MLBTR on Cubs' contract situations

[Post Count Padder]

The Cubs don't have any options to worry about for 2010, aside from manager Lou Piniella. But here are a few situations they'll face within the next few years:

 

* 2010 is the final year of Derrek Lee's contract, which pays $13MM annually. His heir apparent might be Micah Hoffpauir, who owns a .326/.385/.546 big league line but has just 156 plate appearances. Maybe Hoffpauir is the next Luke Scott, an older rookie who had a monstrous half-season in '06 and then settled in as a useful bat.

* Lefty starter Ted Lilly is also signed through 2010. This was one of the best signings of the 2006-07 offseason, and there were some bad ones. Lilly made 34 starts in each of his first two seasons for the Cubs and is off to a fine start this year. Do the Cubs try to extend him, knowing that he'll turn 35 in January of 2011? It's probably too early to ask.

* Rich Harden is a free agent after the 2009 season. The 27 year-old has logged 27 starts in his Cubs career, surpassing expectations. He's earning $7MM this year and is off to a so-so start due to poor control and a high home run rate. Will some team throw a silly contract at him if he makes 30 starts this year?

* Kevin Gregg's contract is up after '09. As expected, he's walked a ton of guys and been generally uninspiring. Presumably the Cubs will let him leave and promote Carlos Marmol to closer.

[apete6]

1. Lee HAS to be gone after next year. Would a Hoff/Fox platoon work? Would ARAM move to 1st in 2011 if Vitters is ready (he won't be). Maybe do the Hoff/Fox platoon for a year and then move ARAM to 1st.

 

2. I think Lilly will pitch this year and next and then the Cubs will let him go. Hopefully Ted can keep it up for the next 18 months.

 

3. Harden will be Hendry's biggest decision this offseason. Maybe a decent base with a lot of fairly reachable incentives? Let's hope it comes to worrying about losing him as that will mean he has a good and healthy year.

 

4. Kevin Gregg. Hopefully he is just good enough to get Type A without costing the Cubs a ton of games. Let Marmol close in the playoffs. Offer Gregg arby and even if he takes it, doesn't get a huge pay increase to come back and be the same guy next year.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I really dont see Harden back after this year. Hes going to want a multi year, and some team will be reckless enough to do so.

[Clem Fandango]

1. Lee HAS to be gone after next year. Would a Hoff/Fox platoon work? Would ARAM move to 1st in 2011 if Vitters is ready (he won't be). Maybe do the Hoff/Fox platoon for a year and then move ARAM to 1st.

 

Aramis might not even be here in 2011, he has yet another opt out clause after 2010.

[apete6]

1. Lee HAS to be gone after next year. Would a Hoff/Fox platoon work? Would ARAM move to 1st in 2011 if Vitters is ready (he won't be). Maybe do the Hoff/Fox platoon for a year and then move ARAM to 1st.

 

Aramis might not even be here in 2011, he has yet another opt out clause after 2010.

 

I don't think he wants to leave and I don't think the Cubs want him to leave. I would imagine the Cubs do what they did last time and give him a slight raise.

[CubColtPacer]

1. Lee HAS to be gone after next year. Would a Hoff/Fox platoon work? Would ARAM move to 1st in 2011 if Vitters is ready (he won't be). Maybe do the Hoff/Fox platoon for a year and then move ARAM to 1st.

 

Aramis might not even be here in 2011, he has yet another opt out clause after 2010.

 

I don't think he wants to leave and I don't think the Cubs want him to leave. I would imagine the Cubs do what they did last time and give him a slight raise.

 

I hope not. If Aramis would take a 2 or 3 year deal after that season, then I'd probably do it (unless the money was outrageous).

 

But I'm not giving a 4-5 year big money deal to a 32 year old 3rd baseman who would still have potential shoulder issues and who seems to have a history that would suggest breaking down as he ages.

[Eric Clipperton]

I'd sign Harden for multiple years, adjusting for risk of course. Maybe some team will throw big bucks to him, but I doubt it will be anything too crazy. Maybe 2/20 with consecutive club options at 12 and 15, or 3/15-21 base with IP or GS incentives going up to something like 3/36-45 for 100% healthy (using the Harden scale...something like 180 IP = 15? 12 would be good top-end to reward us for guaranteeing him the 5-7M/yr, but I'd pay 15 total for 180 IP assuming he'll continue to be good at worst if not injured, with great a possibility) $5M to keep him around when injured is not bad at all, risk-wise. If we get say 350 IP over 3 years, that's likely worth 25M or so, to me at least.

 

What would everyone pay right now for a 1-year extension?

10? I'd definitely sign this.

I would prob do up to 12, but most might not agree with me. I love Rich Harden. TPR! We doubled our Richness by going from Hill to Harden. Rich Harden's FB/CH + Rich Hill's CB = best of all time 1.00 ERA season, no?