Danny Payne Watch - Day 1

[imb]

Ga. Tech Jr CF Bats: L Throws: L

Danny Payne .397/.575/.603 78-AB 9-2B 2-3B 1-HR 33-BB 12-SO

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Take the bat off your shoulders, kid.

 

My cousin set his HS's all-time OBP high at 750 his senior year. His coach thought he should have been more aggressive. Stupid coach.

[Mephistopheles]

we dont want payne.

[imb]

I've heard you say that before. I don't know anything about him other than his numbers (as I imagine most dont) so why don't you fill us in?

[Mephistopheles]

ive always thought of him as a guy who at best might just might be an average outfielder. his upside isnt all that high and his power is maybe average for a centerfielder. hes hit 15 homers in over 650 college PAs and is only 5'11". I dont think he warrants the upside to be taken in the supplemental round this year. there are a lot of hs guys id rather go after. maybe in the third or fourth round hes a good pick.

 

If you're looking at a college outfielder at that pick, I'd take Kyle Russell over him in a heartbeat. Granted I'm probably a bit biased in this idea, but Russell has power and is pretty athletic and has a cannon for an arm. Hes already got thirteen bombs this season. He's a tough sign as he's a draft-eligible sophomore at Texas, but he's easily a better pick than Payne, in my opinion.

[the splendid splinter]

The Jackets better figure out how to beat powerhouses like U of Illinois Chicago, Georgia State and Western Carolina before they worry about who gets drafted where!!!

[mg420]

ive always thought of him as a guy who at best might just might be an average outfielder. his upside isnt all that high and his power is maybe average for a centerfielder. hes hit 15 homers in over 650 college PAs and is only 5'11". I dont think he warrants the upside to be taken in the supplemental round this year. there are a lot of hs guys id rather go after. maybe in the third or fourth round hes a good pick.

 

If you're looking at a college outfielder at that pick, I'd take Kyle Russell over him in a heartbeat. Granted I'm probably a bit biased in this idea, but Russell has power and is pretty athletic and has a cannon for an arm. Hes already got thirteen bombs this season. He's a tough sign as he's a draft-eligible sophomore at Texas, but he's easily a better pick than Payne, in my opinion.

 

what does his height have to do with anything? burgess is also "only" 5'11" and is the top power prospect in the draft. btw, russell hit .276 in 2006 and payne hit .356

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I don't know much about Payne or Russell, but I'm not sure how important their respective college batting averages are when considering them as pro prospects.

[Mephistopheles]

Q: Dan Mattheis from Fairfield, CA asks:

Texas sophomore Kyle Russle (who came in this year as the #48 sophomore in the country and the 4th rated Longhorn sophomore) is proving to be a witch who can swing it with a 1.403 OPS. That's just sick. Where is Russel at on those lists today?

A:

 

Aaron Fitt: I haven't spoken with any scouts about Russell yet this spring, but based solely on his ridiculous production, he has moved up definitely into the top 20 in that sophomore class, and maybe the top 10. Some scouts were scared off him by what they saw in the Cape last summer, but his stock has more than rebounded from that hit, I would think.

[TruffleShuffle]

Sort of like Kevin Youkilis... great discipline, great college hitter, but doesn't have great power and isn't a great athlete.

 

Still, I have a few problems with the way you've analyzed him, Mephistopheles. First, he has 16 HR in about 680 PA, but because of his great patience, about 20% of those PA end up with him not swinging the bat. You can't penalize him for that. So really, he's got 16 HR in 530 AB, which isn't bad at all for a college player.

 

The other main problem is that he did hit well for power last year. According to his bio, at the time he got hurt in 2006, he was leading the team in HR with 11. Add to that the fact that he's a good base-stealer and a very good defensive CF, and I'd say that he looks like a very good prospect.

[Guest]

I'll ask it here, though it applies in more than one place: what is GT's home park factor?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'll ask it here, though it applies in more than one place: what is GT's home park factor?

 

This is dated(2002-2005), but it doesn't appear to have much of one at all.

 

Link

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Here's something on Payne from BP.

 

In a year where college hitters are few and far between, many players who aren't evaluated as first-round talents could move into seven-figure bonus territory, as teams looking for older talent will be left with little to choose from. "If you look at the teams picking from 15-30, you'll see a lot of teams that traditionally pick college heavy," said one scouting director. "Those teams are definitely going to move some borderline college talent into the first round, even though they might not belong there based solely on their scouting reports."

 

One such player is Georgia Tech center fielder Danny Payne. Currently leading the Yellow Jackets in batting at .383, Payne has the patience that numbers analysts adore, leading major colleges with 46 walks, good for an on-base percentage that is north of .500. He also serves as the team's part-time closer, striking out 17 in 12.1 innings which pitching primarily off his fastball.

 

At the same time, he's your classic college "stats over tools" type of player. Depending on who you talk to, Payne is one to three inches below his listed height of five-foot-eleven, has limited power and only average speed, and his on-the-field performance is bolstered by an infectious, all-out effort. "It's impossible to not like him," said one scout based in the southeast. "But it's hard to really figure out what he's going to be."

[TruffleShuffle]

At the same time, he's your classic college "stats over tools" type of player. Depending on who you talk to, Payne is one to three inches below his listed height of five-foot-eleven, has limited power and only average speed, and his on-the-field performance is bolstered by an infectious, all-out effort. "It's impossible to not like him," said one scout based in the southeast. "But it's hard to really figure out what he's going to be."

 

Lenny Dykstra. Not a lot of power, pretty good but not great speed, good patience, undersized, plays balls-to-the-wall. This comparison has been raised before, and it seems to be a very apt one.

[Mephistopheles]

At the same time, he's your classic college "stats over tools" type of player. Depending on who you talk to, Payne is one to three inches below his listed height of five-foot-eleven, has limited power and only average speed, and his on-the-field performance is bolstered by an infectious, all-out effort. "It's impossible to not like him," said one scout based in the southeast. "But it's hard to really figure out what he's going to be."

 

Lenny Dykstra. Not a lot of power, pretty good but not great speed, good patience, undersized, plays balls-to-the-wall. This comparison has been raised before, and it seems to be a very apt one.

 

 

For every Lenny Dykstra there are hundreds of guys comparable to him who flame out in AA.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

At the same time, he's your classic college "stats over tools" type of player. Depending on who you talk to, Payne is one to three inches below his listed height of five-foot-eleven, has limited power and only average speed, and his on-the-field performance is bolstered by an infectious, all-out effort. "It's impossible to not like him," said one scout based in the southeast. "But it's hard to really figure out what he's going to be."

 

Lenny Dykstra. Not a lot of power, pretty good but not great speed, good patience, undersized, plays balls-to-the-wall. This comparison has been raised before, and it seems to be a very apt one.

 

 

For every Lenny Dykstra there are hundreds of guys comparable to him who flame out in AA.

 

Sam Fuld and Adam Greenberg being immediate examples that jump to mind.

[texascub]

At the same time, he's your classic college "stats over tools" type of player. Depending on who you talk to, Payne is one to three inches below his listed height of five-foot-eleven, has limited power and only average speed, and his on-the-field performance is bolstered by an infectious, all-out effort. "It's impossible to not like him," said one scout based in the southeast. "But it's hard to really figure out what he's going to be."

 

Lenny Dykstra. Not a lot of power, pretty good but not great speed, good patience, undersized, plays balls-to-the-wall. This comparison has been raised before, and it seems to be a very apt one.

 

 

For every Lenny Dykstra there are hundreds of guys comparable to him who flame out in AA.

 

Sam Fuld and Adam Greenberg being immediate examples that jump to mind.

 

Chris Walker too, though he's got very good speed.

[TruffleShuffle]

At the same time, he's your classic college "stats over tools" type of player. Depending on who you talk to, Payne is one to three inches below his listed height of five-foot-eleven, has limited power and only average speed, and his on-the-field performance is bolstered by an infectious, all-out effort. "It's impossible to not like him," said one scout based in the southeast. "But it's hard to really figure out what he's going to be."

 

Lenny Dykstra. Not a lot of power, pretty good but not great speed, good patience, undersized, plays balls-to-the-wall. This comparison has been raised before, and it seems to be a very apt one.

 

 

For every Lenny Dykstra there are hundreds of guys comparable to him who flame out in AA.

 

Sam Fuld and Adam Greenberg being immediate examples that jump to mind.

 

Chris Walker too, though he's got very good speed.

 

Three guys drafted much lower than Payne will be.

[Mephistopheles]

At the same time, he's your classic college "stats over tools" type of player. Depending on who you talk to, Payne is one to three inches below his listed height of five-foot-eleven, has limited power and only average speed, and his on-the-field performance is bolstered by an infectious, all-out effort. "It's impossible to not like him," said one scout based in the southeast. "But it's hard to really figure out what he's going to be."

 

Lenny Dykstra. Not a lot of power, pretty good but not great speed, good patience, undersized, plays balls-to-the-wall. This comparison has been raised before, and it seems to be a very apt one.

 

 

For every Lenny Dykstra there are hundreds of guys comparable to him who flame out in AA.

 

Sam Fuld and Adam Greenberg being immediate examples that jump to mind.

 

Chris Walker too, though he's got very good speed.

 

Three guys drafted much lower than Payne will be.

 

Its still a pathetic notion. Mike Fontenot. And he was drafted much higher than Payne will be.

[TruffleShuffle]

Its still a pathetic notion. Mike Fontenot. And he was drafted much higher than Payne will be.

 

fine, feel free to regale us with more of your horribly flawed analysis of the player.

[imb]

I like Payne, and I'm rooting for him, but if his "horribly flawed analysis" agrees with the majority of the scouts, well, what can you do?

[Mephistopheles]

Its still a pathetic notion. Mike Fontenot. And he was drafted much higher than Payne will be.

 

fine, feel free to regale us with more of your horribly flawed analysis of the player.

expand and back up your claims.

[Mephistopheles]

Why am I not surprised....

[TruffleShuffle]

Its still a pathetic notion. Mike Fontenot. And he was drafted much higher than Payne will be.

 

fine, feel free to regale us with more of your horribly flawed analysis of the player.

expand and back up your claims.

 

You criticized him based on his number of HRs per plate appearance, which penalizes anybody who has a patient approach at the plate.

[TruffleShuffle]

Why am I not surprised....

 

sorry i didn't get back to you within the allotted 18 hour time limit