Bruce's article on Theriot

[Jon]

I don't think Theriot is worried about stats per se. As he told me, he's worried about trying to get on base more and contribute to the team winning. He seems to recognize and understand his limitations. It'll be up to the manager to know when to give Theriot the proper time off and to recognize when and if those limitations begin to cut into the player's effectiveness.

Yeah, and that's good to hear. My comments were mostly general, although based on what Theriot did last year, it could be easy to be discouraged. Then again, based on Piniella's decision to start the season with Theriot at short, Ryan probably didn't have a huge reason to feel a lack of confidence in his abilities. Certainly his manager didn't.

 

It's certainly nice to see the increased patience and productivity this team has. Fans can't really tell why the change has occurred, but whatever the reasons are, I'm enjoying it.

[VanceJergins]

Et tu, Bruce?

Sorry for my ignorance, but are you saying something like "not you, Bruce," here? Or are you just asking his take?

 

I think its "and you"

Well I know what it means in French, I was just wondering what he meant by it

It's parodying a famous line from Julius Caesar, "Et tu, Brute?", meaning "You too, Brutus?", just prior to being stabbed in the back by someone he considered a friend.

 

I used it because Bruce mentioned Theriot was gritting his way into being good. And to try to be funny and stuff. Which apparently failed miserably, as people either didn't get the reference or thought I was serious.

Got it! That's actually quite clever. I immediately saw French and took it literally. FWIW the latin meaning is slightly different from the French which confused me further still.

 

Not to hijack the thread over something stupid, but isn't the Latin the same there, literally meaning "and you"?

[CubColtPacer]

When he was doing good he was actually pulling the ball for once..But now he's back to trying to hit everything into RF..The guy is just to predictable

 

He is very predictable..but he wasn't pulling the ball when he was doing well, as this hit chart indicates:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?playerID=444135&statType=1

 

He grounds out to left field, he flies out to right field. Most of his hits are to either center field or some to right field, with a couple doubles down each line.

 

And he hadn't really cooled off before last night. Here are his last 10 games:

 

May 10th: 2 for 4

May 11th: 1 for 3, 1 BB

May 12th: 2 for 3, 2 BB

May 13th: 1 for 4

May 14th: 2 for 4, 1 BB

May 15th: 0 for 3

May 16th: 1 for 3, 1 2B, 1 BB

May 17th: 2 for 5

May 19th: 2 for 5, 1 2B

May 20th: 0 for 4

 

His numbers before the last 10 games: .321/.395/.412

His numbers now: .325/.401/.408

[Abe Frohman]

Theriot has ripped a couple doubles down the LF line in the past few games, if I am not mistaken.

 

I'm sure if he ends up the season with a batting average over .300, OB% over .350, 100+ runs scored, and 30-40 SB - the whole season will be labeled a fluke and Cedeno should still have been the starting SS.

 

I think Theriot is the type of player who is going to benefit from a rest here and there, and Cedeno is going to get his AB's. That is a pretty good combo for SS, the way things are going so far.

[nilodnayr]

It's certainly nice to see the increased patience and productivity this team has. Fans can't really tell why the change has occurred, but whatever the reasons are, I'm enjoying it.

 

He really hasn't shown any more power than previously, and his patience has increased slightly.

 

IsoD

2007=.060

2008=.076

 

BB%

2007=8.4%

2008=11.1%

 

IsoP

2007=.080

2008=.083

 

However, on the bright side of things, he was really killed in BABIP last season. Using a modified formula that takes into account all batted ball types he should have been at 329 last year but was only at 289. Conversely, even though his BABIP is 358 this year, hes actually earning it as his eBABIP is 353. Not only is his LD% high (24.5%) (16th highest in the league), but his GB% is really high (50.3%) (34th highest in the league), resulting in a really low FB% (25.2%) (10th lowest in the league). Fly balls get turned into outs. For a guy who doesnt have homerun power, FBs are a killer. Maybe Theriot has realized that in order to get on base he needs to put the ball on the ground.

 

His batted ball types are most likely going to regress some to the mean, but hes reached the point where LD% is over 50% credible, nearly reached the point where GB% is over 50% credible, and in 2 weeks will reach the point where FB% exceeds 50% credibiliity.

 

Additionally, hes a 90% contact rate guy, so theres no reason why he shouldn't have a BA around 300. Theriot's problem is that BA is such a variable stat and pretty much the only thing he really brings to the table. One year he can have a BA of 266 and be a huge drain on the team, the next he can have a BA of be 325 and be a contributor.

 

BLOT (or rather BLOB) he has below average skills outside of contact rate, which means that the only way he can be productive for a team is if he has a good BA and thats not something that can be very predictable.

[Amazing_Grace]

Theriot has no power. This is simply a physical fact, and obviously there's not much he can do about it (without cheating that is). In order for him to be valuable, he has to get on base. In order to get on base enough to make up for his lack of power, he needs to hit somewhere around .300 with a good IsoD to boot. You don't see that many players who can hit around .300 and draw a lot of walks with no power. The odds are against him. Still, it's not impossible. Guys like Rickey Henderson and Tony Gwynn never hit for much power but still kept their average good. Ichiro has a career SLG of just .434.

 

I know everyone hates this example, but I think Eckstein is a good one. His career SLG of .361 is just 11 pts higher than his career OBP. I think Theriot's realistic ceiling is something like that. Frankly, we could do and have done worse than Ryan Theriot at SS. There have been years when a .326 OBP would have looked quite acceptable and a .350 would have made us drool. It's not like Theriot has a huge contract. We're getting cheap production out of a position, and that's good.

 

I doubt Theriot is going to keep up hitting .329 (it's great if he does, but the odds are against it), but I doubt he's going to be an absolute black hole with a sub .300 OBP either, and let's be honest with ourselves, we all remember what that was like.

[wvcbxl]

I'm pretty sure it's Latin and he is referencing Julius Ceasar's remark to his best friend Brutus as Brutus literally and figureatively stabs him in the back.

 

Actually, since Ceasar was an aristocrat, he would probably have uttered those words in Greek.

(and yes, I know you were referring to the play)