MacPahil: Young players are not untouchable...

[17 Seconds]

It's best just to not use UZR as evidence, period.

 

I agree, but the only reason I cited it was because it goes with what people having been saying on orioleshangout, which is that his defense has gotten bad.

[Old Style]

Zambrano for Pie.

 

I'm assuming that you mean for the delicious pastry, because that's a trade I could get behind.

What if it's for Felix Pie and an apple pie?

 

Throw in some ice cream to that and you have a deal!

What flavor?

[dew1679666265]

(and even that is only if you consider his FB/HR ratio this year to be unlucky).

 

Just out of curiosity, if not bad luck, why do you think he has fewer fly balls leaving the park than in the past?

[lumafia]

(and even that is only if you consider his FB/HR ratio this year to be unlucky).

 

Just out of curiosity, if not bad luck, why do you think he has fewer fly balls leaving the park than in the past?

 

Injury or mechanical issue?

[dew1679666265]

(and even that is only if you consider his FB/HR ratio this year to be unlucky).

 

Just out of curiosity, if not bad luck, why do you think he has fewer fly balls leaving the park than in the past?

 

Injury or mechanical issue?

 

He's actually hitting a few more flyballs than his career average and his LD% is right in line with his career, so he's not really hitting pitches softer.

[Clem Fandango]

Whoops, this was meant to be in the Lilly thread Edited July 20, 2010 by The Logan

[17 Seconds]

(and even that is only if you consider his FB/HR ratio this year to be unlucky).

 

Just out of curiosity, if not bad luck, why do you think he has fewer fly balls leaving the park than in the past?

 

because he isn't hitting fly balls far enough to go out of the park?

 

if a guy hits 20 straight medium depth fly balls, is he unlucky that none of them left the park?

[sneakypower]

that's asinine and oblivious

 

at any rate, his hit chart really shows how miserable his luck's been

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?c_id=bal&playerID=455976&statType=1

[TruffleShuffle]

that's asinine and oblivious

 

at any rate, his hit chart really shows how miserable his luck's been

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?c_id=bal&playerID=455976&statType=1

 

haha yeah i was pretty sure that assertion was wrong, but didn't know how to prove it... good to see mlb.com still has those hit charts.

[Banedon]

that's asinine and oblivious

 

at any rate, his hit chart really shows how miserable his luck's been

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?c_id=bal&playerID=455976&statType=1

 

haha yeah i was pretty sure that assertion was wrong, but didn't know how to prove it... good to see mlb.com still has those hit charts.

 

What specifically in those hit charts proves his bad luck? I'm just not sure what I'm looking for...

[Tracer Bullet]

that's asinine and oblivious

 

at any rate, his hit chart really shows how miserable his luck's been

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?c_id=bal&playerID=455976&statType=1

 

haha yeah i was pretty sure that assertion was wrong, but didn't know how to prove it... good to see mlb.com still has those hit charts.

 

What specifically in those hit charts proves his bad luck? I'm just not sure what I'm looking for...

 

what I'm seeing, and this may not be quite right, is a bunch of "f"s and "d"s at the wall or warning track at Camden Yards (I didn't look at the other venues). When you click on Fly Outs, you see that he has 9 or so fly outs that were caught at the warning track or at the wall. He has 3 balls hit over 400' that were fly outs. When you click on Doubles and see that only 2 didn't make the warning track. So he's had 13 balls that hit the warning track or the wall and ended up being doubles instead of HRs (several of which appear to have hit a bird or something because they seem to be well beyond the fence). And for good measure, he's had a single that landed on or just short of the warning track.

 

So, just at home, 20-25 balls that have made it to the warning track or the fence but were not HRs (on the other hand, 2 of his HRs at home barely cleared the short porch in right). That seems like bad luck. But I have no comparison. Maybe for guys that have 20+ HR power, this is normal. Doesn't seem like it though.

[17 Seconds]

that's asinine and oblivious

 

at any rate, his hit chart really shows how miserable his luck's been

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?c_id=bal&playerID=455976&statType=1

 

it's asinine and oblivious to think that hr/fb ratio on it's own doesn't prove anything? ha

[dew1679666265]

(and even that is only if you consider his FB/HR ratio this year to be unlucky).

 

Just out of curiosity, if not bad luck, why do you think he has fewer fly balls leaving the park than in the past?

 

because he isn't hitting fly balls far enough to go out of the park?

 

if a guy hits 20 straight medium depth fly balls, is he unlucky that none of them left the park?

 

Why are those fly balls no longer going far enough to be home runs, though (if that's the case)? What's changed from the past few years and this year that makes him hit about the same number of fly balls, but have a smaller number of them leave the park? The number of fly balls hasn't really decreased, nor has his ability to make good contact (LD% is right on his career average).

 

If he were injured, it would stand to reason that some of his other numbers would have taken a hit as well, but they haven't. I understand this doesn't prove that he's gotten a lot of bad luck this year, but that's easily the most likely explanation.

[lumafia]

(and even that is only if you consider his FB/HR ratio this year to be unlucky).

 

Just out of curiosity, if not bad luck, why do you think he has fewer fly balls leaving the park than in the past?

 

because he isn't hitting fly balls far enough to go out of the park?

 

if a guy hits 20 straight medium depth fly balls, is he unlucky that none of them left the park?

 

Why are those fly balls no longer going far enough to be home runs, though (if that's the case)? What's changed from the past few years and this year that makes him hit about the same number of fly balls, but have a smaller number of them leave the park? The number of fly balls hasn't really decreased, nor has his ability to make good contact (LD% is right on his career average).

 

If he were injured, it would stand to reason that some of his other numbers would have taken a hit as well, but they haven't. I understand this doesn't prove that he's gotten a lot of bad luck this year, but that's easily the most likely explanation.

 

His HR/FB is down from 7.4% to 6.9%. Not a huge difference. The .5% difference isn't dramatic if you consider the fact that the entire American League is down 1.2% from last year.

[dew1679666265]

His HR/FB is down from 7.4% to 6.9%. Not a huge difference. The .5% difference isn't dramatic if you consider the fact that the entire American League is down 1.2% from last year.

 

Fangraphs lists his HR/FB percentage currently at 5.4%. It was 8% last year and his career HR/FB is 10.2%. Again, that's all according to Fangraphs.

 

Besides bad luck, the other most likely reason for the drop over the last two years, and especially this year, is a change in his swing. Like with an injury, though, it seems that if his mechanics had been tweaked enough to make that big a dropoff, some of his other peripherals would have been affected as well.