Marshall, Reliever or starter?

[Skyballer]

His numbers this year in the pen are pretty amazing, especially when you put them up against his career numbers. His ERA is sitting at 1.93, good for an ERA+ of 237 :shock: . Through his 5 year career and just north of 400 innings his ERA+ averages out to 105. So over the course of 23.1 innings his ERA+ is 132 points better than his career average. He's averaging 11.6 K/9 this year compared to a career average of 6.7 K/9. His K/BB ratio is just over four this year compared to a career average of just under 2. His walks are down and his strikeouts are way up compared to what hes done the last four years. While I don't have the Bapib against on hand right now it seems unlikely that hes getting too lucky seeing as K/BB has increased so dramatically. So what gives? Are his pitches just awkwardly good in small sample size, is he relying other pitches more, or have his pitches just gotten better when only working for an inning or two?

 

For starters his straight fastball has gotten a little hotter. Going from about 87 to 90 MPH can certainly make a difference. He's also throwing his fastball more as well as his cut significantly less. He's completely eliminated the change from his repertoire this year. Hes really relied pretty heavily on his curve this year though, throwing it 44% of the time compared to a career average of about 23%. I think its also worth noting that the velocity on the curve has jumped about 4 mph, seems odd to increase the velocity of a curve ball.

 

His fastball has improved and hes relied on it a little more this year. He's gone away from the cutter quite a bit and really relied heavily on his curve ball. The results speak for themselves and it doesn't appear as though he getting lucky. Personally I'd like to see him kept in the bullpen because I think his pitches are considerably sharper there and hes quite valuable in high leverage 7th and 8th inning situations. I'm asking 2 questions though, A) how long can he keep pitching like this, and how much of this do you think is a direct result of being a full time reliever? I'm curious to hear some input.

[Backtobanks]

His numbers this year in the pen are pretty amazing, especially when you put them up against his career numbers. His ERA is sitting at 1.93, good for an ERA+ of 237 :shock: . Through his 5 year career and just north of 400 innings his ERA+ averages out to 105. So over the course of 23.1 innings his ERA+ is 132 points better than his career average. He's averaging 11.6 K/9 this year compared to a career average of 6.7 K/9. His K/BB ratio is just over four this year compared to a career average of just under 2. His walks are down and his strikeouts are way up compared to what hes done the last four years. While I don't have the Bapib against on hand right now it seems unlikely that hes getting too lucky seeing as K/BB has increased so dramatically. So what gives? Are his pitches just awkwardly good in small sample size, is he relying other pitches more, or have his pitches just gotten better when only working for an inning or two?

 

For starters his straight fastball has gotten a little hotter. Going from about 87 to 90 MPH can certainly make a difference. He's also throwing his fastball more as well as his cut significantly less. He's completely eliminated the change from his repertoire this year. Hes really relied pretty heavily on his curve this year though, throwing it 44% of the time compared to a career average of about 23%. I think its also worth noting that the velocity on the curve has jumped about 4 mph, seems odd to increase the velocity of a curve ball.

 

His fastball has improved and hes relied on it a little more this year. He's gone away from the cutter quite a bit and really relied heavily on his curve ball. The results speak for themselves and it doesn't appear as though he getting lucky. Personally I'd like to see him kept in the bullpen because I think his pitches are considerably sharper there and hes quite valuable in high leverage 7th and 8th inning situations. I'm asking 2 questions though, A) how long can he keep pitching like this, and how much of this do you think is a direct result of being a full time reliever? I'm curious to hear some input.

 

Obviously, let him stay in the bullpen. Our rotation is good and deep while our bullpen is problematic and thin.

[NCCubFan]

At least for the rest of this year keeping him in the bullpen is a no-brainer. There's already an issue with excess starters (deciding who to move to the bullpen when Zambrano moves back to the rotation). You don't compound that issue further by moving Marshall to the rotation at this time. This could change in the event of a trade or injury.

[Yeti]

His numbers this year in the pen are pretty amazing, especially when you put them up against his career numbers. His ERA is sitting at 1.93, good for an ERA+ of 237 :shock: . Through his 5 year career and just north of 400 innings his ERA+ averages out to 105. So over the course of 23.1 innings his ERA+ is 132 points better than his career average. He's averaging 11.6 K/9 this year compared to a career average of 6.7 K/9. His K/BB ratio is just over four this year compared to a career average of just under 2. His walks are down and his strikeouts are way up compared to what hes done the last four years. While I don't have the Bapib against on hand right now it seems unlikely that hes getting too lucky seeing as K/BB has increased so dramatically. So what gives? Are his pitches just awkwardly good in small sample size, is he relying other pitches more, or have his pitches just gotten better when only working for an inning or two?

 

For starters his straight fastball has gotten a little hotter. Going from about 87 to 90 MPH can certainly make a difference. He's also throwing his fastball more as well as his cut significantly less. He's completely eliminated the change from his repertoire this year. Hes really relied pretty heavily on his curve this year though, throwing it 44% of the time compared to a career average of about 23%. I think its also worth noting that the velocity on the curve has jumped about 4 mph, seems odd to increase the velocity of a curve ball.

 

His fastball has improved and hes relied on it a little more this year. He's gone away from the cutter quite a bit and really relied heavily on his curve ball. The results speak for themselves and it doesn't appear as though he getting lucky. Personally I'd like to see him kept in the bullpen because I think his pitches are considerably sharper there and hes quite valuable in high leverage 7th and 8th inning situations. I'm asking 2 questions though, A) how long can he keep pitching like this, and how much of this do you think is a direct result of being a full time reliever? I'm curious to hear some input.

so, obviously you did your home work, enough to head off any argument.

 

MARSHALL FOR THE ROTATION!!!

[Little Slide Rooter]

Marshall is where he belongs, at least as far as where he helps the team the most. As far as Im concerned, Marshall to Marmol is one of the best 8-9 inning combos in the league. Its just too bad the rest of the pen is such a mess, or at least we have a manager who has no idea what to do with it Hint: Grabow should never be on the mound unless we have a double digit lead or defecit.

 

One things for sure though, Marshall wants to be a starter, and his free agency cant be too far away, and there are teams that will offer him decent money to do so.

[Sammy Sofa]

Do we still have to trot out the "the rest of the bullpen is such a mess" schtick? Yes, we know: Howry sucks and Grabow has tanked it so far this year. I don't understand why that still somehow translates to everyone else in the bullpen who isn't Marshall or Marmol being terrible and useless. Just because Lou is bullpen reeeeetarded doesn't mean that the bullpen as a whole actually sucks.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Do we still have to trot out the "the rest of the bullpen is such a mess" schtick? Yes, we know: Howry sucks and Grabow has tanked it so far this year. I don't understand why that still somehow translates to everyone else in the bullpen who isn't Marshall or Marmol being terrible and useless. Just because Lou is bullpen reeeeetarded doesn't mean that the bullpen as a whole actually sucks.

 

Other than these guys, the rest of the bullpen is Stevens, Russell, and whoever takes over Zs spot, and while I have nothing against any of them, as long as the guy in charge of the bullpen uses it poorly, it will continue to be a mess, and unfortunately, the guy in charge chooses to continue to put Grabow in big spots.

[Sammy Sofa]

Do we still have to trot out the "the rest of the bullpen is such a mess" schtick? Yes, we know: Howry sucks and Grabow has tanked it so far this year. I don't understand why that still somehow translates to everyone else in the bullpen who isn't Marshall or Marmol being terrible and useless. Just because Lou is bullpen reeeeetarded doesn't mean that the bullpen as a whole actually sucks.

 

Other than these guys, the rest of the bullpen is Stevens, Russell, and whoever takes over Zs spot, and while I have nothing against any of them, as long as the guy in charge of the bullpen uses it poorly, it will continue to be a mess, and unfortunately, the guy in charge chooses to continue to put Grabow in big spots.

 

Right, but that doesn't actually make the bullpen bad. It just means the manager keeps insisting on using someone at times he shouldn't. Stevens and Russel are pretty good options to have and they definitely have the players in the system to be much better options than Z was and Howry is.

[The Hot Dog Guy]

Bullpen. Easy. Numbers have ALWAYS been better in relief, and you have to give Credit to Lou and Hendyr fro keeping this guy in the pen. As mnay bad decisons we have made, keeping him in the bullpen has been brilliant

[CubColtPacer]

Marshall is where he belongs, at least as far as where he helps the team the most. As far as Im concerned, Marshall to Marmol is one of the best 8-9 inning combos in the league. Its just too bad the rest of the pen is such a mess, or at least we have a manager who has no idea what to do with it Hint: Grabow should never be on the mound unless we have a double digit lead or defecit.

 

One things for sure though, Marshall wants to be a starter, and his free agency cant be too far away, and there are teams that will offer him decent money to do so.

 

It looks like Marshall will be a free agent after the 2012 season. So the Cubs still have a long way to go before worrying about that. And if the Cubs keep him in the bullpen, I doubt you'll see many teams wanting to risk converting him to a starter at the age of 30 if he's still being an effective reliever.

[KaiserCesar]

Right now it's a problem trying to get Zambrano back into the rotation. Nevermind that Jackson and Cashner are sitting in AAA with no spot in the rotation in the foreseeable future. The only way I'd consider making Marshall a starter is if at least 2-3 of the 8 guys in the mix left the picture as he's not guaranteed to be a huge upgrade over anyone but is a huge asset in the bullpen.