Geovany Soto: PCL MVP

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm pretty sure that Soto would throw out more than 5% of baserunners, though.

Not to pick on you, Tim, but this gets brought up a lot when talking about Kendall. Nobody seemed to care when Barrett was on the team and couldn't throw anyone out or call a good game. Back then, the majority of the board seemed to think, "Who cares about the defense, his offense is well above-average." Now, with Kendall exceeding expectations with the bat, his defense gets brought up as a reason to bench him. Don't really understand it

 

There wasn't a good defensive catcher winning the AAA MVP with a dominate offensive season when Barrett played here. There was no alternative, starting Blanco everyday wasn't an option.

 

There's also the relative awfulness of the defense we're talking about. People got pissed at Barrett because he made the occasional dumb decision and didn't throw out a lot of basestealers(~20% overall as a Cub). Kendall for whatever reason is physically incapable of throwing out many basestealers, and that knowledge has a tangible effect. Barrett had his worst season of his career throwing out baserunners, and caught 16% of 39 attempts in 52 starts. Kendall has started 32 games, and has caught 7% of 43 baserunners. We're giving away baserunners into scoring position more than once a game with almost no chance of throwing them out. And when you consider that Kendall is far from a guarantee to be even a positive offensive player going forward, and we have a guy known as a defensive catcher putting up a 1.000+ OPS in AAA, there's really no question about the decision.

[tinkerstoeverstochance]

I just want him to get a chance in Sept to catch a couple three days in a row, and have him as our #2 and put hank on the 60 day:D

 

and next year I want him to be our #1 with JK(if the price is right)#2 pipe dream maybe

[Guest]

I'm pretty sure that Soto would throw out more than 5% of baserunners, though.

Not to pick on you, Tim, but this gets brought up a lot when talking about Kendall. Nobody seemed to care when Barrett was on the team and couldn't throw anyone out or call a good game. Back then, the majority of the board seemed to think, "Who cares about the defense, his offense is well above-average." Now, with Kendall exceeding expectations with the bat, his defense gets brought up as a reason to bench him. Don't really understand it

 

There wasn't a good defensive catcher winning the AAA MVP with a dominate offensive season when Barrett played here. There was no alternative, starting Blanco everyday wasn't an option.

 

There's also the relative awfulness of the defense we're talking about. People got pissed at Barrett because he made the occasional dumb decision and didn't throw out a lot of basestealers(~20% overall as a Cub). Kendall for whatever reason is physically incapable of throwing out many basestealers, and that knowledge has a tangible effect. Barrett had his worst season of his career throwing out baserunners, and caught 16% of 39 attempts in 52 starts. Kendall has started 32 games, and has caught 7% of 43 baserunners. We're giving away baserunners into scoring position more than once a game with almost no chance of throwing them out. And when you consider that Kendall is far from a guarantee to be even a positive offensive player going forward, and we have a guy known as a defensive catcher putting up a 1.000+ OPS in AAA, there's really no question about the decision.

Thanks...I really don't have much to add to this as it expressed the thought just about perfectly.

[badnews]

Why is everyone so high on Soto? Haven't we been here before? A guy hits poorly up until Iowa, then he hits like a fiend. Ronny Cedeno, circa 2005?

 

I'd be quite reluctant to just hand Soto the starting job. If he tanks, what then?

 

We saw Cedeno look like a slugger at Iowa, and a lot of guys hit well in Iowa. Heck, Buck Coats hit well in Iowa, Buck Coats is no major leaguer.

 

What worries me the most is the strikeouts - 25% of his ABs. His BABIP is somewhere around .425. That's just preposterously high. It's not going to hold up.

 

What do people expect from Soto in the majors? I think he could be solid, but I'm hesitant to commit beyond that. I don't think he'll be a complete bust, then again, I thought Murton and Cedeno would do better than they have. Anyone see a Miguel Olivo type of guy? Not bad by any means, but not particularly exciting?

[Brian]

I don't think anybody expects Geovony to be anywhere near what he put up this year at AAA. The main thing is, Hendry and the Cubs made no effort to Capitalize on his hot bat at all. For pretty much the entire year catcher was a black hole, and all Soto got was 7 AB. It seem very likely that Soto would have played better defense and had better offense than pretty much anybody that played at the catcher for the Cubs this year outside of Kendall's offense after his slow start with the Cubs.

 

I'm wary of giving Soto the starers job, and Soto/Blanco tandem doesn't exactly exude much confidence either.

[TruffleShuffle]

Anyone see a Miguel Olivo type of guy? Not bad by any means, but not particularly exciting?

 

Miguel Olivo is bad. His career OBP is .274. Soto has walked 53 times in 110 games with Iowa; Olivo has walked a grand total of 66 times in 539 major league games. Not good.

[badnews]

Then what comparable do you favor? I mean, it's fine to not like what I suggested. But please offer up something else then. Olivo did walk more in the minors. I don't think a guy like Kelly Shoppach works. Shoppach was a consistent power hitter and did it in a tougher hitting league.

[UBlink]

So ignore the numbers and just look at his relative performance compared to the rest of the PCL (as of 8-30, doesn't include last night's 3-5 HR):

 

2nd in AVG

3rd in OBP

1st in SLG (by 33 points)

1st in OPS (by 47 points)

 

Assuming AAA is the training ground for MLB, being better than everybody else in the PCL is impressive regardless of how much a hitters' league it is.

[badnews]

Yeah, but Ronny Cedeno was a top hitter in the PCL in 2005, and as guys like Jason Dubois and Dallas Mac have shown, PCL numbers don't mean much in the majors if you don't make contact.

[CubinNY]

Yeah, but Ronny Cedeno was a top hitter in the PCL in 2005, and as guys like Jason Dubois and Dallas Mac have shown, PCL numbers don't mean much in the majors if you don't make contact.

First Cedeno is 24. Second, he had a decent year at AA the year before. He also was the MVP of the Winter League he played in. Third, he was not a "top hitter" in the PCL.

 

The Cubs seem to have no idea how to develop a player. The problem with Cubs is that their offense is so bad that they need every position to contribute substantially. In other words, Ronny's troubles at the plate are magnified by the overall badness of the Cubs.

[Guest]

Yeah, but Ronny Cedeno was a top hitter in the PCL in 2005, and as guys like Jason Dubois and Dallas Mac have shown, PCL numbers don't mean much in the majors if you don't make contact.

You or others have brought up Dallas a couple times recently. K's were certainly a problem for him (and his protoge, Brandon Wood), but the thing that killed his performance and knocked him out of the bigs is most certainly injuries. Bad comparison.

[Tomarken]

Anyone see a Miguel Olivo type of guy? Not bad by any means, but not particularly exciting?

 

Miguel Olivo is bad. His career OBP is .274. Soto has walked 53 times in 110 games with Iowa; Olivo has walked a grand total of 66 times in 539 major league games. Not good.

 

Yep. Soto has always had a solid OBP in the minors, every single year. Players like that project better for success in the Majors than Miguel Olivo. I know R'sBI is not a stat to hitch your wagon to (thanks FJM), but he did have 109 R'sBI in 109 games, that's kind of awesome in my book. If he can be the defensive catcher he has been all through his minor league career and turn in .350+ OBP in the majors, he will be an asset to the Major League Cubs. I mean, he has to hit for more power than Kendall, right?

 

EDIT: 110 games? when did that happen? bum