Cubs scouting vs development

[Tim]

There has been some debate why the Cubs haven't produced more quality position players - has it been development, scouting or both that have, well, sucked.

 

One thought I just had as a way to look into this would be to look at the hs players the Cubs scouts identified and drafted, but did not sign. How did they develop relative to the players the Cubs did sign? How did they develop relative to the unsigned players of other teams? Is there a different explanation other than the quality of the development efforts, such as a selection bias that the Cubs were drafting players EVERYONE knew were good but had no chance of signing?

 

What are everyone's thoughts? Does this make sense as a way to look into this? Thoughts on the unsigned players themselves?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

As a big market team, I'm not sure much should be put into who the Cubs drafted but didn't sign. In most cases it seems to be guys who are nearly universally regarded as higher picks and the Cubs are hoping that money changes their mind. Wilson and Gray from this last draft are good examples.

[Guest]

As a big market team, I'm not sure much should be put into who the Cubs drafted but didn't sign. In most cases it seems to be guys who are nearly universally regarded as higher picks and the Cubs are hoping that money changes their mind. Wilson and Gray from this last draft are good examples.

 

Exactly. If you assume about 50% of the guys drafted sign, then a sizable share are players who only fell due to injury or signability (or both) and don't necessarily reflect scouting prowess. The remaining are generally guys who fell to the 36th round for a reason.

 

Here is a look at the top 50 by class going into this season, there are 5 Cubs who made it and all were signability picks who couldn't come to terms with the Cubs: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/college/season-preview/2009/267601.html

 

Seniors:

5. C/3B Preston Clark, Texas (2007 33rd rounder)

 

Juniors:

24. RHP Alex Wilson, Texas A&M (2009 10th rounder)

 

Sophomores:

7. 3B Victor Sanchez, San Diego (2007 25th rounder)

 

Freshmen:

4. RHP Sonny Gray, Vanderbilt (2008 27th rounder)

49. RHP/2B Tony Zych, Louisville (2008 46th rounder)

[Mephistopheles]

Sanchez, Wilson and Gray should all be first rounders.