Are the solutions here?

[Mephistopheles]

I guess you've seen him play SS? Word of mouth says he's a bad fielder, but he's looked pretty good out there so far, and Iowa certainly didn't seem shy about putting him at SS. He'll be below-average defensively, no question, and probably one of the best defensive SS in baseball, but he'll be fine on balls that are hit to him and I'd be willing to bet that his bat would make up for the loss of range that your boy Ronny would have.

 

No I haven't seen him play SS regularly and there's probably good reason he hasn't. Anyways, you're saying that my opinion based on word of mouth is bad, but then making an argument about his defense based on six games you've seen? In terms of grading defense, here's where I would rank various methods.

 

Actual Skill Level!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stats developed by Beane and other UBER ML teams *UZR included

 

 

 

 

Probability based methods

 

 

 

 

 

BP Methods

 

 

 

 

 

ZR

Scouts Eye

 

 

 

 

 

 

Es, FPCT, RF, etc

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TruffleShuffle's eyesight based on 6 games.

 

 

As you can see, the other reports certainly carry more weight than your six or seven games on TV.

 

 

 

You really like using the word "[expletive]"... how old are you, 13? And by the way, I based my argument on his strong performance at Iowa last year and this year, plus his PECOTA numbers - not his solid last week.

 

 

His .250 EqA on PECOTA!? WOW WE SHOULD ALL WANT TWO FIFTY EQAS. Fonte over Cedeno at 2B wouldn't be a dumb move. Fonte over Cedeno at SS would be. You're basing your argument on his strong performance at Iowa!? Awesome! Going into the season he was a career .281/.364/.432 hitter in AAA. He's been outstanding this year, no doubt.

 

Ronny Cedeno's Two Seasons In AAA:

 

2005 - .355/.403/.518

2007 - .347/.446/.537

 

Statistically, both of those performances are better than Fontenot's flukish start to the 2007 season in Iowa. To base your argument off of Fonte's AAA numbers when theyre significantly inferior to Cedeno's AAA numbers isn't going to win you very many arguments.

[TruffleShuffle]

Statistically, both of those performances are better than Fontenot's flukish start to the 2007 season in Iowa. To base your argument off of Fonte's AAA numbers when theyre significantly inferior to Cedeno's AAA numbers isn't going to win you very many arguments.

 

I'm glad Ronny can hit at Iowa, because he can't seem to hit anywhere else. Given how bad he was last year, I'm going to need to see some more proof that 2005 was not just the exception to the rule.

[Mephistopheles]

Statistically, both of those performances are better than Fontenot's flukish start to the 2007 season in Iowa. To base your argument off of Fonte's AAA numbers when theyre significantly inferior to Cedeno's AAA numbers isn't going to win you very many arguments.

 

I'm glad Ronny can hit at Iowa, because he can't seem to hit anywhere else. Given how bad he was last year, I'm going to need to see some more proof that 2005 was not just the exception to the rule.

 

You're missing the point. You're basically using good minor league numbers freely as you choose to make your argument and ignoring them for Cedeno when they are better. Cedeno has tools so while the uber BA is a bit of a fluke in AAA, so was the terrible 06 season. For hitters there IS a big adjustment period (learning curve) when they make the pros. There really isn't one for pitchers (TINSTAAPP).

 

Cedeno has above average bat speed, average SS power, and good contact skills. He's not prone to strikeouts. The biggest hole in his game are the walks, but when the BA is there it's a non-issue with his above average defense. He's not going to be an All-Star but the tools are there for him to be an above average major league shortstop. Fontenot's got no chance to be average much less above average.

[TruffleShuffle]

Cedeno has above average bat speed, average SS power, and good contact skills. He's not prone to strikeouts.

 

That must've been somebody else I watched strike out 110 times last year.

[J.R.]

just another NSBB [expletive] Flavor of the Month

 

Brilliance.

[Mephistopheles]

Cedeno has above average bat speed, average SS power, and good contact skills. He's not prone to strikeouts.

 

That must've been somebody else I watched strike out 110 times last year.

 

Ronny Cedeno has K'd 18% of the time in his career as a Chicago Cub. League average for K's by non-pitchers is about 17%. Again, adjustment season. Given his K% of 18% in the minors the fact that it was very very low against AAA pitching I would bet he's at worst league average when it comes to King. He's not prone to them.

[TruffleShuffle]

Cedeno has above average bat speed, average SS power, and good contact skills. He's not prone to strikeouts.

 

That must've been somebody else I watched strike out 110 times last year.

 

Ronny Cedeno has K'd 18% of the time in his career as a Chicago Cub. League average for K's by non-pitchers is about 17%. Again, adjustment season. Given his K% of 18% in the minors the fact that it was very very low against AAA pitching I would bet he's at worst league average when it comes to King. He's not prone to them.

 

believe me, I hope he turns it around. God knows we've got problems at SS, and haven't really had a solid SS since Shawon Dunston (and even he didn't know how to get on base). Izturis is lousy and Theriot is a utility player; Fontenot is ideally a 2B or utility guy too. The FA class at SS is a joke - the lawn gnome otherwise known as David Eckstein is the best option.

 

Dylan Johnston looks like a bust and there are otherwise no good SS prospects in the pipeline. It seems like every organization manufactures at least a couple of good Latin American prospects at SS, but Ronny is the last one we found, and he was signed 6 or 7 years ago. If he doesn't turn out to be the answer, I'll be damned if I can figure out who is.

[Mephistopheles]

You said it yourself. Fonte's a utility guy or a 2B. Cedeno may not be good now and may not be good eventually but he's the best choice we've got when it comes to upside and he's certainly not significantly worse than the other options. He should play.

 

The FA class at SS usually sucks. Drafting and developing SSs is a crapshoot too since they're always toolsy guys. Granted Cedeno is one of them, but his tools have played as high as AAA. Honestly, I don't value defense all that highly, it's just Fonte is that bad. I'd love for the Cubs to pry away Sean Rodriguez from the Angels and stick him at short. However, he's not the type of player the Cubs usually target and go after.

 

Dylan Johnston was a bust. Maybe Darwin Barney can hit enough to be average with his glove contributions but he's a Izturis upside guy to me. If I had to choose the Cubs SS in 2012 I'd say the two guys with the highest chance would be Ronny Cedeno or Brandon Crawford. I don't know if the Cubs would want Crawford, but he's just as likely as anyone else given the college spree this year and last.

Edited June 16, 2007 by Mephistopheles

[TruffleShuffle]

The FA class at SS usually sucks. Drafting and developing SSs is a crapshoot too since they're always toolsy guys.

 

Right, but just going through the BA handbook I see on most teams at least two SS prospects, many of whom are Dominican. A lot of guys with a smaller frame. Many of them end up being busts because their defense is better than their offense, and they end up being worse than Rey Rnez with the bat. But what pisses me off most about the Cubs minor league system (aside from the inability to develop hitters with a good approach at the plate) is the ineptitude when it comes to mining Latin American talent.

[Mephistopheles]

The FA class at SS usually sucks. Drafting and developing SSs is a crapshoot too since they're always toolsy guys.

 

Right, but just going through the BA handbook I see on most teams at least two SS prospects, many of whom are Dominican. A lot of guys with a smaller frame. Many of them end up being busts because their defense is better than their offense, and they end up being worse than Rey Rnez with the bat. But what pisses me off most about the Cubs minor league system (aside from the inability to develop hitters with a good approach at the plate) is the ineptitude when it comes to mining Latin American talent.

 

many of them end up being busts because the ones with good bats and average gloves move elsewhere along the diamond because teams value defense at SS so much. The Cubs problems developing LA SS talent doesnt have anything to do with SS. It's the talent in general, as you have said.

[TruffleShuffle]

The FA class at SS usually sucks. Drafting and developing SSs is a crapshoot too since they're always toolsy guys.

 

Right, but just going through the BA handbook I see on most teams at least two SS prospects, many of whom are Dominican. A lot of guys with a smaller frame. Many of them end up being busts because their defense is better than their offense, and they end up being worse than Rey Rnez with the bat. But what pisses me off most about the Cubs minor league system (aside from the inability to develop hitters with a good approach at the plate) is the ineptitude when it comes to mining Latin American talent.

 

many of them end up being busts because the ones with good bats and average gloves move elsewhere along the diamond because teams value defense at SS so much. The Cubs problems developing LA SS talent doesnt have anything to do with SS. It's the talent in general, as you have said.

 

who's in charge of that now? Jose Serra? Somebody has to be accountable, and while they've done a solid job finding LA pitchers, their ability to find/develop LA hitters has been atrocious. Considering that some of the team's most prominent hitters (Sosa, ARam, now Soriano) have been from the region, they really should have a better program down there.

[Guest]

Nate Samson has to be ahead of Dylan Johnston by now on the SS prospect list. And Brandon Crawford seems like the type of guy Wilken would love.

 

Truffle, Jose Serra is in charge of the DR while Hector Ortega is in charge of Venezuela.

[muntjack]

He was terrible here in April but that was in 31 sporadic ABs. He's the same age as EPatt and is showing amazing plate discipline in AAA.

 

This doesn't make sense... you're basically writing off his God-awful 2006 and his few ABs with the big club in 2007, but you're embracing the "amazing plate discipline" he's shown in about 100 PAs with Iowa?

 

No, sir, but I do attribute a lot of his struggles in '06 to the uber-aggressive approach that Dusty Baker and Co. worked to instill in him.

[NCCubFan]

I agree with bringing Cedeno back up if he's going to play, but not to be a reserve (at least not yet). It looks like he may have worked of the Dustiness at Iowa, but I think he needs to continue playing regularly, whether it's for the Cubs or in AAA. As far as Soto is concerned, as Raisin first mentioned in the Minor League forum, he's currently unable to catch because of a shoulder injury, so he's currently playing 1B and DH. It doesn't sound serious, so hopefully he'll come up to replace Hill when he's able to catch again.

 

How long has Soto been hurt? Is that why Hill was called up instead?

I only mentioned what Raisin posted in the Minor League forum; I don't know about that situation myself. I believe Raisin said that Soto hasn't caught since a couple of days after Hill was called up, so he may have been sore at the time. I think it's likely that was why Hill was called up instead, but that's just my speculation, nothing authoritative.

[A New Era]

I wouldn't worry about it too much until the 2 LSU brothers stop hitting. Right now Theroit and Fontenot are part of the reason this team is doing so well. Keep things the way they are right now. Don't change anything when you're on a tear. That's how I see it.

[Mephistopheles]

I wouldn't worry about it too much until the 2 LSU brothers stop hitting. Right now Theroit and Fontenot are part of the reason this team is doing so well. Keep things the way they are right now. Don't change anything when you're on a tear. That's how I see it.

 

 

theriot sucks

[Guest]

I agree with bringing Cedeno back up if he's going to play, but not to be a reserve (at least not yet). It looks like he may have worked of the Dustiness at Iowa, but I think he needs to continue playing regularly, whether it's for the Cubs or in AAA. As far as Soto is concerned, as Raisin first mentioned in the Minor League forum, he's currently unable to catch because of a shoulder injury, so he's currently playing 1B and DH. It doesn't sound serious, so hopefully he'll come up to replace Hill when he's able to catch again.

 

How long has Soto been hurt? Is that why Hill was called up instead?

I only mentioned what Raisin posted in the Minor League forum; I don't know about that situation myself. I believe Raisin said that Soto hasn't caught since a couple of days after Hill was called up, so he may have been sore at the time. I think it's likely that was why Hill was called up instead, but that's just my speculation, nothing authoritative.

 

Geovany Soto's last game catching in Iowa was on June 4th, ever since then he has DHed or played at first with what he called "shoulder fatigue." Koyie Hill was called up on June 2nd.

[dbeider]

We are talking about the same Cedeno right?

 

I'll take Theriot. Cedeno's approach to hitting has been awful. Statistically in the minor leagues Theriot and Cedeno have identical OPS. Theriot hits for more average and gets on base more, Cedeno has a little more power.

 

Major League stats in their brief ML careers there is no comparison whatsoever. Some guys don't hit ML pitching well, Theriot, regardless of his last 2 months has shown he has the discipline and approach that works. He does the right thinks more often than not, Cedeno to this point has not shown that.

 

Running the bases? Theriot has been caught stealing 4 times in 28 attempts. Cedeno? 9 caught in 19 attempts!!.

 

Oh and in the ML Theriot's fielding percentage is better at 2B and SS, and he also has been perfect in the few games he has played in the OF.

 

Glad Cedeno has been tearing it up in AAA, but he should stay there for a while.

[TruffleShuffle]

He was terrible here in April but that was in 31 sporadic ABs. He's the same age as EPatt and is showing amazing plate discipline in AAA.

 

This doesn't make sense... you're basically writing off his God-awful 2006 and his few ABs with the big club in 2007, but you're embracing the "amazing plate discipline" he's shown in about 100 PAs with Iowa?

 

No, sir, but I do attribute a lot of his struggles in '06 to the uber-aggressive approach that Dusty Baker and Co. worked to instill in him.

 

are we sure that dusty was telling him to swing at everything? Or would it be more accurate to say that Dusty wasn't telling him not to swing at everything.

[rawaction]

We are talking about the same Cedeno right?

 

I'll take Theriot. Cedeno's approach to hitting has been awful. Statistically in the minor leagues Theriot and Cedeno have identical OPS. Theriot hits for more average and gets on base more, Cedeno has a little more power.

 

Major League stats in their brief ML careers there is no comparison whatsoever. Some guys don't hit ML pitching well, Theriot, regardless of his last 2 months has shown he has the discipline and approach that works. He does the right thinks more often than not, Cedeno to this point has not shown that.

 

Running the bases? Theriot has been caught stealing 4 times in 28 attempts. Cedeno? 9 caught in 19 attempts!!.

 

Oh and in the ML Theriot's fielding percentage is better at 2B and SS, and he also has been perfect in the few games he has played in the OF.

 

Glad Cedeno has been tearing it up in AAA, but he should stay there for a while.

 

You have to take a lot in account in the Cedeno v. Theriot argument. On one hand, you have a 27-yo college experienced guy, on the other there's a 24-yo raw player. Theriot hasn't hit well recently and has a low .600s OPS since the 3rd week of the season. Ironically, very similar to what Cedeno did last year. There's a much better chance that Ronny improves than Theriot, simply because age and talent are on his side. Defensively, there's no signs to point to Cedeno ever being as bad as he was last year. Theriot is definitely more sure handed of the two, but range and arm go decidedly in Cedeno's favor.

 

That being said, if Izturis is still gonna get the ABs at SS, then Theriot is the better option to start occassionally and pinch hit. But once the Cubs decide the Izturis experiment is over, then Cedeno should be handed the SS job.

[dbeider]

We are talking about the same Cedeno right?

 

I'll take Theriot. Cedeno's approach to hitting has been awful. Statistically in the minor leagues Theriot and Cedeno have identical OPS. Theriot hits for more average and gets on base more, Cedeno has a little more power.

 

Major League stats in their brief ML careers there is no comparison whatsoever. Some guys don't hit ML pitching well, Theriot, regardless of his last 2 months has shown he has the discipline and approach that works. He does the right thinks more often than not, Cedeno to this point has not shown that.

 

Running the bases? Theriot has been caught stealing 4 times in 28 attempts. Cedeno? 9 caught in 19 attempts!!.

 

Oh and in the ML Theriot's fielding percentage is better at 2B and SS, and he also has been perfect in the few games he has played in the OF.

 

Glad Cedeno has been tearing it up in AAA, but he should stay there for a while.

 

You have to take a lot in account in the Cedeno v. Theriot argument. On one hand, you have a 27-yo college experienced guy, on the other there's a 24-yo raw player. Theriot hasn't hit well recently and has a low .600s OPS since the 3rd week of the season. Ironically, very similar to what Cedeno did last year. There's a much better chance that Ronny improves than Theriot, simply because age and talent are on his side. Defensively, there's no signs to point to Cedeno ever being as bad as he was last year. Theriot is definitely more sure handed of the two, but range and arm go decidedly in Cedeno's favor.

 

That being said, if Izturis is still gonna get the ABs at SS, then Theriot is the better option to start occassionally and pinch hit. But once the Cubs decide the Izturis experiment is over, then Cedeno should be handed the SS job.

 

I guess. However it depends on what your objectives are right now. We all know way too well that there are no guarantees that Cedeno will ever succeed at the ML level. Theriot has not had a great 4, 5, 6 weeks, but watching and going to the games Theriot consistently still hits to the opposite field, gets the bat on the ball, gets deep into the counts etc.

 

If you want to try and win this year, as bad as it's been, that is not a move I think is wise.

[muntjack]

He was terrible here in April but that was in 31 sporadic ABs. He's the same age as EPatt and is showing amazing plate discipline in AAA.

 

This doesn't make sense... you're basically writing off his God-awful 2006 and his few ABs with the big club in 2007, but you're embracing the "amazing plate discipline" he's shown in about 100 PAs with Iowa?

 

No, sir, but I do attribute a lot of his struggles in '06 to the uber-aggressive approach that Dusty Baker and Co. worked to instill in him.

 

are we sure that dusty was telling him to swing at everything? Or would it be more accurate to say that Dusty wasn't telling him not to swing at everything.

 

This seems inconsequential.

 

When Ronnie first came up (no Dusty influence) in '05 he looked very good, agreed?

 

In 2006 (Dusty) Ronnie was horrible.

 

In ST of this year (No Dusty), he was back to good again. He is destroying AAA right now.

 

Obviously he had 39 ABs this year in which his numbers were beyond horrible. I could argue sample size and that he was basically being platooned, so he never had a chance to develop any rhythm. The 100 ABs in AAA is also a small sample size, but toss in the ST ABs and Ronnie's 2005 and I think a case starts to build.

 

I certainly think its feasible that there is a correlation between Dusty teaching and young players struggling with plate discipline. Perhaps I'm completely wrong and Cedeno will become AAA filler, but I think the evidence at least warrants giving him another real shot.