Impact of Gerald Perry

[BigbadB]

There was a lot of addition by subtraction in the walk department this year. If each starter could average 50 walks, the team would have 400, which is more than they drew last year, and that doesn't include the 5 bench players.

 

And, this was a team that preached aggressiveness and scowled at the thought of drawing a base on balls under Dusty. So far, I've heard that Lou likes drawing walks and Perry might be a perfect fit to help change the dynamics that have been preached too much over the last several years.

 

It honestly does not take a rocket scientist to figure out baserunners are a good thing. Especially in this day and age of the long ball. The Cubs have the power to easily lead the league in HR's this coming season. It makes sense to find ways to get hitters on base to add emphasis to those HR's.

 

Most teams are all pretty close across the board in AVG. AVG. does not make up the huge discrepancy in runs scored between teams like Philadelphia and the Cubs. OBP does.

 

I'll get really excited in this coming season if I hear more emphasis on getting on base via the walk.

 

The difference of a .319 OBP and 716 runs in 2006 to something in the neighborhood of .335 and the 831 runs they scored in 1998 can make a huge impact on the standings. Couple that in with good pitching, and there really is no telling how good this team could be.

 

Zambrano being his normal self, a healthy Prior, second half of 2006 Hill and anything respectable in the back half of the rotation and you have the makings of a dominant team.

 

I'm actually excited about the prospects of this team, but I do still have my guard up. Guarded optimism.

 

Lou, please don't shatter my guarded optimism with something silly like batting Izturis 2nd in the order.

[craig]

Notes:

1. Aram. Perry already had him, in Pittsburgh. Maybe perry will help him. Maybe Aram is at a point in his career where Perry will help him. Maybe Perry is a more experienced and more persuasive coach at this stage. But the two guys have worked together before, and Aram did not walk much then. Whatever Perry tells him now, it won't be a radically new voice or a radically new message from what Aram has already heard before.

 

2. Part of the team is the bench, and in recent years bench guys have played a lot of AB for the Cubs. Theriot is not Neifi. Floyd is not Macias. Ward is not Cedeno. The team could get a non-trivial boost in walks and OBP from the bench.

 

3. On cracking the top 10 versus sneaking into top 6-8: For many statistical categories, a lot of teams tend to bunch around the middle. The OBP difference between 5th place and 11th place may not actually be very substantial. But, even to get up near average would be a major step, given how horrifically far below average we were last year.

 

4. I think it's well feasible that the team could be average or perhaps a shade above. Relative to positions:

C: Barrett is likely asset.

1B: Lee is likely asset, and a likely huge asset relative to 06 Cubs 1B. 2B: DeRosa isn't likely an OBP liability (alhtough he could be), and is a possible asset. Neifi and Cedeno played some really low-OBP 2B last year, while Walker was fine and Theriot ws excllent. May not be hard to hold steady or perhaps improve.

SS: Izturis is likely liability. But Neifi/Cedeno/Iz were awful, so won't be hard to hold steady, and even Iz could improve substantially relative to Cubs 06 at SS. And, I think there's a chance that Iz will end up being a modest liability, not necessarily a monster one. (Cedeno was .271 last year, that's huge. Izturis's 3-year average is .315. He may not reach that, and it's still OBP liability even if he does. But not nearly the killer that Cedeno, Neifi, and Corey have been in recent years.)

3B: Aram may not walk as much as we might prefer, but his OBP is still an asset.

LF: Murton/Floyd looks like an OBP asset.

CF: Soriano last year was .351, and career leadoff is .340+, I believe. May not be the OBP asset you'd expect for a $136 man, but it's not likely that he'll be much of an OBP drag, either.

RF: Jones is likely to be a liability. But again, a .328-type guy (his career norm, and he was higher than that last year) won't drag you too badly.

Bench: Floyd, Theriot, and Ward project to be pretty solid, an asset relative to what most bench's give. (Around the league, the bench norm is much lower than the overall league average). If Kinkada makes the team he might help, too.

 

It's the Cubs, so we know things will probably go all wrong.

 

But past history and normal Cub anxiety aside, I think the Cubs project to be pretty average, perhaps even better, in OBP.

[Guest]

Having coaches is fine, and they can preach till they are blue in the face, but what it comes down to is this....the players are going to want to change, or impliment what Perry is saying if they are going to be successful. Until the change take affect during the reg season, I wouldn't get too excited about a coach.

[craig]

I love patience and plate discipline, and I love walks for their own sake.

 

But it's also always worth remembering that over the last 10 years in the NL, the average player gets on base 4 times as often by hit as he does by walk/HBP. That 20% contribution from the walks is a really important factor. But the 80% contributed by the hitting is important, too! Aram, Lee, Barrett, Murton, the Cubs have some good hitters. They could have an above-average OBP without needing to walk at more than an average rate.

[Amazing_Grace]

If the Cubs crack the top 10 in the NL in OBP this season, I'll be surprised.

 

I wouldn't be that surprised with top 10 in OBP. I would be with top 10 in walks. The team is a good hitting for average team. And they could lead the league in that stat. It wouldn't take an enormous increase in walks to crack the top 10 in OBP.

 

That's a good point. It would take a really impatient team to lead the league in BA and still be in the bottom 6 in OBP. There's something to be said here for not having OBP voids like Perez and Bynum sucking up so many ABs from the bench. Theriot, Ward, Floyd, and I'm hoping B. Hill will be a huge OBP improvement over last year's crap.

 

Still I think the over/under top 10 in NL OBP comes down to Lee staying healthy and whether Piniella has enough sense to bench Jones vs. lefties (doesn't really matter for who, almost anyone is better).

[BigbadB]

It would take a really impatient team to lead the league in BA and still be in the bottom 6 in OBP.

 

The Cubs have done it. Or at least came very close.

 

2006: 5th in AVG, 16th in OBP

2005: 2nd in AVG, 11th in OBP

2004: 6th in AVG, 11th in OBP

2003: 11th in AVG, 13th in OBP

 

 

During the 4 years that Hendry/Baker have been in charge, the Cubs have walked 1795 times.

 

Atlanta: 2192

Philadelphia: 2561

NY Mets: 2034

Washington: 2103

Florida: 2023

 

St. Louis: 2193

Houston: 2213

Cincinnati: 2348

Milwaukee: 2120

Pittsburgh: 1874

 

San Diego: 2295

Colorado: 2257

LA Dodgers: 2085

San Francisco: 2223

Arizona: 2082

 

Cubs walks in 2006: 395

League average walks in 2006: 537

 

Cubs walks in 2005: 419

League average in walks in 2005: 525

 

Cubs walks in 2004: 489

League average walks in 2004: 546

 

Cubs walks in 2003: 492

League average walks in 2003: 541

 

The league average in walks stays pretty consistent year after year. The Cubs walk rate has plummeted each year of Hendry's tenure. In the Baylor/Kimm year, the Cubs walked 585 times. That team just couldn't hit.

[Amazing_Grace]

It would take a really impatient team to lead the league in BA and still be in the bottom 6 in OBP.

 

The Cubs have done it. Or at least came very close.

 

2006: 5th in AVG, 16th in OBP

2005: 2nd in AVG, 11th in OBP

2004: 6th in AVG, 11th in OBP

2003: 11th in AVG, 13th in OBP

 

 

During the 4 years that Hendry/Baker have been in charge, the Cubs have walked 1795 times.

 

Atlanta: 2192

Philadelphia: 2561

NY Mets: 2034

Washington: 2103

Florida: 2023

 

St. Louis: 2193

Houston: 2213

Cincinnati: 2348

Milwaukee: 2120

Pittsburgh: 1874

 

San Diego: 2295

Colorado: 2257

LA Dodgers: 2085

San Francisco: 2223

Arizona: 2082

 

Cubs walks in 2006: 395

League average walks in 2006: 537

 

Cubs walks in 2005: 419

League average in walks in 2005: 525

 

Cubs walks in 2004: 489

League average walks in 2004: 546

 

Cubs walks in 2003: 492

League average walks in 2003: 541

 

The league average in walks stays pretty consistent year after year. The Cubs walk rate has plummeted each year of Hendry's tenure. In the Baylor/Kimm year, the Cubs walked 585 times. That team just couldn't hit.

 

I think we need to nail this post to Hendry's front door, his desk, his office door, his fridge, and on the door to the Cubs home locker room. The really odd thing is, both Baker and Hendry loved speed players, but speed is far more useful when the speedy guy can get on base consistently.

 

If the Cubs OBP improves by more points than their batting average, I'll give the coaching staff a lot of the credit, because Hendry certainly hasn't earned any.