FOX Sports Article on Sleepers and Flops

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Link

 

His sleepers include Kotchman, Youklis, and Thorman. A couple of the flops are Sexson and Giambi.

 

Who are your sleepers? flops?

[Drew Doughty]

Who is drafting Sexson to be a big contributor this year? He would be a sleeper, not a flop. He's a guy you take when you like the rest of your team. A flop would be a top-tier guy that fails, right?

 

Anyways, a couple of sleepers: Matt Cain, Howie Kendrick, Rich Hill, and a few guys I don't want to spoil for myself in the draft ;)

 

A few flops would be a portion of the rookie pitching class last year (verlander, weaver, anibal sanchez, and billingsley). I also don't like Wang very much, though he wasn't a rookie last year.

[TruffleShuffle]

Who is drafting Sexson to be a big contributor this year? He would be a sleeper, not a flop. He's a guy you take when you like the rest of your team. A flop would be a top-tier guy that fails, right?

 

Anyways, a couple of sleepers: Matt Cain, Howie Kendrick, Rich Hill, and a few guys I don't want to spoil for myself in the draft ;)

 

A few flops would be a portion of the rookie pitching class last year (verlander, weaver, anibal sanchez, and billingsley). I also don't like Wang very much, though he wasn't a rookie last year.

 

I dunno why some of those guys would flop - don't rookies usually improve, not get worse? And guys like Verlander and Weaver have been highly-touted prospects their whole careers, so I don't think they're really a flash in the pan.

 

As for sleepers, I think anyone who has even average knowledge of baseball knows that Hill had a great second half last year, and Kendrick has been an amazing hitter in the minors. If people are sleeping on him, they're idiots.

[imb]

The guy got paid to write a few words on fantasy firstbasemen? Jesus, I want that job.

[Drew Doughty]

Well, Verlander was fluky in the first half and was just awful in the second half. He's also a large injury risk.

 

It would be a pretty dumb thing to do to just look at a young player and say he will definitely get better, ESPECIALLY a pitcher.

 

And I read just a few weeks ago that it's actually fairly common practice for pitchers to fly out of the gate and fall off after that, though I can't remember where I read it or what the reasoning was.

 

Did you think Zach Duke was going to be amazing this year?

[goonys evil twin]

I dunno why some of those guys would flop - don't rookies usually improve, not get worse?

 

sophomore slump

[Drew Doughty]

Dave Bush would be another sleeper, too.

[TruffleShuffle]

Well, Verlander was fluky in the first half and was just awful in the second half. He's also a large injury risk.

 

How's he a large injury risk? He didn't get hurt in high school or college and hasn't gotten hurt as a pro. He threw less than 100 pitches per start last year, and he wasn't abused.

 

Also, he wasn't awful in the second half. His ERA was 4.54 after the all-star break - not good, but hardly awful. I'd also guess that some of it was hitting the rookie wall, since his previous max was 130 innings in a year.

[TruffleShuffle]

I dunno why some of those guys would flop - don't rookies usually improve, not get worse?

 

sophomore slump

 

sophomore slump is bull crap, guys can have a bad year anytime. It just gets named that because some players have a lucky/fluky first year and then get noticed, and then they come back to earth their second year. Nobody talks about the "sophomore break out" when they do what Ryan Howard did this year.

[wolf stansson]

Sophomore slump is more real in pitchers.

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/tom_verducci/11/28/pitchers/index.html

 

Get ready for the down side to all that young pitching success. It's called the 2007 season. More specifically, it's the Year-After Effect, the price teams almost always pay for pushing their young pitchers too far. And we could be due for a huge crash next season.

 

I've been tracking the YAE for about a decade now. It's based on a general rule of thumb among executives and pitching coaches: young pitchers should not have their innings workload increased by more than 25 or 30 innings per year. It's the same principle as training for a marathon; you get to 26.1 miles incrementally, not by jumping directly from a 10K. The body cannot easily withstand being pushed so far behind its previous capacity for work, at least not without consequences. Typically, those consequences occur the next season, not the year in which the body is pushed.

 

When I've looked at major league pitchers 25-and-younger who were pushed 30 or more innings beyond their previous season (or, in cases such as injury-shortened years, their previous pro high), I've been amazed how often those pitchers broke down with a serious injury the next season or took a major step backward in their development. (The season total includes all innings in the minors, majors and postseason. )

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v633/chizip/yae.jpg

[Drew Doughty]

Well, Verlander was fluky in the first half and was just awful in the second half. He's also a large injury risk.

 

How's he a large injury risk? He didn't get hurt in high school or college and hasn't gotten hurt as a pro. He threw less than 100 pitches per start last year, and he wasn't abused.

 

Also, he wasn't awful in the second half. His ERA was 4.54 after the all-star break - not good, but hardly awful. I'd also guess that some of it was hitting the rookie wall, since his previous max was 130 innings in a year.

 

That's why he's an injury risk: his previous high was a 130 innings. Also, if you talk to local board pitching expert Baseball(numbers), he thinks Verlander's delivery sucks (though I wouldn't personally put much stock in that...). He jumped about 90 innings from his previous high. That doesn't necessarily show up in the first year (outside of tiredness). Second year is when you start to see it.

 

Also, Verlander's second half is skewed a little bit by his great July. He was pretty bad in Aug/September. He wasn't any better in the playoffs either.

[Drew Doughty]

I dunno why some of those guys would flop - don't rookies usually improve, not get worse?

 

sophomore slump

 

sophomore slump is bull crap, guys can have a bad year anytime. It just gets named that because some players have a lucky/fluky first year and then get noticed, and then they come back to earth their second year. Nobody talks about the "sophomore break out" when they do what Ryan Howard did this year.

 

There's a vast difference between Howard and the average second year player. Howard was 26 this year. Your typical second year player doesn't have that much experience under his belt.

 

I suppose it also bears mentioning that Howard is a hitter and the career trajectory of a hitter is far different than that of a pitcher.

[Mephistopheles]

Who is drafting Sexson to be a big contributor this year? He would be a sleeper, not a flop. He's a guy you take when you like the rest of your team. A flop would be a top-tier guy that fails, right?

 

Not only that they said he "struggles" to hit 30 homers. He hit 34 last year and 39 the year before. In fact in a season where he played in at least 50 games he's hit over 30 in ever season except one. where he hit 29.

[nilodnayr]

The guy got paid to write a few words on fantasy firstbasemen? Jesus, I want that job.

 

 

Avoid Sexson when other established fantasy starting first basemen are available like Paul Konerko and Carlos Delgado. It's also better to risk taking young star first basemen like Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez at the corner infield spots instead of Sexson.

 

Not only did he write a few words, but a few words that a mentally challenged female from from inner mongolia who lost all her limbs in a tragic landmine accident who has no concept of baseball or the English language could have written.

 

I shouldn't take Sexson when Konerko is on the board?!?!?!? Woah, my mind was just blown.