Source: Zito to The Giants

[Soul]

Soriano 8 years, 136 million

Zito 7 years, 126 million

 

i just read that on yahoo, some of you thought we had it bad with Lillys contract

 

The number of years is bad on the Zito contract, the pay is not. With Lilly the number of years isn't so bad but the pay is.

 

Zito will probably perform better given the dimensions of Pac Bell. I really worry about Lilly in the NL Central ballparks.

 

So you think that Zito is worth 18 million a year?

 

That's not what I think. I really don't have anything to say about "worth". Worth is relative to the team's payroll and the player's contribution.

 

I don't really know how to determine worth. That said, I'm not all that upset about the Lilly signing, but I worry about The Cubs signing fly ball pitchers.

 

The only hope I have is that maybe Lilly just never had to learn to pitch more for the ground ball because he was playing in that cavernous dome.

 

I know. Pretty thin.

[KingCubsFan]

Can we just call up Zambrano right now and offer him an identical contract before people start talking 8 years?

[RonnieWooWooSanto]

Lose Schmidt and gain Zito... hmm.....

 

With the possibility of Schmidt haunting the Giants for years to come as a Dodger. Assuming he stays healthy.

[RammyFanny]

That's alot of money for a guy who hasn't topped 88 in many of the games i've watched him.

 

Would anyone really be surprised if Zito @ 17 per and Lilly@ 10 per both put up ERA's right around 4, give or take a few?

[Handlebar McSkullet]

some of you thought we had it bad with Lillys contract

 

We still do.

 

Id rather give Lilly another year then take that ridiculous contract. If you think Lilly is that much worse than Zito right now...

[mhuber92211]

Can we just call up Zambrano right now and offer him an identical contract before people start talking 8 years?

 

NOT WORTH IT.

 

Z is great and all and a fabulous Cub and pitcher but no pitcher is worth this kind of contract.

[Soul]

some of you thought we had it bad with Lillys contract

 

We still do.

 

Id rather give Lilly another year then take that ridiculous contract. If you think Lilly is that much worse than Zito right now...

 

Zito will probably pitch his games though. I'm not sure I can say that about Lilly with the shoulder problems he has had.

 

Still though, everyone is right. It's a staggering amount of money for this guy, almost incomprehensibly high. Zito's solid, but this would appear to be the kind of money a multiple Cy Young award winner would get.

 

Zito won one, but it was in 2002 and he's never approached that level of performance since. His ERA+ that season was 169. The last 3 seasons it has been under 120.

[nilodnayr]

Wonder how Zito will feel in three years when the offensive roster will have completely turned over.

 

I'd think he'd be happy, since the current lineup fails to strike fear into anybody.

 

But with the state of the minor league players and Sabean at the helm, this is about the best it will be in quite a while.

[Soriano12]

Can we just call up Zambrano right now and offer him an identical contract before people start talking 8 years?

 

NOT WORTH IT.

 

Z is great and all and a fabulous Cub and pitcher but no pitcher is worth this kind of contract.

 

Mr. MacPhail, is that you?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

That's alot of money for a guy who hasn't topped 88 in many of the games i've watched him.

 

Would anyone really be surprised if Zito @ 17 per and Lilly@ 10 per both put up ERA's right around 4, give or take a few?

 

I would. Zito will play his home games at AT & T Park, Lilly at Wrigley. Zito will be in the NL West with its share of pitcher's parks, Lilly in the NL Central.

[nilodnayr]

That's alot of money for a guy who hasn't topped 88 in many of the games i've watched him.

 

Would anyone really be surprised if Zito @ 17 per and Lilly@ 10 per both put up ERA's right around 4, give or take a few?

 

Heck, they will both be lucky to put up 4 ERAs

[b_wiggy_66]

Wow! That is huge money for a #2 starter at best. Hendry should have re-signed big Z before this contract the price on him just went up to about this kind of money. I don't think we'll get a home town discount either. It will be amazing to see how much Santana gets when he becomes a FA. I bet the Yanks give him about 8 years $160mil.

[nilodnayr]

The only hope I have is that maybe Lilly just never had to learn to pitch more for the ground ball because he was playing in that cavernous dome.

 

I know. Pretty thin.

 

The Rogers Centre inflates home runs more than Wrigley.

 

Also, I don't see how 328ft foul lines, 375 ft power alleys, and 400 ft CF really qualifies as "cavernous". Thats pretty much the same as the Great American Smallpark.

[UMFan83]

I would have taken Schmidt at 3/47 vs. Zito at 7/126

[nilodnayr]

That's alot of money for a guy who hasn't topped 88 in many of the games i've watched him.

 

Would anyone really be surprised if Zito @ 17 per and Lilly@ 10 per both put up ERA's right around 4, give or take a few?

 

I would. Zito will play his home games at AT & T Park, Lilly at Wrigley. Zito will be in the NL West with its share of pitcher's parks, Lilly in the NL Central.

 

ZiPS projected him at 4.37 ERA as an A.

Edited December 28, 2006 by nilodnayr

[Ding Dong Johnson]

That's alot of money for a guy who hasn't topped 88 in many of the games i've watched him.

 

Would anyone really be surprised if Zito @ 17 per and Lilly@ 10 per both put up ERA's right around 4, give or take a few?

 

I would. Zito will play his home games at AT & T Park, Lilly at Wrigley. Zito will be in the NL West with its share of pitcher's parks, Lilly in the NL Central.

 

Petco is the only true pitcher's park in that division. LA has been well below average, but that's a reflection of the crappy offensive teams they've assembled lately. Dodger Stadium was top 10 last year, and Juan Pierre aside, it should stay that way with the influx of good young offensive talent. AT&T is about average, but Coors and Chase are still 2 of the premier hitter's parks in the game.

[TheDude]

I really worry about Lilly in the NL Central ballparks.

 

Please clarify this comment, if you don't mind. Lilly is coming from the most unfavorable splits of any pitcher on the market, and still you have a concern?

 

30% games against Red Sox/Yankees is a far worse split than pitching in the NL Central, no?

[goonys evil twin]

That's alot of money for a guy who hasn't topped 88 in many of the games i've watched him.

 

Would anyone really be surprised if Zito @ 17 per and Lilly@ 10 per both put up ERA's right around 4, give or take a few?

 

I would. Zito will play his home games at AT & T Park, Lilly at Wrigley. Zito will be in the NL West with its share of pitcher's parks, Lilly in the NL Central.

 

Petco is the only true pitcher's park in that division. LA has been well below average, but that's a reflection of the crappy offensive teams they've assembled lately. Dodger Stadium was top 10 last year, and Juan Pierre aside, it should stay that way with the influx of good young offensive talent. AT&T is about average, but Coors and Chase are still 2 of the premier hitter's parks in the game.

 

A pitcher's park or hitter's park is not a reflection of how good the home team's offense is.

[goonys evil twin]

I really worry about Lilly in the NL Central ballparks.

 

Please clarify this comment, if you don't mind. Lilly is coming from the most unfavorable splits of any pitcher on the market, and still you have a concern?

 

30% games against Red Sox/Yankees is a far worse split than pitching in the NL Central, no?

 

NL Central ballparks, not necessarily the lineups. There are a few launching pads in the NL Central, Cincy, PNC, Minute Maid, and then of course, Wrigley is prone to giving up the long ball. I'm not sure about the new STL park.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

That's alot of money for a guy who hasn't topped 88 in many of the games i've watched him.

 

Would anyone really be surprised if Zito @ 17 per and Lilly@ 10 per both put up ERA's right around 4, give or take a few?

 

I would. Zito will play his home games at AT & T Park, Lilly at Wrigley. Zito will be in the NL West with its share of pitcher's parks, Lilly in the NL Central.

 

Petco is the only true pitcher's park in that division. LA has been well below average, but that's a reflection of the crappy offensive teams they've assembled lately. Dodger Stadium was top 10 last year, and Juan Pierre aside, it should stay that way with the influx of good young offensive talent. AT&T is about average, but Coors and Chase are still 2 of the premier hitter's parks in the game.

 

A pitcher's park or hitter's park is not a reflection of how good the home team's offense is.

 

It's a reflection of how many runs are scored.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

That's alot of money for a guy who hasn't topped 88 in many of the games i've watched him.

 

Would anyone really be surprised if Zito @ 17 per and Lilly@ 10 per both put up ERA's right around 4, give or take a few?

 

I would. Zito will play his home games at AT & T Park, Lilly at Wrigley. Zito will be in the NL West with its share of pitcher's parks, Lilly in the NL Central.

 

Petco is the only true pitcher's park in that division. LA has been well below average, but that's a reflection of the crappy offensive teams they've assembled lately. Dodger Stadium was top 10 last year, and Juan Pierre aside, it should stay that way with the influx of good young offensive talent. AT&T is about average, but Coors and Chase are still 2 of the premier hitter's parks in the game.

 

Is Coors still a premier hitter's park with the humidor (I haven't looked at the numbers)?

[goonys evil twin]

That's alot of money for a guy who hasn't topped 88 in many of the games i've watched him.

 

Would anyone really be surprised if Zito @ 17 per and Lilly@ 10 per both put up ERA's right around 4, give or take a few?

 

I would. Zito will play his home games at AT & T Park, Lilly at Wrigley. Zito will be in the NL West with its share of pitcher's parks, Lilly in the NL Central.

 

Petco is the only true pitcher's park in that division. LA has been well below average, but that's a reflection of the crappy offensive teams they've assembled lately. Dodger Stadium was top 10 last year, and Juan Pierre aside, it should stay that way with the influx of good young offensive talent. AT&T is about average, but Coors and Chase are still 2 of the premier hitter's parks in the game.

 

A pitcher's park or hitter's park is not a reflection of how good the home team's offense is.

 

It's a reflection of how many runs are scored.

 

Yeah, it will show up in the run totals, but not in any sort of pitcher's park rating.

[nilodnayr]

I really worry about Lilly in the NL Central ballparks.

 

Please clarify this comment, if you don't mind. Lilly is coming from the most unfavorable splits of any pitcher on the market, and still you have a concern?

 

30% games against Red Sox/Yankees is a far worse split than pitching in the NL Central, no?

 

Over the last three years Lilly has pitched about equal vs the BoSox/Yanks as compared to is overall #s. In 06 his ERA was .30 higher vs them than his season ERA, in 05 is was .43 lower, and in 04 it was .06 lower.

[nilodnayr]

That's alot of money for a guy who hasn't topped 88 in many of the games i've watched him.

 

Would anyone really be surprised if Zito @ 17 per and Lilly@ 10 per both put up ERA's right around 4, give or take a few?

 

I would. Zito will play his home games at AT & T Park, Lilly at Wrigley. Zito will be in the NL West with its share of pitcher's parks, Lilly in the NL Central.

 

Petco is the only true pitcher's park in that division. LA has been well below average, but that's a reflection of the crappy offensive teams they've assembled lately. Dodger Stadium was top 10 last year, and Juan Pierre aside, it should stay that way with the influx of good young offensive talent. AT&T is about average, but Coors and Chase are still 2 of the premier hitter's parks in the game.

 

Is Coors still a premier hitter's park with the humidor (I haven't looked at the numbers)?

 

Interestingly enough, yup.

[nilodnayr]

That's alot of money for a guy who hasn't topped 88 in many of the games i've watched him.

 

Would anyone really be surprised if Zito @ 17 per and Lilly@ 10 per both put up ERA's right around 4, give or take a few?

 

I would. Zito will play his home games at AT & T Park, Lilly at Wrigley. Zito will be in the NL West with its share of pitcher's parks, Lilly in the NL Central.

 

Petco is the only true pitcher's park in that division. LA has been well below average, but that's a reflection of the crappy offensive teams they've assembled lately. Dodger Stadium was top 10 last year, and Juan Pierre aside, it should stay that way with the influx of good young offensive talent. AT&T is about average, but Coors and Chase are still 2 of the premier hitter's parks in the game.

 

A pitcher's park or hitter's park is not a reflection of how good the home team's offense is.

 

It's a reflection of how many runs are scored.

 

PF = ((homeRS + homeRA)/(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)/(roadG))

 

Doesn't matter how good or bad your offense and pitching are because it normalizes that using road runs scored an allowed.