[davearm]

Not that anyone really needs this level of information but here goes anyway...

 

Drawing a linear trendline through (67, 88, 89, 79, 66) yields a slightly downward-sloping line of the form:

 

y = -1.1x + 81.1

 

The key piece of information here is the -1.1.

 

It tells us that if the 5 year "Hendry trend" continues, the Cubs should be expected to win 1.1 fewer games every year going forward. In year 6, the Cubs' win total projects to ~75.

 

So the guy who drew that perfectly flat line through the datapoints was actually being generous. :(

[CubinNY]

Not that anyone really needs this level of information but here goes anyway...

 

Drawing a linear trendline through (67, 88, 89, 79, 66) yields a slightly downward-sloping line of the form:

 

y = -1.1x + 81.1

 

The key piece of information here is the -1.1.

 

It tells us that if the 5 year "Hendry trend" continues, the Cubs should be expected to win 1.1 fewer games every year going forward. In year 6, the Cubs' win total projects to ~75.

 

So the guy who drew that perfectly flat line through the datapoints was actually being generous. :(

 

Thank you. And it is worse if you want to say Hendry started in 2003.

[BigbadB]

But its important to remember, the Cubs were 4 games over .500 the night Lee broke his wrist. Ramirez had a horrible first several weeks to the season as did Pierre and Jones.

 

So the Cubs were 4 games over .500 when Lee got hurt and Ramirez was horrible along with Jones and Pierre.

 

Lee got hurt on April 19th. On May 1st, they were still 4 games over .500.

 

With your logic (and small sample size), I suppose we can assume that if Ramirez, Jones and Pierre continued sucking and Lee never came back, they should have finished the season 4 games over .500 since they were able to maintain a 4 game advantage after the Lee injury.

[CubinNY]

But its important to remember, the Cubs were 4 games over .500 the night Lee broke his wrist. Ramirez had a horrible first several weeks to the season as did Pierre and Jones.

 

So the Cubs were 4 games over .500 when Lee got hurt and Ramirez was horrible along with Jones and Pierre.

 

Lee got hurt on April 19th. On May 1st, they were still 4 games over .500.

 

With your logic (and small sample size), I suppose we can assume that if Ramirez, Jones and Pierre continued sucking and Lee never came back, they should have finished the season 4 games over .500 since they were able to maintain a 4 game advantage after the Lee injury.

 

The Cubs have had their share of fluke injures (Lee, Prior x2) but good teams overcome injuries all the time becuase they are built to do it. End of the story.

 

I am hoping that is what Floyd is, an injury insurance policy. My bet is he is the starting LFer becuase the Cubs want a left handed HR threat in the order. Floyd is a steaky hitter and when he is hot he is smoking. When he's cold he's Neifi like without the contact.

 

I don't want to see Murton platooned, but we'll have to wait and see what happens.

[BigbadB]

And I've seen no one touch on Frostwyrm's very valid point that Hendry has been given an open wallet during his tenure to make something happen. His payroll this year is probably 30m more than they had to work with in 2002. Last year, it was at least 20m more than was spent in 2002.

 

Each year Hendry has been here, he's had more money to work with than the year before, and each year he's blown the money in a ridiculous way.

 

I hope he's finally figured it out. Because the teams he put on the field the last few years were pathetic. He set the teams up to fail. He had no back up plans for when a guy like Lee has to miss some time. He never has someone decent available when someone goes down. When Alex Gonzalez got hurt, he was tossing Rey Ordonez out there. When Walker needed to play first, he was tossing Tony Womack out there. When Matt Murton was struggling, he stuck Freddie Bynum out there.

 

And then there are the failures to recognize a problem and fix it. Jacque Jones played everyday. Everyone in the Cubs organization all the way down to the fans knows the guy can't hit a left handed pitcher to save his life.

[BigbadB]

The Cubs have had their share of fluke injures (Lee, Prior x2) but good teams overcome injuries all the time becuase they are built to do it. End of the story.

 

I am hoping that is what Floyd is, an injury insurance policy. My bet is he is the starting LFer becuase the Cubs want a left handed HR threat in the order. Floyd is a steaky hitter and when he is hot he is smoking. When he's cold he's Neifi like without the contact.

 

I don't want to see Murton platooned, but we'll have to wait and see what happens.

 

Yep. Build your team strong enough to overcome injuries. Because injuries are going to happen. Plain and simple.

[CubsWin]

[Extenuating factors? Hendry has had a boatload more cash to work with than his predecessors, which has given him a far greater safety margin for bad luck, so IMO he doesn't deserve any sympathy. Fact is, if the Cubs had stood pat on their $95M payroll, or even increased it to "only" $100M, the Cubs wouldn't have a prayer of contending in 2007. It's a pretty pathetic GM who can't field a contender with a $100M heavily backloaded payroll.

He fielded a contender in '03 with less than a $100M payroll that wasn't heavily backloaded.

 

He then improved upon that team by trading Choi for Lee and acquiring Garciaparra (and Murton) while giving up basically nothing. But injuries to their two star pitchers (that had just completed fully healthy seasons the year before) caused the Cubs to fall just short despite a rapidly declining superstar (.253/.332/.517) in the middle of their line-up. Its not easy to stay in contention while your highest paid player is whithering into a has been right before your eyes, but Hendry managed to keep the Cubs in the playoff hunt in '04 finishing just 3 games out.

 

He re-signed Garciaparra for '05 giving the Cubs their best infield in my lifetime while doing only an okay job of replacing Sosa on the fly. Sosa was declining so fast and was so expensive that, as hard as it may seem, Hendry actually improved the team by acquiring Burnitz over holding onto Sosa. But then Garciaparra got injured very early on and, once again, Wood and Prior got injured and underperformed. That plus Hendry's continuing inability to provide a good enough back up plan for those guys did in the Cubs playoff chances in '05.

 

All that must be taken into consideration when you look at the amount of money the Cubs had to spend. Did Hendry make mistakes? Yes. Do all GMs? Yes. Did Hendry take gambles that didn't work out because of injuries? Yes. Did Hendry have some pretty major injuries to some pretty expensive players? Yes. Did he have his most expensive player plummet after a decent season in '03? Yes. All of those factors effectively lower the Cubs payroll for those two seasons. If we are to be fair and accurate, we must take that into consideration. It wasn't a sure thing that Wood, Prior and Garciaparra would get injured. If they hadn't, it seems logical that the Cubs may have performed like a 90-95 million dollar team should. Don't you think?

[CubsWin]

The Cubs have had their share of fluke injures (Lee, Prior x2) but good teams overcome injuries all the time becuase they are built to do it. End of the story.

 

I am hoping that is what Floyd is, an injury insurance policy. My bet is he is the starting LFer becuase the Cubs want a left handed HR threat in the order. Floyd is a steaky hitter and when he is hot he is smoking. When he's cold he's Neifi like without the contact.

 

I don't want to see Murton platooned, but we'll have to wait and see what happens.

 

Yep. Build your team strong enough to overcome injuries. Because injuries are going to happen. Plain and simple.

I agree that Hendry did a bad job of planning for Wood's continuing injuries, but you have to agree that the Cubs over the last 3 seasons have endured more injuries to major star players than any other team all while enduring the collapse of and trying to fill the void left by their former franchise player and central cog.

[CubsWin]

The Cubs have had their share of fluke injures (Lee, Prior x2) but good teams overcome injuries all the time becuase they are built to do it. End of the story.

End of story? That's wishful thinking.

 

What other team has weathered the collapse of their franchise player and major injuries to other star players, sometimes several at a time, and still got their team into the playoffs?

 

When did Mussina go down? When did Manny go from being a 1.000+ OPS guy to an 800+ OPS guy? Rolen and Pujols have gone down, but not for as long as Lee did and not at the same time as losing Carpenter plus others.

 

Come on, where is the fairness?

[CubsWin]

But its important to remember, the Cubs were 4 games over .500 the night Lee broke his wrist. Ramirez had a horrible first several weeks to the season as did Pierre and Jones.

 

So the Cubs were 4 games over .500 when Lee got hurt and Ramirez was horrible along with Jones and Pierre.

 

Lee got hurt on April 19th. On May 1st, they were still 4 games over .500.

 

With your logic (and small sample size), I suppose we can assume that if Ramirez, Jones and Pierre continued sucking and Lee never came back, they should have finished the season 4 games over .500 since they were able to maintain a 4 game advantage after the Lee injury.

Come on, BBB, that's the kind of response one gives when they don't have much of an argument. I could've played devil's advocate to myself and come up with something better than that. You responded to (and twisted around) one supporting point, not the whole argument.

[YearofDaCubs]

Hendry wins/year

66/2006

79/2005

89/2004

88/2003

67/2002

Pre Hendry wins/year

88/2001

65/2000

67/1999

90/1998

There are two big problems with your graph. One is that you are calling 2002 a "Hendry year" and its totally not. He was signed as GM in July of that year and had little time to alter the make up of the team for the 2nd half of the season. It is really unfair to hold Hendry responsible for any of the team's results in '02. That roster was fully set before he took control. The first chance he really had to put his stamp on the team was the '02-'03 off season, and we all know what happened the following year. But I don't hold him solely responsible for getting the Cubs in the playoffs that year. A lot of things went right that he couldn't possibly have been directly responsible for.

 

Which brings us to the second problem with your graph. It uses the win/loss record as the sole judge of a GM. So many other factors go into whether a team wins or not than just the make up of the 40-man roster. A GM could put together the greatest roster ever and if enough season-ending injuries happen to enough great players, that team will also finish with 66 wins. Extenuating circumstances must be factored in.

 

Last season was a disaster, not so much because of the decisions Hendry made, (the Pierre trade wasn't good) but because of the onslaught of major injuries to the team's best players and some really poor performances by others who had previously performed much better. It's wrong to blame him for everything that happened in '06. Just like it would be wrong to fully credit him for getting the Cubs into the playoffs in '03. The Cubs got on a roll, got some good luck, had guys stay healthy all year. Hendry helped bring about the result in '03, but I think he actually did more in '04 with the additions of Lee and Garciaparra along with a full season from Ramirez. Those moves allowed the Cubs to stay in contention even with Sosa declining sharply in the middle of their line-up.

 

To be fair and accurate, Hendry's win/loss record looks more like this:

 

4 years prior to Hendry:

67 wins in '99

65 wins in '00

88 wins in '01

67 wins in '02

 

4 years with Hendry:

88 wins in '03

89 wins in '04

79 wins in '05

66 wins in '06

 

And to better understand those win totals, one must also include the extenuating factors each year, both the good (like career years) and the bad (like major injuries to major players).

I disagree on some points. I blame Hendry for yet again relying on Prior and Wood to be healthy. He should have taken the approach he did this offseason and stacked the SP a bit. Our offense was bad. Yeah, when Lee was healthy we were above .500 but so what, exactly how long were we above .500 for? I don't remember how many games we played at that point but it wasn't many and we need to finish 162 of them to see the finished product. Even if Lee was healthy and our offense was decent our SP was horrible.

[YearofDaCubs]

[Extenuating factors? Hendry has had a boatload more cash to work with than his predecessors, which has given him a far greater safety margin for bad luck, so IMO he doesn't deserve any sympathy. Fact is, if the Cubs had stood pat on their $95M payroll, or even increased it to "only" $100M, the Cubs wouldn't have a prayer of contending in 2007. It's a pretty pathetic GM who can't field a contender with a $100M heavily backloaded payroll.

He fielded a contender in '03 with less than a $100M payroll that wasn't heavily backloaded.

 

He then improved upon that team by trading Choi for Lee and acquiring Garciaparra (and Murton) while giving up basically nothing. But injuries to their two star pitchers (that had just completed fully healthy seasons the year before) caused the Cubs to fall just short despite a rapidly declining superstar (.253/.332/.517) in the middle of their line-up. Its not easy to stay in contention while your highest paid player is whithering into a has been right before your eyes, but Hendry managed to keep the Cubs in the playoff hunt in '04 finishing just 3 games out.

 

He re-signed Garciaparra for '05 giving the Cubs their best infield in my lifetime while doing only an okay job of replacing Sosa on the fly. Sosa was declining so fast and was so expensive that, as hard as it may seem, Hendry actually improved the team by acquiring Burnitz over holding onto Sosa. But then Garciaparra got injured very early on and, once again, Wood and Prior got injured and underperformed. That plus Hendry's continuing inability to provide a good enough back up plan for those guys did in the Cubs playoff chances in '05.

 

All that must be taken into consideration when you look at the amount of money the Cubs had to spend. Did Hendry make mistakes? Yes. Do all GMs? Yes. Did Hendry take gambles that didn't work out because of injuries? Yes. Did Hendry have some pretty major injuries to some pretty expensive players? Yes. Did he have his most expensive player plummet after a decent season in '03? Yes. All of those factors effectively lower the Cubs payroll for those two seasons. If we are to be fair and accurate, we must take that into consideration. It wasn't a sure thing that Wood, Prior and Garciaparra would get injured. If they hadn't, it seems logical that the Cubs may have performed like a 90-95 million dollar team should. Don't you think?

I will never forgive Hendry for not trading for a relief pitcher or closer before the trade deadline in 04. That is what did us in, and of course Baker boy not trying anybody in the closer's role over Hawkins when a monkey could tell a change needed to be made at closer in that year.

[Danny82]

Not to take anything away from any other posters here, but I just wanted to thank CubsWin for his contributions to this board. His posts always seem to be especially well thought out, well-reasoned, level-headed, and fair. Edited January 26, 2007 by Danny82

[BigbadB]

Not to take anything away from any other posters here, but I just wanted to thank CubsWin for his contributions to this board. His posts are always seem to be especially well thought out, well-reasoned, level-headed, and fair.

 

Agreed. It's fun having someone to argue with.

[BigbadB]

Come on, BBB, that's the kind of response one gives when they don't have much of an argument. I could've played devil's advocate to myself and come up with something better than that. You responded to (and twisted around) one supporting point, not the whole argument.

 

Admittedly, that was the part that struck me as odd. I don't disagree with some of your points, but the 4 game edge when Lee was struck down is a very meaningless stat. Yours and mine. Therefore, I feel it has to be dismissed as part of the argument.

[Handlebar McSkullet]

Come on, BBB, that's the kind of response one gives when they don't have much of an argument. I could've played devil's advocate to myself and come up with something better than that. You responded to (and twisted around) one supporting point, not the whole argument.

 

Admittedly, that was the part that struck me as odd. I don't disagree with some of your points, but the 4 game edge when Lee was struck down is a very meaningless stat. Yours and mine. Therefore, I feel it has to be dismissed as part of the argument.

 

And the winner for the nerdiest thread goes to....... :lol: (By the way, I am in a library studying the tax ramification of term life insurance pay outs.)

 

I always thought of Hendry as the polar opposites of good and bad when looking at free agency and trades. His free agent signing are bad, but for the most part his trades are outstanding. Lets all pause and think of the two trades with the Pirates in '03. I don't think I have heard anything about Floyd starting over Murton. By the way... I love hearing about the crazy cheering Uncle Lou got when he said they need to get Murton as many at bats as possible.

[CubinNY]

Not to take anything away from any other posters here, but I just wanted to thank CubsWin for his contributions to this board. His posts always seem to be especially well thought out, well-reasoned, level-headed, and fair.

 

a .333 average is only good in baseball.

 

He completely minimizes Hendry's mistakes and takes every opportunity to makes excuses for what otherwise has been mediocre management. The Cubs are right where they were 10 years ago.

[frostwyrm]

It wasn't a sure thing that Wood, Prior and Garciaparra would get injured. If they hadn't, it seems logical that the Cubs may have performed like a 90-95 million dollar team should. Don't you think?

Nomar was a known injury risk and the Cubs should've stopped counting on Kerry Wood a whole lot sooner than they did. I admit Prior's situation was unfortunate and unforeseeable, but bear in mind Prior never ate up much payroll. Hendry had enough cash to overcome Prior's loss simply by making the team better in other areas, particularly on offense. If you look forward a couple years Hendry really runs out of excuses. After Z's new deal we'll have about $90M committed in 2009 to 7 players who collectively are a very shaky group. That is utterly indefensible.

[goonys evil twin]

Hendry had enough cash to overcome Prior's loss simply by making the team better in other areas, particularly on offense.

 

That's a key point. He handicaps the team each year by insisting on fielding the least patient team in baseball, so the offense stands no chance of picking up the slack if the pitching suffers any sort of setback.

[CuseCubFan69]

Hendry had enough cash to overcome Prior's loss simply by making the team better in other areas, particularly on offense.

 

That's a key point. He handicaps the team each year by insisting on fielding the least patient team in baseball, so the offense stands no chance of picking up the slack if the pitching suffers any sort of setback.

 

I'm not sure this was your point but I am curious on the effects of quick 1-2-3 innings have on the pitcher that are on offense. They just sit down and then they have to get right back out there again.

[Guest]

After Z's new deal we'll have about $90M committed in 2009 to 7 players who collectively are a very shaky group. That is utterly indefensible.

Z - outstanding

ARam - pretty darned good

Lee - pretty good

Soriano - pretty good

 

DeRosa - meh (pretty minor dollars in the grand scheme)

 

Lilly - meh to blech (but tradeable if he stays healthy)

 

Marquis - double blech

 

The top 4 guys are a pretty solid core, though. Yeah, Soriano's going to be overpaid. The others are worth their money, though.

[goonys evil twin]

After Z's new deal we'll have about $90M committed in 2009 to 7 players who collectively are a very shaky group. That is utterly indefensible.

Z - outstanding

ARam - pretty darned good

Lee - pretty good

Soriano - pretty good

 

DeRosa - meh (pretty minor dollars in the grand scheme)

 

Lilly - meh to blech (but tradeable if he stays healthy)

 

Marquis - double blech

 

The top 4 guys are a pretty solid core, though. Yeah, Soriano's going to be overpaid. The others are worth their money, though.

 

Tim, weren't you the one worrying about Ramirez's age/size down the road. I'd say "collectively very shaky group" is a very accurate description. We're not talking about ARod, Santana, Pujols types.

 

Ramirez would be 31, Lee 33, and no matter how you cut it, he's only had one outstanding year in his career. Soriano is extremely unreliable for a top dollar player. It's a solid core, but not among the elite cores in the game. It does have potential to be a very good collection in 2009, but it is shaky.

[Guest]

After Z's new deal we'll have about $90M committed in 2009 to 7 players who collectively are a very shaky group. That is utterly indefensible.

Z - outstanding

ARam - pretty darned good

Lee - pretty good

Soriano - pretty good

 

DeRosa - meh (pretty minor dollars in the grand scheme)

 

Lilly - meh to blech (but tradeable if he stays healthy)

 

Marquis - double blech

 

The top 4 guys are a pretty solid core, though. Yeah, Soriano's going to be overpaid. The others are worth their money, though.

 

Tim, weren't you the one worrying about Ramirez's age/size down the road. I'd say "collectively very shaky group" is a very accurate description. We're not talking about ARod, Santana, Pujols types.

 

Ramirez would be 31, Lee 33, and no matter how you cut it, he's only had one outstanding year in his career. Soriano is extremely unreliable for a top dollar player. It's a solid core, but not among the elite cores in the game. It does have potential to be a very good collection in 2009, but it is shaky.

Yeah, I'm worried about Ramirez. I think he should still be fine in 2009, but I'm increasingly worried about his performance starting in that year moving forward.

[frostwyrm]

After Z's new deal we'll have about $90M committed in 2009 to 7 players who collectively are a very shaky group. That is utterly indefensible.

Z - outstanding

ARam - pretty darned good

Lee - pretty good

Soriano - pretty good

 

DeRosa - meh (pretty minor dollars in the grand scheme)

 

Lilly - meh to blech (but tradeable if he stays healthy)

 

Marquis - double blech

 

The top 4 guys are a pretty solid core, though. Yeah, Soriano's going to be overpaid. The others are worth their money, though.

 

Well, you do think more highly of this bunch than I do. I don't suppose you think they're worth the whole $90M? That's enough money to pay a whole team.

[Guest]

After Z's new deal we'll have about $90M committed in 2009 to 7 players who collectively are a very shaky group. That is utterly indefensible.

Z - outstanding

ARam - pretty darned good

Lee - pretty good

Soriano - pretty good

 

DeRosa - meh (pretty minor dollars in the grand scheme)

 

Lilly - meh to blech (but tradeable if he stays healthy)

 

Marquis - double blech

 

The top 4 guys are a pretty solid core, though. Yeah, Soriano's going to be overpaid. The others are worth their money, though.

 

Well, you do think more highly of this bunch than I do. I don't suppose you think they're worth the whole $90M? That's enough money to pay a whole team.

My guess is that Lilly & Marquis have been traded away by 2009. That brings the price down to $70 for Zambrano, Ramirez, Lee, Soriano & DeRosa. That doesn't sound nearly as bad to me.