The Anatomy of a Draft

[Mephistopheles]

I conducted my first real draft of the year this afternoon. Oh man did the mocking pay off. I got one beast of a team.

 

1-3) Hanley Ramirez, SS - Florida Marlins (#2 Meph Ranking)

 

When I saw that I had got the third pick I had my eyes set on drafting Albert Pujols third overall. I knew that one of my big four would fall to me. The big four being Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Ramirez and Johan Santana. I figured that I could pass on Santana and pick up Jake Peavy in the second round based on where he has been going. I figured Rodriguez and Ramirez would go 1-2, but the first pick of the draft was Pujols, by someone named St. Louis Saints. Rodriguez went number two, so I jumped on Hanley Ramirez thinking I would be able to squeeze by and hope to grab Derrek Lee in the fourth round.

 

2-22) Jake Peavy, SP - San Diego Padres (#9 Meph Ranking)

 

Jake Peavy fell to me (barely). He's the 19th rated player where the draft was, so it wasn't a slam dunk. There's a big difference between Peavy and Santana, but it's not nearly as large as the difference between Ramirez and whatever shortstop I would pick up later. However, after Peavy the pitchers fall off sharply.

 

3-27) Victor Martinez, C - Cleveland Indians (#8 Meph Ranking)

 

The steal of the early draft. Quite frankly people don't know how to rank players at positions of scarcity. Martinez is a huge pickup for me in the third round. As you can see, when you put his stats up against everyone else, he's really quite impressive. Out producing guys Ryan Howard, Miguel Cabrera and Jimmy Rollins - consensus first rounders. Oops.

 

4-46) Adam Dunn, OF - Cincinnati Reds (#61 Meph Ranking)

 

After the first three picks your draft ought to fit your team. You should have the entire draft scripted. With guys I was planning on picking up later, Dunn becomes ultravaluable to me as his batting average won't dent my overall batting average. In a perfect world this pick was reserved for Derrek Lee, but he went the pick right before me. Dirty Cubs fans.

 

5-51) Manny Ramirez, OF - Boston Red Sox (#50 Meph Ranking)

 

This pick was quite difficult for me. I took the entire 90 seconds to make my selection. I was debating between Ramirez, Corey Hart and Cole Hamels. I passed on Hamels hoping to pick up Halladay and Smoltz as with my later picks. I also thought there was a slim chance Hart would make it back to me in the sixth. I figure there's a good chance Manny has one big year left in him. The upside was just too great to pass up in the fifth round.

 

6-70) Corey Hart, OF - Milwaukee Brewers (#20 Meph Ranking)

 

Corey Hart's considerably undervalued right now. Your 25/25 outfielders who will score runs and drive them in without hurting your batting average in general are. I was surprised to see that Hart lasted to the 70th pick. My alternative here was Chris Young (OF). He'll hit for more power, but I didn't know if I was going to support his batting average AND Adam Dunn's.

 

7-75) Chipper Jones, 3B - Atlanta Braves (#46 Meph Ranking)

 

I was not intending on taking Chipper Jones at all, I had my scripted 3B as Mark Reynolds late. However, I decided that his BA was too good to pass up. This scripted pick was Roy Halladay or John Smoltz. Both guys were available, but pitchers were not flying off the board so I figured I could wait an extra round and nab Jones. Whatever power Jones adds is gravy. I drafted him to offset Dunn's batting average...which he'll do nicely.

 

8-94) John Smoltz, SP - Atlanta Braves (#18 Meph Ranking)

 

John Smoltz does not get enough credit as a fantasy pitcher because he hasn't racked up the wins the last three seasons, but he's a WHIP and ERA God. Drafting Smoltz's WHIP and ERA allows me to take guys with good ERAs later and rough WHIPS who will get some wins. Roy Halladay wasn't available at the slot, I was hoping to take both of them back to back.

 

9-99) Ian Kinsler, 2B - Texas Rangers (#44 Meph Ranking)

 

Ian Kinsler wasn't a guy I wanted, but I couldn't let him slide any further. I could take another hit on BA because I already had Dunn's offset. Kinsler is an average 2B, but 2B in the mid rounds are valuable as the drop off is quick...which is why he's ranked relatively high. Kinsler also could break out this year and hit .290 going 25/25.

 

10-118) Rich Hill, SP - Chicago Cubs (#54 Meph Ranking)

 

Hill is Smoltz lite. He won't have a great ERA, high 3.00s, but he's an above average strikeout pitcher and an above average WHIP pitcher. He'll ground those two categories allowing me to take someone like Tom Gorzelanny later, who won't have a great WHIP but a solid ERA. At this selection I figured I couldn't wait any longer to take my third starter. My lineup was filling up fast, I only had two positions open (1B and UTIL).

 

11-123) Matt Kemp, OF - Los Angeles Dodgers (#33 Meph Ranking)

 

That's not a typo. That's #33, ahead of Carlos Beltran, Carl Crawford, Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee. Like I said with respect to Corey Hart. They're similar players, their type is invaluable. It's MUCH more efficient to build your SBs in small amount with 20 or so steals at each position than taking a guy like Pierre, Reyes, Crawford or Figgins who all offer little else other than runs scored. In fact look at the two outfields:

 

Rocco Baldelli, Lastings Milledge and Matt Kemp

Carlos Beltran, Carl Crawford, and Alex Rios

 

Those bottom three are going in the 2nd or 3rd rounds at the latest. Kemp's going in the 11th round. Baldelli and Milledge are going undrafted.

 

By PECOTA

281.7 R, 62.3 HR, 249.3 RBI, 67.2 SB, .285 BA - {Beltran, Crawford, Rios}

269.5 R, 67.5 HR, 256.0 RBI, 61.9 SB, .284 BA - {Baldelli, Milledge, Kemp}

 

Obviously, the group of three top three round picks are better than the 10th round pick + 2 undrafted players, but by that much? Down in HR and RBI. Tied in BA and 12 runs above and 5 SBs above. Of course Rocco's health is a concern, but you can replace him with Felix Pie or Jeremy Hermida and achieve the same results. Just some thoughts.

 

12-142) Jacoby Ellsbury, OF - Boston Red Sox (#366 Meph Ranking)

 

This ticks me off. During the draft I agreed to trade this pick, Corey Hart and Jake Peavy for Johan Santana, Chris Young (OF), and his next pick. The jackass won't agree to the trade afterwards and I'm stuck with Ellsbury. He's got some trade value and I'll try to flip him for something. It really ticks me off. The guy I chose him to pick was Joakim Soria. He just wants to trade Soria for Ellsbury and won't accept the deal with Peavy and Hart like he said. Note to self: Kick his ass.

 

13-147) Todd Helton, 1B - Colorado Rockies (#72 Meph Ranking)

 

I love Todd Helton. When I selected Adam Dunn I fully expected to offset his BA with Helton. The two of them combine for some excellent production with no adverse consequences for my batting average. Once I selected a falling Chipper Jones I could afford a second hit to my batting average with Ian Kinsler. So Helton and Kemp offset that quite nicely. God I love picking to the team.

 

14-166) Eric Gagne, RP - Milwaukee Brewers (#117 Meph Ranking)

 

The Brewers didn't give him 10 million to setup. He'll get 30 saves if he's healthy, which is all I care about for my closers.

 

15-171) Ryan Zimmerman, 3B - Washington Nationals (#128 Meph Ranking)

 

I'm not kidding. He's ranked in Yahoo's top 100. I drafted him for trade value. If I can't dump him for an upgrade I'll keep him and look to see the offers for Jones. Remember, RFK is gone and Nationals Park appears to be league average offensively. That alone makes a huge difference for him (and of course Lastings Milledge).

 

16-190) Jim Thome, DH - Chicago White Sox (#87 Meph Ranking)

 

I'm not kidding. He's ranked in Yahoo's top 100. I drafted him to play. He's Adam Dunn lite. He's Dunn without the OF eligibility. Sure his BA sucks, but I won't play him and Dunn. I drafted him planning to dump Adam Dunn for an SP, I"m thinking Cole Hamels. For my team the difference between Thome's production and Dunn's is like .2 roto points. Dumping Dunn for Hamels more than makes up for that, don't you think?

 

17-195) Troy Percival, RP - Tampa Bay Rays (#182 Meph Ranking)

 

Saves.

 

18-214) Brian Wilson, RP - San Francisco Giants (#223 Meph Ranking)

 

Saves. I thought he was my fourth closer. So I though I had about 100 at the time.

 

19-219) Randy Johnson, SP - Arizona Diamondbacks (#108 Meph Ranking)

 

The systems like him if he can stay healthy. Big question, but couldn't pass up the risk. I mean if he's hurt big deal I can pick up someone like Tom Glavine and be fine with Peavy and Smoltz.

 

20-238) Barry Zito, SP - San Francisco Giants (#130 Meph Ranking)

 

Zito is tremendously undervalued right now. He's crapped out like he did in 2007 before and was fine afterwards. He's good for an ERA around four flat this year. He won't help you in your WHIP, but I have Peavy, Hill, Smoltz and Johnson who are all elite there...and...

 

21-243) Greg Maddux, SP - San Diego Padres (#144 Meph Ranking)

 

Maddux still provides great value in his WHIP. His ERA won't kill you, but given the rest of my staff he's fine.

 

So my team is this:

C: Victor Martinez

1B: Todd Helton

2B: Ian Kinsler

3B: Chipper Jones

SS: Hanley Ramirez

OF: Adam Dunn

OF: Manny Ramirez

OF: Corey Hart

UT: Matt Kemp

BN: Jim Thome

BN: Ryan Zimmerman

BN: Jacoby Ellsbury

 

SP1: Jake Peavy

SP2: John Smoltz

SP3: Rich Hill

SP4: Randy Johnson

SP5: Barry Zito

SP6: Greg Maddux

RP1: Eric Gagne

RP2: Troy Percival

RP3: Brian Wilson

 

I'll go to war with that team. Now the projected roto scores:

 

103 - PECOTA (Actual)

102.2 - PECOTA (Projected)

102 - James (Actual)

103.4 - James (Projected)

100 - ZiPS (Actual)

98.2 - ZiPS (Projected)

 

The fact that it's elite in all three systems means you don't simply choose one guy from one system who is tremendously undervalued because of an "odd" projection. That's why you use three and not one. Now that I have access to the fantasy depth charts on BP, I'll add them. The other three are based on my PT projections.

 

In case you're interested:

R/HR/RBI/SB/BA

874/221/830/130/.290 - PECOTA

886/237/836/141/.298 - James

876/221/857/117/.290 - ZiPS

 

W/SV/K/ERA/WHIP

82/94/1121/3.70/1.25 - PECOTA

88/85/1205/3.49/1.20 - James

88/90/1168/3.63/1.21 - ZiPS

 

Keep in mind these totals are elite for what they are, but likely fall below what is elite for actual scores at the end of the season, as projection systems are inherently conservative. However, any additional impact is usually going to be equal for each team and normally distributed, so these scores when compared to other scores via the same method work perfectly well and that error is not an issue, so keep that in mind.

 

Ill release the spreadsheet soon. I am going to add a few more teams to get the rankings more true. Since theyre mostly my drafts and Im a Fantasy God, "good" teams are too frequent (as im skewing the results).

 

I've got four trade offers sitting out there. Hopefully they'll be accepted:

1. Ryan Zimmerman, Greg Maddux for Roy Halladay

2. Adam Dunn for Cole Hamels

3. Ryan Zimmerman for Billy Wagner

4. Adam Dunn, Ryan Zimmerman for Matt Holliday

[Transmogrified Tiger]

That was a fun read, thanks.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Excellent read, Meph. I think you have constructed an excellent team. Keep us informed.

[Clem Fandango]

Is Matt Kemp slated to start over Andre Ethier for good?

 

Thanks for the post and nice draft by the way, that was a good read.

[Mephistopheles]

I have another draft this evening. I try to choose different players in most drafts, except pitching. Cept my big sleepers: namely Kemp.

 

I draft the same pitchers, if one goes down im fine. Im a god at spot starting, as you all found out in the NSBB/GRB league.

 

My plan

 

1 David Wright

2 Grady Sizemore

3 Russell Martin

4 Derrek Lee

5 Cole Hamels

6 Miguel Tejada

7 Jason Bay

8 Roy Halladay

9 Ben Sheets

10 Rich Hill

11 Matt Kemp

12 Jim Thome

13 Joakim Soria

14 Kelly Johnson

15 Eric Gagne

16 Troy Percival

17 Brian Wilson

18 Rich Harden

19 Rocco Baldelli

20 Tom Gorzelanny

21 Greg Maddux

 

99.1 rotopts.

[Butterscup1679666578]

Great read Meph. I've got another draft tonight also. I was wondering what the formula was for determining projected roto points? If you explained it elsewhere, I probably missed it, so just point me in the right direction. Thanks man.

[Mephistopheles]

im going to be live posting in this thread details of my draft i know youre all excited and wont be reading.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Meph,

 

Can you tell me how you think this team will do?

 

C Víctor Martínez

1B Derrek Lee

2B Ian Kinsler

3B Chipper Jones

SS Derek Jeter

OF Corey Hart

OF Chris Young

OF Matt Kemp

Util Kosuke Fukudome

 

SP Johan Santana

SP Rich Hill

RP Bob Howry

RP Brian Wilson

P Rich Harden

P Barry Zito

P Greg Maddux

 

BN Willy Taveras

BN Jeff Kent

BN Eric Chávez

BN Rocco Baldelli

BN George Sherrill

[Mephistopheles]

looks familiar....

 

ummm 80 pts. mainly because youre not outstanding on the mound. great era and whip but not enough counting stats. if youre active in the league you can certainly make that up without killing yourself on era and whip

[Mephistopheles]

I have the fourth pick in this draft. So.

 

1. Alex Rodriguez

2. Hanley Ramirez

3. Albert Pujols

4. David Wright

 

we'll see...

 

 

alright i got some shiner and some corn. im ready for this draft.

[Mephistopheles]

with the first pick of my draft, I select Albert Pujols. ARod, Hanley and Wright went 1 2 3.

with the second pick of the draft, someone fell. specifically ryan braun. nailed him

with the third pick of the draft, VMart was gone, but Carlos Beltran (not loved by my metrics) was available and i thought it would be a great risk to take. He hit .293 .372 .596 .967 the second half. He'll be fine. Steal IMO

 

1-4) Albert Pujols

2-21) Ryan Braun

3-28) Carlos Beltran

 

 

The fourth pick was a tough one. Aramis Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Derrek Lee and Troy Tulowitzki were all on the board. I didn't want to fill up my UTIL this early nor did I want to wait on SS's, so I took Tulo

 

4-45) Troy Tulowitzki

 

Hamels was gone but Ramirez and Lee were still out there. I figured Jesus Ill take Lee and trade Pujols for someone. Thank you.

 

5-52) Derrek Lee

 

The plan from now on is maybe an OF and then SP galore 7-10.

 

6-69) Joe Mauer

 

Couldn't pass on Mauer. Catching gets thin after this pick.

 

Now the 7th pick was tough. Corey Hart or Carlos Zambrano? I had one OF and no pitching. Ill let Hart fall one more round and work on my staff.

 

7-76) Carlos Zambrano

 

dammit Halladay went to choices later. smoltz is long gone.

[Mephistopheles]

Gah Corey Hart went the pick before mine in the 8th. I settled for Tim

 

8-93) Tim Lincecum

9-100) Jason Bay

 

Yeah Bay. Bounce back? Probably.

[Rob]

Gah Corey Hart went the pick before mine in the 8th. I settled for Tim

 

8-93) Tim Lincecum

9-100) Jason Bay

 

Yeah Bay. Bounce back? Probably.

 

Can't complain much about guys not falling to you after you get Braun in the 2nd.

[Mephistopheles]

Gah Corey Hart went the pick before mine in the 8th. I settled for Tim

 

8-93) Tim Lincecum

9-100) Jason Bay

 

Yeah Bay. Bounce back? Probably.

 

Can't complain much about guys not falling to you after you get Braun in the 2nd.

 

Sure I can!

 

 

NO KEMP WAS STOLEN FROM ME BASTARDS

 

 

so in the 10th round I went and nabbed Rickie Weeks.

 

10-117) Rickie Weeks

11-124) Daisuke Matszuka

 

Matsuzaka or Hill? Tough choice. Theyre identical according to my rankings. I went Hill in the other league, Ill minimize my risk and choose Matsuzaka

 

12-141) Brad Lidge

 

Saves

Edited February 19, 2008 by Mephistopheles

[Rob]

Damn, that's real early for Kemp...

[Mephistopheles]

not really thats about where hes going

 

I took capps

 

so my team is:

C Joe Mauer

1B Derrek Lee

2B Rickie Weeks

SS Troy Tulowitzki

3B/OF Ryan Braun

OF Jason Bay

OF Carlos Beltran

OF/3B ?

UT Albert Pujols (stay healthy dammit)

 

SP1 Carlos Zambrano

SP2 Tim Lincecum

SP3 Daisuke Matsuzaka

SP4 Rich Harden

RP1 Matt Capps

RP2 Brad Lidge

RP3 Joakim Soria

 

At this point Im going to throw some slop risks to fill up my final spot. Names considering: Rocco/Lastings, Glaus, Rolen among others. Ill take two of them and sit on it. Ill work on my Ps

 

now I took Soria

 

I didnt want to be beat to the punch on Harden again, so he's my 15th pick. early but ill live

 

BJ Ryan and Bronson Arroyo come down and join the team.

 

welcome to our party Randy Johnson, hope the back's fine. Troy Glaus youre the next contestant

[Mephistopheles]

The final tallies are in:

 

C: Joe Mauer

1B: Derrek Lee

2B: Rickie Weeks

SS: Troy Tulowitzki

3B: Ryan Braun

OF: Jason Bay

OF: Lastings Milledge

OF: Carlos Beltran

UT: Albert Pujols

BN: Troy Glaus

SP1: Carlos Zambrano

SP2: Tim Lincecum

SP3: Daisuke Matsuzaka

SP4: Bronson Arroyo

SP5: Rich Harden

SP6: Randy Johnson

RP1: Brad Lidge

RP2: Matt Capps

RP3: Joakim Soria

RP4: George Sherrill

RP5: BJ Ryan

 

Ryan on the shelf for now. Aaron Heilman would be picked up to lower my WHIP and ERA even more.

 

Now outstanding scores:

 

Predicted Scores (Total/Hitters/Pitchers)

106.7/54.3/52.4 - PECOTA

104.7/52.4/53.3 - James

94.6/42.8/51.8 - ZiPS

 

Actual Scores (based on the league)

111/58/53 - PECOTA

112/58/54 - James

98/46/52 - ZiPS

 

So that on average a 107.0 actual score and a 102.0 projected score.

 

Totals

Offense (R/HR/RBI/SB/BA)

893/228/820/132/.290 - PECOTA

910/248/844/129/.296 - James

850/230/803/110/.285 - ZiPS

 

Pitching (W/SV/K/ERA/WHIP)

88/122/1324/3.72/1.27 - PECOTA

93/121/1376/3.55/1.23 - James

95/121/1355/3.57/1.24 - ZiPS

 

Now, there is one person who is on both teams i have drafted, Randy Johnson. Both of these teams are elite, so it's not playing the system and grabbing one cheap guy to make you awesome the systems love. I can substitute in several of the FAs in Johnson's spot and stay above 100 easily.

[Rob]

Your pitching staff would make every trainer in the world cry.

[Mephistopheles]

and opposing hitters when theyre not being operated on.

 

i took harden, ryan and johnson in the last six rounds. the other SPs you get there arent any better than the SPs that go undrafted. Why not take a chance on them? if they dont make it then youre left dropping them for a pitcher of the same quality that you would have drafted in the first place. if they do make it, well then you have quite the steal.

 

reports are good on harden. unit? who knows. there are several quality SPs out there I could pick off the waiver wire:

 

Mark Buehrle

Ian Kennedy

Homer Bailey

Shaun Marcum (whip stud)

Dave Bush (whip stud)

Kevin Slowey (that defense behind him is going to be awesome)

Wandy Rodriguez (3:1 K:BB last season was more in line with his first half ERA. Could be a break out 08er)

Mike Mussina (one last hurrah is possible)

Ervin Santana (bounce back seemingly inevitable)

 

no greats but guys that wont kill me as spot starts which im legendary at

[Rob]

and opposing hitters when theyre not being operated on.

 

i took harden, ryan and johnson in the last six rounds. the other SPs you get there arent any better than the SPs that go undrafted. Why not take a chance on them? if they dont make it then youre left dropping them for a pitcher of the same quality that you would have drafted in the first place. if they do make it, well then you have quite the steal.

 

reports are good on harden. unit? who knows. there are several quality SPs out there I could pick off the waiver wire:

 

Mark Buehrle

Ian Kennedy

Homer Bailey

Shaun Marcum (whip stud)

Dave Bush (whip stud)

Kevin Slowey (that defense behind him is going to be awesome)

Wandy Rodriguez (3:1 K:BB last season was more in line with his first half ERA. Could be a break out 08er)

Mike Mussina (one last hurrah is possible)

Ervin Santana (bounce back seemingly inevitable)

 

no greats but guys that wont kill me as spot starts which im legendary at

 

Oh, I'm not debating the method. I've always been the guy who cobbles together a pitching staff in the late rounds and off the waiver wire. (I'm lucky in that only 2-3 others in my league have any grasp on prospects). It's just rare that you see a staff where every single starter has big, big question marks about their health.

 

Z - wear and tear

Lincecum - funky delivery

Daisuke - admitted he was tired at the end of last season

Harden - duh

Johnson - duh

Arroyo - workload

[Mephistopheles]

you can make the same comments for the first three on just about any pitcher.

[Rob]

you can make the same comments for the first three on just about any pitcher.

 

True. But there's no doubt that those three fall into the extremes of those categories.

 

Myself, I'm loving the Gallardo injury right now... should cause his draft stock to slip a bit, which might allow me to grab him later on in the draft.