Cubs Projection Thread

[rawaction]

I predict these predictions are unpredictably predictable.

 

Lee: .341/.435/.511

DeRosa .271/.364/.430

Theriot .275/.315/.312

Ramirez: .300/.370/.580

Soriano .281/.330/.570

Pie .270/.330/.457

Fukodome .290/.390/.450

Soto .295/.340/.469

 

Zambrano 1.20/3.40

Lilly 1.42/4.33

Hill 1.24/3.60

Marquis 1.60/5.91

Dempster 1.55/5.67

Lieber 1.40/4.55

 

Marmol 1.05/ 1.96 (hits the DL early)

Howry 1.20/3.50

Wood 1.35/3.50

 

 

Your hitting is quite optimistic.

 

Those aren't career years from any of those players scratch maybe ARam and I HAVE to predict a good year from Soto. I just have to. I do think the hitting will be much better this year, and that the pitching over preformed last year save Zambrano. Optimistic sure...but not overly so. EDIT: maybe I have Pie, ARam and Lee's OBP too high.

 

Lee would have a career year in BA and OBP, and far better than anything other than his 2005 season. Ramirez and Soriano would have career highs in SLG. Pie would hit for more power than Lee (ISOP).

[mcgoobs]

Lee: .288/.370/.490

DeRosa: .282/.345/.431

Theriot: .301/.351/.389

Ramirez: .310/.358/.535

Soriano: .262/.302/.494

Pie: .235/.278/.456

Fukodome: .298/.360/.476

Soto: .276/.327/.439

 

Zambrano 1.31/4.21

Lilly: 1.25/4.10

Hill: 1.09/3.14

Marquis: 1.63/6.10 (and benched)

Dempster: 1.43/5.01

Lieber: 1.32/4.57

 

Marmol: .98/2.34

Howry: 1.23/3.89

Wood: 1.14/3.31

[TheGrinch]

I predict these predictions are unpredictably predictable.

 

Lee: .341/.435/.511

DeRosa .271/.364/.430

Theriot .275/.315/.312

Ramirez: .300/.370/.580

Soriano .281/.330/.570

Pie .270/.330/.457

Fukodome .290/.390/.450

Soto .295/.340/.469

 

Zambrano 1.20/3.40

Lilly 1.42/4.33

Hill 1.24/3.60

Marquis 1.60/5.91

Dempster 1.55/5.67

Lieber 1.40/4.55

 

Marmol 1.05/ 1.96 (hits the DL early)

Howry 1.20/3.50

Wood 1.35/3.50

 

 

Your hitting is quite optimistic.

 

Those aren't career years from any of those players scratch maybe ARam and I HAVE to predict a good year from Soto. I just have to. I do think the hitting will be much better this year, and that the pitching over preformed last year save Zambrano. Optimistic sure...but not overly so. EDIT: maybe I have Pie, ARam and Lee's OBP too high.

 

Lee would have a career year in BA and OBP, and far better than anything other than his 2005 season. Ramirez and Soriano would have career highs in SLG. Pie would hit for more power than Lee (ISOP).

 

That's right. Mark it down. I guess I could have put three year splits for every player, but that wouldn't be any fun, would it? As far as ISOP...Lee and Pie's ISOP the last three years have been eerily similar. Sure, Lee's slg% was low, but like I said, I wanted to spice up my predictions. I think his wrist is going to hamper his power for the rest of his career and I ran with it. Also...thanks for reminding me that Lee's 2005 season was in fact a year that is included in his career.

[Dr. Cub]

308/398/560 D. Lee

269/340/410 M. Derosa

291/349/548 A. Ramirez

277/327/530 A. Soriano

275/320/418 G. Soto

268/305/362 R. Theriot

259/310/406 F. Pie

284/373/438 K. Fukudome

 

3.88/1.30 C. Zambrano

4.02/1.40 T. Lilly

3.91/1.28 R. Hill

5.05/1.58 J. Marquis

4.71/1.44 J. Lieber

 

3.40/1.31 K. Wood

3.27/1.28 B. Howry

2.91/1.10 C. Marmol

4.79/1.48 R. Dempster

 

The offense will continue to be offensive.

[series65cubsfan]

I'm somewhat surprised that so many of y'all expect Hill to pitch better than the Big Z.(as far as era and whips can project) Do you think that he should be our 2nd or 1st starter? Not that it makes that much of a difference what position in the rotation you pitch in, (from what I believe and what I've gathered from NSBB) but nonetheless (sp) the question stands. Do y'all think that he is our ace or 2nd? Or do think we are hoping he will be?

 

I'm not being facetious. I'm glad this thread came up because it shows our individual preferences for the said players. I just want to know why. Maybe this should be a separate thread. Mods, please move if you feel necessary. Meph, I'm surprised at your belief in Cedeno. As I sort through the data, I'm sure I may see thing I would like the authors to explain. I don't really understand advanced metrics well, though I'd love to learn.

[Mephistopheles]

rich hill will be better when they're physically throwing baseballs to hitter, but zambrano will be the better player considering he's not clueless at the plate like hill is ala him being better than carpenter in 05

[17 Seconds]

.269/.324/.495 alfonso soriano

.254/.310/.325 ryan theriot

.275/.375/.475 derrek lee

.275/.345/.495 aramis ramirez

.267/.348/.436 kosuke fukudome

.254/.333/.427 mark derosa

.245/.305/.411 geovany soto

.323/.365/.534 felix pie

.321/.345/.465 ronny cedeno

 

4.73 zambrano

4.54 lilly

5.43 marquis

5.69 lieber

5.83 gallagher

4.65 marshall

3.12 hill

 

1.59 wood

4.23 marmol

4.31 demp

3.21 howry

2.93 warts

 

Ridiculous.

[Mephistopheles]

Good observation son.

[TruffleShuffle]

rich hill will be better when they're physically throwing baseballs to hitter, but zambrano will be the better player considering he's not clueless at the plate like hill is ala him being better than carpenter in 05

 

zambrano is also less likely to trip over his own feet while fielding a bunt.

 

i will do my projections a little later. my pie projection will not be pretty.

[17 Seconds]

Good observation son.

 

Your other ones were poor as well.

[Vanilla Ice]

I'll be really positive. (just to offset the pessimists)

 

Lee: .327/.415/.550

 

Sign me up

[Sarcastic]

.269/.324/.495 alfonso soriano

.254/.310/.325 ryan theriot

.275/.375/.475 derrek lee

.275/.345/.495 aramis ramirez

.267/.348/.436 kosuke fukudome

.254/.333/.427 mark derosa

.245/.305/.411 geovany soto

.323/.365/.534 felix pie

.321/.345/.465 ronny cedeno

 

4.73 zambrano

4.54 lilly

5.43 marquis

5.69 lieber

5.83 gallagher

4.65 marshall

3.12 hill

 

1.59 wood

4.23 marmol

4.31 demp

3.21 howry

2.93 warts

 

Ridiculous.

 

If this was a witty commentary on Meph's tendency to reply to posts with one word dismissals, good job. If not, please make a point.

[17 Seconds]

.269/.324/.495 alfonso soriano

.254/.310/.325 ryan theriot

.275/.375/.475 derrek lee

.275/.345/.495 aramis ramirez

.267/.348/.436 kosuke fukudome

.254/.333/.427 mark derosa

.245/.305/.411 geovany soto

.323/.365/.534 felix pie

.321/.345/.465 ronny cedeno

 

4.73 zambrano

4.54 lilly

5.43 marquis

5.69 lieber

5.83 gallagher

4.65 marshall

3.12 hill

 

1.59 wood

4.23 marmol

4.31 demp

3.21 howry

2.93 warts

 

Ridiculous.

 

If this was a witty commentary on Meph's tendency to reply to posts with one word dismissals, good job. If not, please make a point.

 

My point? The predictions were so ludicrous that I didn't want to spend 10 minutes explaing how bad they were. I now realize that the post was a joke and he wasn't serious.

[seanimal]

people who intentionally skew data sets make me both:

 

a)swell in intense hatred and

b)giggle like a school girl.

 

I'm really interested to see what the results are if/when this pans out.

[TerraceReserved]

people who intentionally skew data sets make me both:

 

a)swell in intense hatred and

b)giggle like a school girl.

 

I'm really interested to see what the results are if/when this pans out.

 

In a day or two I'll put up a google spreadsheet with all the projections. But right now we're only sitting at 13 of 'em, and for these to mean anything there's gonna need to be more than that. So more projections are defintely welcome.

[Rob]

Soriano - .280/.325/.540

Theriot - .265/.315/.355

Lee - .295/.390/.525

Ramirez - .305/.355/.550

Fukudome - .305/.390/.465

DeRosa - .280/.360/.430

Soto - .280/.350/.455

Pie - .270/.320/.460

 

Zambrano - 1.30/4.20

Lilly - 1.20/4.30

Hill - 1.10/3.65

Marquis - 1.45/4.80

Dempster - 1.30/3.60 (all in relief)

Lieber - 1.30/4.50

 

Marmol - 1.15/3.10

Wood - 1.20/3.40

Howry - 1.20/3.30

[TruffleShuffle]

Soriano - .288/.335/.565

Theriot - .275/.330/.352

Lee - .290/.378/.495

Ramirez - .315/.368/.562

Fukudome - .283/.370/.475

DeRosa - .276/.347/.418

Soto - .258/.323/.434

Pie - .245/.292/.403

 

Zambrano - 1.26/3.72

Hill - 1.17/3.47

Lilly - 1.27/3.95

Marquis - 1.42/4.87

Dempster - 1.41/4.42

Lieber - 1.48/5.21

 

Marmol - 1.02/2.34

Wood - 1.22/3.14

Howry - 1.12/2.92

[imb]

how does this work if we aren't giving out ab totals or IP totals? Averaging averages?

[RynoRules]

Soriano - .288/.335/.565

Theriot - .275/.330/.352

Lee - .290/.378/.495

Ramirez - .315/.368/.562

Fukudome - .283/.370/.475

DeRosa - .276/.347/.418

Soto - .258/.323/.434

Pie - .245/.292/.403

 

Zambrano - 1.26/3.72

Hill - 1.17/3.47

Lilly - 1.27/3.95

Marquis - 1.42/4.87

Dempster - 1.41/4.42

Lieber - 1.48/5.21

 

Marmol - 1.02/2.34

Wood - 1.22/3.14

Howry - 1.12/2.92

 

I agree with almost all of the above, though I think you were a bit harsh on Felix. I see him with a .320 OBP on the strength of .280-85 BA.

[TerraceReserved]

how does this work if we aren't giving out ab totals or IP totals? Averaging averages?

 

Yep. Using OBP and SLG and projected playing time, it's pretty easy to convert to runs.

[imb]

how does this work if we aren't giving out ab totals or IP totals? Averaging averages?

 

Yep. Using OBP and SLG and projected playing time, it's pretty easy to convert to runs.

 

Oh, I gotcha. You're going to average the averages and then just plug them in to the estimated PT.

[TerraceReserved]

Heres a spreadsheet with all the projections averaged out so far.

 

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pyk99ZuXWKqdQVRM4fba4Iw&hl=en

 

And for those who haven't posted projections yet: It only takes 5 or 10 minutes to make your projections, and to make the final numbers be representative of Cubs fans there's got to be some more posted.

 

and thanks again to those who already have participated and those that will.

[JimSorgi]

Soriano - .284/.329/.570

Theriot - .255/.310/.341

Lee - .304/.387/.498

Ramirez - .310/.376/.579

Fukudome - .283/.391/.460

DeRosa - .284/.353/.423

Soto - .281/.344/.445

Pie - .276/.322/.401

 

Zambrano - 1.34/3.83

Hill - 1.10/3.32

Lilly - 1.24/3.91

Marquis - 1.50/5.05

Dempster - 1.46/4.82

Lieber - 1.43/4.61

 

Marmol - 1.05/2.23

Wood - 1.17/2.87

Howry - 1.22/3.21

Edited February 13, 2008 by JimSorgi

[Mephistopheles]

.269/.324/.495 alfonso soriano

.254/.310/.325 ryan theriot

.275/.375/.475 derrek lee

.275/.345/.495 aramis ramirez

.267/.348/.436 kosuke fukudome

.254/.333/.427 mark derosa

.245/.305/.411 geovany soto

.323/.365/.534 felix pie

.321/.345/.465 ronny cedeno

 

4.73 zambrano

4.54 lilly

5.43 marquis

5.69 lieber

5.83 gallagher

4.65 marshall

3.12 hill

 

1.59 wood

4.23 marmol

4.31 demp

3.21 howry

2.93 warts

 

why werent these included dammit

[Rob]

Heres a spreadsheet with all the projections averaged out so far.

 

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pyk99ZuXWKqdQVRM4fba4Iw&hl=en

 

And for those who haven't posted projections yet: It only takes 5 or 10 minutes to make your projections, and to make the final numbers be representative of Cubs fans there's got to be some more posted.

 

and thanks again to those who already have participated and those that will.

 

One of your Marquis projections is flipped (unless somebody is really calling for a WHIP over 5).

 

All in all, I've come pretty darn close on a majority of the predictions.