Re: What do you predict the 2011 Cubs will look like?

[dew1679666265]

I think Lee is going to be far closer to Gonzalez money than Dunn money, but it brings up an interesting point. What if you paid up for Lee and then overwhelmed a team for someone like Billy Butler? You think Moore would turn down Colvin, J Jackson, and Vitters with Hosmer getting close? Use the Nady-of-the-year to platoon with Kosuke until Jackson is ready?

 

That's a very interesting idea. Though honestly, I don't know that overpaying for a guy like Cliff Lee is necessary in that scenario. We have enough good pitching that we could hold off on that and not take the chance of paying a guy for very unproductive years.

 

That said, I'm not sure I want to give that much for a guy like Butler. He looks to have a ton of potential, but it appears his value is hurt by lackluster fielding and his minor league numbers look pretty up and down at a quick glance.

[Magnetic Curses]

too lazy to read the thread, but besides lee, what pitchers will be available? i'd like at least one top of the rotation guy.

[Guest]

You might want to glance again at Butler's minor league numbers. There's pretty much nothing but awesome there.

[KaiserCesar]

too lazy to read the thread, but besides lee, what pitchers will be available? i'd like at least one top of the rotation guy.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/09/2011-mlb-free-agents.html

Bronson Arroyo (34) - $11MM club option with a $2MM buyout

Erik Bedard (32) - $8MM mutual option

Kris Benson (35)

Jeremy Bonderman (28)

Dave Bush (31)

Jose Contreras (39)

Kevin Correia (30)

Doug Davis (35) - $6.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout

Jorge De La Rosa (30)

Justin Duchscherer (33)

Shawn Estes (38)

Josh Fogg (34)

Jeff Francis (29) - $7MM club option

Freddy Garcia (35)

Jon Garland (31) - $6.75MM mutual option with a $600K buyout

Chad Gaudin (28)

Rich Harden (29) - $11MM mutual option with $1MM buyout

Aaron Harang (33) - $12.75MM club option with a $2MM buyout

Livan Hernandez (36)

Jason Jennings (32)

Hiroki Kuroda (36)

Cliff Lee (32)

Ted Lilly (35)

Rodrigo Lopez (35)

Kevin Millwood (36)

Sergio Mitre (30)

Brian Moehler (39)

Jamie Moyer (48)

Vicente Padilla (33)

Carl Pavano (35)

Brad Penny (33)

Andy Pettitte (39)

Tim Redding (33)

Nate Robertson (33)

Ben Sheets (32)

Jeff Suppan (36) - $12.75MM club option with a $2MM buyout

Brett Tomko (38)

Koji Uehara (36)

Javier Vazquez (34)

Brandon Webb (32)

Todd Wellemeyer (32)

Kip Wells (34)

Jake Westbrook (33)

Dontrelle Willis (29)

Chris Young (32) - $8.5MM club option

 

[KaiserCesar]

You might want to glance again at Butler's minor league numbers. There's pretty much nothing but awesome there.

 

Indeed, among other things that K rate looks astounding. I think his power will break out around his age 26 season in a couple of years, but I was trying to express some uncertainty there. Also consider that Tyler Colvin is worth about .2 wins less this year according to the fangraphs metric while playing much less.

[dew1679666265]

You might want to glance again at Butler's minor league numbers. There's pretty much nothing but awesome there.

 

Ok, my initial glance at his numbers sucked. He's been really, really good in the minors. I don't know that I'd give as much as you used as an example, but if we could pry him from Moore, that'd be really good.

 

That said, I much prefer baseball-reference to Fangraphs when looking at the minor leagues.

[CubsWin]

Here's hoping ownership agrees to eat a bunch of salary and Hendry a new, better GM can package Zambrano, Fukudome, Vitters, and others for Gonzalez and the Cubs can start over. :roll:

Fixed.

Fixed again.

 

Ricketts has already said Hendry will be with the Cubs next season, but I was hoping, so...

[Guest]

1) Dunn is older, but will sign a significantly shorter contract

 

There's likely to be a difference between his demands and what he gets, but reports are Dunn wants 4 years. I'd guess Gonzalez will re-up for 6-7 years tops. That's not all that significant. Especially if Gonzo goes 4-5 years with the idea of getting one more big contract after this one.

Dunn has said he wants four years, but has also already said he's willing to listen to three year offers. I seriously doubt he gets four.

 

2) The difference in production between Gonz & Dunn is less than the expected long-term and cheap production from the guys in that package (and short-term production in the case of Wells, who is extremely under-rated)

 

I don't want to talk down our prospects first off. I'd hate to give up any of those players, but there are significant questions about each of them, save for Wells.

 

However, Gonzalez has 6-7 WAR upside. Dunn hasn't been more than a 3.4 WAR player since 2004. Granted, Dunn and Wells together equal the same number of wins as Gonzalez's upside, but Dunn is likely to regress and perhaps quickly from here. Gonzalez is likely to get better. While Wells will likely also get better, we have an abundance of high quality pitchers ready for the majors and could take the hit of losing a couple of them in this trade.

 

I don't think Dunn turning 31-34 during his contract while Gonzo will be less than 30 for the first two years of the deal can be understated. Gonzo is also, I'd say, more likely to age well than Dunn (better walk and K rates for Gonzalez).

Gonzalez is likely to be older at the end of his contract than Dunn will be for his. The further out you have to forecast, the more uncertainty you have to be concerned about.

 

3) The difference in the amount required to lock up Gonzalez long-term and the amount being talked about to sign Dunn could be used to get another impact player like Cliff Lee all on its own.

 

In short, I'd much rather have Dunn + Cliffy + Wells + Vitters + ... than Gonzalez.

 

Dunn is asking for $15 mil a year and might get close to that with first base now being a proven position for him – he certainly will if he relents and becomes willing to go to an AL team to DH. The absolute max I could see Gonzalez getting is $25 mil a year and probably less in this economy. There's now way I can see us getting a Cliff Lee for no more than $10 mil a year.

 

I can understand not wanting to give up a lot of talent for one player, but with our farm system having nobody on the horizon at first base, we pretty much have to make a move for one. As much as I like Adam Dunn, I just don't see him being productive enough into his mid-30s to warrant the kind of money he's asking for and may very well get.

I'm thinking total contract value for AGonz will be around 6x25 ($150). Dunn will be around 3x16 ($48). You probably can't get Lee for $102 this offseason, but you can come pretty danged close. Obviously, that's looking at total value of the contracts and it wouldn't work in years 1 - 3. But you get the idea. The difference in the contracts can get you a $8M player in years 1-3 and a $25M player in years 4-6. Even if I'm well off on the contract amounts, there's still going to be an enormous difference in price there.

 

That's a HUGE difference in value. Combine that with the value Wells + prospects provide and I think you're better off with Dunn.

[TruffleShuffle]

yeah but you're looking at it as a 6 year deal for gonzalez versus a 3 year deal for dunn. if you're paying lee $10m a year his first 3 years - in which case you'd be giving him at least $20m a year for his last 3 years - and dunn $16m, that's $26m, which is definitely more than gonzalez will get.

 

plus most players are not going to accept much less money in the short term and then huge money long term.

[Guest]

yeah but you're looking at it as a 6 year deal for gonzalez versus a 3 year deal for dunn. if you're paying lee $10m a year his first 3 years - in which case you'd be giving him at least $20m a year for his last 3 years - and dunn $16m, that's $26m, which is definitely more than gonzalez will get.

I don't think Lee gets a six year deal, either.

 

I'm also not expecting the dollars to work out in years 1-3, as I explained above.

[dew1679666265]

yeah but you're looking at it as a 6 year deal for gonzalez versus a 3 year deal for dunn. if you're paying lee $10m a year his first 3 years - in which case you'd be giving him at least $20m a year for his last 3 years - and dunn $16m, that's $26m, which is definitely more than gonzalez will get.

I don't think Lee gets a six year deal, either.

 

I'm also not expecting the dollars to work out in years 1-3, as I explained above.

 

You think Gonzalez is likely to go for one 6 year deal instead of a 4 year deal with thoughts of a second huge contract? At 29 years old as of May 2011, I could see him signing a 4 year deal that runs through his age 33 year, then going for another 3-4 year deal with hopes that the economy rebounds by then. I also don't know how likely Gonzo is to get a full $25 million. If a team is willing to go 6/150 for Gonzo, the loser of those sweepstakes will probably be willing to go 4/60 for Dunn.

 

If we can get Dunn at 3/45, I'd be more open to signing him over Gonzo, especially if the Gonzalez sweepstakes get above about 4-5 years. I just think the only issue teams seemed to have the last time Dunn was a free agent is now nearly a non-issue (OF defense). I think teams will be a lot more interested in him now.

[dew1679666265]

I'm also not sure I'm a big fan of giving Cliff Lee even a 4/40 deal when he's 32 years old this month. He's very well worth it now, but I wonder if he'll stay good to very good through his age 36 season, much less 37-38.

[Guest]

I'm also not sure I'm a big fan of giving Cliff Lee even a 4/40 deal when he's 32 years old this month. He's very well worth it now, but I wonder if he'll stay good to very good through his age 36 season, much less 37-38.

118 strikeouts

9 walks

 

Yeah...that's pretty good.

 

 

Anyway, Lee was just an example of one way to reinvest that money. Heck, take the $8M difference between those guys in years 1-3 and buy yourself a boatload of interesting prospects in the draft / international free agency.

 

The key point is that you can make up the value difference between dunn and gonzalez in a number of ways, including the value of the players you send over to San Diego and however you choose to invest the difference between their contracts.

[TruffleShuffle]

I'm also not sure I'm a big fan of giving Cliff Lee even a 4/40 deal when he's 32 years old this month. He's very well worth it now, but I wonder if he'll stay good to very good through his age 36 season, much less 37-38.

 

according to fangraphs' player valuations - yeah i know, they're probably a bit inflated - and projecting out this year, lee has been worth almost $30m a year the last 3 years. so he's probably not that valuable, but if you look at his peers, he's been nearly as good as halladay the last 3 years, pretty much the same as sabathia. halladay was just given $20m/year in his mid 30s and sabathia was given $23m/year over 7 years. john lackey just got $16.5m/year from the red sox, a.j. burnett got the same, mark buehrle makes $13m/year, hell jeff suppan and randy wolf are making right around $10m/year.

 

if you called cliff lee's agent and offered $40m over 4 years, you'd very quickly hear a dial tone on the other end of the line. if we're talking 4 year contracts, he should probably be aiming for about $80m.

[shnsajax]

I'm also not sure I'm a big fan of giving Cliff Lee even a 4/40 deal when he's 32 years old this month. He's very well worth it now, but I wonder if he'll stay good to very good through his age 36 season, much less 37-38.

 

according to fangraphs' player valuations - yeah i know, they're probably a bit inflated - and projecting out this year, lee has been worth almost $30m a year the last 3 years. so he's probably not that valuable, but if you look at his peers, he's been nearly as good as halladay the last 3 years, pretty much the same as sabathia. halladay was just given $20m/year in his mid 30s and sabathia was given $23m/year over 7 years. john lackey just got $16.5m/year from the red sox, a.j. burnett got the same, mark buehrle makes $13m/year, hell jeff suppan and randy wolf are making right around $10m/year.

 

if you called cliff lee's agent and offered $40m over 4 years, you'd very quickly hear a dial tone on the other end of the line. if we're talking 4 year contracts, he should probably be aiming for about $80m.

 

Based on his style I think he is a guy who could last until he 40. With Lilly gone if we move Zambrano I would make a strong offer Lee.

 

I agree on the Butler part, you could maybe buy low on him this year.

Edited August 6, 2010 by shnsajax

[Guest]

btw - in Texas, he's had 5 starts and gone 43.1 IP.

 

That's nuts.

[shnsajax]

btw - in Texas, he's had 5 starts and gone 43.1 IP.

 

That's nuts.

 

They are going to ride him for every penny/inning this season.

[dew1679666265]

if you called cliff lee's agent and offered $40m over 4 years, you'd very quickly hear a dial tone on the other end of the line. if we're talking 4 year contracts, he should probably be aiming for about $80m.

 

Yeah, the 4/40 thing was based on what Tim was saying and is probably the minimalest of minimal amounts you'd pay him. He's probably getting $15 mil as a minimum after the year. And with the way the Rangers are probably going to ride him down the stretch, I'd start thinking about arm issues.

[UMFan83]

btw - in Texas, he's had 5 starts and gone 43.1 IP.

 

That's nuts.

 

They are going to ride him for every penny/inning this season.

 

Sorta like the Brewers/Sabathia. Odd that Mike Maddux was the pitching coach for the Brewers back then and now the pitching coach of the Rangers. Wonder if he has any influence.

[Magnetic Curses]

too lazy to read the thread, but besides lee, what pitchers will be available? i'd like at least one top of the rotation guy.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/09/2011-mlb-free-agents.html

Bronson Arroyo (34) - $11MM club option with a $2MM buyout

Erik Bedard (32) - $8MM mutual option

Kris Benson (35)

Jeremy Bonderman (28)

Dave Bush (31)

Jose Contreras (39)

Kevin Correia (30)

Doug Davis (35) - $6.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout

Jorge De La Rosa (30)

Justin Duchscherer (33)

Shawn Estes (38)

Josh Fogg (34)

Jeff Francis (29) - $7MM club option

Freddy Garcia (35)

Jon Garland (31) - $6.75MM mutual option with a $600K buyout

Chad Gaudin (28)

Rich Harden (29) - $11MM mutual option with $1MM buyout

Aaron Harang (33) - $12.75MM club option with a $2MM buyout

Livan Hernandez (36)

Jason Jennings (32)

Hiroki Kuroda (36)

Cliff Lee (32)

Ted Lilly (35)

Rodrigo Lopez (35)

Kevin Millwood (36)

Sergio Mitre (30)

Brian Moehler (39)

Jamie Moyer (48)

Vicente Padilla (33)

Carl Pavano (35)

Brad Penny (33)

Andy Pettitte (39)

Tim Redding (33)

Nate Robertson (33)

Ben Sheets (32)

Jeff Suppan (36) - $12.75MM club option with a $2MM buyout

Brett Tomko (38)

Koji Uehara (36)

Javier Vazquez (34)

Brandon Webb (32)

Todd Wellemeyer (32)

Kip Wells (34)

Jake Westbrook (33)

Dontrelle Willis (29)

Chris Young (32) - $8.5MM club option

 

 

brandon webb is intriguing as a reclamation project.

[dew1679666265]

Anyway, Lee was just an example of one way to reinvest that money. Heck, take the $8M difference between those guys in years 1-3 and buy yourself a boatload of interesting prospects in the draft / international free agency.

 

The key point is that you can make up the value difference between dunn and gonzalez in a number of ways, including the value of the players you send over to San Diego and however you choose to invest the difference between their contracts.

 

If there's one area the Cubs can afford to trade value at, it's starting pitching. If the Padres would take a couple of starting pitchers and Vitters for Gonzalez, you're losing value in those starters but it's replaceable value.

 

It's the perfect situation to trade from a strength and add to a weakness. We have a very large abundance of quality, cheap pitching in the minors and currently no long term options at first base. If the question is do you fill that void at first with an overpaid aging slugger or do you deal from your biggest strength to acquire a still fairly young 7 WAR player who will be very expensive, I have to go with the younger, better player who will cost more.

 

Basically, Dunn is a band-aid where you hope you can find a player through the draft who will develop quickly. Or you'll have to trade more resources after the first couple of years and still be stuck with a big contract. Gonzalez will cost more, but is a legitimate long term fix at first base and will give us time to more properly develop a young first baseman in the minors.

[dew1679666265]

Sorta like the Brewers/Sabathia. Odd that Mike Maddux was the pitching coach for the Brewers back then and now the pitching coach of the Rangers. Wonder if he has any influence.

 

I tend to think it has more to do with both situations being teams that are desperate to try to win, know they won't have the pitcher beyond the half a season and figure they might as well get as much out of him as they can.

 

Though it is worth noting that Ryan has emphasized pitchers going deeper into games throughout the organization. I don't know what the thinking is on pitch counts, however.

[dew1679666265]

brandon webb is intriguing as a reclamation project.

 

If the Cubs go after any starting pitching this offseason, I hope it's Webb on a reclamation project. I could see Dempster-like results for Webb (ineffective for different reasons, but both become highly effective pitchers).

[TruffleShuffle]

they're not even working lee that hard. he's thrown 95, 105, 99, 118 and 110 pitches in those 5 games. he's just stopped walking people and his k-rate isn't that high, so he can go deep into games without a crazy pitch count.

 

here's how many guys he's walked in his starts:

none: 11x

1: 5x

2: twice

 

he's the anti-zambrano.

[dew1679666265]

they're not even working lee that hard. he's thrown 95, 105, 99, 118 and 110 pitches in those 5 games. he's just stopped walking people and his k-rate isn't that high, so he can go deep into games without a crazy pitch count.

 

here's how many guys he's walked in his starts:

none: 11x

1: 5x

2: twice

 

he's the anti-zambrano.

 

Wow, hadn't seen the pitch counts. I couldn't imagine he had pitched 43 innings in five starts for the Rangers and wasn't overworked.