Dye turned down $3.3 million deal from Cubs

[Sammy Sofa]

All good points, but it's still ridiculous for you to act like you had some kind of enlightenment to realize that Dye is no longer good as a fulltime player: the majority of people here were well aware of that without you. Use correctly, Dye still potentially could have been a useful option for the Cubs at the right price, though he clearly isn't accepting the "right price" right now. He wouldn't have been the only option as an OF backup on the team. Dye was never my first choice, but to act like you were some kind of voice of reason in regards to him sounds like something The Voice of Reason would say.

[Rob]

All good points, but it's still ridiculous for you to act like you had some kind of enlightenment to realize that Dye is no longer good as a fulltime player: the majority of people here were well aware of that without you. Use correctly, Dye still potentially could have been a useful option for the Cubs at the right price, though he clearly isn't accepting the "right price" right now. He wouldn't have been the only option as an OF backup on the team. Dye was never my first choice, but to act like you were some kind of voice of reason in regards to him sounds like something The Voice of Reason would say.

 

You're reading too much into my phrasing, which was done simply as a contrast to cubsbearsmagic's post immediately preceding mine.

[JonJayCutler]

If he was a fulltime player, yes. Kind of a big caveat.

 

With an old, injury prone team like we have, though, you need to feel comfortable with your bench players getting significant playing time. I don't feel that way with Dye.

 

You thought the opposite of injury prone was a guy coming off his second TJS?

[JonJayCutler]

All good points, but it's still ridiculous for you to act like you had some kind of enlightenment to realize that Dye is no longer good as a fulltime player: the majority of people here were well aware of that without you. Use correctly, Dye still potentially could have been a useful option for the Cubs at the right price, though he clearly isn't accepting the "right price" right now. He wouldn't have been the only option as an OF backup on the team. Dye was never my first choice, but to act like you were some kind of voice of reason in regards to him sounds like something The Voice of Reason would say.

 

You're reading too much into my phrasing, which was done simply as a contrast to cubsbearsmagic's post immediately preceding mine.

 

If you prefer Nady over Dye, thats fine, as most here do. However this "Dye is worse than AAAA" stuff is nonsense. Do you have any stats to back this up or is it purely speculation?

[dew1679666265]

If he was a fulltime player, yes. Kind of a big caveat.

 

With an old, injury prone team like we have, though, you need to feel comfortable with your bench players getting significant playing time. I don't feel that way with Dye.

 

You thought the opposite of injury prone was a guy coming off his second TJS?

 

My issue isn't that Dye would be injury prone. My issue is that Dye would be atrocious playing every day if one of our guys got hurt for an extended period. Since Nady's health checked out, he's a far, far better option if one of our old, injury prone everyday players gets hurt.

[Rob]

All good points, but it's still ridiculous for you to act like you had some kind of enlightenment to realize that Dye is no longer good as a fulltime player: the majority of people here were well aware of that without you. Use correctly, Dye still potentially could have been a useful option for the Cubs at the right price, though he clearly isn't accepting the "right price" right now. He wouldn't have been the only option as an OF backup on the team. Dye was never my first choice, but to act like you were some kind of voice of reason in regards to him sounds like something The Voice of Reason would say.

 

You're reading too much into my phrasing, which was done simply as a contrast to cubsbearsmagic's post immediately preceding mine.

 

If you prefer Nady over Dye, thats fine, as most here do. However this "Dye is worse than AAAA" stuff is nonsense. Do you have any stats to back this up or is it purely speculation?

 

Yes, I do have numbers to back it up. I haven't been shy about using them either.

[Sammy Sofa]

Arguing that Fuld would ultimately be the better option if your only choices for a fulltime OFer were either him or Dye and the season started tomorrow is likely a sound conclusion. Dye really is THAT bad in the outfield when he's out there as much as possible. What that doesn't necessarily translate to, however, is that Fuld would be better than Dye if both are used in the relatively limited support roles they should be in, even if someone goes down with an injury that requires them to be out there longer than is ideal. It's questionable at which point Fuld becomes a better option than Dye since Rob's argument has hinged on looking at them projected over a full season.

 

Besides, the answer seems simple if an OFer went down for a significant period of time: platoon Fuld and Dye. Dye primarily faces lefties, who he can still hit, and it helps offset his defensive liabilites. If 2 starting OFer's go down, well, sorry, but you're likely fucked no matter who you have on the bench.

[Rob]

Arguing that Fuld would ultimately be the better option if your only choices for a fulltime OFer were either him or Dye and the season started tomorrow is likely a sound conclusion. Dye really is THAT bad in the outfield when he's out there as much as possible. What that doesn't necessarily translate to, however, is that Fuld would be better than Dye if both are used in the relatively limited support roles they should be in, even if someone goes down with an injury that requires them to be out there longer than is ideal. It's questionable at which point Fuld becomes a better option than Dye since Rob's argument has hinged on looking at them projected over a full season.

 

Besides, the answer seems simple if an OFer went down for a significant period of time: platoon Fuld and Dye. Dye primarily faces lefties, who he can still hit, and it helps offset his defensive liabilites. If 2 starting OFer's go down, well, sorry, but you're likely [expletive] no matter who you have on the bench.

 

Oh, I wasn't even going back to that well. I was just referring to WAR. But a thoughtful post deserves a reply.

 

Pre-empting the "use them in the right roles" argument, I'm sure there are plenty of AAAA players exhibiting the same lefty-mashing, bad glove schtik while getting paid the minimum. We just traded one in Jake Fox. And besides, from what I've been told, Dye wants to start. Putting him behind established veterans is one thing. Putting him behind high-upside young guys is another thing. And putting him behind low-upside young guys like Sam Fuld is another one entirely. The idea that we could use Dye in that perfect role is unrealistic. He wouldn't have signed here without being considered the primary backup. I'm not even sure he wouldn't have been signed here without an assurance he could have started to steal the starting jobs in LF or RF if soriano or fukudome struggled.

Edited February 1, 2010 by Rob

[Sammy Sofa]

Just for shits and giggles, how does his defensive and offensive productivity work out if he only faces lefties?

 

And Jake Fox was terrible against lefties (.250 .290 .375 .665). The problem with Cubs' prospects seems to be their consistent lack of ability to hit anyone who has the magical power to hurl a baseball with their left hand, so they most certainly do not have a derth of "AAAA guys" who could just be called up to mash lefties.

 

And where am I putting him behind Fuld? I said to platoon him with Fuld if a starting OFer goes down for a significant period of time.

[Rob]

Just for [expletive] and giggles, how does his defensive and offensive productivity work out if he only faces lefties?

 

And Jake Fox was terrible against lefties (.250 .290 .375 .665). The problem with Cubs' prospects seems to be their consistent lack of ability to hit anyone who has the magical power to hurl a baseball with their left hand, so they most certainly do not have a derth of "AAAA guys" who could just be called up to mash lefties.

 

And where am I putting him behind Fuld? I said to platoon him with Fuld if a starting OFer goes down for a significant period of time.

 

Sorry, was trying to type that on the phone and didn't have the ability to multitask and check splits. Brain farted on Fox. Still, the beauty of AAAA guys is that they're freely available pretty much anywhere. They don't have to come from the Cubs system.

 

A platoon with Fuld is putting Dye behind Fuld versus about 75% of the league's pitchers.

 

Now for the meat and bones... If by some magic Dye managed to play a full season (let's say 650 PA or so) and every single pitcher was a left-hander, he'd be about a 2 or 2.5 win player. (For reference, he was a 1.8 win player in 2008 posting 645 PA with an offensive contribution approaching his 3 year splits versus lefties). Last I checked, about 27% of pitchers are left handed. Let's call it 30% to adjust for the idea that we're putting him in that role with the idea we're gonna pull him for a defensive replacement every once in a while.

 

That puts him around .6 to .75 WAR... which makes even a 3.3 mil contract a bit expensive for the production he provides. Not hugely so, but again, that's assuming he's only put in that perfect role... a role so strict that he likely wouldn't have been willing to sign with the team if he knew what he was getting into.

[Little Slide Rooter]

If he was a fulltime player, yes. Kind of a big caveat.

 

and even then, to call Dye worse than replacement level (or average AAA OF, or whatever) is just false. I don't care how bad his defense is.

 

Up until the second half of last year, when we collapsed after being on his way to what seemed like an easy 40 maybe 50 home run season, Dye has been great ever since joining the White Sox. I dont know what happened that caused him to completely fall off, but I really dont see him as a AAAA player. I doubt he'll get a full time gig at this point, but some team will probably get a good deal on him on a 1 year 2-3 mil deal.

[Rob]

If he was a fulltime player, yes. Kind of a big caveat.

 

and even then, to call Dye worse than replacement level (or average AAA OF, or whatever) is just false. I don't care how bad his defense is.

 

Up until the second half of last year, when we collapsed after being on his way to what seemed like an easy 40 maybe 50 home run season, Dye has been great ever since joining the White Sox. I dont know what happened that caused him to completely fall off, but I really dont see him as a AAAA player. I doubt he'll get a full time gig at this point, but some team will probably get a good deal on him on a 1 year 2-3 mil deal.

 

Easy 40 or 50 HR? The hell?

 

The White Sox played their 81st game on the fourth of July last season. In it, Jermaine Dye hit his 19th home run. He was hitting HR at a pace of one every 15.68 PA. In 14 major league seasons, he's had one season where he hit HR more often than that, and one where he was extremely similar. For his career, he's hit HR at a pace of one every 22.20 PA.

 

He had to stay extremely healthy and continue to perform well above established levels to have a shot at 40. 50 was never on the table... I don't know where you got that.

 

I wont even justify the misconception that he's been "great ever since joining the White Sox" with a derisive comment.

[Sammy Sofa]

Just for [expletive] and giggles, how does his defensive and offensive productivity work out if he only faces lefties?

 

And Jake Fox was terrible against lefties (.250 .290 .375 .665). The problem with Cubs' prospects seems to be their consistent lack of ability to hit anyone who has the magical power to hurl a baseball with their left hand, so they most certainly do not have a derth of "AAAA guys" who could just be called up to mash lefties.

 

And where am I putting him behind Fuld? I said to platoon him with Fuld if a starting OFer goes down for a significant period of time.

 

Sorry, was trying to type that on the phone and didn't have the ability to multitask and check splits. Brain farted on Fox. Still, the beauty of AAAA guys is that they're freely available pretty much anywhere. They don't have to come from the Cubs system.

 

A platoon with Fuld is putting Dye behind Fuld versus about 75% of the league's pitchers.

 

Now for the meat and bones... If by some magic Dye managed to play a full season (let's say 650 PA or so) and every single pitcher was a left-hander, he'd be about a 2 or 2.5 win player. (For reference, he was a 1.8 win player in 2008 posting 645 PA with an offensive contribution approaching his 3 year splits versus lefties). Last I checked, about 27% of pitchers are left handed. Let's call it 30% to adjust for the idea that we're putting him in that role with the idea we're gonna pull him for a defensive replacement every once in a while.

 

That puts him around .6 to .75 WAR... which makes even a 3.3 mil contract a bit expensive for the production he provides. Not hugely so, but again, that's assuming he's only put in that perfect role... a role so strict that he likely wouldn't have been willing to sign with the team if he knew what he was getting into.

 

Well, I never wanted him for $3.3 million. My support of signing him hinges on him being able to be had for cheaper and as a part time player, so in that scenario I don't give a dman who he is "behind." And come on, you're vastly overstating things here by acting like if he did anything besides see LH pitchers he'd be a disaster. Obviously, regularly starting him isn't something to be done, but you keep coming at this like he's constantly one bad play away from ruining a game if he's not facing lefties.