PECOTA Weighted Means Spreadsheet

[Mephistopheles]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/#pecota_wms

 

Maybe I should re-up my subscription...

[wilk]

I would love the person who secretly PMed me this spreadsheet. Think of it this way... you'd secretly make OOTP10 a lot better?

[TruffleShuffle]

milton bradley's numbers are bonerific. i'd take a .359 obp out of theriot also.

 

and at this point i'd gladly take 286/386/439 from fukudome.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/#pecota_wms

 

Maybe I should re-up my subscription...

 

I just did. They get a few months out of me from like February to May every year.

[inari]

milton bradley's numbers are bonerific. i'd take a .359 obp out of theriot also.

 

and at this point i'd gladly take 286/386/439 from fukudome.

 

From a center fielder that'd be outstanding.

[Mephistopheles]

Josh Vitters' top comps: Craig Repoz, Eddie Williams, Mark Lewis, Kelly Gruber

 

What a list!

 

Let's track the PECOTA projections for one Felix Pie over the last three years

 

2007 .288/.342/.480

2008 .291/.344/.479

2009 .271/.329/.435

 

Damn.

 

We are projected to have one starter with an ERA under 4.00, Rich Harden.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

We are projected to have one starter with an ERA under 4.00, Rich Harden.

 

That really doesn't surprise me.

[TruffleShuffle]

 

We are projected to have one starter with an ERA under 4.00, Rich Harden.

 

hasn't pecota been projecting zambrano to have an ERA over 4.00 for years now? i guess they were pretty close the last couple of years.

 

they've got zambrano, dempster and lilly (and marshall too) in the low 4's, which would make for a fine rotation. pecota HATES samardzija but it probably has no idea what the hell to do with him.

[TruffleShuffle]

oh and wow on pecota's matt wieters boner. it's like i wrote the software myself.

[inari]

BP had a good piece on Matt Weiters this week. They have him as the best catcher in baseball next year by a decent margin. I like Josh Vitters and all, but eek.

[TruffleShuffle]

BP had a good piece on Matt Weiters this week. They have him as the best catcher in baseball next year by a decent margin. I like Josh Vitters and all, but eek.

 

yeah of course the cubs, a wealthy organization that can spend freely on the draft, lets a sure thing fall through their hands so they can draft a high school hitter, even though they have as bad a record of developing high school hitters as any organization in the game.

 

fail.

[TruffleShuffle]

fun with pecota:

 

it projects bradley to have a .311 EqA, highest on the team and tied with guys like A-Rod and matt holliday.

 

matt wieters is projected to have the 5th highest EqA in baseball. even i don't think this will come true.

 

cub hitting lines:

bradley: 294/402/525 (EqA: .311)

soto: 288/370/519 (.297)

soriano: 281/348/538 (.294)

ramirez: 288/363/509 (.292)

fukudome: 286/386/439 (.287)

lee: 289/369/464 (.285) -- only 19 HRs

hoffpauir: 261/327/489 (.273)

fontenot: 278/356/440 (.273)

theriot: 283/359/350 (.256)

johnson: 276/337/405 (.256)

gathright: 266/337/312 (.247)

miles: 280/327/335 (.238)

bako: 234/310/332 (.221)

 

others of interest:

edmonds: 265/363/491 (.288)

derosa: 269/354/414 (.275)

pie: 274/333/435 (.263)

cedeno: 262/316/385 (.242)

blanco: 242/289/344 (.216)

 

so as long as the cubs play mostly fontenot at 2B, pecota doesn't think there will be much drop off from derosa, purely at that position.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Wow. PECOTA is seriously slurping the Cubs offense. Hard.

[TruffleShuffle]

alfonso soriano's top 4 pecota comps: don baylor, roy sievers, andre dawson, dusty baker :-))

 

and ryan theriot's #4 pecota comp is, of course, david eckstein.

[Mephistopheles]

 

We are projected to have one starter with an ERA under 4.00, Rich Harden.

 

hasn't pecota been projecting zambrano to have an ERA over 4.00 for years now? i guess they were pretty close the last couple of years.

 

they've got zambrano, dempster and lilly (and marshall too) in the low 4's, which would make for a fine rotation. pecota HATES samardzija but it probably has no idea what the hell to do with him.

 

Well remember, PECOTA is the middle of the projection bell curve. Given some variance, we'd expect at least one of the four to be under 4 with near certainty. Last year they had Zambrano at 3.81 and in 2007 they had him at 3.84. This is the first year since 2002 that PECOTA has had him over a 4.00 ERA, I believe.

[hankp101]

The biggest surprise I have run across is Cristian Guzman at .323/.361/.455.

[TruffleShuffle]

The biggest surprise I have run across is Cristian Guzman at .323/.361/.455.

 

i had to look this up for myself because i thought you must have made a mistake.

[Mephistopheles]

.311/.395/.544 - Matt Wieters

.302/.365/.500 - Jody Gerut (in PECTO!)

.278/.386/.486 - Elijah Dukes

 

All three with EqA's over .300.

[Mephistopheles]

The biggest surprise I have run across is Cristian Guzman at .323/.361/.455.

 

Thats about what he's hit over his last 800 PAs since he took 2006 off due to injury.

[TruffleShuffle]

i looked up jody gerut's stats to see if maybe he'd been beating up on minor league pitching in 2006-07 and that's why pecota liked him - no stats. what the hell was he up to?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

i looked up jody gerut's stats to see if maybe he'd been beating up on minor league pitching in 2006-07 and that's why pecota liked him - no stats. what the hell was he up to?

 

Rehabbing a knee injury, I think.

[TruffleShuffle]

i looked up jody gerut's stats to see if maybe he'd been beating up on minor league pitching in 2006-07 and that's why pecota liked him - no stats. what the hell was he up to?

 

Rehabbing a knee injury, I think.

 

for two years?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

i looked up jody gerut's stats to see if maybe he'd been beating up on minor league pitching in 2006-07 and that's why pecota liked him - no stats. what the hell was he up to?

 

Rehabbing a knee injury, I think.

 

for two years?

 

Apparently.

http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2008/dec/19/s20padres/

[hankp101]

The biggest surprise I have run across is Cristian Guzman at .323/.361/.455.

 

Thats about what he's hit over his last 800 PAs since he took 2006 off due to injury.

 

His BABIPs the last two years have be incredibly high compared to the rest of his career though, and he is at least 31. I could have seen that being his 90 percentile projection, but it seems very optimistic for his 50.

[dew1679666265]

fun with pecota:

fontenot: 278/356/440 (.273)

miles: 280/327/335 (.238)

derosa: 269/354/414 (.275)

cedeno: 262/316/385 (.242)

so as long as the cubs play mostly fontenot at 2B, pecota doesn't think there will be much drop off from derosa, purely at that position.

 

I'd love it if Fontenot does that. I kinda doubt it, but hope I'm very wrong.

 

And I laugh that Cedeno, who we just traded, projects to be better than the guy we just gave a 2 year/4.5 million dollar deal to. Not a Cedeno fan at all, but I'd have preferred him to overpaying Miles.