2011 Draft Discussion

[Cubswin11]

if starling is talking about harper money then it's not worth it. he's not THAT good a prospect and this draft is deep enough that you don't need to shell out mega-bucks for a starling when there are other really good prospects that will be available at that pick (and then in the later rounds too)

What are Starling's numbers so far this year in HS? I know he is playing against very few, if any, next level players..

 

Callis has us taking Starling as of his updated draft on May 13th.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/mock-draft/2011/2611735.html

[Guest]

if starling is talking about harper money then it's not worth it. he's not THAT good a prospect and this draft is deep enough that you don't need to shell out mega-bucks for a starling when there are other really good prospects that will be available at that pick (and then in the later rounds too)

 

Because of his football commitment to Nebraska, the Cubs could spread out his bonus over 5 years like the Dodgers did with Zach Lee.

[imb]

Bradley dealing right now in the 6A state title game. I think he has 10 Ks through 5 against Owasso. Bundy's not on the mound.

[TruffleShuffle]

if starling is talking about harper money then it's not worth it. he's not THAT good a prospect and this draft is deep enough that you don't need to shell out mega-bucks for a starling when there are other really good prospects that will be available at that pick (and then in the later rounds too)

 

Because of his football commitment to Nebraska, the Cubs could spread out his bonus over 5 years like the Dodgers did with Zach Lee.

 

it's not a bad idea, but lee got a little over $5m i think - which would be a reasonable amount to spend on that pick. over $10m (harper money) would be pretty crazy for a prospect who's definitely not harper.

[Guest]

if starling is talking about harper money then it's not worth it. he's not THAT good a prospect and this draft is deep enough that you don't need to shell out mega-bucks for a starling when there are other really good prospects that will be available at that pick (and then in the later rounds too)

 

Because of his football commitment to Nebraska, the Cubs could spread out his bonus over 5 years like the Dodgers did with Zach Lee.

 

it's not a bad idea, but lee got a little over $5m i think - which would be a reasonable amount to spend on that pick. over $10m (harper money) would be pretty crazy for a prospect who's definitely not harper.

 

I have to think it's posturing. No one in this draft is worth Harper money and I'm sure the players and advisers know it.

[StarlinOnYou]

http://twitter.com/#!/colin_dunlap/status/69950928433856512

 

Pirates source says they are strongly considering Dylan Bundy #1 overall.

[StarlinOnYou]

How does Bubba compare to Hosmer coming out of HS?

[Guest]

Kevin Goldstein's top 20 prospects: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13935

 

FYI, it's premium content but it's free today. His top 5 are Bundy, Cole, Hultzen, Rendon and Bauer in that order. And his negatives on Bubba Starling are definitely something to consider (questions on his hit tool, lack of competition).

[Guest]

Matt Purke had a side session yesterday and has been cleared to start Thursday.

[Guest]

Come on, Dylan. Posture your way to #9: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2011/2611753.html

 

As much as clubs covet pitching, there was more than a little sticker shock on Monday when Bundy's and Bradley's asking price circulated. Bundy, who has a scholarship from Texas, is seeking a six-year, $30 million major league contract. Bradley, who has committed to Oklahoma and also would play quarterback for the Sooners, wants a five-year deal worth $20 million.

 

To put those numbers in perspective, the largest contract in draft history belongs to Stephen Strasburg, who received a $15.1 million pact from the Nationals as the No. 1 overall pick in 2009. The biggest deal given to a high schooler is $7 million, first by Josh Beckett (No. 2, Marlins, 1999) and later matched by Rick Porcello (No. 27, Tigers, 2007).

 

How will this play out? Neither Bundy nor Bradley will top Strasburg's contract. However, it wouldn't surprise me if Bundy equaled or surpassed Beckett and Porcello, or if Bradley topped the $5.25 million two-sport deal that quarterback/righthander Zach Lee got from the Dodgers in 2010.

 

Draftees don't get paid what the consensus says they're worth. They get paid what the team that selects them believes they're worth, and they often get selected by the club that values them the most. Setting an exorbitant asking price is one way to try to make sure Bundy and Bradley fall to that team.

[davell]

Yeah, when I saw what Bundy may be asking for, the first thing I thought was "drop to 9, drop to 9". If Bradley is wanting that kind of cash, I could even see scenarios where he falls out of the 1st round altogether. Have heard that Swihart and Hedges could both fall to the 2nd-3rd round, based on their signability as well. Kind of doubt it happens, but it'd be really cool if we found a way to get a top flight catcher outside of the 1st round. Especially since I'm losing faith that Soto is anything more than a 2 year answer for us at this point.

 

With how Goldstein typically evaluates players, I'm VERY surprised to see Lindor at 7 on his list. I didn't truly expect to see him anywhere in his top 20. And then, his comments basically say what I thought they would say about him too. If you don't see star potential at least in a player, I'm extremely surprised that he'd show up anywhere on a list like this, because there is a ton of "potential" aces in this draft and more than a fair number of position players that have a chance to be stars as well.

[Guest]

I think Austin Hedges will fall. He's got a real strong commitment, there were rumors he was even going to graudate HS early to enroll at UCLA (the Robert Stock/Trevor Bauer route). Plus I don't think his bat is 1st round level. Of course catchers are always overdrafted.

 

On Lindor, I want nothing to do with him. I want a high ceiling pick. I want a potential star. Wilken has tended to shy away from that (though Vitters and Cashner had high ceilings on draft day).

[davell]

Out of Goldstein's top 20, I'd be fine with ANYONE in the top 16, minus Lindor or Meyer, plus Josh Bell and Purke(if he proves he's healthy) at 9, to be honest. And while I can see why peole are enamored with those 2 guys, I just think there are safer bets to be frontline, potential all stars than them. Yet, for some reason, I think it's probably 50/50 we wind up with one of them.

[Guest]

jimcallisBA

Maybe but I think he goes before that. Teams aren't taking $30m seriously. @raisinman101: Chance Bundy drops to 9 w/asking price? #mlbdraft

 

jimcallisBA

Close, but Bundy, Taillon, Bradley. @blzr409: How would you rank Bradley, Bundy, Taillon? #mlbdraft

[Guancous]

Goldstein loves defensive shortstops with average ceiling bats. He always points out how there are currently not 30 of those in the majors.

[Guest]

John (Simpsonville, SC): What kind of ceiling do you see for Vandy RHP Sonny Gray?

 

Jim Callis: He's not big, but I still see him as a starter, potential No. 2. He'll show you some No. 1 starter stuff, but the command isn't of the same quality.

 

Navin (Pasadena, CA): Lindor and Starling seem like the most popular choices for the Cubs. If they are gone at 9, who do the Cubs consider?

 

Jim Callis: One of the college pitchers. They drafted Sonny Gray out of high school. They have some interest in Alex Meyer.

 

Tom (Buffalo): How does Bubba Starling compare to Donovan Tate, the last ultra athletic prep position player to come out? Who was more raw? Will Tate's slow adjustment to pro ball scare teams away from Starling?

 

Jim Callis: Starling, like most high schoolers, is raw, and he faced worse competition in Kansas than Tate did in Georgia. However, there were more questions about Tate's bat than there are about Starling's. They're some risk with Starling, but also high reward. I think he may go in the 6-15 range rather than the top five, but Tate isn't scaring people away from Starling.

 

J (Mesa, AZ): How does Bubba Starling compare with Jason Heyward back when he was coming out of High School?

 

Jim Callis: Starling is a better athlete, Heyward a better hitter, it's not a real great comp.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/chat/2011/2611764.html

[shnsajax]

Matt Purke had a side session yesterday and has been cleared to start Thursday.

 

Would you take him with a 2nd round pick and throw the money at him?

[Guest]

Matt Purke had a side session yesterday and has been cleared to start Thursday.

 

Would you take him with a 2nd round pick and throw the money at him?

 

I would but I doubt he'd be there. Some team will take him in the late first or sandwich round and basically follow him in a summer league (a la Ranaudo last year). And he could also play his way back to the teens the rest of the season.

[davell]

Matt Purke had a side session yesterday and has been cleared to start Thursday.

 

Would you take him with a 2nd round pick and throw the money at him?

 

 

Absolutely, we should take him if he's there.(he won't be though, as Raisin said) With this year probably being the last one where you can overslot players, I'm hoping the Cubs are in the mindset where they take BPA throughout the draft and take advantage of this ability for the last time, as other teams will also be looking at it like this as well. While Purke is highly unlikely to be there, my guess is we'll have the chance to exercise this strategy on someone who's going to require a serious bonus in both rounds 2 and 3. And we should take them as long as they're who we feel is the best talent available. Especially considering we need to revamp our averagish system at the moment and also because our major league squad doesn't appear as if we're going to be needing any extra funds for the deadline. Ricketts, here's your shot. Loaded draft. You've said you want to build from within and we're a major market team. Act like it. Just once, I implore you.

[Guest]

Purke threw 42 pitches today, was generally around 89-91 and topped out at 92. Apparently he looked good and his arm slot was higher.

[Guest]

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2011/#list=draft

[Little Slide Rooter]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110519&content_id=19299478&vkey=draftcentral2011

 

Cole goes 1st.

Rendon falls to the O's at 4th

Lindor goes to KC at 5

Cubs nab Starling at 9 :beg:

[Guest]

Jeff Passan[/url]"]Prep right-hander Dylan Bundy, perhaps the top talent in one of the most loaded Major League Baseball drafts in years, has informed several teams not to select him because of fears they’ll try to change his throwing program, a source close to Bundy told Yahoo! Sports.

 

And he’s not the only one.

 

UCLA starter Trevor Bauer, also a potential top-5 pick, shares Bundy’s concern about teams’ reticence to allow long-toss sessions in which pitchers throw the ball on an arc up to 300 feet in order to build up arm strength, according to another source. About half the teams in baseball stick with a strict program that limits pitchers to straight-line throws at 120 feet, which Bauer and Bundy fear would affect their arm strength.

 

Bundy told the Pittsburgh Pirates, who own the No. 1 pick, and the Kansas City Royals, who pick fifth, that he’d prefer they not use their pick on him, according to the source. Seattle (picking second), Arizona (third and seventh) and Washington (sixth) all advocate long toss. Bundy’s older brother Bobby plays for Baltimore, which chooses fourth.

 

...

 

Pittsburgh sent a cadre of evaluators to Oklahoma to talk with the 18-year-old and left with Bundy advising the Pirates not to select him. One executive asked the Bundy camp whether its demand for a six-year, $30 million major league contract – nearly twice what Stephen Strasburg received two years ago – was to scare teams off. The answer was yes.

[davell]

Perfectgame has their latest mock up and it has Bubba falling to us as well, saying we're really high on him and Lindor. In it, KC takes Lindor and they think he's a near lock to be gone before we pick. Cautiously becoming optimistic Bubba lasts until we pick.

[CubsWin]

Perfectgame has their latest mock up and it has Bubba falling to us as well, saying we're really high on him and Lindor. In it, KC takes Lindor and they think he's a near lock to be gone before we pick. Cautiously becoming optimistic Bubba lasts until we pick.

I love his ceiling and hate his floor. But I've never been one to let fear behind the steering wheel. I'd love it if he fell to the Cubs. There's a lot of good depth in this draft, but only a few potential superstars and I think Bubba is one of them. Go big or go home. If he fails, and he might, there should still be good, and possibly safer bets, in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.