2011 Draft Discussion

[imb]

I really think Jungmann is underrated.

[davell]

I really think Jungmann is underrated.

 

I do too. If you draft him and get him signed relatively early, I could see him getting a taste of AA before the end of the season and probably hit the major league rotation by the middle of next year. He may not have the supposed upside of some of these guys, but he's probably as close to a sure thing, along with Hultzen and Bauer of anyone in the class. And a solid number 3 is nothing to sneeze at. If you go this route, you probably have extra cash available in the budget to take a shot on someone with a very big pricetag later on too, or save it for IFA's.

[Outshined_One]

Here's my 5 guys, in order, of how I think the Cubs are thinking:

 

Starling

Meyer

A Bradley

Lindor

Mahtook and Gray as a coin flip

 

 

This assumes Rendon, Cole, Hultzen, Bauer, and Bundy are off the board. Although my guess is Bauer is not someone the Cubs would take, even if he were to be there. Hultzen could be another guy we pass on, if it's truly an "upside" pick. Only reason I have Mahtook as a possibility is the LSU connection.

 

Why do you think they have Meyer so high? I could understand the Cubs keying in on him if this was Pre-Wilken, but the Cubs have really shied away from big bodied pitchers since Wilken came along.

[Guancous]

Kevin Goldstein just put up his latest mock draft: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=14139

[Outshined_One]

Kevin Goldstein just put up his latest mock draft: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=14139

 

I know absolutely nothing about Guerreri other than he's a helium guy who's lit up the radar guns...but that's about it.

 

Here is a nifty report with analysis and video. Not bad. I like what I'm reading.

[shnsajax]

I really think Jungmann is underrated.

 

In a different year Jungmann could be top 5. If Starling is gone I would no problem in taking him.

[davell]

Here's my 5 guys, in order, of how I think the Cubs are thinking:

 

Starling

Meyer

A Bradley

Lindor

Mahtook and Gray as a coin flip

 

 

This assumes Rendon, Cole, Hultzen, Bauer, and Bundy are off the board. Although my guess is Bauer is not someone the Cubs would take, even if he were to be there. Hultzen could be another guy we pass on, if it's truly an "upside" pick. Only reason I have Mahtook as a possibility is the LSU connection.

 

Why do you think they have Meyer so high? I could understand the Cubs keying in on him if this was Pre-Wilken, but the Cubs have really shied away from big bodied pitchers since Wilken came along.

 

I'm going off the whole upside thing. While his downside is someone that never makes it out of AA, it's at least plausible he has the highest upside of any college pitcher in the draft. While he's not a guy I would take, part of me is almost convinced that we need upside guys so badly, I'd be OK with taking him, for that reason alone.

[Guest]

Right, so what's the problem with Mahtook?

 

Mostly lack of upside.

 

He's got 5 tools, but none of them profile as plus. And unless his defense improves, he'll probably be relegated to a corner spot. He's just kinda underwhelming for a first rounder.

 

Edit:

 

That's not to say he's a particularly bad pick or anything... just not the franchise changer we all find ourselves hoping for.

Sounds like a Wilken pick to me, high floor low ceiling mediocrity. Bleh

We really need more 4th outfielders.

 

Sounds like Brett Jackson.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/eticket/story?id=6609946

 

A really long feature on Starling if anyone's interested. Kind of hard not to like him after reading it.

 

NEBRASKA

[Guest]

Here's my 5 guys, in order, of how I think the Cubs are thinking:

 

Starling

Meyer

A Bradley

Lindor

Mahtook and Gray as a coin flip

 

 

This assumes Rendon, Cole, Hultzen, Bauer, and Bundy are off the board. Although my guess is Bauer is not someone the Cubs would take, even if he were to be there. Hultzen could be another guy we pass on, if it's truly an "upside" pick. Only reason I have Mahtook as a possibility is the LSU connection.

 

Why do you think they have Meyer so high? I could understand the Cubs keying in on him if this was Pre-Wilken, but the Cubs have really shied away from big bodied pitchers since Wilken came along.

 

Cashner and Ben Wells?

[imb]

Right, so what's the problem with Mahtook?

 

Mostly lack of upside.

 

He's got 5 tools, but none of them profile as plus. And unless his defense improves, he'll probably be relegated to a corner spot. He's just kinda underwhelming for a first rounder.

 

Edit:

 

That's not to say he's a particularly bad pick or anything... just not the franchise changer we all find ourselves hoping for.

Sounds like a Wilken pick to me, high floor low ceiling mediocrity. Bleh

We really need more 4th outfielders.

 

Sounds like Brett Jackson.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/eticket/story?id=6609946

 

A really long feature on Starling if anyone's interested. Kind of hard not to like him after reading it.

 

NEBRASKA

 

they're not our problem any more!

[Guest]

THAT DOESN'T MAKE THEM GOOD PEOPLE

[Outshined_One]

Here's my 5 guys, in order, of how I think the Cubs are thinking:

 

Starling

Meyer

A Bradley

Lindor

Mahtook and Gray as a coin flip

 

 

This assumes Rendon, Cole, Hultzen, Bauer, and Bundy are off the board. Although my guess is Bauer is not someone the Cubs would take, even if he were to be there. Hultzen could be another guy we pass on, if it's truly an "upside" pick. Only reason I have Mahtook as a possibility is the LSU connection.

 

Why do you think they have Meyer so high? I could understand the Cubs keying in on him if this was Pre-Wilken, but the Cubs have really shied away from big bodied pitchers since Wilken came along.

 

Cashner and Ben Wells?

 

I didn't say the Cubs avoided those guys altogether. However, I know you know the Cubs used to draft, almost to the point of absurdity, pitchers who were 6'5 and taller back before Wilken took over. Since then, I think Samardzija and Cashner were the only two drafted pitchers who've signed who are 6'5 and taller.

[Guest]

Here's my 5 guys, in order, of how I think the Cubs are thinking:

 

Starling

Meyer

A Bradley

Lindor

Mahtook and Gray as a coin flip

 

 

This assumes Rendon, Cole, Hultzen, Bauer, and Bundy are off the board. Although my guess is Bauer is not someone the Cubs would take, even if he were to be there. Hultzen could be another guy we pass on, if it's truly an "upside" pick. Only reason I have Mahtook as a possibility is the LSU connection.

 

Why do you think they have Meyer so high? I could understand the Cubs keying in on him if this was Pre-Wilken, but the Cubs have really shied away from big bodied pitchers since Wilken came along.

 

Cashner and Ben Wells?

 

I didn't say the Cubs avoided those guys altogether. However, I know you know the Cubs used to draft, almost to the point of absurdity, pitchers who were 6'5 and taller back before Wilken took over. Since then, I think Samardzija and Cashner were the only two drafted pitchers who've signed who are 6'5 and taller.

 

Yeah, Wilken doesn't go for the big power guys only but he doesn't seem to have specific niche of pitchers he'll draft...5'10" (Gray) or 6'6" (Cashner).

[Guest]

Gotribe31 (Fairfax, VA): How big is the gap between Bundy and Archie Bradley?

 

Kevin Goldstein: Not huge, but measurable. Archie could go top 10, so he's hardly a slouch.

Navin (Pasadena, CA): Please tell me Wilken isn't going to go off the radar with another Hayden Simpson-like pick.

 

Kevin Goldstein: Could go in a lot of directions, but all the names I'm hearing there at least fit well. That said, nobody saw Simpson coming last year.

 

Justin (Tinley Park): Should Cub fans be happy/excited if they end up taking Mahtook?

 

Kevin Goldstein: I think nine is too high in this draft, and I like him.

 

Paul (Irvine, CA): Are there any first round high school talents that will drop out because of strong college commitments?

 

Kevin Goldstein: Josh Bell is the big one. Josh Bell really threw it out there in his letter to teams, where he did not put a crazy number up, he just asked not to be drafted because he wants to go to Texas and play college ball.

 

Goldstein Tweeted that Nimo is asking for $3 million.

 

BA:

 

Ballboy (Watercooler): Prospect/Draft Q: Now that Josh Bell has said "Please don't draft me," what org do you think will most likely spend a pick on him, how high, and which orgs do you think are best at developing H.S. bats? Thanks....you guys (and the DRAFT) make life worth paying taxes and $4 gas!.

 

J.J. Cooper: It may be completely legit and he may just want to go to college, but in doing some draft research for another story, it's amazing how many of those letters have been sent in the past by players who ended up signing after getting significant offers. As far as which teams, well the Rays can take a flier on him with one of their gazillion picks, and if he doesn't sign, they could shrug their shoulders because they have a ton of other picks in the first few rounds. The Tigers have no problem busting slot if they have a guy they really like and they don't pick for a long time this year (pick No. 73), so if he fell that far, then that would be another option.

 

 

mike (lake mary, fl): in your mind, what are the odds the cubs get starling?

 

Kevin Goldstein: Don't think he will be there.

[Guest]

Let's pretend the Cubs have the third pick, and Cole and Rendon are off the board. Who's your top 5?

 

Archie Bradley

Jed Bradley

Trevor Bauer

Dylan Bundy

Danny Hultzen

 

On another topic, out of everyone in this draft, I go back and forth on Starling and Bauer more than everyone else. There are days I'd be incredibly excited to see the Cubs draft either of them and days where I just want the Cubs to avoid them at all costs.

 

I think Starling's contact issues are overblown and his other tools are excellent, but I also think that he's benefited from a lot of hype. All of the video I've seen of him has been batting practice, where his swing looks really nice, but I have to wonder about his in-game approach and how well his swing would play against better competition. Still, his ceiling is fantastic.

 

I have two issues with Bauer. The first issue is his durability given his habits and mechanics, which was covered extensively earlier. The second issue is whether the Cubs would be the right team for him. All of the rumors about him not wanting to go to certain teams and not wanting to change his routines and mechanics smack of entitlement and coachability issues. I normally don't care about baseball players' personalities if they are productive, but if you haven't even been drafted yet and you're telling teams what to do if they draft you, I have to wonder whether you have the attitude and maturity needed to make adjustments, adapt to higher levels of competitions, listen to coaches, and make it to the majors in one piece. At the same time, he may very well be the best pitcher in this draft. Tough call.

 

Anyone else feel similarly conflicted about other players?

 

He has no coachability issues whatsoever - Savage raves about Bauer. As a HS senior/college freshman, Savage made Bauer argue his case to keep his habits and mechanics and he convinced Savage, who is about as old school as you get. He still takes on coaching advice, especially on how to pitch certain hitters (obviously not as much on mechanics) and he loves picking the brains of the coaching staff and Gerrit Cole. Savage also said he's the most mature pitcher he has had, keeping in mind a) Bauer skipped half of his senior year in HS and b) Savage coached Mark Prior at USC. He's also a workout warrior and studies film of other hitters and every pitch he throws and has volumes of notes - a sign that he has what it needs to make adjustments. Hell, if anyone came into UCLA with entitlement issues, it would have been Cole (remember the maturity concerns in his HS scouting reports). Before he was drafted, Lincecum also insisted that no one was allowed to change his routines and mechanics.

 

I do have the same concern about Starling.

[toonsterwu]

Skimming over BA's June 3 mock, and I'm a bit surprised they went back to Hultzen and the Pirates. That's going to end up setting the tone for the draft, so everything's probably up in the air until then, although it sure feels like they are looking at Cole or Hultzen.

 

Looks like Archie Bradley is being heavily connected to the Cubs, as this is another mock that has that pick. Surprisingly, it sure feels like the chances are quite high that we are leaning the prep route and perhaps going for upside.

 

I'd really love to see the Cubs spend in the 2nd round on someone like Derek Fisher, but I have my doubts that the Cubs will fork over the money necessary to make that move.

 

Edit: Well, Dejan Kovecevic seems awfully certain that the Pirates are going Cole, and I'll take his word on Pirates news. Sure feels like 5 of the top 6 picks are pretty well known, with the only question being whether Bauer goes 5th or 6th. If he goes 5, Starling probably goes 6th, but wouldn't surprise me if the Nats went the college pitcher route and picked say, Jed Bradley or Matt Barnes (gut feeling somehow thinks that Rizzo might not be that in on Sonny Gray, but I could be off on Rizzo there, and Rizzo is, by all indications, heavily involved in the Nats process). If the Royals/Nats pass on Starling, I think he makes it to us, as I don't know if I can see the Indians doing a Starling pick, and I doubt the Diamondbacks would.

 

I think my top 3 preferences, assuming the assumed 5 of Hultzen/Cole/Rendon/Bauer/Bundy are off, and assuming Starling gets picked, would be Sonny Gray (I believe in the changeup's ability to be average or notch better than average), Taylor Guerrieri, and Archie Bradley, probably in that order. I doubt the Cubs go this route, but if the Cubs went Javier Baez as a guy they viewed as a 3rd baseman long term (but could keep him at short the first year or two) ... I think I would be quietly intrigued. Not sure if I'd love it, as one of those three arms should be available and I think I really like everything out there about those three arms. That'd be my top tier.

[Guancous]

Pittsburgh Gazette tweeted that the Pirates will pick Cole first.

[Guest]

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette saying Gerrit Cole will be the #1 pick: http://plus.sites.post-gazette.com/index.php/home/dk-on-pittsburgh-sports/110137-wakeup-call-cole-is-no-1

 

I am hearing that the Pirates will take Gerrit Cole with the No. 1 pick in the draft.

[toonsterwu]

one guy i don't want, and i doubt he's actually linked to us as i haven't seen anything, is cory spangenberg. if there's a guy rumored high that i would be very disappointed with, he's probably it.

[Little Slide Rooter]

As much as I love the idea of Starlings season, if they do plan on making a splash this offseason with Fielder or Pujols, wouldnt we be better off drafting a college guy rather than a guy who probably wont be ready for another 4-6 years? We'll probably need contributers sooner than later, and while we have a plenty of guys in the system who project to be good players, nobody predicts to be great, with the possible exception of Szczur, and its way to early to tell with him. Even Brett Jackson projects to be an above average everyday player but not a star, and McNutt a 2-3 starter. These are things Ive read from the "experts", not my own far from expert analysis. This draft could be our chance to pick up an elite prospect if the stars align.

 

Lets face it, our last high school phenom is still trying to pull it together 5 years later, and the 2 before him are probably filling out applications at Red Robin and Applebees and enrolling in their local community college as we speak.

[davell]

If Cole goes 1 and Seattle passes on Rendon, how far is it possible he could fall? Arizona doesn't appear to be taking anyone other than Hultzen at 3, Baltimore looks to be on pitching as well and I doubt KC would take him. Washington? If Seattle takes Bubba, I guess this is the landing spot? Arizona won't take him at 7, leaving Cleveland and then us.

 

Our best case scenario goes something like this, I guess: Pitt- Cole, Sea-Lindor, Ariz-Hultzen, Balt-Bundy, KC-Bauer, Wash-Starling or Rendon, Ariz-Gray, Cleve-Ross leaving us with the option of Rendon OR Starling being there, along with Archie Bradley too. It'd be nice to have that dilemma.

[Outshined_One]

If Cole goes 1 and Seattle passes on Rendon, how far is it possible he could fall? Arizona doesn't appear to be taking anyone other than Hultzen at 3, Baltimore looks to be on pitching as well and I doubt KC would take him. Washington? If Seattle takes Bubba, I guess this is the landing spot? Arizona won't take him at 7, leaving Cleveland and then us.

 

Our best case scenario goes something like this, I guess: Pitt- Cole, Sea-Lindor, Ariz-Hultzen, Balt-Bundy, KC-Bauer, Wash-Starling or Rendon, Ariz-Gray, Cleve-Ross leaving us with the option of Rendon OR Starling being there, along with Archie Bradley too. It'd be nice to have that dilemma.

 

Please don't get my hopes up like that!

 

I don't see Rendon getting past KC. They're willing to spend on premium talent.

[davell]

On the other hand, here's probably worst case scenario. :D

 

Pirates-Cole, Mariners-Rendon, Arizona-Hultzen, Baltimore-Bundy, KC-Bauer, Wash-Starling, Arizona-Gray, Cleveland-A Bradley.......

 

We still get our choice of Jed Bradley, Jungmann, Barnes, Springer, Norris, Lindor, and Guerrieri. With Mahtook and Meyer being possibilities as well, I guess.

[Guest]

Sonny Gray to Cleveland at 8 is very likely per Keith Law.

[Guest]

As much as I love the idea of Starlings season, if they do plan on making a splash this offseason with Fielder or Pujols, wouldnt we be better off drafting a college guy rather than a guy who probably wont be ready for another 4-6 years?

 

No. You don't draft with the MLB team or it's needs in mind. None of the college guys we would likely take are going to be Mike Leake and jump to MLB quickly anyway.