Paul Sullivan's rehaul of the Chicago Cubs

[C.C.]

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-0609010199sep01,1,5037072.story?coll=chi-sportscubs-hed

 

His lineup for next year:

 

1. Gary Matthews Jr. CF 2. Ray Durham 2B 3 Derrek Lee 1B 4. Gary Sheffield RF 5. Michael Barrett C 6. Mike Lowell 3B 7. Jacque Jones LF 8. Cesar Izturis SS

[soapy]

Yikes. I just read that and came here to post it as well. I disagree with most of what Sullivan said.

 

1. I think letting Ramirez walk if he opts-out is a huge mistake. The guy started off slow this year. He's still better (and younger) than Lowell or anyone else the Cubs are going to find off the scrap heap.

 

2. I don't see a reason to push Pierre into re-signing now (or ever). I might offer him arbitration, but that's it. I'm not that high on Matthews Jr. either, but wouldn't be against that move for the right price. If I don't see a viable CFer available that fits my needs, I'd call up Pie and upgrade elsewhere.

 

3. On Wood; I'd offer him a small (incentive-based) contract. I don't see the obsession with making Wood "make a decision now".

 

4. Mussina is 38 years old. We don't really need another Maddux-esque signing at this point. I think his contract demands will exceed what he can provide at this point. The rotation that Sullivan suggests isn't very impressive at all.

 

5. IMO, putting Dempster into the rotation is a HORRIBLE idea. I would not consider it.

 

6. I'm not high on Sheffield at this point. His age is catching up with him health-wise. I think there are better alternatives via trade or signing Soriano to play 2B. If he wants to stay in LF, Hendry should at least consider moving Jock to CF (I know that won't happen though). Murton moves to RF in that scenario. Catalanotto would also be high on my wish list if I were Hendry.

[Backtobanks]

Sullivan must be re-signing Baker with that lineup. Bringing in Durham, Mussina, Lowell, etc. makes the team's average age about 35. What happened to the youth movement? Also, he's assuming that these older free agents will be glad to come here on a one or two year contract and hold a spot for a prospect. That's probably not going to happen. Finally, Dempster in the rotation is scary.

[RockTheIvy]

I don't really think that his lineup is possible, but I wouldn't be all that dissapointed with it, and it's probably good enough to win the division. I for one would just like to see Hendry address real problems.

[C.C.]

If you aren't going to sign Pierre and ARAM there should be plenty of money to sign either Lee or Soriano.

[RockTheIvy]

If you aren't going to sign Pierre and ARAM there should be plenty of money to sign either Lee or Soriano.

 

Or at least enough to offer almost enough, like we did for Furcal and Beltran.

[C.C.]

If you aren't going to sign Pierre and ARAM there should be plenty of money to sign either Lee or Soriano.

 

Or at least enough to offer almost enough, like we did for Furcal and Beltran.

 

Right! We always place 2nd or 3rd in the Free Agent hunt every year.

[RockTheIvy]

If you aren't going to sign Pierre and ARAM there should be plenty of money to sign either Lee or Soriano.

 

Or at least enough to offer almost enough, like we did for Furcal and Beltran.

 

Right! We always place 2nd or 3rd in the Free Agent hunt every year.

 

Unless Jeff Blauser is out there.

[RynoRules]

My initial reaction to this was not positive, but then I saw these 06' stats:

 

Durham: .295 .363 .523

 

So now I think we should get Durham, keep ARam, and get either Sheff or Andruw Jones.

[C.C.]

My initial reaction to this was not positive, but then I saw these 06' stats:

 

Durham: .295 .363 .523

 

So now I think we should get Durham, keep ARam, and get either Sheff or Andruw Jones.

 

Someone else mentioned Durham a month or so ago and I laughed until I checked out his stats. It's very impressive!

[RynoRules]

My initial reaction to this was not positive, but then I saw these 06' stats:

 

Durham: .295 .363 .523

 

So now I think we should get Durham, keep ARam, and get either Sheff or Andruw Jones.

 

Someone else mentioned Durham a month or so ago and I laughed until I checked out his stats. It's very impressive!

 

The only thing that bothers me about Ray is that he will be 35 next year and therefore its more likely than not that this year's production won't be sustained. That said, if he were willing to take a two year deal for 10 mill, I'd have to think long and hard about it.

[soapy]

My initial reaction to this was not positive, but then I saw these 06' stats:

 

Durham: .295 .363 .523

 

So now I think we should get Durham, keep ARam, and get either Sheff or Andruw Jones.

 

Someone else mentioned Durham a month or so ago and I laughed until I checked out his stats. It's very impressive!

 

My biggest beef with Sullivan's plan isn't the Durham acquisition. The rotation he suggests is terrible. Also, replacing Ramirez with Lowell is a big mistake, IMO (not to mention that Lowell likely has no interest in being a stopgap). Lastly, I'm not interested in Sheffield unless his price tag is much smaller than I expect it to be.

[TruffleShuffle]

Mussina will not be a Cub. He's an East Coast guy and basically will not sign with a team unless it's in the Northeast or Mid-Atlantic.

[RynoRules]

My initial reaction to this was not positive, but then I saw these 06' stats:

 

Durham: .295 .363 .523

 

So now I think we should get Durham, keep ARam, and get either Sheff or Andruw Jones.

 

Someone else mentioned Durham a month or so ago and I laughed until I checked out his stats. It's very impressive!

 

My biggest beef with Sullivan's plan isn't the Durham acquisition. The rotation he suggests is terrible. Also, replacing Ramirez with Lowell is a big mistake, IMO (not to mention that Lowell likely has no interest in being a stopgap). Lastly, I'm not interested in Sheffield unless his price tag is much smaller than I expect it to be.

 

Agreed on all counts. I like Sheff's production, but I can't imagine that he will take anything less than a two year contract for a minimum of 10 million per. And teh only way I'd be comfortable with slotting Lowell in for ARam is if we replace Pierre with Andruw Jones. Under that hyopthetical scenario, the lineup would like this:

 

Durham

Murton

Lee

A Jones

Barrett

Lowell

J. Jones

Izturis

 

Not the lineup that I'd prefer (I'd rather keep ARam and get Andruw), but not too shabby either.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I like the idea of getting Sheffield. I'd prefer that getting him would push Jones to CF however.

 

Signing Durham is interesting. It's not a bad move at the right price. I'd prefer to pursue a trade for Giles first.

 

The Cubs have a lot of internal options for the rotation. Other than signing Schmidt or Zito, I don't see the need to go get pitching.

 

I don't advocate letting Ramirez walk at all. If he walks, I'd almost think we should focus on rebuilding rather than picking up Sheffield, Durham, Mussina types.

[C.C.]

I like the idea of getting Sheffield. I'd prefer that getting him would push Jones to CF however.

 

Signing Durham is interesting. It's not a bad move at the right price. I'd prefer to pursue a trade for Giles first.

 

The Cubs have a lot of internal options for the rotation. Other than signing Schmidt or Zito, I don't see the need to go get pitching.

 

I don't advocate letting Ramirez walk at all. If he walks, I'd almost think we should focus on rebuilding rather than picking up Sheffield, Durham, Mussina types.

 

I disagree...You need (at least) another Vet starter.

[bobbyd20]

Letting Ramirez walk is not an option in my opinion. When Hendry didn't move him at the deadline for prospects, that indicated to me that he was going to re-negotiate his deal.

 

Losing Ramirez's production without getting anything in return (especially given the Cubs inability to spend the left-over dollars wisely) would be suicide.

[C.C.]

Letting Ramirez walk is not an option in my opinion. When Hendry didn't move him at the deadline for prospects, that indicated to me that he was going to re-negotiate his deal.

 

Losing Ramirez's production without getting anything in return (especially given the Cubs inability to spend the left-over dollars wisely) would be suicide.

 

Great point! It would be terrible to lose him and get nothing out of it.

[RockTheIvy]

Letting Ramirez walk is not an option in my opinion. When Hendry didn't move him at the deadline for prospects, that indicated to me that he was going to re-negotiate his deal.

 

Losing Ramirez's production without getting anything in return (especially given the Cubs inability to spend the left-over dollars wisely) would be suicide.

 

Don't worry, we'll just move Barrett to left field and get a defensive catcher. World Series champs in '07.

[JGalt73]

Fun with PECOTA:

 

2007 VORP predictions from ’06 PECOTA

 

1. Gary Matthews Jr. CF (age 32, 5.7 VORP)

2. Ray Durham 2B (age 35, 19.5 VORP)

3. Derrek Lee 1B (age 31, 40.3 VORP)

4. Gary Sheffield RF (age 38, 34.8 VORP)

5. Michael Barrett C (age 30, 13.3 VORP)

6. Mike Lowell 3B (age 33, 12.4 VORP)

7. Jacque Jones LF (age 32, 6.1 VORP)

8. Cesar Izturis SS (age 27, 6.3 VORP)

 

Total projected 2007 VORP above: 138.4

 

 

Last year's 2006 projection: 164.9 VORP (Pierre, Walker, Lee, Aramis, Jones, Murton , Barrett, Cedeno)

 

In theory, the offense of team Sullivan is 2.5 wins worse than this year's lineup was supposed to be.

 

However, it may be better than the current 2006 team VORP (all players) of 93.8, currently good for 26/30 in the league.

[RockTheIvy]

Of course we are all aware of where VORP places on JH's stat sheet. :cry:

 

Let's sign Jeff Suppan!

[Warpticon]

I like Durham, and would definitely advocate getting him as a stopgap. Keeps the Cubs from rushing Patterson, who is close but not there yet (although he has been tearing up AAA ball in very limited time, so he may be closer than suspected), but doesn't block him long-term. I'd offer a one year deal for decent money, and hopefully nobody's dumb enough to offer him a long-term deal. He'd eliminate the "need" to sign a stereotypical leadoff guy (pierre, roberts) for CF, giving the Cubs better options. I would then move Jones to CF and shoot for a big bat to play LF or RF, keeping Murton at the other position (RF seems more feasible, naturally). Alternately, making a play for either Giles or A. Jones from ATL, since both seem to be available in the right deal. And it is imperative to keep Ramirez.

[RockTheIvy]

I like Durham, and would definitely advocate getting him as a stopgap. Keeps the Cubs from rushing Patterson, who is close but not there yet (although he has been tearing up AAA ball in very limited time, so he may be closer than suspected), but doesn't block him long-term. I'd offer a one year deal for decent money, and hopefully nobody's dumb enough to offer him a long-term deal. He'd eliminate the "need" to sign a stereotypical leadoff guy (pierre, roberts) for CF, giving the Cubs better options. I would then move Jones to CF and shoot for a big bat to play LF or RF, keeping Murton at the other position (RF seems more feasible, naturally). Alternately, making a play for either Giles or A. Jones from ATL, since both seem to be available in the right deal. And it is imperative to keep Ramirez.

 

If they got A. Jones, what do we do with our own Jock Jones?

[Magnetic Curses]

What happened to the youth movement?

 

we don't have any prospects. murton could be good but cedeno is terrible, the only other option i could see is bringing moore up to play third and using the ramirez money on pitching.

[Backtobanks]

With Sullivan's revamp, you had better hope that they stay healthy. With Sheffield, Mussina, Durham, and Lowell in addition to Prior and Wood on the team, we might lead the league in players going to the DL.