Fox Sports: Ramirez SIGNS WITH CUBS!

[Bluescale]

I'm sure it was posted and reported elsewhere and I just missed it, but I didn't realize that the new contract gives Aramis an opt-out after the 4th year. Interesting...

[CubsInNC]

Didn't see it in my quick skim over the thread, but per rotoworld Aramis contract breaks down as such:

 

signing bonus - $5mil

2007 - $8mil

2008 - $14mil

2009 - $15.65mil

2010 - $15.75mil

2011 - $14.6mil (player option)

2012 - $16mil ($2mil buyout) team option

 

Aramis was given a full NTC for the 4 guaranteed years. He was given the right to void the team option in 2012, but then voids the buyout as well. The team option becomes guaranteed under certain conditions being met. And he gets $1mil payment of he's traded at any point.

[Sammy Sofa]

Our Aramis is an awesome Aramis.

[C.C.]

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061121&content_id=1745120&vkey=news_chc&fext=.jsp&c_id=chc

 

Nice little article, says he called his agent at 3:30 am right after Cubs lost exclusivity and told him how much he wanted to stay with the cubs.

 

I just shed a tear...

[goonys evil twin]

Didn't see it in my quick skim over the thread, but per rotoworld Aramis contract breaks down as such:

 

signing bonus - $5mil

2007 - $8mil

2008 - $14mil

2009 - $15.65mil

2010 - $15.75mil

2011 - $14.6mil (player option)

2012 - $16mil ($2mil buyout) team option

 

Aramis was given a full NTC for the 4 guaranteed years. He was given the right to void the team option in 2012, but then voids the buyout as well. The team option becomes guaranteed under certain conditions being met. And he gets $1mil payment of he's traded at any point.

 

2007 might not be nearly as expensive as we've been hearing, or maybe Hendry is going to get more players than we every thought about. Budgeting Aramis at $8m this year is low. I'm guessing Soriano's will be back loaded as well.

 

The downside is that in 4 years, we might be making salary dumps.

[C.C.]

Didn't see it in my quick skim over the thread, but per rotoworld Aramis contract breaks down as such:

 

signing bonus - $5mil

2007 - $8mil

2008 - $14mil

2009 - $15.65mil

2010 - $15.75mil

2011 - $14.6mil (player option)

2012 - $16mil ($2mil buyout) team option

 

Aramis was given a full NTC for the 4 guaranteed years. He was given the right to void the team option in 2012, but then voids the buyout as well. The team option becomes guaranteed under certain conditions being met. And he gets $1mil payment of he's traded at any point.

 

2007 might not be nearly as expensive as we've been hearing, or maybe Hendry is going to get more players than we every thought about. Budgeting Aramis at $8m this year is low. I'm guessing Soriano's will be back loaded as well.

 

The downside is that in 4 years, we might be making salary dumps.

 

But he got a signing bonus of 5 million. Which is esentionally 13 million for this year, no?

[JGalt73]

Your scouts are wrong Jim, 28-32 is not the peak.

 

Absolutely - Hendry needs to ignore his scouts. But at least he has a bit of data to support a slower DECLINE in 3rd basemen...

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/images/4464_8.gif

 

Third base is the one position with a definitively late peak--the only position, for example, where a player is on average more valuable at age 29 than he is at 25. The minor trade-off is that third basemen do tend to collapse quickly at 35 or so once their nerves and reflexes are gone.

[jjgman21]

Your scouts are wrong Jim, 28-32 is not the peak.

 

Absolutely - Hendry needs to ignore his scouts. But at least he has a bit of data to support a slower DECLINE in 3rd basemen...

 

 

the thing I wonder about peak analysis is what cosideration is given to the fact that so many players are out of the league before they are 30. in other words, do good players peak later than average players?

 

not scientific by any means, but from years of pouring over conventional stats, it seems to me the very good players tend to peak right about where Hendry said they do, average players peak much younger and are out of baseball at ages when the good players are still putting up fantastic stats.

[goonys evil twin]

Your scouts are wrong Jim, 28-32 is not the peak.

 

Absolutely - Hendry needs to ignore his scouts. But at least he has a bit of data to support a slower DECLINE in 3rd basemen...

 

 

the thing I wonder about peak analysis is what cosideration is given to the fact that so many players are out of the league before they are 30. in other words, do good players peak later than average players?

 

not scientific by any means, but from years of pooring over conventional stats, it seems to me the very good players tend to peak right about where Hendry said they do, average players peak much younger and are out of baseball at ages when the good players are still putting up fantastic stats.

 

It doesn't take very long to go through a list of today's really good players and see the vast majority of them peaked at 26 or 27.

[jjgman21]

 

It doesn't take very long to go through a list of today's really good players and see the vast majority of them peaked at 26 or 27.

 

let's put that to the test. top in OPS from each league

 

Pujols - god I hope you're right.

Howard - we hardly knew ye. he's already 27

Berkman - just had his second best season at age 30

Cabrerra - YTBD. sell the farm!

Beltran - just had his best year at age 29

LaRoche - just about to turn 27, just had by far his best year

Holliday - YTBD. turns 27 in January

Atkins - same as Holliday

Johnson - just had his best season, turned 28 in Sept.

Bay - thus far best season in year he turned 27 in Sept.

Aram - appears to have peaked at age 27

Wright - a pup. about to turn 24

Soriano - either peaked at 27 or 30. this year may determine it.

Delgado - peak between 27-31

Utley - peak now at ages 26-27

 

 

 

Manny - steady level of greatest seasons begining at 27

Ortiz - career best this year, about to turn 31

Thome - best season came when he was 32, second best at 31

Dye and Hafner - both just had best season, both well past 27

Giambi - peak seasons from 29-31

Konerko - just had best season at age 30

Thomas - peaked when he was 27

Mauer - YTBD, just a pup still

Morneau - YTBD, will be 25 this year

Vlad - peak of steady greatness at 24-27

Guillen - peak right now between 29-31

 

 

the bolded players are those I consider proven great hitters. pretty much all of them peaked past age 27. the italics players present an interesting study. all of them peaked around the age you say players peak, but you have to assume they will not get any better from here on out to make the determination that they peaked at 27. I think many of them stand a great chance to keep improving or at least sustaining.

 

I think maybe my theory holds some water and you shouldn't dismiss it out of hand.

[jjgman21]

I looked into the all time greats a few years back when trying to determine when Sosa's decline would begin. the greatest hitters of all time tended to peak around 31-33.

[goonys evil twin]

I think maybe my theory holds some water and you shouldn't dismiss it out of hand.

 

I don't think it holds much water at all. I've seen the general studies, I've looked at many specific players. It's uncanny for how many of them their OPS+ reaches its highest between 26-28. Occasionally you'll get one at 30. It's extremely rare to be any later.

[UMFan83]

I looked into the all time greats a few years back when trying to determine when Sosa's decline would begin. the greatest hitters of all time tended to peak around 31-33.

 

And Bonds peaked from 37-40, what's your point..that theres some kinda outside element to explain why these sluggers are peaking at different times then those normally do.

[jjgman21]

I looked into the all time greats a few years back when trying to determine when Sosa's decline would begin. the greatest hitters of all time tended to peak around 31-33.

 

And Bonds peaked from 37-40, what's your point..that theres some kinda outside element to explain why these sluggers are peaking at different times then those normally do.

 

 

ummmm, there is a context to what I wrote. please look at it before accusing me of not having a point.