Marginal benefit

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just for the sake of argument.

 

 

Which is greater, going forward?

 

The gap between Derrek Lee and Mark Teixeira

 

Or..

 

The gap between Ryan Dempster and Sean Marshall PLUS the gap between Kerry Wood and Juan Cruz/Jeremy Affeldt

[Mephistopheles]

I'll go on record as to saying I'll take Sean Marshall in our rotation over Ryan Dempster next season, everything else equal.

[fromthestretch]

I'll go on record as to saying I'll take Sean Marshall in our rotation over Ryan Dempster next season, everything else equal.

 

I'll agree with this.

 

As a starter, Dempster never put up a season even close to what he did in 2008. Signing him to a long-term deal, you have to believe that he's not only capable of replicating that success (or at least come reasonably close to it) but that he can do it into his mid-thirties. Both are rather risky assumptions.

 

While Marshall isn't going to match what Dempster did this season, he's shown the past couple years that he can be effective, he's five years younger, and he isn't going to cost eight figures over the next 3-4 years.

[Proven Veteran]

We would get picks for Wood and Dempster (and give up ours for Tex/Cruz), and presumably get something for Lee. So add those marginal differences also... :-k

[BeerHere]

Dempster surprised the hell outta me in '08. It depends what numbers he's after.

 

I'd like to give Marshall a shot in the rotation but I don't see him as a middle of the rotation guy. At this point he's probably a #4 or 5 guy but he could surprise everyone too. If it means getting Peavy, Marshall and a pick are better than Dempster and whoever.

 

Tex is an upgrade over DLee and I'd love to see that happen. He's seeking huge coin though and with the sale of the Cubs, high payroll and Hendry's comments that the team doesn't need many changes, I highly doubt Tex is a Cub in 09.

[BeerHere]

I'll go on record as to saying I'll take Sean Marshall in our rotation over Ryan Dempster next season, everything else equal.

 

I wouldn't go that far. Dempster had a fantastic (contract) year. He may fall apart but I doubt that Marshall will put up anything close to Dempster '08.

 

How much of your opinion is based on your frustration with the way Dempster showed up in game 1? I'll freely admit that awful start put the Cubs in a hole and set the tone for the rest of the series. I'm still pissed at Dempster and have a hard time seeing past it.

[Mephistopheles]

My opinion has nothing to do with one random game. I'm not stupid.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

We would get picks for Wood and Dempster (and give up ours for Tex/Cruz), and presumably get something for Lee. So add those marginal differences also... :-k

 

The difference in picks is pretty negligible(unless Affeldt is the reliever signed), and I didn't include the return on Lee both for simplicity's sake and so that we didn't get into a "we're getting too much/little for Lee" debate, which wasn't my intention.

[fromthestretch]

As a starter the last two years, Marshall has done the following:

 

26 GS, 139 IP, 143 H, 63 ER, 18 HR, 45 BB, 100 K, 1.35 WHIP, 4.08 ERA

 

At the very least, he should be replacing Marquis in the rotation.

[CubColtPacer]

We would get picks for Wood and Dempster (and give up ours for Tex/Cruz), and presumably get something for Lee. So add those marginal differences also... :-k

 

The difference in picks is pretty negligible(unless Affeldt is the reliever signed), and I didn't include the return on Lee both for simplicity's sake and so that we didn't get into a "we're getting too much/little for Lee" debate, which wasn't my intention.

 

Sort of. Losing two type A players and signing 2 others does have its advantages. If the Cubs did that, they would:

 

lose their first and 2nd round pick

 

but they would gain

either 2 firsts, 1st and a 2nd, or 2 seconds (depending on two things..if the teams that signed them are in the top 15, and if they are the highest ranked free agent signed by those teams) and 2 sandwich picks.

 

So the Cubs would pick up 2 extra high picks with the swap. It would be even better if the 2nd type A free agent was also among the best 15 teams and they would effectively swap their 2nd for another team's first. Even if it just is 2 extra sandwich picks though, that is still significant.

Edited November 4, 2008 by CubColtPacer

[JeffH]

We would get picks for Wood and Dempster (and give up ours for Tex/Cruz), and presumably get something for Lee. So add those marginal differences also... :-k

 

The difference in picks is pretty negligible(unless Affeldt is the reliever signed), and I didn't include the return on Lee both for simplicity's sake and so that we didn't get into a "we're getting too much/little for Lee" debate, which wasn't my intention.

 

Sort of. Losing two type A players and signing 2 others does have its advantages. If the Cubs did that, they would:

 

lose their first and 2nd round pick

 

but they would gain

Anaheim's first rounder, Arizona's 2nd rounder (I believe Arizona is the last team whose 1st round pick is protected), and 2 sandwich picks.

 

So the Cubs would pick up 2 extra high picks with the swap. It would be even better if the 2nd type A free agent was also among the best 15 teams and they would effectively swap their 2nd for another team's first. Even if it just is 2 extra sandwich picks though, that is still significant.

 

Dempster to LAA and Wood to ARZ, or vice versa?

[CubColtPacer]

As a starter the last two years, Marshall has done the following:

 

26 GS, 139 IP, 143 H, 63 ER, 18 HR, 45 BB, 100 K, 1.35 WHIP, 4.08 ERA

 

At the very least, he should be replacing Marquis in the rotation.

 

I'm not sure it would be wise to have both Harden and Marshall in the rotation. That's a likely 160 innings that you'll have to find from a 6th and possibly 7th starter. Harden is effective enough that even with missing 1/3 of the season the numbers for that spot are still excellent. I'm not so sure you can say that about Marshall. Sure, he'll give you a good 110-130 innings. But if the other 70-90 innings is filled in with an emergency starter, will that be worth more than Marquis?

 

Plus with Harden having Marshall as that extra starter becomes even more valuable. He'll likely be able to be used to his full potential in that swing starter role because of those injury concerns with Harden.

[CubColtPacer]

We would get picks for Wood and Dempster (and give up ours for Tex/Cruz), and presumably get something for Lee. So add those marginal differences also... :-k

 

The difference in picks is pretty negligible(unless Affeldt is the reliever signed), and I didn't include the return on Lee both for simplicity's sake and so that we didn't get into a "we're getting too much/little for Lee" debate, which wasn't my intention.

 

Sort of. Losing two type A players and signing 2 others does have its advantages. If the Cubs did that, they would:

 

lose their first and 2nd round pick

 

but they would gain

Anaheim's first rounder, Arizona's 2nd rounder (I believe Arizona is the last team whose 1st round pick is protected), and 2 sandwich picks.

 

So the Cubs would pick up 2 extra high picks with the swap. It would be even better if the 2nd type A free agent was also among the best 15 teams and they would effectively swap their 2nd for another team's first. Even if it just is 2 extra sandwich picks though, that is still significant.

 

Dempster to LAA and Wood to ARZ, or vice versa?

 

Oops. Thanks for the correction. I'll edit the post above. I didn't actually mean those two to those particular teams. The most likely result would still then be that one of the top 15 teams would sign one of them, and one of the bottom 15 teams would sign the other one. So the Cubs would get a 1st and a 2nd and two sandwich picks while giving up a 1st and a 2nd.

[fromthestretch]

As a starter the last two years, Marshall has done the following:

 

26 GS, 139 IP, 143 H, 63 ER, 18 HR, 45 BB, 100 K, 1.35 WHIP, 4.08 ERA

 

At the very least, he should be replacing Marquis in the rotation.

 

I'm not sure it would be wise to have both Harden and Marshall in the rotation. That's a likely 160 innings that you'll have to find from a 6th and possibly 7th starter. Harden is effective enough that even with missing 1/3 of the season the numbers for that spot are still excellent. I'm not so sure you can say that about Marshall. Sure, he'll give you a good 110-130 innings. But if the other 70-90 innings is filled in with an emergency starter, will that be worth more than Marquis?

 

Plus with Harden having Marshall as that extra starter becomes even more valuable. He'll likely be able to be used to his full potential in that swing starter role because of those injury concerns with Harden.

 

I was kind of thinking that Gaudin could step into that role if Marshall moves to the rotation.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

You're right, I forgot that the 2 sandwich picks aren't ours to begin with, that does make a difference.

[Backtobanks]

I'll go on record as to saying I'll take Sean Marshall in our rotation over Ryan Dempster next season, everything else equal.

 

It's amazing to me the disrespect Dempster gets from some posters. He was our most consistent starter last year. While his 2008 season doesn't guarantee he can do it again, it shouldn't be looked at as a complete fluke either. Also, I'm always amazed that so many people think these athletes have the natural talent to hit 40+ HRs or win 18 games with a 3.00 ERA during their contract year and then put their talent to sleep for the rest of their contract.

[Mephistopheles]

What's more amazing is how blind and stupid people are.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

What's more amazing is how blind and stupid people are.

 

That's not necessary.

 

 

You don't think Dempster's change in repertoire makes his success more sustainable?

[Mephistopheles]

Considering he really didn't change it, no. I'm not expecting a total collapse, I'm just not expecting anything close to a repeat. It would be stupid to think he can sustain this level of production. While it's possible, it's simply not likely. He's much more likely to revert to being a 4.20-4.30 RA starting pitcher - which was my opinion on him two years ago, and last year - if you recall (also where I was slammed for supporting him to be in the rotation, but that's a different discussion). I see them as being similar pitchers. Guys who can give innings and post an RA in the low 4.00s. Really as starting pitchers they're interchangeable. Given the cost of keeping Dempster, not signing him would seem like a no brainer if we didn't have Rich Harden.

[fromthestretch]

I'll go on record as to saying I'll take Sean Marshall in our rotation over Ryan Dempster next season, everything else equal.

 

It's amazing to me the disrespect Dempster gets from some posters. He was our most consistent starter last year. While his 2008 season doesn't guarantee he can do it again, it shouldn't be looked at as a complete fluke either. Also, I'm always amazed that so many people think these athletes have the natural talent to hit 40+ HRs or win 18 games with a 3.00 ERA during their contract year and then put their talent to sleep for the rest of their contract.

 

This really has nothing to do with him having this success in a contract year. It has a lot to do with him never coming anywhere close to this production as a starter prior to this season. I believe he came into 2008 with a career ERA just below 5.00 and a WHIP over 1.50 as a starter. Perhaps he made some changes that will allow him to be more successful, but it's not a stretch to think that he could post an ERA in the mid 4's and a WHIP approaching 1.40 next season. That's not taking anything away from what he did in 2008. He was great. But it wouldn't be wise to base an expensive four-year deal on that and that alone.