Cardinals best start since '44

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I expect the Cardinals to fade as the year goes on. The defense will begin to be a problem for them, and I don't expect Duncan, Barden, and Molina to hit as well has they have thus far.

 

Will they keep it close? Maybe. I expect them to win around 86 this year.

[illiniguy]

Fontenot, I think will do right about what he's doing. Bradley, I imagine will be a bit better than he has shown thus far. Dempster is doing right about what most thought he would. Fukudome will regress some, but I think it will be a lot better than he was last year. Plus Geo will hit and Aramis will come back at some point.

[webjim25]

Will they keep it close? Maybe. I expect them to win around 86 this year.

 

OK. So you expect the cards to get a relative full year from Carpenter, blow at a minimum 5 less saves (it'll be hard not to), play in a division that has overall regressed substantially, but win the same amount of games.

 

OK. Cool.

[XZero771679666304]

Will they keep it close? Maybe. I expect them to win around 86 this year.

 

OK. So you expect the cards to get a relative full year from Carpenter, blow at a minimum 5 less saves (it'll be hard not to), play in a division that has overall regressed substantially, but win the same amount of games.

 

OK. Cool.

 

How is Carpenter going to pitch a full season? 4 out of 6 months isn't even relatively full, and you're assuming he won't get hurt again, which is far from a sure thing. At this point, Carpenter = Wood/Prior, like it or not.

 

And your pen is no better than last season.

[Guest]

I expect the Cardinals to fade as the year goes on. The defense will begin to be a problem for them, and I don't expect Duncan, Barden, and Molina to hit as well has they have thus far.

 

Will they keep it close? Maybe. I expect them to win around 86 this year.

Well, they are currently on pace to win 110 games. If they play .500 ball from here on out that would give them 85 wins. If they match the Cubs current pace they will win 89 games. If the Cubs keep on their current pace that will have 85 wins.

 

We have to hope they fade at least a little and the Cubs get at least a little better.

 

Edit: Obviously, lol

Edited May 2, 2009 by CubinNY

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I frankly don't see much improvement in the Cards pen, and combined with some poor defense, I expect there to be some late inning losses. When some of the players who are over performing offensively come back to earth, I think they'll settle into being around an 86 win team. Of course, they could out perform that, but they also could underperform it.

 

I'm not expecting any more than a half of season from Carpenter, if that.

[webjim25]

I frankly don't see much improvement in the Cards pen[/b]

so it would remain the same, not obtaing more losses than last year.

 

and combined with some poor defense, I expect there to be some late inning losses.

 

so after these few amount of games, the poor overall D they have shown is the "truth" but everything else about them is going to "go back to 'normal"? Is 25 games a real indicator or not?

When some of the players who are over performing offensively come back to earth, I think they'll settle into being around an 86 win team. Of course, they could out perform that, but they also could underperform it.

 

If they come down to earth, like I expect them to, that would put them on the same pace as last year with reguard to offense.

Schumaker and Greene will produce more O than Miles and Isturitiz, so when everything regresses back to 'normal' they are still improved from last year.

I'm not expecting any more than a half of season from Carpenter, if that.

 

That alone would likely equal 3 more wins.

[manbearcub]

1. Miles and Shumaker had almost identical numbers last year

2. Izturis had a higher OPS than Greene last year

3. There is almost no chance Ludwick equals his offensive numbers from last year

4. Todd Wellemeyer will not go a full season with a 3.71 ERA

5. Yes, the bullpen can still blow saves

[webjim25]

1. Miles and Shumaker had almost identical numbers last year

2. Izturis had a higher OPS than Greene last year

3. There is almost no chance Ludwick equals his offensive numbers from last year

4. Todd Wellemeyer will not go a full season with a 3.71 ERA

5. Yes, the bullpen can still blow saves

 

1. The overall pitching in the division is down substantially. Schumaker would have to have 0 improvment with the diluted pitching. Even if he does, the cards stay the same rather than regress.

2. The first time in history that has happened. Likely the execption rather than the norm.

Even if he regresses to 120 OPS+, thats a difference in less than 2 wins.

3. The same can be said for about 4 Cub players from last year.

4. Right.Because Duncan hardly ever has below average pitchers pitch 10 ERA+ points above league average. If Carpenter pitches half a season and Wellemeyer regresses, the overall starting pitching remains the same at least.

5. Any team 'can' do anything when the play goes from on paper to the field.

[XZero771679666304]

I frankly don't see much improvement in the Cards pen[/b]

so it would remain the same, not obtaing more losses than last year.

 

and combined with some poor defense, I expect there to be some late inning losses.

 

so after these few amount of games, the poor overall D they have shown is the "truth" but everything else about them is going to "go back to 'normal"? Is 25 games a real indicator or not?

When some of the players who are over performing offensively come back to earth, I think they'll settle into being around an 86 win team. Of course, they could out perform that, but they also could underperform it.

 

If they come down to earth, like I expect them to, that would put them on the same pace as last year with reguard to offense.

Schumaker and Greene will produce more O than Miles and Isturitiz, so when everything regresses back to 'normal' they are still improved from last year.

I'm not expecting any more than a half of season from Carpenter, if that.

 

That alone would likely equal 3 more wins.

 

 

 

Are you sure Ludwick is going to OPS .966 again? Is Ankiel going to hit 25 homers? How much are you going to get from Glaus? What if Greene posts numbers similar to his 2008 numbers (Which he is pretty close to on pace to do)? When is Pineiro going to remember he is Pineiro? What about when Lohse moves closer to his 4.61 career ERA? What if Carpenter spends most of the season on the DL? Will you get almost 200 IP out of Wellemeyer and Lohse? Who divvies up Braden Looper's 199 missing innings? What happens if the pen has to take on an even bigger workload than in 2008?

 

There are a lot of legitimate questions here, and the Cards success is predicated a lot more on production from less proven commodities than is the Cubs.

 

That's not to say the Cards will regress in all these facets, but people are right to expect that they might, and that their chances for regression are better than the Cubs.

 

And for the record, I think most people expect the Cubs to regress a bit after losing DeRosa, and expecting Soto to regress just a bit. Fukudome will be better than last year in all likelihood.

 

But the Cubs success depends largely on guys like Ramirez, Soriano, Lee, Zambrano, Marmol and Lilly. Pujols is a dead lock, but guys like Ludwick, Ankiel, Lohse, etc. aren't remotely in the same category as far as track record and reasonably expected contribution. Outside of Pujols, the jury is still out regarding the Cardinals' core players.

 

And the Cardinals pen? Who knows. It could very well be even worse.

 

Feel confident if you like, but don't act confused when people doubt the Cardinals, because there is good reason.

[TruffleShuffle]

4. Todd Wellemeyer will not go a full season with a 3.71 ERA

 

well he went a full season with a 3.71 ERA in 2008, i'm not sure i understand your confidence in making this statement.

[webjim25]

 

 

But the Cubs success depends largely on guys like Ramirez, Soriano, Lee, Zambrano, Marmol and Lilly.

 

Really? So its no problem that the production of Edmonds will not be dublicated and that Hoffpair and Theriot both hit just as well as Ludwick? And Dempster pitched like Pedro in his prime?

 

Fellas dont get me wrong. I am not a blind idiotic Cards fan. However I am very confused. As biased as any fan can be, when I look at it objectively I really dont see how anyone would think the 09 Cards are not 4 games improved but the 09 Cubs are equal. Id bet anyone just about anything they want to bet that the Cards improve 4 games and th Cubs regressed 4 games. I honestly dont see how thats not glaringly obvious. For what its worth, that still makes you NL Central champs.

Edited May 2, 2009 by webjim25

[TruffleShuffle]

i actually think the cards have a pretty solid pen. franklin wasn't good when he got to st. louis but magically turned into a pretty solid reliever. mcclellan is pretty good, reyes is solid when used properly (vs RHP) and i'd expect either motte or perez to turn into good relievers, if not both of them.

 

they're not great but i think they'll be better than last year.

[XZero771679666304]

1. Miles and Shumaker had almost identical numbers last year

2. Izturis had a higher OPS than Greene last year

3. There is almost no chance Ludwick equals his offensive numbers from last year

4. Todd Wellemeyer will not go a full season with a 3.71 ERA

5. Yes, the bullpen can still blow saves

 

1. The overall pitching in the division is down substantially. Schumaker would have to have 0 improvment with the diluted pitching. Even if he does, the cards stay the same rather than regress.

2. The first time in history that has happened. Likely the execption rather than the norm.

Even if he regresses to 120 OPS+, thats a difference in less than 2 wins.

3. The same can be said for about 4 Cub players from last year.

4. Right.Because Duncan hardly ever has below average pitchers pitch 10 ERA+ points above league average. If Carpenter pitches half a season and Wellemeyer regresses, the overall starting pitching remains the same at least.

5. Any team 'can' do anything when the play goes from on paper to the field.

 

Not any as integral to the team's offense as Ludwick is to the Cardinals.

 

Lost in all the hubbub about Cubs players having "career" years is the fact that they were largely role players. Soriano missed over 2 months, Ramirez's numbers were down a bit, and we got nothing much from Lee over the last few months. Zambrano missed time and had a horrid stretch, and outside of Wood, Marmol and Samardzija, the pen wasn't that good. And our best PH, Daryle Ward, stunk.

 

And as far as those who had career years, Fontenot only had about 230 ABs, Reed Johnson's season wasn't even close to his best, and Theriot is actually on pace for a better season in 2009.

 

DeRosa will be missed for sure, the majority of his AB's will be covered by Bradley and Fontenot, so it could be a lot worse.

 

So if you're one of those people chalking up the Cubs 2008 offense to a bunch of career years, not so fast.

[webjim25]

Not any as integral to the team's offense as Ludwick is to the Cardinals.

 

Lost in all the hubbub about Cubs players having "career" years is the fact that they were largely role players. Soriano missed over 2 months, Ramirez's numbers were down a bit, and we got nothing much from Lee over the last few months. Zambrano missed time and had a horrid stretch, and outside of Wood, Marmol and Samardzija, the pen wasn't that good. And our best PH, Daryle Ward, stunk.

 

And as far as those who had career years, Fontenot only had about 230 ABs, Reed Johnson's season wasn't even close to his best, and Theriot is actually on pace for a better season in 2009.

 

DeRosa will be missed for sure, the majority of his AB's will be covered by Bradley and Fontenot, so it could be a lot worse.

 

So if you're one of those people chalking up the Cubs 2008 offense to a bunch of career years, not so fast.

 

XZero77,

 

Man...come on. Add in Dempter and thats a whooooole lot of Cubs players contributing substantial production to that 08 success.

[webjim25]

reyes is solid when used properly (vs RHP) and i'd expect either motte or perez to turn into good relievers, if not both of them.

 

 

Reyes now pitches for Cleveland. All indications suggests that Motte will turn into a very reliable bullpen arm.

[TruffleShuffle]

XZero77,

 

Man...come on. Add in Dempter and thats a whooooole lot of Cubs players contributing substantial production to that 08 success.

 

well wait, you can't say that dempster and a bunch of cub positioned players overproduced last year and can be expected to fall back, but assume that ludwick, skippy, the various third basemen (last year mostly glaus), wellemeyer, lohse and various bullpen pitchers will all be just as good.

[manbearcub]

Not any as integral to the team's offense as Ludwick is to the Cardinals.

 

Lost in all the hubbub about Cubs players having "career" years is the fact that they were largely role players. Soriano missed over 2 months, Ramirez's numbers were down a bit, and we got nothing much from Lee over the last few months. Zambrano missed time and had a horrid stretch, and outside of Wood, Marmol and Samardzija, the pen wasn't that good. And our best PH, Daryle Ward, stunk.

 

And as far as those who had career years, Fontenot only had about 230 ABs, Reed Johnson's season wasn't even close to his best, and Theriot is actually on pace for a better season in 2009.

 

DeRosa will be missed for sure, the majority of his AB's will be covered by Bradley and Fontenot, so it could be a lot worse.

 

So if you're one of those people chalking up the Cubs 2008 offense to a bunch of career years, not so fast.

 

XZero77,

 

Man...come on. Add in Dempter and thats a whooooole lot of Cubs players contributing substantial production to that 08 success.

so, Dempster, Soto, ....Fontenot(?), and _____ will all regress while Ludwick, Shumaker, Greene, and Ankiel will all get better. Right.

[XZero771679666304]

 

 

But the Cubs success depends largely on guys like Ramirez, Soriano, Lee, Zambrano, Marmol and Lilly.

 

Really? So its no problem that the production of Edmonds will not be dublicated and that Hoffpair and Theriot both hit just as well as Ludwick? And Dempster pitched like Pedro in his prime?

 

Fellas dont get me wrong. I am not a blind idiotic Cards fan. However I am very confused. As biased as any fan can be, when I look at it objectively I really dont see how anyone would think the 09 Cards are not 3 games improved but the 09 Cubs are equal. Id bet anyone just about anything they want to bet that the Cards improve 3 games and th Cubs regressed 3 games. I honestly dont see how thats not glaringly obvious. For what its worth, that still makes you NL Central champs.

 

No one is saying the Cubs are equal. It's that the Cards 2008 success was dependent largely on factors that can be reasonable expected to be repeated. It's not that hard to understand. Outside of Pujols, the core of the Cards is unproven. Outside of Wainwright, so is your rotation. Outside of maybe Franklin, so is your pen.

 

And Hoffpauir had how many AB's? Theriot OPSed almost 1.000? Huh? Pedro in his prime? Are you crazy? Micah Hoffpauir? He of the 73 AB's? Yeah, that was a HUGE factor. Felipe Lopez helped that Cards out a lot more than Micah helped the Cubs. EDIT: In twice as many AB's as Micah had, Lopez posted an OPS .130 points higher than the previous high for his career, .964.

 

Yes, the Cubs success depends a whole lot more on guys like Ramirez, Lee, Soriano and Zambrano. Of course it does. They are the core of the team. As far as relative importance goes Theriot = Schumaker, not Ludwick.

 

Oh, and Edmonds is really being replaced by Bradley, not Fukudome. I'll go out on a limb and say we get least as much out of him as we did out of Jimmy Ballgame in 2008, which was good production in limited time.

 

And saying names like Theriot and Hoffpauir when I say Ludwick and Ankiel is absolutely ridiculous. Take those guys away from the Cubs and they still win the division. Take Ludwick and Ankiel away from the 2008 Cards and they're looking up at the Reds.

Edited May 2, 2009 by XZero77

[XZero771679666304]

Not any as integral to the team's offense as Ludwick is to the Cardinals.

 

Lost in all the hubbub about Cubs players having "career" years is the fact that they were largely role players. Soriano missed over 2 months, Ramirez's numbers were down a bit, and we got nothing much from Lee over the last few months. Zambrano missed time and had a horrid stretch, and outside of Wood, Marmol and Samardzija, the pen wasn't that good. And our best PH, Daryle Ward, stunk.

 

And as far as those who had career years, Fontenot only had about 230 ABs, Reed Johnson's season wasn't even close to his best, and Theriot is actually on pace for a better season in 2009.

 

DeRosa will be missed for sure, the majority of his AB's will be covered by Bradley and Fontenot, so it could be a lot worse.

 

So if you're one of those people chalking up the Cubs 2008 offense to a bunch of career years, not so fast.

 

XZero77,

 

Man...come on. Add in Dempter and thats a whooooole lot of Cubs players contributing substantial production to that 08 success.

so, Dempster, Soto, ....Fontenot(?), and _____ will all regress while Ludwick, Shumaker, Greene, and Ankiel will all get better. Right.

 

This isn't even about getting better. Ludwick, Ankiel and Schumaker all had "career" years, one of whom is a converted pitcher, and another just blew up out of MiL obscurity. Any reasonable person would question whether or not these guys will even repeat their performances.

[webjim25]

XZero77,

 

Man...come on. Add in Dempter and thats a whooooole lot of Cubs players contributing substantial production to that 08 success.

 

well wait, you can't say that dempster and a bunch of cub positioned players overproduced last year and can be expected to fall back, but assume that ludwick, skippy, the various third basemen (last year mostly glaus), wellemeyer, lohse and various bullpen pitchers will all be just as good.

 

Truffle,

this is what I mean.

 

Skippy wasnt even that good last year. He was barely league average. In 07 he was better. Im not execting Skip to be Barry Bonds, just slightly above average like he was the last 2 seasons. The 'various' 3Bmen will be replaced by Glause, who is the model of consistency. 120 OPS+ the last 5 seasons. When he is back, I see no reason not to expect that from him. What Barden and Thurston are doing right now is a fluke, but Glaus is a blue print. Between Loshe and Wellemyer, I dont see what the big deal is. Last year they were both like 113 ERA+. That is hardly earth shattering. Dave Duncan has been making scrap heap pitchers servicable his entire career. It isnt that pitched like...i dont know, Ryan Dempster or something outrageous like that. The bullpen has to be better. I did not say great, I said better. Why do they have to be better? Because they were the worst in the league. They are going to be better on default alone.

[TruffleShuffle]

So its no problem that the production of Edmonds will not be dublicated

 

actually when you factor in pie's uselessness, cubs CF hit .290/.374/.484/.858. if fukudome has made the adjustments to be a productive hitter - which certainly seems possible since he's showing more extra base power and maintaining an excellent walk rate - a platoon of fukudome and reed johnson could very easily put up a line similar to cubs' CF in 2008 without much luck involved.

[webjim25]

Not any as integral to the team's offense as Ludwick is to the Cardinals.

 

Lost in all the hubbub about Cubs players having "career" years is the fact that they were largely role players. Soriano missed over 2 months, Ramirez's numbers were down a bit, and we got nothing much from Lee over the last few months. Zambrano missed time and had a horrid stretch, and outside of Wood, Marmol and Samardzija, the pen wasn't that good. And our best PH, Daryle Ward, stunk.

 

And as far as those who had career years, Fontenot only had about 230 ABs, Reed Johnson's season wasn't even close to his best, and Theriot is actually on pace for a better season in 2009.

 

DeRosa will be missed for sure, the majority of his AB's will be covered by Bradley and Fontenot, so it could be a lot worse.

 

So if you're one of those people chalking up the Cubs 2008 offense to a bunch of career years, not so fast.

 

XZero77,

 

Man...come on. Add in Dempter and thats a whooooole lot of Cubs players contributing substantial production to that 08 success.

so, Dempster, Soto, ....Fontenot(?), and _____ will all regress while Ludwick, Shumaker, Greene, and Ankiel will all get better. Right.

 

This isn't even about getting better. Ludwick, Ankiel and Schumaker all had "career" years, one of whom is a converted pitcher, and another just blew up out of MiL obscurity. Any reasonable person would question whether or not these guys will even repeat their performances.

 

In 07, Schumaker OPS'd better than he did in 08. Ankiel;s 08 season was identical to is 07 season. You have a case for Ludwick and only Ludwick.

[XZero771679666304]

XZero77,

 

Man...come on. Add in Dempter and thats a whooooole lot of Cubs players contributing substantial production to that 08 success.

 

well wait, you can't say that dempster and a bunch of cub positioned players overproduced last year and can be expected to fall back, but assume that ludwick, skippy, the various third basemen (last year mostly glaus), wellemeyer, lohse and various bullpen pitchers will all be just as good.

 

Truffle,

this is what I mean.

 

Skippy wasnt even that good last year. He was barely league average. In 07 he was better. Im not execting Skip to be Barry Bonds, just slightly above average like he was the last 2 seasons. The 'various' 3Bmen will be replaced by Glause, who is the model of consistency. 120 OPS+ the last 5 seasons. When he is back, I see no reason not to expect that from him. What Barden and Thurston are doing right now is a fluke, but Glaus is a blue print. Between Loshe and Wellemyer, I dont see what the big deal is. Last year they were both like 113 ERA+. That is hardly earth shattering. Dave Duncan has been making scrap heap pitchers servicable his entire career. It isnt that pitched like...i dont know, Ryan Dempster or something outrageous like that. The bullpen has to be better. I did not say great, I said better. Why do they have to be better? Because they were the worst in the league. They are going to be better on default alone.

 

The bullpen can be worse. This "they have to be better" thing is garbage. Ranking wise they were last, but there is room for statistical regression. And guys like Pineiro, Wellemeyer (120 IP over his previous career high) and Lohse (his most IP since 2003) are important because they ate innings. A lot of them.

 

You have a young, shaky pen. If those guys don't eat a lot again, it will put a lot of pressure and workload on that pen. It is very easy to envision a realistic scenario in which things get truly ugly. And don't forget Looper's 199 innings has to be accounted for, and Wainwright and Carpenter won't do it on their own.

[XZero771679666304]

Not any as integral to the team's offense as Ludwick is to the Cardinals.

 

Lost in all the hubbub about Cubs players having "career" years is the fact that they were largely role players. Soriano missed over 2 months, Ramirez's numbers were down a bit, and we got nothing much from Lee over the last few months. Zambrano missed time and had a horrid stretch, and outside of Wood, Marmol and Samardzija, the pen wasn't that good. And our best PH, Daryle Ward, stunk.

 

And as far as those who had career years, Fontenot only had about 230 ABs, Reed Johnson's season wasn't even close to his best, and Theriot is actually on pace for a better season in 2009.

 

DeRosa will be missed for sure, the majority of his AB's will be covered by Bradley and Fontenot, so it could be a lot worse.

 

So if you're one of those people chalking up the Cubs 2008 offense to a bunch of career years, not so fast.

 

XZero77,

 

Man...come on. Add in Dempter and thats a whooooole lot of Cubs players contributing substantial production to that 08 success.

so, Dempster, Soto, ....Fontenot(?), and _____ will all regress while Ludwick, Shumaker, Greene, and Ankiel will all get better. Right.

 

This isn't even about getting better. Ludwick, Ankiel and Schumaker all had "career" years, one of whom is a converted pitcher, and another just blew up out of MiL obscurity. Any reasonable person would question whether or not these guys will even repeat their performances.

 

In 07, Schumaker OPS'd better than he did in 08. Ankiel;s 08 season was identical to is 07 season. You have a case for Ludwick and only Ludwick.

 

Sample size FTW, sorry. Theriot OPs'ed .934 in 2006, so I guess 2008 wasn't his career year, right? In order for a season to be considered a career year (or even a valid sample), playing somewhere in the vicinity of a full season should be a criteria.