It's time for me to give credit to Hendry for the offseason.

[TruffleShuffle]

for what it's worth i also said it wasn't bad. i said it was useless and overkill. if we're going to upgrade spend the extra few million and do it right. the expected difference between theriot and derosa was about 10 runs. the expected difference between derosa and durham was about 20 runs. the upgrade from derosa to durham wasnt expensive. ss was the big glaring hole and we did nothing to close it. not one damn thing.

 

key words in that post... also "expected difference" probably assumed DeRosa will fall back to career norms, and I think that scouting at least help diagnose whether or not that is likely to happen[/b]

[mspcanes1]

for what it's worth i also said it wasn't bad. i said it was useless and overkill. if we're going to upgrade spend the extra few million and do it right. the expected difference between theriot and derosa was about 10 runs. the expected difference between derosa and durham was about 20 runs. the upgrade from derosa to durham wasnt expensive. ss was the big glaring hole and we did nothing to close it. not one damn thing.

 

well your kind of being narrow in that assumption. Derosa wasn't simply a value at the time for his offense at 2B, he was also valuable for being able to backup at multiple positions, and do it well I might add.

 

i agree. he made aramis' injury earlier this year palatable. in fact he's probably better than aramis is at that mosition defensively. theriot filled in at third and looked like dog poop. we would of had an issue at the hot corner if not for mark

[imb]

I dont have a problem with the Lilly or DeRosa signings, but I have a feeling that Marquis and Soriano are going to eventually make this a disastrous offseason.

[Mephistopheles]

for what it's worth i also said it wasn't bad. i said it was useless and overkill. if we're going to upgrade spend the extra few million and do it right. the expected difference between theriot and derosa was about 10 runs. the expected difference between derosa and durham was about 20 runs. the upgrade from derosa to durham wasnt expensive. ss was the big glaring hole and we did nothing to close it. not one damn thing.

 

key words in that post... also "expected difference" probably assumed DeRosa will fall back to career norms, and I think that scouting at least help diagnose whether or not that is likely to happen[/b]

 

 

yes scouting....the only business in the world where there's no accountability..no offense UK.

[Guest]

 

injury risk?

 

Care to acknowledge a point against you for once?

[Mephistopheles]

for what it's worth i also said it wasn't bad. i said it was useless and overkill. if we're going to upgrade spend the extra few million and do it right. the expected difference between theriot and derosa was about 10 runs. the expected difference between derosa and durham was about 20 runs. the upgrade from derosa to durham wasnt expensive. ss was the big glaring hole and we did nothing to close it. not one damn thing.

 

well your kind of being narrow in that assumption. Derosa wasn't simply a value at the time for his offense at 2B, he was also valuable for being able to backup at multiple positions, and do it well I might add.

 

i agree. he made aramis' injury earlier this year palatable. in fact he's probably better than aramis is at that mosition defensively. theriot filled in at third and looked like dog poop. we would of had an issue at the hot corner if not for mark

 

aramis missed 15 games. the run value of his versatility there over say scott moore isn't going to be that high.

[Bruce Miles]

Interesting discussion. Back on what I believe is the topic (Hendry's off-season), these were his top priorities, as I've been able to glean over the last few months and recently:

 

Hire Piniella as manager (failing that, hire Bochy)

Sign Soriano

Sign Lilly

Sign DeRosa (who was valued over Durham)

 

The Cubs always liked Cliff Floyd, so his signing seemed inevitable.

 

What about Marquis? The Cubs made a run at Gil Meche at the winter meetings but couldn't sign him. They went until almost Christmas before signing Marquis, who came on the recommendation of Greg Maddux and who had worked with Rothschild in Florida. (When I mentioned to Maddux after one spring-training game that Marquis was having a good spring, he replied, "Well, he SHOULD.")

 

Would Meche have been a better signing? I don't know. The Cubs were one-half of the equation in that scenario, and Meche chose the Royals.

Edited July 15, 2007 by Bruce Miles

[Jazz]

for what it's worth i also said it wasn't bad. i said it was useless and overkill. if we're going to upgrade spend the extra few million and do it right. the expected difference between theriot and derosa was about 10 runs. the expected difference between derosa and durham was about 20 runs. the upgrade from derosa to durham wasnt expensive. ss was the big glaring hole and we did nothing to close it. not one damn thing.

 

well your kind of being narrow in that assumption. Derosa wasn't simply a value at the time for his offense at 2B, he was also valuable for being able to backup at multiple positions, and do it well I might add.

yeah and those few outings don't amount to much. not even close to 20 runs. no where close.

 

few outings? in his career, derosa has had the following experience

 

Total as 1B 41.0 IP

Total as 2B 1204.0 IP

Total as 3B 1312.1 IP

Total as SS 829.2 IP

Total as LF 79.0 IP

Total as RF 787.2 IP

[TruffleShuffle]

I dont have a problem with the Lilly or DeRosa signings, but I have a feeling that Marquis and Soriano are going to eventually make this a disastrous offseason.

 

i don't see how marquis would make it disastrous, since after this year he'll only have two years left on his contract, and the cubs may not even be able to spend much toward next year due to ownership issues. Plus if there's a guy they really want to get in the 2008-09 offseason, they can probably defer some of Marquis' money or backload a contract offer to a free agent.

 

Soriano's contract could certainly become an albatross down the road, however.

[Mephistopheles]

 

injury risk?

 

Care to acknowledge a point against you for once?

 

Yes! I was waiting for someone to say that. I agree that it is there. Now if he misses exactly half the season and the other half we let Theriot play. Using just projected EqA.

 

RART (Runs Above Ryan Theriot)

42.7 470 out season by Durham

34.2 235 outs by Durham + 235 outs by Theriot

8.3 470 out season by DeRosa

 

Of course there is defense.

[Keener98]

 

injury risk?

 

Care to acknowledge a point against you for once?

 

LOL doesnt seem like he does Tim, but be careful, you dont want to wake the sleeping giant.

[mspcanes1]

for what it's worth i also said it wasn't bad. i said it was useless and overkill. if we're going to upgrade spend the extra few million and do it right. the expected difference between theriot and derosa was about 10 runs. the expected difference between derosa and durham was about 20 runs. the upgrade from derosa to durham wasnt expensive. ss was the big glaring hole and we did nothing to close it. not one damn thing.

 

well your kind of being narrow in that assumption. Derosa wasn't simply a value at the time for his offense at 2B, he was also valuable for being able to backup at multiple positions, and do it well I might add.

 

i agree. he made aramis' injury earlier this year palatable. in fact he's probably better than aramis is at that mosition defensively. theriot filled in at third and looked like dog poop. we would of had an issue at the hot corner if not for mark

 

aramis missed 15 games. the run value of his versatility there over say scott moore isn't going to be that high.

 

i believe theriot had 2 errors at 3b one game because dero couldn't play that led to two runs...does that not count because it wasn't created offensively at the plate?

[TruffleShuffle]

Would Meche have been a better signing? I don't know. The Cubs were one-half of the equation in that scenario, and Meche chose the Royals.

 

If the Cubs were going to sign one - Marquis for 3 years, $21M or Meche for 5 years, $55M - I'd take Marquis easily. The contract is shorter and for less money, Meche has had arm trouble before, and his ERA+ hadn't been above league average in four years. Nothing in his secondary stats was particularly promising either. He's certainly had a good first half, but I'm not sold on him.

[Mephistopheles]

for what it's worth i also said it wasn't bad. i said it was useless and overkill. if we're going to upgrade spend the extra few million and do it right. the expected difference between theriot and derosa was about 10 runs. the expected difference between derosa and durham was about 20 runs. the upgrade from derosa to durham wasnt expensive. ss was the big glaring hole and we did nothing to close it. not one damn thing.

 

well your kind of being narrow in that assumption. Derosa wasn't simply a value at the time for his offense at 2B, he was also valuable for being able to backup at multiple positions, and do it well I might add.

yeah and those few outings don't amount to much. not even close to 20 runs. no where close.

 

few outings? in his career, derosa has had the following experience

 

Total as 1B 41.0 IP

Total as 2B 1204.0 IP

Total as 3B 1312.1 IP

Total as SS 829.2 IP

Total as LF 79.0 IP

Total as RF 787.2 IP

 

i was talking about in one individual season

[CubColtPacer]

I dont have a problem with the Lilly or DeRosa signings, but I have a feeling that Marquis and Soriano are going to eventually make this a disastrous offseason.

 

i don't see how marquis would make it disastrous, since after this year he'll only have two years left on his contract, and the cubs may not even be able to spend much toward next year due to ownership issues. Plus if there's a guy they really want to get in the 2008-09 offseason, they can probably defer some of Marquis' money or backload a contract offer to a free agent.

 

Soriano's contract could certainly become an albatross down the road, however.

 

Plus it will be hard to classify Marquis as a disastrous move when he still has a chance to be one of the better values of the offseason:

 

San Francisco-Zito

L.A. Dodgers-Schmidt

Seattle-Batista, Weaver

Phillies-Eaton

Yankees-Igawa

Cardinals-Mulder

Rangers-Padilla

Astros-Woody Williams

 

Even if Marquis regresses over the next 2 1/2 years (not to 2006 levels but to bad levels) he probably still will have been better value than all those pitchers signed to similar or bigger contracts than Marquis in 2006.

 

It could certainly turn out to be a bad move, but probably not awful or disastrous when you compare it to moves that other clubs made.

[Mephistopheles]

marquis is a signing that should not have been made. hes not really an upgrade over say marmol in the rotation. Edited July 15, 2007 by Mephistopheles

[TruffleShuffle]

I dont have a problem with the Lilly or DeRosa signings, but I have a feeling that Marquis and Soriano are going to eventually make this a disastrous offseason.

 

i don't see how marquis would make it disastrous, since after this year he'll only have two years left on his contract, and the cubs may not even be able to spend much toward next year due to ownership issues. Plus if there's a guy they really want to get in the 2008-09 offseason, they can probably defer some of Marquis' money or backload a contract offer to a free agent.

 

Soriano's contract could certainly become an albatross down the road, however.

 

Plus it will be hard to classify Marquis as a disastrous move when he still has a chance to be one of the better values of the offseason:

 

San Francisco-Zito

L.A. Dodgers-Schmidt

Seattle-Batista, Weaver

Phillies-Eaton

Yankees-Igawa

Cardinals-Mulder

Rangers-Padilla

Astros-Woody Williams

 

Even if Marquis regresses over the next 2 1/2 years (not to 2006 levels but to bad levels) he probably still will have been better value than all those pitchers signed to similar or bigger contracts than Marquis in 2006.

 

It could certainly turn out to be a bad move, but probably not awful or disastrous when you compare it to moves that other clubs made.

 

true - there were a lot of guys (especially Schmidt) that many on this board were clamoring for, and most of them have been outright disasters. I wanted nothing to do with Schmidt (too many PAPs the past few years) but I was in favor of either Randy Wolf or Padilla. Wolf has been average, and Padilla has been a train wreck.

[Jazz]

for what it's worth i also said it wasn't bad. i said it was useless and overkill. if we're going to upgrade spend the extra few million and do it right. the expected difference between theriot and derosa was about 10 runs. the expected difference between derosa and durham was about 20 runs. the upgrade from derosa to durham wasnt expensive. ss was the big glaring hole and we did nothing to close it. not one damn thing.

 

well your kind of being narrow in that assumption. Derosa wasn't simply a value at the time for his offense at 2B, he was also valuable for being able to backup at multiple positions, and do it well I might add.

yeah and those few outings don't amount to much. not even close to 20 runs. no where close.

 

few outings? in his career, derosa has had the following experience

 

Total as 1B 41.0 IP

Total as 2B 1204.0 IP

Total as 3B 1312.1 IP

Total as SS 829.2 IP

Total as LF 79.0 IP

Total as RF 787.2 IP

 

i was talking about in one individual season

 

Ok, but his value as being defensively versatile is still backed up by his innings logged at all these positions. Just because he was stagnant at one position last year doesn't mean his defensive prowess would have been discounted by hendry, and obviously it has shown up this year.

[TruffleShuffle]

marquis is a signing that should have been made. hes not really an upgrade over say marmol in the rotation.

 

depends on your assessment of Marmol. I've thought for at least a year now that Marmol's repertoire was better suited for the bullpen, so I'd have put him there coming into this year. The alternates for the rotation would've been (for me) Guzman and Gallagher.

[mspcanes1]

marquis is a signing that should have been made. hes not really an upgrade over say marmol in the rotation.

 

depends on your assessment of Marmol. I've thought for at least a year now that Marmol's repertoire was better suited for the bullpen, so I'd have put him there coming into this year. The alternates for the rotation would've been (for me) Guzman and Gallagher.

 

couldn't have said it better myself. marmol's performance this season has made a strong statement that his career will be in the bullpen, and it looks as if it will be a pretty successful one at that.

[Mephistopheles]

marquis is a signing that should have been made. hes not really an upgrade over say marmol in the rotation.

 

depends on your assessment of Marmol. I've thought for at least a year now that Marmol's repertoire was better suited for the bullpen, so I'd have put him there coming into this year. The alternates for the rotation would've been (for me) Guzman and Gallagher.

 

the cubs minor league system could have produced an era near five. marquis will probably be close to that.

[Jazz]

marquis is a signing that should have been made. hes not really an upgrade over say marmol in the rotation.

 

depends on your assessment of Marmol. I've thought for at least a year now that Marmol's repertoire was better suited for the bullpen, so I'd have put him there coming into this year. The alternates for the rotation would've been (for me) Guzman and Gallagher.

 

the cubs minor league system could have produced an era near five. marquis will probably be close to that.

 

time will tell.

 

point is, marquis had a stellar april. A great may, and a bad june. I think tommorow's start will tell us alot .

[TruffleShuffle]

marquis is a signing that should have been made. hes not really an upgrade over say marmol in the rotation.

 

depends on your assessment of Marmol. I've thought for at least a year now that Marmol's repertoire was better suited for the bullpen, so I'd have put him there coming into this year. The alternates for the rotation would've been (for me) Guzman and Gallagher.

 

the cubs minor league system could have produced an era near five. marquis will probably be close to that.

 

well he'll have to put up a second-half ERA above six for that forecast to pan out

[Mephistopheles]

marquis is a signing that should have been made. hes not really an upgrade over say marmol in the rotation.

 

depends on your assessment of Marmol. I've thought for at least a year now that Marmol's repertoire was better suited for the bullpen, so I'd have put him there coming into this year. The alternates for the rotation would've been (for me) Guzman and Gallagher.

 

the cubs minor league system could have produced an era near five. marquis will probably be close to that.

 

time will tell.

 

point is, marquis had a stellar april. A great may, and a bad june. I think tommorow's start will tell us alot .

one start will never tell us a lot. he wasnt great in may.

[Mephistopheles]

marquis is a signing that should have been made. hes not really an upgrade over say marmol in the rotation.

 

depends on your assessment of Marmol. I've thought for at least a year now that Marmol's repertoire was better suited for the bullpen, so I'd have put him there coming into this year. The alternates for the rotation would've been (for me) Guzman and Gallagher.

 

the cubs minor league system could have produced an era near five. marquis will probably be close to that.

 

well he'll have to put up a second-half ERA above six for that forecast to pan out

and thats not all that unlikely. hes not very good as you know ;)