The Tyler Colvin Reassurance Thread.

[Mephistopheles]

I didn't see that post, for whatever reason.....For what it's worth, Billy Beane gave up on teaching plate discipline.

[biittner77]

From what I saw of Colvin (@ 4.5 games) He's got the arm to play RF or CF. If I'm remembering correctly he threw a guy out going from 1 to 3rd in one game we saw, and another at home (from RF).

 

.

 

How is his range/ instincts?

[CubinNY]

From what I saw of Colvin (@ 4.5 games) He's got the arm to play RF or CF. If I'm remembering correctly he threw a guy out going from 1 to 3rd in one game we saw, and another at home (from RF).

 

.

 

How is his range/ instincts?

I have no way of knowing. I can give a rough outline of what I saw but I'm not qualified to make those judgments. It's hard to tell. I guess most of the balls he should have got to he did, but then again most of them were hit right at him

 

I will say that by the time I saw him this year Fuld was playing CF and Fuld can go get them. He made at least on great catch to save "The Shark" some runs.

[Guest]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/prospect-pulse/2008/266847.html

 

This is more about Samardzija than Colvin but it really is about both of them:

 

"I left scratching my head with that guy," said an American League scout. "There's no consistency, but he's something. He's a guy who just needs at-bats. He's got some pop, some bat speed, there's just no frequency there. He's a guy that you would like to take a chance on, no question, to see if it does pan out."

 

One area that Colvin did make progress in was seeing more pitches. Colvin drew just 15 walks in 519 plate appearances last year, just three percent of his trips to the plate. This season Colvin walked 44 times in 597 plate appearances (seven percent), but the overall production didn't progress. He also moved off of center field and played exclusively in left once June came, as he's about an average runner and does not have the arm strength for right field.

 

"There's something in the swing you like," said one Southern League manager. "There's still some work to do, but there's definitely some talent there; you can see it in the swing. He has to make some adjustments. He's not that pure lefty—there's a lot of uphill in the swing—but you definitely see the tools there."

 

Samardzija:

 

"There's something to be said about challenging somebody, and I think that was a clear case of someone who needed to be challenged," said one Southern League pitching coach. "When they called him up, I was like, wow, because I didn't see all the stuff that he was hyped to have. It was low-90s (fastball), decent breaking ball, then I hear he goes up and he's carving in Triple-A, and I see him pitching in the big leagues—it's not the same guy. So kudos to Chicago on challenging him—it's paid off."

 

Two other pitching coaches noted that they thought Samardzija was focusing more on getting his balance, his release point and the timing out of his glove right, rather than focusing on attacking hitters.

 

"It seemed like he was trying to be so under control that you don't see the real stuff," said one pitching coach.

[craig]

Is there any concern about moving him to the corners when Fuld got demoted? Was that making room for Fuld or can't he handle CF? If the Cubs moved him out of CF to make room for Fuld that is really dumb- unless they already believe he can stick in CF.

 

Larry, I think it is meaningful. As NY suggests, I assume it means they don't think that Colvin is as good a defensive CFer as is Fuld. They love Fuld in center (Fox, who has played extensively with Pie, said that Fuld is the best defensive CFer he's played with...), so being viewed as less than Fuld doesn't necessarily mean Colvin will never play big-league CF.

 

But most likely they don't project Colvin as a regular big-leaguer CFer. Colvin isn't even fast enough to be a serious base-stealer in AA, and most minor-leaguers projected as big-league CFers are expected to be base-stealing fast.

 

That said, every scouting observation I've ever read has been very favorable regarding Colvin's defense. Strong arm, accurate arm, good at catching what he can reach, and gets good jumps. [Edit, OK change that. The BA article just posted by Cal suggests he doesn't have a RF arm. That's too bad.]

 

I imagine him to be something like Fukudome. Really good in RF, relative to other RFers. But given how many defense-first speedster CFers there are, Fukudome's not special in center.

 

But I think everything is good regarding colvin as a defensive corner. We're not talking Jason Dubois or Eric Patterson or Matt Murton here, we're talking a guy whose defense will help him, not hold him back.

 

All that said, I do hold some hopes for him in center. Lou likes guys who can hit. There were questions about both Reed Johnson (he hadn't played all that much center before this year) and Edmonds (awfully slow for center.) But they've been the guys. If we don't have any CFers who can hit, and colvin ends up being a good hitter, it's at least theoretically possible he would get some CF time even if he's a sound but not spectacular CFer.

[TruffleShuffle]

great, they moved him off of lf? that basically makes 4th outfielder his ceiling unless he really ups the offensive output.

[craig]

Fleita talked at length at an AA game shortly before Colvin started to hit, and mentioned that Colvin had just changed his stance. Anyway, a poster at bleacher bums is friends with some Smokies people and was in on this, and had the chance to ask Fleita a few questions. He said that at that time Fleita believed/expected that Colvin could become an all-star (yes, in the majors, not in an Indy League...) and saw him as a CF.

 

I mention that because while BA has their sources, the Cubs are watching their guys continuously. BA can talk to a scout who hadn't seen Samardz for ages, or a SL guy who saw him twice this spring. But the Cubs people are watching their players every game.

 

I'm not saying that means the Cubs are the best scouts. But that sometimes if there is a difference of opinion between the Cubs and BA, it's not 100% certain that the Cubs will be wrong or ill-informed. They may be better informed about what their people can and can't do than BA, because they simply have much more observational basis for their judgments.

 

Obviously any comment by Fleita is, well, by Fleita. We know the Fleita-gush. He's not only a glass-is-half-full guy, he's a glass-is-overflowing guy. He probably still thinks that Fox can be a good big-league catcher, or that Harvey's tool-you-can't-teach can still make him into a star slugger, or whatever. So Fleita's view may be total dopey.

 

But Fleita apparently is still pretty convinced that Colvin will make very good, and that he can play center.

[badnews]

Craig, you're confusing me here. In your first reply to my post you tried to give Colvin's major league numbers a bump from the Juan Encarnacion level I had him pegged at, but in doing so you put him squarely in Andre Ethier territory, which defies credibility.

 

Then you basically said "Fleita is 100% full of crap, but he had good things to say about Colvin." I don't understand why you would even mention that. We've all read so much nonsense about scrubs from this guy it is simply ludicrous. You're almost doing your player a disservice by bringing that up.

 

I feel like people are grasping at straws here. If Colvin was a Brewers prospect wouldn't you consider him a joke? Colvin has essentially repeated a level with a, what , .735 OPS, and we're reaching for Andre Ethier at the plate in the majors?

 

I think it's disingenuous. The reality is, guys like Colvin are like the 17th best prospects in other organizations. I'm not sure why we're even having this discussion. Do Phillies fans sit around and try and prop up Greg Golson?

 

Tyler Colvin was 6th in the entire minor leagues in outs made, 2nd at the AA level. This is like the old game of pretending that Justin Berg's groundball rate makes him anything about Scott Munter at the major league level, or worse. Yeah, Scott Munter is good at getting groundballs but he is simply awful at pitching and Berg is the same way, yet someone keeps posting some quote about "Berg having the 2nd best sinker in organized baseball behind Brandon Webb." I mean get out.

 

Most of the positives in this topic seem like nothing more than wishful thinking.

[imb]

if you could talk to tim wilken, would you punch him in the head?

[badnews]

Of course not. There's a couple things I do find irritating concerning Wilken though.

 

One is that people on here made him seem like the sole mastermind of that 2004 Rays draft. But the reality of it seems to be that draft appears to be much more indicative of the Rays philosophy of drafting philosophy than Wilken's. I mean, people made it seem like we were going to be flush with badass high school arms like McGee and Davis and so on and so forth.

 

Then, after Colvin was drafted, he got all defensive and said Well, people I said I was wrong about drafting Alex Rios, and look at Alex Rios, Colvin is the same story, basically. And basically the Cubs passed up Snider because of his "bad body." It seems to be a continuation of overvaluing guys who may sort of have in a sense "five tools" but none of them are any good or add up to anything on the baseball field.

 

One second after the pick was made you knew it was bad and Snider or even Conger should've been picked. This isn't hindsight, this is what was said one second after the pick was made, when all of a sudden everyone was scrambling to find out who the hell this guy was and how far down BA's Baseball Tracker and Top 200 prospects he was.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the Colvin pick was his own arrogance, trying to once again turn up a Rios and show that he's outsmarting everyone.

 

But no, I would certainly not inflict bodily harm on him.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Craig, you're confusing me here. In your first reply to my post you tried to give Colvin's major league numbers a bump from the Juan Encarnacion level I had him pegged at, but in doing so you put him squarely in Andre Ethier territory, which defies credibility.

 

Then you basically said "Fleita is 100% full of crap, but he had good things to say about Colvin." I don't understand why you would even mention that. We've all read so much nonsense about scrubs from this guy it is simply ludicrous. You're almost doing your player a disservice by bringing that up.

 

I feel like people are grasping at straws here. If Colvin was a Brewers prospect wouldn't you consider him a joke? Colvin has essentially repeated a level with a, what , .735 OPS, and we're reaching for Andre Ethier at the plate in the majors?

 

I think it's disingenuous. The reality is, guys like Colvin are like the 17th best prospects in other organizations. I'm not sure why we're even having this discussion. Do Phillies fans sit around and try and prop up Greg Golson?

 

Tyler Colvin was 6th in the entire minor leagues in outs made, 2nd at the AA level. This is like the old game of pretending that Justin Berg's groundball rate makes him anything about Scott Munter at the major league level, or worse. Yeah, Scott Munter is good at getting groundballs but he is simply awful at pitching and Berg is the same way, yet someone keeps posting some quote about "Berg having the 2nd best sinker in organized baseball behind Brandon Webb." I mean get out.

 

Most of the positives in this topic seem like nothing more than wishful thinking.

 

If there's a need for a "Tyler Colvin Reassurance Thread", I think everyone recognizes Colvin's many faults.

[craig]

Craig, you're confusing me here. In your first reply to my post you tried to give Colvin's major league numbers a bump from the Juan Encarnacion level I had him pegged at, but in doing so you put him squarely in Andre Ethier territory, which defies credibility.

 

Then you basically said "Fleita is 100% full of crap, but he had good things to say about Colvin." I don't understand why you would even mention that. ....

 

Most of the positives in this topic seem like nothing more than wishful thinking.

 

You said something to the effect that at max he was .750'ish reserve. I suggested that wasn't true, and that there were indicators to suggest he could hit for power, or for low walks, or for a lot of XBH, and possibly even walk some. If he was to hit the high end on all four of those categories, he could be squarely in Ethier territory. (With better defense. But even at my most optimistic projection Colvin has no chance of reaching Ethier's walk-levels.) Likely, no. Most likely he'll fall short of his plausible possibilities in one or more of the four areas I mentioned. In which case he'll fall shy. But there is a lot of space in between .750 (at best, as you implied) and where Ethier is this year (.889). He's got a shot to be an .800+ guy; if that seems beyond credible/plausible/possible to you, then I don't think you're being objective. You're not a dumb guy, so I assume you can also fathom the distinction between possible and probable. So while .800+ is *not* probable, it is possible. Your earlier post suggested that .750 was the best we could hope for. Not true.

 

On Fleita, I am a complex enough thinker to recognize that he is a gusher, but that sometimes he is unexpectedly vindicated. (Using the logic that if Fleita every speaks favorably about a player with uninspiring minor-league stats, that the player is certain to fail, that would mean that Theriot, Soto, and Samardz could not be showing big-league success.) So it's possible that Fleita will be vindicated in the Colvin case, as he appears to have been vindicated re Soto and Samardz. Second, I am a complex enough thinker to realize that no matter how dumb management might be, they still make decisions regarding playing time, playing position, and opportunity. If management decides a guy can't play center, it doesn't matter what BA says: the guy won't play center for us. But if management decides Colvin can play center, he may get an opportunity to do so, even if BA doesn't think he's well suited. So since management-decided opportunity is important, I think it's always relevant to listen to what positions management thinks a player is suited for.