Oswalt requests trade...

[17 Seconds]

OH NO! NOT HIS ERA! Better not bother checking anything else out.

 

Stop pretending like ERA doesn't matter. If we're examining four seasons of stats, it's a valid way of arguing a pitcher's decline.

 

no it's not. pretty much every other stat has been pretty consistent over that period.

 

Like what, WHIP? WHIP doesn't always tell the whole story either (Example: If you allow a line drive triple off the wall it counts the same as an infield single). His homers allowed have increased the past two seasons, and he is obviously not stranding as many runners on base. Both of those things matter.

 

Some 05-09 stats on Oswalt

 

K/9

 

6.9

6.8

6.5

7.1

6.8

 

WHIP

 

1.20

1.17

1.33

1.18

1.24

 

H/9

 

9.0

9.0

9.4

8.6

9.1

 

LD%

 

21.8

19.9

16.0

20.5

21.1

 

The only thing that's really gone up are his home run totals, but not by a huge amount. If there's a decline it's pretty small

 

Why even pay attention to ERA when there are so many better stats that actually tell you something? ERA tells you very little. Besides, his low ERA in those years you were talking about probably should have been a bit higher anyways.

[Magnetic Curses]

i saw a picture of the broad he was bangin and there weren't nuthin sweet about her.

[JonJayCutler]

Some 05-09 stats on Oswalt

 

K/9

 

6.9

6.8

6.5

7.1

6.8

 

WHIP

 

1.20

1.17

1.33

1.18

1.24

 

H/9

 

9.0

9.0

9.4

8.6

9.1

 

LD%

 

21.8

19.9

16.0

20.5

21.1

 

The only thing that's really gone up are his home run totals, but not by a huge amount. If there's a decline it's pretty small

 

Why even pay attention to ERA when there are so many better stats that actually tell you something? ERA tells you very little. Besides, his low ERA in those years you were talking about probably should have been a bit higher anyways.

 

When a pitcher has an ERA that increases for FOUR straight seasons, he is obviously not being as effective in some capacity. Most likely it is because more homers allowed = more runs allowed. It cannot be a complete coincidence.

 

He is still a good pitcher, but my point was that he's old and should not be traded for one of our top prospects. Whether there is proof that he is declinding or not, just the fact that he is 32 years old is enough to justify not making the trade IMO.

[Sammy Sofa]

So you're saying that his ERA tells more about who he is as a pitcher now than what dexter just posted? Or that it has equal weight? Even if ERA is not dismissed, the weight of the evidence is pointing away from your conclusion.

 

Besides, the HR issue is potentially inflated by pitching in Houston. Look at 2008, when he gave the most HR he ever has in a season: 23. He had 16 games at home and 16 on the road. 16 of those HR came in Houston; the other 7 on the road.

 

2009: 13 games at home and 17 away and 19 HR. 10 of those were at home and 9 were on the road.

 

The HR increase you keep pointing to seems to indicate he's had a bit more trouble not giving HR in a park that is notorious for giving up HR.

[Guest]

Oswalt's FIP and xFIP:

 

2006: 3.30/3.53

2007: 3.59/4.08

2008: 3.80/3.55

2009: 3.76/3.88

2010: 3.20/3.21

 

There's really no decline there.

[JonJayCutler]

Whether there is proof that he is declinding or not, just the fact that he is 32 years old is enough to justify not making the trade IMO.

[Sammy Sofa]

32 isn't as old as you think it is. Yes, it should factor into the equation, and if he was actually exhibiting some kind of significant decline it should weigh in more on any type of decision, but as it stands this is a 32-year-old showing little decline with only one more year left on his contract. He'd be a fantastic pickup for a decent team looking to bolster their starting rotation into something playoff-worthy. He's obviously not Strasburg-worthy like some insane ex-GM's have suggested, but he'd be a fantastic pickup for a team like the Nationals, and would be also be a good move for the Cubs so long as they didn't give up someone like Castro.

[JonJayCutler]

32 isn't as old as you think it is. Yes, it should factor into the equation, and if he was actually exhibiting some kind of significant decline it should weigh in more on any type of decision, but as it stands this is a 32-year-old showing little decline with only one more year left on his contract. He'd be a fantastic pickup for a decent team looking to bolster their starting rotation into something playoff-worthy. He's obviously not Strasburg-worthy like some insane ex-GM's have suggested, but he'd be a fantastic pickup for a team like the Nationals, and would be also be a good move for the Cubs so long as they didn't give up someone like Castro.

 

I agree completely. My argument was largely in response to the poster who said they'd strongly consider Castro for Oswalt straight-up. I don't think I'd do a Cashner for Oswalt straight up either, but I'd probably part with anyone else in the Cubs' farm.