3/19ST Cubs (ss) Vs. Mariners (ss)/Cubs @ Brewers 3:05 CT

[cheapseats]

... PECOTA has been deadly accurate in recent rookie projections...

 

I know it turned out deadly for the Cubs the last two years, last year when Cedeno didn't come close to his PECOTA, and two years ago when DuBois didn't come close to his PECOTA.

I don't think PECOTA has ever been very good for rookies.

 

I disagree. Of the prominent rookies from 2005, only Cano and Reed look off to me:

 

Robinson Cano

2005 PECOTA: .255/.298/.389

Real 2005: .297/.320/.458

 

Willy Taveras

2005 PECOTA: .252/.330/.334

Real 2005: .291/.325/.341

 

Clint Barmes

2005 PECOTA: .272/.315/.424

Real 2005: .289/.330/.434

 

Ryan Howard

2005 PECOTA: .259/.341/.508

Real 2005: .288/.356/.567

 

Jonny Gomes

2005 PECOTA: .265/.366/.491

Real 2005: .282/.372/.534

 

Garrett Atkins

2005 PECOTA: .287/.354/.461

Real 2005: .287/.347/.426

 

Dan Johnson

2005 PECOTA: .259/.343/.445

Real 2005: .275/.355/.451

 

Ryan Langerhans

2005 PECOTA: .265/.357/.456

Real 2005: .267/.348/.426

 

Russ Adams

2005 PECOTA: .268/.338/.396

Real 2005: .256/.325/.383

 

Jeremy Reed

2005 PECOTA: .286/.353/.423

Real 2005: .254/.322/.352

 

Mark Teahen

2005 PECOTA: .251/.322/.375

Real 2005: .246/.309/.376

 

Nick Swisher

2005 PECOTA: .244/.351/.423

Real 2005: .236/.322/.446

[Laura]

 

who was pitching for that one?

 

Yovani Gallardo gave up 5 runs in the first inning, including Jones' 3-R HR.

[98navigator]

Jacque is locked in at the plate.

 

Whatd he do now?

 

He singled and later scored on Ward's double.

 

Earlier, he hit a 3-run homer

 

who was pitching for that one?

 

I don't know; one of their MiL guys

 

Edit: Zach Jackson was the LHP

Edited March 19, 2007 by 98navigator

[radarluv1]

 

who was pitching for that one?

 

Yovani Gallardo gave up 5 runs in the first inning, including Jones' 3-R HR.

 

i was hoping that was a lefty, since pie had 2 hits, too.

[98navigator]

 

who was pitching for that one?

 

Yovani Gallardo gave up 5 runs in the first inning, including Jones' 3-R HR.

 

i was hoping that was a lefty, since pie had 2 hits, too.

 

Gallardo lasted one inning. Jackson (LHP) was just replaced in the 4th.

[Soriano12]

Miller getting roughed up. Looks like Seattle just scored 3 off of him.

 

Yeah, Beltre hit a 3 run HR.

 

He must be back on the roids.

[CubColtPacer]

The Cubs against Seattle added 3 more runs in the 3rd. Izturis, Soriano, and Theriot got hits (Theriot a triple) and somebody else reached on an error. It's 11-4 Cubs after 3.

[98navigator]

It's 11-4 in Mesa

 

8-1 in the Brewers game

[Jehrico]

... PECOTA has been deadly accurate in recent rookie projections...

 

I know it turned out deadly for the Cubs the last two years, last year when Cedeno didn't come close to his PECOTA, and two years ago when DuBois didn't come close to his PECOTA.

I don't think PECOTA has ever been very good for rookies.

 

I disagree. Of the prominent rookies from 2005, only Cano and Reed look off to me:

 

Robinson Cano

2005 PECOTA: .255/.298/.389

Real 2005: .297/.320/.458

 

Willy Taveras

2005 PECOTA: .252/.330/.334

Real 2005: .291/.325/.341

 

Clint Barmes

2005 PECOTA: .272/.315/.424

Real 2005: .289/.330/.434

 

Ryan Howard

2005 PECOTA: .259/.341/.508

Real 2005: .288/.356/.567

 

Jonny Gomes

2005 PECOTA: .265/.366/.491

Real 2005: .282/.372/.534

 

Garrett Atkins

2005 PECOTA: .287/.354/.461

Real 2005: .287/.347/.426

 

Dan Johnson

2005 PECOTA: .259/.343/.445

Real 2005: .275/.355/.451

 

Ryan Langerhans

2005 PECOTA: .265/.357/.456

Real 2005: .267/.348/.426

 

Russ Adams

2005 PECOTA: .268/.338/.396

Real 2005: .256/.325/.383

 

Jeremy Reed

2005 PECOTA: .286/.353/.423

Real 2005: .254/.322/.352

 

Mark Teahen

2005 PECOTA: .251/.322/.375

Real 2005: .246/.309/.376

 

Nick Swisher

2005 PECOTA: .244/.351/.423

Real 2005: .236/.322/.446

It's easy to back up a statement like that when you can hand pick what guys stats you use to back it up. Those guys aren't prominent just because they are, they are prominent because they did well. PECOTA projects numbers like that for a ton of rookies, only a few do that well. That's why the "prominent" ones stand out and make PECOTA look good. The standard deviation for rooks is considerably higher than veterans across the board. It's not a great, or even good, tool for projecting rookies. That's not to say there are any better tools out there though. It'd be foolish to say Pie is likely to his as well as Jones this year just based on Pecota.

Edited March 19, 2007 by Jehrico

[cheapseats]

The Cubs against Seattle added 3 more runs in the 3rd. Izturis, Soriano, and Theriot got hits (Theriot a triple) and somebody else reached on an error. It's 11-4 Cubs after 3.

 

Wow!

[Soriano12]

TheRiot is amazing

[98navigator]

Fielder walks

[98navigator]

The Cubs offense has the ability to be a force.

 

MLB.Tv went blank

[radarluv1]

blank screen now.

 

so im clear, the first inning was pitched by a MiL rookie?

[OBPMatters]

I take it Gallagher's shoulder is fine?

[98navigator]

blank screen now.

 

so im clear, the first inning was pitched by a MiL rookie?

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/boxscore.jsp?gid=2007_03_19_chnmlb_milmlb_1

[C.C.]

The Cubs offense has the ability to be a force.

 

MLB.Tv went blank

 

Sure did...

[cheapseats]

... PECOTA has been deadly accurate in recent rookie projections...

 

I know it turned out deadly for the Cubs the last two years, last year when Cedeno didn't come close to his PECOTA, and two years ago when DuBois didn't come close to his PECOTA.

I don't think PECOTA has ever been very good for rookies.

 

I disagree. Of the prominent rookies from 2005, only Cano and Reed look off to me:

 

Robinson Cano

2005 PECOTA: .255/.298/.389

Real 2005: .297/.320/.458

 

Willy Taveras

2005 PECOTA: .252/.330/.334

Real 2005: .291/.325/.341

 

Clint Barmes

2005 PECOTA: .272/.315/.424

Real 2005: .289/.330/.434

 

Ryan Howard

2005 PECOTA: .259/.341/.508

Real 2005: .288/.356/.567

 

Jonny Gomes

2005 PECOTA: .265/.366/.491

Real 2005: .282/.372/.534

 

Garrett Atkins

2005 PECOTA: .287/.354/.461

Real 2005: .287/.347/.426

 

Dan Johnson

2005 PECOTA: .259/.343/.445

Real 2005: .275/.355/.451

 

Ryan Langerhans

2005 PECOTA: .265/.357/.456

Real 2005: .267/.348/.426

 

Russ Adams

2005 PECOTA: .268/.338/.396

Real 2005: .256/.325/.383

 

Jeremy Reed

2005 PECOTA: .286/.353/.423

Real 2005: .254/.322/.352

 

Mark Teahen

2005 PECOTA: .251/.322/.375

Real 2005: .246/.309/.376

 

Nick Swisher

2005 PECOTA: .244/.351/.423

Real 2005: .236/.322/.446

It's easy to back up a statement like that when you can hand pick what guys stats you use to back it up. Those guys aren't prominent just because they are, they are prominent because they did well. PECOTA projects numbers like that for a ton of rookies, only a few do that well. That's why the "prominent" ones stand out and make PECOTA look good. The standard deviation for rooks is considerably higher than veterans across the board. It's not a great, or even good, tool for projecting rookies. That's not to say there are any better tools out there though. I'd be foolish to say Pie is likely to his as well as Jones this year just based on Pecota.

 

I didn't handpick the players. I pulled them off the first blog I could find that listed them. If you'd rather pick a different list of players, feel free.

 

It's not a great or even good tool for projecting rookie performance even though it got most of the performances listed above right? Okay.

 

.304 .333 .464

.254 .315 .427

.249 .319 .438

 

Those were Jones' 3 years before joining the Cubs. Do you think he's more likely to replicate 2006 or 2003-2005?

Edited March 19, 2007 by cheapseats

[98navigator]

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

[Omar]

Hahaha.. Ballfour. Why isnt he a Cub?

[CubColtPacer]

 

It's not a great or even good tool for projecting rookie performance even though it got most of the performances listed above right? Okay.

 

.304 .333 .464

.254 .315 .427

.249 .319 .438

 

Those were Jones' 3 years before joining the Cubs. Do you think he's more likely to replicate 2006 or 2003-2005?

 

When you look at his home/away splits for his last 5 years in the Metrodome, it will be more likely he will be closer to 2006 than 2004-2005.

[A New Era]

mlb.tv back for me. .

[karenmac]

mlb.tv back up - Clay Rapada in to pitch

[98navigator]

2 runs have scored

 

runners at the corners/ no outs

 

Rapada in

 

Quickly gets a DP

 

8-4

[moorecg]

 

It's not a great or even good tool for projecting rookie performance even though it got most of the performances listed above right? Okay.

 

.304 .333 .464

.254 .315 .427

.249 .319 .438

 

Those were Jones' 3 years before joining the Cubs. Do you think he's more likely to replicate 2006 or 2003-2005?

 

When you look at his home/away splits for his last 5 years in the Metrodome, it will be more likely he will be closer to 2006 than 2004-2005.

 

Not to completely jump into this...but I'd also point out that if you add in last years numbers to those, you'd really have no reason to think he wouldn't hit close to .300 with a .330+ OBP...he did it in 2 of the 4 years in question.