2010 Chicago Cubs (in your opinion)

[Northside Blues]

I would say that we are in the lower to mid 80s with a small chance (1 in 10?) of breaking 90 but the same chance of failing to break 80. We are probably going to have poor offensive production up the middle, with the exception of Geovany Soto. I think our offense is middle of the range somewhere between 6th and 10th in the league. I think we still have a great front half of the rotation but Wells sucks and so does Gorzy. We don't have a legitimate top ten pitcher so the stinker at the end will cancel out Z and Dempster. Lilly is fine but a risk. Even if he is 100% we are just a hair better than average in the rotation. Our pen sucks so at best we have a league average pitchng staff and our defense sure as heck won't be helping them out too often. Putting everything together and that is a whole lotta average. Given that we play a slightly below average schedule I think that places us around 83-84 W's. Of course there's more potential there than most 84 win teams it's just asking for all the things to break right is asking for a lot. I've got the Cardinals pegged at 87-88 wins.

 

How do you know the pen sucks? Couldn't be because of last year, because they didn't suck then, either.

Perhaps not but the Cubs did not have a single relief pitcher in the top 30 of ARP last year and just one in the top 75.

[MWV]

I would say that we are in the lower to mid 80s with a small chance (1 in 10?) of breaking 90 but the same chance of failing to break 80. We are probably going to have poor offensive production up the middle, with the exception of Geovany Soto. I think our offense is middle of the range somewhere between 6th and 10th in the league. I think we still have a great front half of the rotation but Wells sucks and so does Gorzy. We don't have a legitimate top ten pitcher so the stinker at the end will cancel out Z and Dempster. Lilly is fine but a risk. Even if he is 100% we are just a hair better than average in the rotation. Our pen sucks so at best we have a league average pitchng staff and our defense sure as heck won't be helping them out too often. Putting everything together and that is a whole lotta average. Given that we play a slightly below average schedule I think that places us around 83-84 W's. Of course there's more potential there than most 84 win teams it's just asking for all the things to break right is asking for a lot. I've got the Cardinals pegged at 87-88 wins.

 

While I agree with much of your analysis, I find it difficult to ignore your assertion that a 147 ERA+ and 3.88 FIP over 165.1 rookie innings "sucks". Wells may regress, but I see little reason to expect him to be less than a decent, middle of the rotation pitcher.

[Sammy Sofa]

How do you know the pen sucks? Couldn't be because of last year, because they didn't suck then, either.

Perhaps not but the Cubs did not have a single relief pitcher in the top 30 of ARP last year and just one in the top 75.

 

And? It would have been ideal to have at least one guy in the pen who was lights out, but in all the performance of the bullpen was average at worst. The bullpen simply was not a significant problem last season in the face of what actually sank their season.

Edited February 9, 2010 by Sammy Sofa

[Northside Blues]

While I agree with much of your analysis, I find it difficult to ignore your assertion that a 147 ERA+ and 3.88 FIP over 165.1 rookie innings "sucks". Wells may regress, but I see little reason to expect him to be less than a decent, middle of the rotation pitcher.

I am not stating whether or not he was good last year. His walk rate

dropped  a significant amount moving from AAA to the majors and his home

run rate dropped more than a significant amount making that same jump.

Typically, pitchers do not see gains in their ratios while going from a

lower level to a higher level. It's very likely that we see significant

regression in both rates, and minimal improvement on his K rate. His FIP

will skyrocket in a hurry if that happens. Maybe saying he sucks is a

little harsh, but I wouldn't expect an ERA south of 4.50.

 

I'd much rather have Sean Marshall in the rotation over both Gorzy and

Wells. I'd try out Guzman there first too, but I can see why some people

wouldn't want to risk the higher stress to cause him to get injured again.

[Northside Blues]

And? It would have been ideal to have at least one guy in the pen who was lights out, but in all the performance of the bullpen was average at worst. The bullpen simply was not a significant problem last season in the face of what actually sank their season.

With the rest of the team looking close to league average adding an average pen makes us average. It is hardly the most useful statistic for bullpens but the Cubs ERA from the pen was 11th in the NL. I think Guzman and Marmol are fine in their roles but I can't say that anyone else down their is useful. Even Sean Marshall is not utilized properly.

[Sammy Sofa]

And? It would have been ideal to have at least one guy in the pen who was lights out, but in all the performance of the bullpen was average at worst. The bullpen simply was not a significant problem last season in the face of what actually sank their season.

With the rest of the team looking close to league average adding an average pen makes us average. It is hardly the most useful statistic for bullpens but the Cubs ERA from the pen was 11th in the NL. I think Guzman and Marmol are fine in their roles but I can't say that anyone else down their is useful. Even Sean Marshall is not utilized properly.

 

An average bullpen is fine. It's assbackwards to think that a very good or exceptional bullpen needs to be constructed because it's usually a difficult crapshoot to do so in the first place and doing so requires way too much money to be wasted. It's ridiculous to say that you don't see how anyone beyond Guzman and Marmol can be useful in the bullpen next year. The pen is not and should not be a priority right now. They have more than enough in-house options to plug in if someone falters.

[jersey cubs fan]

And? It would have been ideal to have at least one guy in the pen who was lights out, but in all the performance of the bullpen was average at worst. The bullpen simply was not a significant problem last season in the face of what actually sank their season.

With the rest of the team looking close to league average adding an average pen makes us average. It is hardly the most useful statistic for bullpens but the Cubs ERA from the pen was 11th in the NL. I think Guzman and Marmol are fine in their roles but I can't say that anyone else down their is useful. Even Sean Marshall is not utilized properly.

 

An average bullpen is fine. It's assbackwards to think that a very good or exceptional bullpen needs to be constructed because it's usually a difficult crapshoot to do so in the first place and doing so requires way too much money to be wasted. It's ridiculous to say that you don't see how anyone beyond Guzman and Marmol can be useful in the bullpen next year. The pen is not and should not be a priority right now. They have more than enough in-house options to plug in if someone falters.

 

Absoposifreakingtivelutely.

[davell]

Honestly, we have 3 spots sewn up, with Marmol, Guzman, and Grabow. Then, you may as well figure that we've got 2 more spots already taken by Shark, Marshall, and Gorzelanny. Whichever two miss out on the 5th starter spot. Which leaves 2 spots up for grabs with Stevens, Gaub, Berg, Caridad, Parker and Gray being the group most likely to wind up with those innings eater spots. And I'm perfectly fine with that. I don't see the pen being a big issue for us in 2010.

[bukie]

If everyone on the team plays to projections, the offense will be better, while the pitching will be worse. I tend to think the offensive improvement will outpace the pitching decline, so the team will be 3-5 wins better this season than last. Whether that'll be enough to win the division is really more dependent on the other teams.

[MWV]

While I agree with much of your analysis, I find it difficult to ignore your assertion that a 147 ERA+ and 3.88 FIP over 165.1 rookie innings "sucks". Wells may regress, but I see little reason to expect him to be less than a decent, middle of the rotation pitcher.

I am not stating whether or not he was good last year. His walk rate

dropped  a significant amount moving from AAA to the majors and his home

run rate dropped more than a significant amount making that same jump.

Typically, pitchers do not see gains in their ratios while going from a

lower level to a higher level. It's very likely that we see significant

regression in both rates, and minimal improvement on his K rate. His FIP

will skyrocket in a hurry if that happens. Maybe saying he sucks is a

little harsh, but I wouldn't expect an ERA south of 4.50.

 

I'd much rather have Sean Marshall in the rotation over both Gorzy and

Wells. I'd try out Guzman there first too, but I can see why some people

wouldn't want to risk the higher stress to cause him to get injured again.

 

Ok, I see your point.

However, the difference in BB/9 (3.0 in past 3 years at AAA to 2.5 in 2009) amounts to 9 fewer walks over the course of 694 batters faced. The dip in HR/9 (~1.0 to 0.8) amounts to 4 fewer HRs over the innings pitched in 2009. Neither of these changes in rate look like red flags to me. The fact that he was ~50 Ks short of his AAA K/9 is a little alarming, but he otherwise appears to have made the transition to MLB more or less at his AAA rates. While impressive, it's not unheard of, and I don't see why it augurs poorly for him.

[17 Seconds]

83-79

[JonJayCutler]

88-74 and Wild Card.

[champaignchris]

Why is almost everyone in this thread handing St. Louis the division? They're not quite Albert and the Seven Dwarfs on offense anymore with Matt Holiday, but still have some major holes, especially on the left side of their infield. Their third best offensive player is either a defensive catcher or a second baseman on the wrong side of 34.

 

Franklin had a career year at age 36. He won't repeat that sub-2 ERA. The rest of their pen is solid, but not special. Wainwright and Carpenter are great pitchers with a history of injuries. Carpenter turns 35 in April and Wainwright has yet to prove he can pitch back-to-back 200 inning seasons. After them, they've got Kyle Loshe, Brad Penny - unspectacular innings eaters at this point in their careers - and... ? Mitchell Boggs? If (or perhaps, when) Carpenter or Wainwright go down, they will be in serious trouble.

 

I see more questions on the Cardinals' roster than I do on the Cubs' roster.

[Sammy Sofa]

The Cardinals have questions, but I don't think they have more than the Cubs. Sure, it remains to be seen if Carpenter and Wainwright can stay healthy, but if they can then the Cardinals have one of the best 1-2 pitching punches in all of baseball. The upside to that question is amazing. The upside if the Cubs' pitching questions are guys like Lilly, Z, Dempster and Wells: serviceable pitchers who can be very good have even have flashes of "ace-dom," but typically aren't aces.

 

Yes, the Cardinals have hitting questions, but the lineup is still anchored by the reliable and reliably healthy production of Pujols and Holiday. The Cubs potentially have a much more balanced lineup up and down, but the questions regarding Soriano (who is streaky even when he's on) Lee, Soto and Aramis' health are still very significant.

[kujay]

I think if you shuffled the deck and played last season again, the Cubs would win the division more times than not. Everything just went wrong.

 

I think they'll be in a tight division race with St. Louis and probably end up with the WC.

 

And here's the wishful thinking, eternal optimist in me, but I think the year we win it will come out of the blue. It won't be a 2008 where we dominate all year and roll through the playoffs.

[Guest]

This just isn't a very good team. If I were building a team and I could draw from any players in the majors, there is maybe only 2 or 3 guys on the whole roster worthy of consideration for my entire 25 man roster, and I'm not sure any of them actually makes the team. Some of the players are whiners, some are constantly hurt, some are not good at baseball and very few are someone that makes me want to tune them in on my tv.

 

For a 130m plus payroll, that's pretty pathetic. Maybe they really will play well enough together as a team to make the playoffs. Considering the pathetic division they play in, that's really not that big of a deal, IMO. And it's certainly not a lock considering how many times they haven't done it this past decade, even with more resources than most of the other teams. However, they won't go deep into the playoffs. Philadelphia towers over them in talent. Probably brains, too.

 

I've got Chicago pegged to finish 2nd at this point behind a superior Cardinal team. The Cardinals get the upper hand because they do have players who I would want on my 25 man roster and they aren't constantly making excuses for how bad they are playing, but rather stepping up with lesser talented players when it's needed. It sucks to say that. I hate the Cardinals.

 

Overall, the club needs a major overhaul starting with upper management. Hopefully Ricketts can see that major changes need to occur before this team can become a dominant powerhouse in a division in which they should be dominant powerhouses. Put this Cub team in the AL East, and the Cubs wouldn't even be a glitch on the radar at the top of the division standings.

 

At the end of this season, I beg that instead of getting rid of the so-called problem player that we actually get rid of the guy responsible for bringing the so-called problem player here in the first place. Get rid of the GM and hire someone who sticks to a successful plan for building a baseball franchise. I'm already jotting down some notes on what excuse Hendry will use this year if/when the team doesn't make the playoffs.

[Guest]

This just isn't a very good team. If I were building a team and I could draw from any players in the majors, there is maybe only 2 or 3 guys on the whole roster worthy of consideration for my entire 25 man roster, and I'm not sure any of them actually makes the team. Some of the players are whiners, some are constantly hurt, some are not good at baseball and very few are someone that makes me want to tune them in on my tv.

 

For a 130m plus payroll, that's pretty pathetic. Maybe they really will play well enough together as a team to make the playoffs. Considering the pathetic division they play in, that's really not that big of a deal, IMO. And it's certainly not a lock considering how many times they haven't done it this past decade, even with more resources than most of the other teams. However, they won't go deep into the playoffs. Philadelphia towers over them in talent. Probably brains, too.

 

I've got Chicago pegged to finish 2nd at this point behind a superior Cardinal team. The Cardinals get the upper hand because they do have players who I would want on my 25 man roster and they aren't constantly making excuses for how bad they are playing, but rather stepping up with lesser talented players when it's needed. It sucks to say that. I hate the Cardinals.

 

Overall, the club needs a major overhaul starting with upper management. Hopefully Ricketts can see that major changes need to occur before this team can become a dominant powerhouse in a division in which they should be dominant powerhouses. Put this Cub team in the AL East, and the Cubs wouldn't even be a glitch on the radar at the top of the division standings.

 

At the end of this season, I beg that instead of getting rid of the so-called problem player that we actually get rid of the guy responsible for bringing the so-called problem player here in the first place. Get rid of the GM and hire someone who sticks to a successful plan for building a baseball franchise. I'm already jotting down some notes on what excuse Hendry will use this year if/when the team doesn't make the playoffs.

 

This whole "they don't have anyone who I'd pick for a 25 man roster if I can choose from all 30 teams" is pretty nonsensical.

 

 

Personally, I'm optimistic, so I'll say 90-72 and winning the Central. For a range, I'd say they'll win between 86-91 games.

[Guest]

This whole "they don't have anyone who I'd pick for a 25 man roster if I can choose from all 30 teams" is pretty nonsensical.

 

 

Personally, I'm optimistic, so I'll say 90-72 and winning the Central. For a range, I'd say they'll win between 86-91 games.

 

I'm somehow nonsensical, yet your optimistic viewpoint doesn't have us winning anymore games than I'm predicting? I'd love to hear the logic.

 

I said the team will probably finish in 2nd place behind the Cardinals. The Cubs roster is weighted down with uninspiring mopes that I just can't get all that excited to sit down and watch this year. I'm sorry that might hurt your feelings. The dude asked for an opinion and I gave it. A second place finish in the worst division in baseball is the best I have to offer, which doesn't really seem any different than your optimistic viewpoint.

[Sammy Sofa]

What does calling a player a "mope" even mean?

[Lefty]

79-83. We all like to focus on what will be better, Soriano, Soto, Ramirez etc., but the fact is there are just as many things that can get worse; Lee, Lilly, Dempster, Wells etc.

[Guest]

What does calling a player a "mope" even mean?

 

I have no idea. I just thought it sounded good at the time.

 

Soriano, Byrd, Fukudome, Theriot, Fontenot, and several of the pitchers just don't inspire me to be excited about baseball this year. While I do like Ramirez, Lee and Soto as players, none of them make me want to get all of my work done so I can sit down and watch them play.

 

It's just an uninspiring group of players who make me wish football season was sooner this year.

[Guest]

This whole "they don't have anyone who I'd pick for a 25 man roster if I can choose from all 30 teams" is pretty nonsensical.

 

 

Personally, I'm optimistic, so I'll say 90-72 and winning the Central. For a range, I'd say they'll win between 86-91 games.

 

I'm somehow nonsensical, yet your optimistic viewpoint doesn't have us winning anymore games than I'm predicting? I'd love to hear the logic.

 

Yes, it's nonsensical. Why on earth would you use "no people at the best in their position in baseball = fail" as criteria for how good the team is?

 

You didn't list a record, only 2nd to the Cards, which is not what I had. Do you really think a 90 win season, even in the "worst division in baseball"(PS, not true) would be a failure?

[Guest]

79-83. We all like to focus on what will be better, Soriano, Soto, Ramirez etc., but the fact is there are just as many things that can get worse; Lee, Lilly, Dempster, Wells etc.

 

The established level of play for those likely to regress is a lot closer to last year's performance than those likely to rebound.

[Guest]

This whole "they don't have anyone who I'd pick for a 25 man roster if I can choose from all 30 teams" is pretty nonsensical.

 

 

Personally, I'm optimistic, so I'll say 90-72 and winning the Central. For a range, I'd say they'll win between 86-91 games.

 

I'm somehow nonsensical, yet your optimistic viewpoint doesn't have us winning anymore games than I'm predicting? I'd love to hear the logic.

 

Yes, it's nonsensical. Why on earth would you use "no people at the best in their position in baseball = fail" as criteria for how good the team is?

 

You didn't list a record, only 2nd to the Cards, which is not what I had. Do you really think a 90 win season, even in the "worst division in baseball"(PS, not true) would be a failure?

 

I don't think you read my post. Nowhere did I say "no people at the best in their position in baseball= fail". I said it was not a very good team. I also said it was an unlikeable team.

 

We were all asked our opinion of the 2010 team and I gave mine. This is a very unlikeable team. Between Theriot running his mouth better than he runs the bases, to Soriano bunny hopping fly balls and Piniella sitting on the bench like a bump on a log, I don't get the slightest bit excited about this team. They are destined to finish 2nd (and I MOST CERTAINLY said that).

 

As far as the second place finish, do you think I'm assuming the Cubs will finish in second with a 60-100 record? A second place finish will typically be over .500, which isn't that much more of a difference than you lowest end prediction of 5 games over .500.

 

Yet I'm somehow being nonsensical. Honestly, I really don't understand why you somehow think I need to be put in my place by you because you disagree with my opinion. That's exactly what this thread was started for and in no other thread have a said a negative word about this team in nearly a month.

 

Watching Marlon Byrd play centerfield or Theriot play SS just isn't awe inspiring to me. I'm sorry that bothers you. I'd go so far as to say that I'd rather watch the Cubs minor league teams this year or read a book. I'll tune in anyway, but I'm not expecting Carlos Silva to change my impression of this team anytime soon.

[Sammy Sofa]

It seems you have very high expectations if you go into a season expecting "awe-inspiring."