going to the Colvin build-up program. I think that's great. The guy seems to be a natural gifted contact hitter. If he could sustain that while adding at least decent power, you've got a different prospect. Hope it happens. I wonder whether the 3B stuff is more a function of him looking bad at 2B? that wouldn't be good. May also be a deal where he knows his middle-infield agility is fringy, and that if he bulks up it will be unambiguously unacceptable. Maybe he's better off to forget it, to build up and get strong enough for some power, but he can't both add power and play 2b at the same time, it's either one or the other. When a guy is struggling to make it to the majors in any useful role, I wouldn't much worry about conflicting with Vitters.

 

My issue with Dolis is that the secondary pitches are all ridiculously raw ...

 

Absolutely fair. It's probably worth considering that he's only been pitching for a little over two years. So he doesn't have nearly the experience that similar-aged guys like Archer and Cabrera have. A lot of guys who end up decent don't have consistent breaking balls after two seasons. (Zambrano included...) That's kind of my hope for Dolis, at any rate, that he's got more improvement left than the normal 22-year-old AA guy based on is extreme inexperience.

.

[THISisTHEyear09]

From AZPHIL:

2010 CUBS TOP 15 PROSPECTS:

 

 

 

1. Chris Archer, RHP (2006 5th Round by Cleveland Indians - Clayton HS - Clayton, NC) - age 22 - 6‘3 185

 

 

 

COMMENT: A 5th round pick of the Cleveland Indians out of a North Carolina HS in 2006, Archer opted to turn pro ($161K bonus) instead of playing college baseball at NC State. He was one of three pitchers acquired by the Cubs from the Tribe for IF-OF Mark DeRosa in January 2009, and was considered a high risk/high reward type of prospect at the time. Archer was actually a raw talent from the gitgo, with three mediocre seasons in the Indians farm system 2006-08. He had major control issues even before he was acquired by the Cubs, leading the South Atlantic League in walks with 84 in 2008. He repeated Lo-A (at Peoria) in 2009 and continued to struggle with walks, issuing 66 free passes in 108 IP. Archer was then assigned to the Cubs AZ Instructional League squad post-2009 to work on improving his command & control, and he definitely benefited from the instruction, as the young Carolinian was named the Cubs 2010 Minor League Pitcher of the Year after going 15-3 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.17 WHIP and a Cubs minor league leading 149 K in 142.1 IP combined at Daytona and Tennessee. While he still issues too many walks (66 in 2010), he did improve his BB/IP rate significantly this past season (all the way down to 3.24 in 15 games at A+ Daytona, before going up to a 5.01 BB/IP rate in 13 GS after a promotion to AA Tennessee). The 6’3 185 Archer throws a mid-90’s fastball, a wipe-out slider, and a decent change-up, and projects as a top of the rotation starter at the big league level IF he can keep his walks and pitch count under control. He was supposed to pitch for the Mesa Solar Sox in the Arizona Fall League post-2010, but plans were changed when he was named to the Team USA squad that has been playing in the Pan American Games Qualifying Tournament in Puerto Rico. Archer is a lock to get added to the Cubs MLB 40-man roster by the 11/20 roster-filing deadline, and he will likely be the 2011 Opening Day starter at Tennessee after experiencing his first big league Spring Training.

 

 

Projection: Ace

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2. Brett Jackson, OF (2009 1st Round – Cal) – age 22 - 6‘2 210

 

 

 

COMMENT: Jackson hit the ground running after signing with the Cubs in July 2009, hitting 318/418/488 with 8 HR in just 53 games and 249 PA at three stops (Mesa, Boise, and Peoria). Jackson was on fire at Peoria (7 HR in 26 games) when he developed tendonitis in his wrist that shut him down for a month, causing him to miss the Midwest League playoffs. He didn’t show any ill effects in 2010, however, getting an NRI with the big club to Spring Training, before hitting 297/395/493 with 32 doubles, 14 triples, and 12 HR, with 73/126 BB/K in 580 PA, and 30/11 SB/CS (combined) at Daytona and Tennessee. He just recently joined the Mesa Solar Sox in the Arizona Fall League after playing for Team USA in the Pan American Games Qualifying Tournament in Puerto Rico. Jackson has a funky swing that involves a big leg kick, but he makes up for it with plus-bat speed. He is a hyper-aggressive defender and an outstanding ball-hawk--a “natural” CF, but with (at best) an average arm. He has above-average speed and is an aggressive base-runner who likes to take chances. He has HR power, hits LHP and RHP about equally-well, and is fairly patient at the plate (104 BB in 829 career PA 2009-10), although he does strike out a lot (182 K in 181 minor league games). Right now he projects as a top of the order hitter (probably a lead-off man), although that could certainly change depending on the roster and lineup construction when he arrives in Chicago. Jackson will almost certainly get another NRI to big league camp in 2011, and then will probably begin the season back at AA Tennessee. Like Starlin Castro in 2010, B. Jackson could get called up to Chicago from AA at any time next season, although at present there does not appear to be a spot for him on the Cubs 25-man roster. He does not have to be added to an MLB 40-man roster until after the 2012 season.

 

 

Projection: Starting CF

 

 

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3. Trey McNutt, RHP (2009 32nd Round - Shelton State CC) - age 21 - 6‘4 205

 

 

 

COMMENT: McNutt was signed by the Cubs out of an Alabama JC in 2009, getting an “over-slot” bonus of $115K (“7th Round money“) to go pro. Over the course of one month of the 2009 season and one full season (2010), McNutt has gone 13-2 with a 2.19 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, allowing just 107 hits and 52/160 BB/K in 144 IP, rocketing through the Cubs system all the way to AA Tennessee by the end of his first full season in pro ball at the ripe old age of 21. He finished 2nd among the Cubs minor league pitchers in strikeouts in 2010 with 132, behind only Minor League Pitcher of the Year Chris Archer. The 6’4 205 McNutt features a fastball that tops out at 98, a hard-breaking slider, and a change-up. He will likely begin the 2011 season back at AA Tennessee, and he projects as a top of the rotation starter or closer at the MLB level.

 

Projection: 3rd-4th Starter

 

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4. Brandon Guyer, OF (2007 5th Round – Virginia) – age 24 - 6‘1 220

 

 

 

COMMENT: After spending the first two months of the 2008 season rehabbing from elbow surgery at Fitch Park, Guyer was assigned to Peoria where he hit 269/331/498 with 14 HR and 19/63 BB/K in 88 games. A strong AZ Instructional League season post-2008 earned him a “challenge” promotion to AA Tennessee to start the 2009 season, but he struggled there (190/236/291 in 57 games and 205 PA) and was demoted to Daytona, where caught-fire and hit 347/407/453, with 34/67 BB/K in 73 games and 305 PA. He was assigned to Tennessee out of Minor League Camp in 2010, and hit 344/398/588 with 39 doubles, six triples, and 12 HR in 410 PA, with 30/3 SB/CS, earning him the Cubs Minor League Player of the Year Award. He is presently playing winter ball with Aragua in the Venezuelan Winter League, where he is hitting 357/449/476. Guyer is built like an NFL running back, and plays a “no fear” crash & burn outfield defense in the tradition of Eric Byrnes and Reed Johnson, laying his body on the line to make a play. He has above-average speed and is an aggressive base-runner and a good base-stealer. He played 3B in HS, but was moved to LF when he arrived at the University of Virginia, mainly because Ryan Zimmerman was already firmly ensconced at 3B for the Cavaliers, but also to take greater advantage of his speed & athleticism. Guyer saw action at all three OF positions for Tennessee in 2010, although it would not surprise me if the Cubs move him around the field a bit more next season at AAA Iowa, maybe getting him some PT at 3B and 1B. Guyer (like Archer) is a lock to get added to the Cubs 40-man roster by the 11/20 roster-filing deadline. Prior to 2010 I would have said that Guyer‘s future would probably be as an MLB “4th OF“ (and given the Cubs roster construction, that might still be the case), but I now believe he can be an everyday MLB outfielder, possibly as the eventual roster replacement for Marlon Byrd.

 

Projection: Starting OF

 

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5. Josh Vitters, 3B (2007 1st Round - Cypress, HS - Cypress, CA) - age 21 - 6‘2 200

 

 

 

COMMENT: Vitters was the Cubs #1 draft pick in 2007 (3rd overall pick), and the Cubs signed him just prior to the 8/15 deadline (Vitters had signed an NCAA NLI to attend Arizona State). He was sick the latter part of his senior year in high school, and reported to Fitch Park in August 2007 weak and out of shape. He didn't look much better in the 2007 AZ Instructional League, and then he had a sore hand in Spring Training 2008 that delayed the start of his season. But once he got healthy, Vitters showed what he could do with the bat. He hit 328/365/498 in 61 games at Boise, and was named the Northwest League's #1 prospect by Baseball America. He began the 2009 season at Peoria, where he hit 316/351/535 while going on a mid-May HR binge (he hit 15 HR in 70 games at Peoria). That got him a promotion to Daytona, where he struggled (hitting 238/260/344 in 50 games). He went to the Arizona Fall League (AFL) post-2009 and hit 360/385/460, and then he got an NRI to Spring Training with the big club this past February. He returned to Daytona on Opening Day 2010, hitting 291/350/445 before receiving a mid-season promotion to AA Tennessee, where he struggled, hitting just 223/292/383. However, he hit 303/395/636 over his final ten games at Tennessee before suffering a season-ending injury (broken hand after getting hit by a pitch) on July 25th. He returned to action (three games) with the Cubs AZ Instructional League team in October, and then joined the Mesa Solar Sox (AFL), where he is presently hitting 242/278/394 while playing both 3B and 1B. Vitters is an aggressive hitter, walking only 49 times in 1178 career minor league PA, although he hasn’t struck out all that much for a power-hitting prospect, either (192 K spread over four seasons). Only 21 years old, Vitters is just an average runner, but he has outstanding bat speed and plus-power and should develop into a 25+ HR guy. He has the actions of a third-baseman and he looks like a third-baseman, but he needs to spend as much time working on his defensive play at 3B as he does working on his hitting (nobody enjoys BP more than he does). It’s possible that Vitters could eventually end up at 1B (he played 1B for the first time in his career at Instructs, and now is playing both 1B and 3B in the AFL), and if it wasn’t that Alfonso Soriano is signed through 2014, I would think that the Cubs might seriously consider moving Vitters to LF. Vitters will probably get another NRI to Spring Training next February, and then will begin the 2011 season back at Tennessee, playing mostly 3B (and probably some 1B, too), while hitting 3rd in the Smokies batting order.

 

Projection: Starting 3B

 

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6. Jay Jackson, RHP (2008 9th Round - Furman) - age 23 - 6‘1 195

 

 

 

COMMENT: Jackson is an advanced pitcher who throws four or five different pitches for strikes, with a 94 MPH fastball and a curve being his two main "out" pitches (he also throws a slider and a change-up). He projects as a middle-of-the rotation starter at the MLB level. Jackson was drafted by the Cubs in 2008, and was promoted all the way up to Daytona (Florida State League) in August of that season, starting a game in the ’08 FSL playoffs. He began the 2009 season at AA Tennessee, before getting a disciplinary demotion back to Daytona in July. He didn’t pout or sulk, though, and got a September bump up to AAA Iowa. Combined at three stops, the 6’1 195 Jackson went 8-7 with a 2.98 ERA, and a 1.22 WHIP, allowing 109 hits (11 HR) in 127 IP, with a 46/127 BB/K (he was second among Cubs minor leaguers in strikeouts). Jackson spent the 2010 season at Iowa where he went 11-8 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, allowing 153 hits (20 HR) and 48/119 BB/K in 157.1 IP in what was just his second full-season in pro ball. The 6’1 right-hander was 4th among Cubs minor league pitchers in strikeouts (trailing only Archer, McNutt, and Alberto Cabrera) in 2010. He was moved to the bullpen for a while early in the season before finally settling in as an I-Cubs rotation starter in May. He really struggled in the second-half of the season, though, putting up a 6.20 ERA and 1.57 WHIP with a .293 Opponents BA and nine HR allowed in 61 IP post-ASB. Jackson was a #1 starter (“Friday Night Starter”) in college at Furman, but he also played CF when he wasn't pitching. He is an excellent all-around athlete (he was also an outstanding basketball player in HS), and being able to hit (255/283/431 with four doubles, a triple, and a HR in 57 minor league PA) and field should help him win a few more games than the average pitcher. With his basketball background, cool self-confidence, and the ability to hit (with power), he almost reminds me a bit of Bob Gibson. Jackson should get an NRI to Spring Training in 2011, and then depending on the needs of the big club and how he is throwing at AAA, he could get called up to Chicago at any time in 2011, but he most-likely will spend most or all of the season in the starting rotation at AAA.

 

Projection: 4th/5th Starter

 

=====================================================

 

 

 

7. Welington Castillo, C (2004 NDFA - Dominican Republic) - age 23 - 5‘10 210+

 

 

 

COMMENT: Castillo’s defense has mostly been more projection than performance so far. He has a strong arm, but too often he is careless and foolish with his throws and inconsistent with his receiving, resulting in a ton of errors and passed balls over the years. However, he cut his passed balls in half and improved his receiving at AA Tennessee in 2009, and held his own defensively at AAA Iowa this past season, too (although his receiving skills still need further upgrade), throwing out 39% of opposing base-stealers in 2010 (career 40% CS). He struggled at the plate pre-All Star Break at Tennessee in 2009 after hitting 287/337/383 at Daytona and Tennessee (combined) in 2008, but then he caught-fire post-ASB at Tennessee in ‘09, hitting 319/357/519 while clubbing 11 HR. He was assigned to the Mesa Solar Sox (Arizona Fall League) post-2009 (he hit 357/438/571 in the AFL), and then hit 255/317/498 with 17 doubles and 13 HR in just 272 PA (69 games) at AAA Iowa in 2010, before getting a September call-up to Chicago. Since he is only 23 years old and still somewhat raw, he could start the 2011 season back at AAA, but if he can build on his 2010 season at the plate and continue to improve his defense, he could be up with the Cubs to stay by the end of next season.

 

 

 

===================================================

 

 

 

8. Hak-Ju Lee, SS (2007 NDFA – South Korea) - age 19 - 6‘2 170

 

 

 

COMMENT: Lee got a $700K+ bonus (equivalent to “2nd round money”) from the Cubs in 2007, when he was considered the best HS player in South Korea. Named the #1 prospect in the Northwest League (NWL) post-2009 by Baseball America after hitting 330/399/420 at Boise, Lee followed that by hitting 282/364/351 with 22 doubles in 551 PA at Peoria in 2010 and 294/368/383 in AZ Instructional League play post-2010. He is one of the fastest players in the Cubs organization and can out-run a throw to 1st base if an infielder doesn’t play a ground ball aggressively. He also is a big-time base-stealer who led the NWL in stolen bases in 2009 (25 SB in just 61 games), before heisting 32 more at Peoria in 2010. A “natural” shortstop with plus-range and a decent arm (he had TJS post-2008), Lee is still raw defensively (61 errors in 183 career minor league games), but he has shown improvement as of late (he did not commit an error in 11 AZ Instructional League games post-2010, while making several outstanding plays in the field). Lee was a scrawny 17-year old when he first arrived at Fitch Park for Instructs post-2008, but he has put on some muscle over the past couple of seasons and now hits the ball with more authority. A left-handed hitter, Lee’s stroke is somewhat similar to Ichiro’s. He waits until the last second and then sprays the ball all over the field while cheating out of the box toward 1st base with most every swing. As he continues to mature physically he could develop some incidental HR power. He will likely spend the 2010 season at Daytona, playing SS and hitting lead-off. If he continues to progress, Lee could eventually force Starlin Castro to move to 2B.

 

 

 

====================================================

 

 

 

9. Chris Carpenter, RHP (2008 3rd Round – Kent State) - age 24 - 6‘4 220

 

 

 

COMMENT: A 6’4 220 RHP, Carpenter had TJS in college, and began his pro career somewhat unimpressively in 2008, going 4-2 with a 4.64 ERA while allowing 34 hits (although only two HR) and 23/25 BB/K in 33 IP (combined) at Mesa (AZL Cubs) and Boise. However, he had a solid AZ Instructional League post-2008 and opened the 2009 season at Peoria, where he went 4-3 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, with only 55 hits allowed and a 33/60 BB/Kin 73.2 IP. He then got a mid-season promotion to Daytona, going 2-1 with a 1.44 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP in five starts. That got him another promotion, this time to AA Tennessee, where he was 0-3 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in seven starts. Overall, he fanned 118 hitters, putting him 4th among Cubs minor league pitchers in strikeouts in ’09. He had a sore arm at Minor League Camp 2010 and was left at Extended Spring Training at the start of the season, before getting moved-up to AA Tennessee at the end of April. He was promoted to AAA Iowa in August, and went a combined 8-6 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, allowing eight HR with 57/112 BB/K in 134.2 IP (combined) between AA and AAA He was assigned to the Mesa Solar Sox in the AFL post-2010, and has been used exclusively out of the bullpen for the Solar Sox so far. Carpenter features a 92-94 MPH fastball, a curve, and a change-up. He probably will get an NRI to Spring Training in 2011, and he will almost certainly begin the 2011 regular season back at Iowa. Whether the recent move to the bullpen is temporary or permanent is still TBD.

 

 

 

=====================================================

 

 

 

10. Ryan Flaherty, IF-OF (2008 Supplemental 1st Round - Vanderbilt) - age 24 - 6‘5 220

 

 

 

COMMENT: Selected with the compensation draft pick the Cubs got for losing FA catcher Jason Kendall to MIL after the 2007 season, Flaherty played SS at Vanderbilt, 2B with Team USA, SS at Boise in 2008, SS, 2B, and 3B at Peoria in 2009, 3B and 2B at Daytona and Tennessee in 2010, and 1B-2B-3B-LF for the Mesa Solar Sox in the AFL post-2010. So his future is probably as an offensive-first multi-positional IF-OF. He hit 276/344/470 with 20 HR in 131 games at Peoria in 2009 (309/372/498 post-ASB), and then hit 271/339/418 with 36 doubles, 10 HR and 72 RBI, and 51/86 BB/K in 559 PA combined between Daytona and Tennessee in 2010. He is presently hitting 310/429/379 for the Solar Sox (AFL). At 6’5 220, Flaherty does have HR power, and if he can learn to play a passable corner-OF, he could morph into a left-handed hitting version of Mark DeRosa. While he mashes right-handed pitching, he struggles big-time against lefties, and so he could end-up as a LH platoon guy if and when he reaches the big leagues. Son of a college baseball coach, Flaherty is a savvy and mature player who understands how to play the game the right way. I would expect Flaherty to begin the 2011 season at Tennessee and play various positions (1B-2B-3B-LF) for the Smokies.

 

 

 

Also Top 5 2010 Draft Prospects:

1. Hayden Simpson

2. Reggie Golden

3. Austin Kurcz

4. Ryan Hartman

5. Matt Szcur

[toonsterwu]

I never read the BA stuff on Jay Jackson coming out. I think the only mag/site that I recall reading about Jay Jackson was PGcrosschecker. That said, there were numerous reports/comments when Jay came out that suggested that, at the very least, he didn't have bad character. Certainly, as noted, colleges often hide stuff/don't know enough, and that might be the case here.

 

Just to be clear, I wouldn't have a huge issue with Burke at 25, but I also didn't have him in my top 40 either.

 

Marquez is viewed as a decent-average defender at 3rd. He likely won't be a Gold Glove type, but defensively, he should be fine (and better than say, Josh Vitters, unless Josh improves in that regard).

 

Super-util may have been the wrong choice for me there. I simply meant utility player.

 

I could be wrong, but I think LeMahieu prefers to stay in the MI, but the Cubs view him as a better fit at 3rd, if the bat comes around (natural probably wasn't the best word choice earlier). As for LeMahieu's bat, the bigger issue is how the swing adjustment impacts his ability to hit for average. If he can add power and keep his contact ability, then great, but most people seem to suggest that he has to fundamentally alter his swing, which would seem to put at risk his contact ability.

 

This leads to a total side point - the reason I am unwilling to put LeMahieu ahead of Flaherty is because I have a hard time seeing DJ add power in general, but specifically, add power without sacrificing his "hit tool" (and along with that, I think DJ needs to add power to have a good shot at sticking in the bigs). Most will agree that DJ will never be a prolific power guy even if he does add it, so we're essentially looking at ... Flaherty level power, but having to make a lot of changes to get there. Sure, he's 2 years younger, but that's a lot of risk, IMO. That said, if one thinks DJ can add said power and become Flaherty-ish offensively, then okay, I can understand slotting DJ ahead.

[craig]

.... the reason I am unwilling to put LeMahieu ahead of Flaherty is because I have a hard time seeing DJ add power in general, but specifically, add power without sacrificing his "hit tool" (and along with that, I think DJ needs to add power to have a good shot at sticking in the bigs). Most will agree that DJ will never be a prolific power guy even if he does add it, so we're essentially looking at ... Flaherty level power, but having to make a lot of changes to get there. Sure, he's 2 years younger, but that's a lot of risk, IMO. That said, if one thinks DJ can add said power and become Flaherty-ish offensively, then okay, I can understand slotting DJ ahead.

 

Interesting and fair points.

 

I think I might see it a little differently. I think Lemahieu is a pure contact hitter. Yes, I assume that's partly a function of swinging aggressively and having a small and low-power stroke. So maybe if he takes some pitches, and swings for more power, he'll be K'ing like anybody else. Possible.

 

But my feeling is that the "hit tool" is perhaps more intrinsic. It involves the ability to recognize ball movement and to respond. I think if you've got that, you can potentially adjust your stroke but still have the innate gift. Yes, obviously if you take a somewhat more power-oriented swing, you'll miss more often. But I don't think he'd necessarily lose much of the tool. (He might lose some average, though; I guess that's a finesse distinction.)

 

2nd, I think that HR's count as hits, too. If a player adds ten HR's, ten HR's are ten hits and for a 500-AB player, ten extra hits is 20 points of BA and OBP. Adding some HR's is not necessarily bad for batting average; it can help.

 

3rd, I think the two years of age difference is pretty significant. Being two years younger, Lem. has a chance to improve meaningfully. I don't have the two very different, so it's not like I'm arguing for Lem to be way ahead of Flaherty if at all. But Flaherty better get something going pretty soon. He's dropped quite a bit on my list from a year ago, because he hasn't improved with time as I'd hoped. The same may happen with Lem, who knows. But being a young man, there's at least the chance to hope.

 

I guess I think guys who just have the gift of being good contact hitters, I think they can make adjustments for the better. Can choose to add more patience; can build themselves into more power. If Lemahieu has the gift, he may have the capacity to evolve offensively in a way that is less possible for guys who just have trouble putting the bat on the ball.

[B-Squared]

Hey guys-

 

Sorry for the delayed response, been under the weather plus busy, bad combo.

 

Anyways, on Batista, I'd take Nate's opinion as way more credible than mine because he has seem him so much more than I have and I have been unable to get a good enough look at him. But yes, size has been somewhat an issue from what I've seen and heard.

 

For Ryan Searle, it looked like he was about ready to climb through the ranks after a stellar 2009, (amazing 1st half), but obviously took a step back this year. He was an enigma in Ptown this year, had some brilliant starts sprinkled into mostly mediocre-to-poor outings. Also, what I can tell you about Searle is that if there was a survey asking Cubs front office, coaching, and player personnel which player they would most like to punch in the face, Searle would be at or at the very-least near the top. You could probably guess his maturity level wasn't where they would like simply by knowing that he took a step down this past season. He is still pretty young though, so hopefully it'll get better.

 

Understand your concerns on Dolis. Out-pitches are EXTREMELY raw, but he has chances to develop. Just really like his power arm. I guess time will tell if he can fine-tune his over pitches and is worth a decently high ranking. (Did thoroughly appreciate a Francis Beltran reference btw!)

 

And for Jay Jackson, I'm sorry if I made him sound like the anti-Christ, didn't mean to totally trash the kid, but this is just what I have heard about him from several credible outlets. The two baseball concerns that were mentioned in the thread (too many HRs/9 and the offspeed stuff not being crisp) are also legitimate concerns about him. I'm assuming he'll start at Triple-A again. I wonder how they'll work out the kinks with him, and if they'll shake up the pitching coach roles in the system. I know Mike Mason has been there for 3 years now, but I also know that the club absolutely loves Dennis Lewallyn, so we'll see how that shapes up, especially with Dancy likely moving up to manage Iowa.

 

And yes I'm really intrigued to see how this off-season regimen with LeMahieu works out, and if they stick to it. Last year, around mid-season, the plan was to for-sure move Vitters to 1st base full-time. Now I'm not so sure that's the case. They want to try him there, but still want him to take a lot of/most of his reps at 3rd. Maybe it's because of the pending void at 1st base at the ML level right now, and going the long-term free agent/trade route there. We'll see.

 

Also, I love Brandon Guyer and probably have him higher than most, but I think he's still a Top 5 for us. Every person I talk to that has had the chance to see him on an everyday basis just raves about the guy. Bill Dancy voted him for League MVP this past year and is just enamored with the guy. I know Smokies broadcaster Mick Gillispie echos the sentiment. I know he's not a scout or anything, but as a broadcaster myself, you usually get a pretty good feel about personnel when you're around them so often. I've talked to Ryne Sandberg (Go Lehigh ha!) personally about Brandon on a couple occasions off-record, and there wasn't a negative thing to be said. Hopefully he can avoid that slow start that has plagued him the last 2 years.

 

Would love other people to post their lists and agreements and disagreements on mine! Thanks!

 

One more thing, I know the Padres really really like Brett Jackson and have inquired about him if the Cubs try to nab Adrian Gonzalez. Would you trade B-Jax and two other Top 10ers (excluding Archer, McNutt and Vitters) on the list for A-Gon, contingent upon him signing an extension with the Cubs? Just curious to see where everyone stands on this, have had an on-going argument with people on this matter. Thanks!

[davell]

If I actualy knew the Cubs would put their money where there mouth has been on spending more on prospects and development, I would absolutely say yes to that question. In fact, I'd give up ONE of B Jackson, Archer or McNutt, one of Vitters or Lee and one of anyone else I haven't mentioned.

 

That said, until I know that the Cubs ARE committed to developing the farm, I'd have to hesitate a little, although I think I'd probably wind up doing it anyway.

[CUBZ99]

 

One more thing, I know the Padres really really like Brett Jackson and have inquired about him if the Cubs try to nab Adrian Gonzalez. Would you trade B-Jax and two other Top 10ers (excluding Archer, McNutt and Vitters) on the list for A-Gon, contingent upon him signing an extension with the Cubs? Just curious to see where everyone stands on this, have had an on-going argument with people on this matter. Thanks!

 

Absolutely. Soriano is still with the team for a few years, Byrd is signed for another two years, and if the Cubs acquired AGON they could live with Colvin/Fukudome in RF. Sure B Jackson could be good, but I don't think he will be anywhere as good as AGON.

[toonsterwu]

A lot of us posted our lists in the 2010 Cubs Top prospect list thread. I'll probably post a revised list at some point to get that thread going some more.

 

I would trade B. Jax in that scenario. Wouldn't love it, but sure, I'd make that move. If Castro "owns" SS I'm still in the camp that I'd be more curious with a Hak-ju Lee move to CF (than to 2nd base).

 

Wasn't Jay's issues with Lewallyn? If so ... not sure that would be an ideal situation, but what is best for the organization should trump what is best for Jay. That said, unless there's a negative about Mike Mason, I'd keep him in Iowa.

 

I'd love to see Dancy at AAA. Any insight on who takes over the Smokies gig if that happens? Feels like an outside the org type move.

Edited November 16, 2010 by toonsterwu

[B-Squared]

Pure speculation, but Casey Kopitzke could be a good possibility for AA if Dancy moves up. Not a ton of experience yet, but he's very well thought of by the front office and managing in the AFL this fall certainly hasn't hurt his cause, being able to manage prospects closer to the bigs than what he has been dealing with the last couple years.

[craig]

..

 

Wasn't Jay's issues with Lewallyn? If so ... not sure that would be an ideal situation, but what is best for the organization should trump what is best for Jay. That said, unless there's a negative about Mike Mason, I'd keep him in Iowa.

....

 

Jackson's demotion followed an incident involving Lewallyn. That might not mean working under Lewallyn would be bad for him. If the guy has unprofessional habits, it may help him to work under a coach who won't let him get away with being a slacker and cutting corners.

[TruffleShuffle]

Jackson's demotion followed an incident involving Lewallyn. That might not mean working under Lewallyn would be bad for him. If the guy has unprofessional habits, it may help him to work under a coach who won't let him get away with being a slacker and cutting corners.

 

right but if the two of them can't get along, then it's pointless to have them at the same level.

 

and if jackson is a goof-off who cuts corners, all of the coaches should be in a position to get him to shape up. you shouldn't just have one guy in the organization who is able to get a guy in his early 20s to shape up.

[B-Squared]

Honestly, Jay has issues with everyone though. Or better said, everyone has issues with Jay. So it is difficult to separate him from someone who he doesn't get along with. Pile all this on with second-half deflated velocity and less bite on his breaking stuff, it's a scary sight. Not liking at all the direction he could be headed towards.

 

Also, 40-man deadline coming up. Arch and Guyer our locks (maybe Marquez Smith too), I'd actually really like to see Austin Bibens-Dirkx get a shot. Don't want to lose him to R5, he can be extremelt deceptive and can pump it up to 93-94 if he comes out of pen, which can look even faster to the hitter. Wonder if Smit gets a shot too.

[toonsterwu]

Pure speculation, but Casey Kopitzke could be a good possibility for AA if Dancy moves up. Not a ton of experience yet, but he's very well thought of by the front office and managing in the AFL this fall certainly hasn't hurt his cause, being able to manage prospects closer to the bigs than what he has been dealing with the last couple years.

 

I love everything I've heard about Casey (I view him as "next" if Quade doesn't succeed)... but AA right away? Seems like an awful quick push, but I'd be fine with that.

[toonsterwu]

Honestly, Jay has issues with everyone though. Or better said, everyone has issues with Jay. So it is difficult to separate him from someone who he doesn't get along with. Pile all this on with second-half deflated velocity and less bite on his breaking stuff, it's a scary sight. Not liking at all the direction he could be headed towards.

 

Also, 40-man deadline coming up. Arch and Guyer our locks (maybe Marquez Smith too), I'd actually really like to see Austin Bibens-Dirkx get a shot. Don't want to lose him to R5, he can be extremelt deceptive and can pump it up to 93-94 if he comes out of pen, which can look even faster to the hitter. Wonder if Smit gets a shot too.

 

I asked Bruce Miles on an updated take of the Rule 5 in his blog a few days ago and he thought that (along with Archer) Guyer, Cabrera, Smit would get protected, with Marquez borderline. I want Cabrera protected (along with Guyer/Archer. Smit and Smith ... I go back and forth about as of now. If there's the space, then I'd protect all of them, but they'll likely leave a spot or two open. Between the two, I think I'd rather protect Smith ... but I'd be fine either way. I would still love to see Marquez pick up an OF glove and get some work out there.

 

My hunch is that Bibens-Dirkx isn't the type of guy that gets snapped up in the Rule 5. I'm not sure I'd be terribly disappointed losing him. Wasn't his velo peaking upper 80's and occasionally only in the mid-80's? I don't recall seeing him pitch this year (or maybe I wasn't paying enough attention) but I distinctly recall some people saying that, which goes in-line somewhat with prior reports on him. His deception helps him out a lot, but in the bigs, he feels like a middle relief arm at best, and we've got enough guys to rotate in there that if we lose him, I don't think I'd be that concerned.