Has Murton earned 2007 spot?

[RynoRules]

depending upon who the new manager will be, Murton could very well be our #2 hitter.

 

It shouldn't take a genius to see that's where he should be hitting.

 

Agreed. Having a guy who actually takes pitches and walks behind Pierre and in front of Lee, Tejada (assuming my abve scenario), and ARam would be very good. The really good part of my scenario, IMO, is you have guy like Barrett - with .300 / .380 / .450 potential - hitting in the six hole.

[Nobody youd want to know]

I'd love to see this lineup:

 

Loretta

Barrett/Murton

DLee

Ramirez

CLee (or Sheffield)

Jones/Barrett

Pie

Izturis

P

 

Now THAT lineup has the elements - high OBP/OPS 1 thru 5 or 6, and occasional productivity at the bottom, plus some smart ballplayers with an excellent D at most positions, while not taking a whole lot more salary overall, offset by the loss of Maddux, Pierre and Wood's current salary. Get the Trib to up the overall budget enough to land Schmidt and/or Zito and we'd be back in the game.

 

That's a great lineup, but it would most likely preclude us signing Schmidt or Zito. Even taking away Maddux and Wood ($20m total, I think), you add CLee at something like $13m, Loretta's going to get $4m MINIMUM, Izturis gets $4.15m, Ramirez likely will get a boost, then factor in the raises Z, Prior and some of the young'uns will get, and you're already $7-$10m OVER this years' budget.

 

The Cubs absolutely HAVE to play 2 or 3 of Murton/Cedeno/Theriot/Fontenot in order to afford ANY free agents. And that means they have to deal Izturis. Hendry really painted himself into a corner with that trade.

 

Prior's getting a raise? I realize he is eligible for arbitration but what has he done to earn a raise?

 

I'll bet you $100 he gets a raise.

 

You ever hear of young, projectible #1 starters NOT getting a raise?

 

He'll get a raise based on previous years plus potential.

[Nobody youd want to know]

The Cubs absolutely HAVE to play 2 or 3 of Murton/Cedeno/Theriot/Fontenot in order to afford ANY free agents. And that means they have to deal Izturis. Hendry really painted himself into a corner with that trade.

 

I don't think that's true. An FA starter will essentially replace Wood's salary. If you let 1 of them play(Pie replacing Pierre's 5.75 mil is my choice), let Soto replace Blanco, and then you've freed up another 6-7 million. Add in the fact that we had money to spend last year that we may be able to use again, and the fact/hope that a budget crunch would force trades of Neifi and/or Rusch, I think we can add a big contract player and 2 intermediate ones if we need to.

 

So a budget crunch is going to force us to trade Neifi and Rusch, but we'll also have money left over from last year? Putting aside the obvious contradiction, any trade of Neifi or Rusch is most likely going to mean WE'RE picking up salary. Who's going to take either at their salaries?

 

The best we can hope for is that the Cubs DFA Rusch and eat his salary, less the league minimum any team would have to pay if any were stupid enough to take him. Same with Neifi, but I highly doubt he gets DFA'd.

 

And speaking on money left over, think like a corporation. If you as CFO allocate $X to one of your sudsidiaries, and they don't spend all of it, do you give them MORE next year? Heck, no. If you're like 99% of the corporations in the world, you thank them, then give them LESS the next year.

 

Now, granted, the Cubs are a special kind of subsidiary, so you probably don't CUT their budget. But if you're a corporation in serious financial difficulty like the Tribune, you most certainly don't give back last years leftovers.

[baseball7897]

My suggestion, would be to go into next year with Pie in CF, then use LF and 2B as the top 2 spots in the order. I'd target Catalanotto and Loretta. Neither will cost a fortune, neither will be big names or extremely sought after that will inflate their cost beyond reason. One is right handed, the other left. Most importantly, their cost will be low enough to make sure we get a good SP, whether it's making sure we have the money to get Schmidt, or the money to take on the contract of someone we trade for(not counting on Murton or Cedeno to start adds to our trading depth as well). So, the finished product is:

 

Loretta

Catalanotto

Lee

Ramirez

Barrett

Jones

Pie

Izturis

 

Im not sure you could win with that lineup. Loretta would be your leadoff man. I guess the Cubs could go the Mark Grudzielanek route again. I wish I had the paper in front of me where Loretta in 03 was quoted "I wont except a trade to the Cubs". Loretta will be 36 in 07, and im not sure he would sign a deal to be the leadoff man. He excells in the 2 spot.

 

Catalanotto is like having Murton in LF for a full year. Not enough production for a corner outfield spot.

 

The Middle of the lineup is going to be horrible if Lee goes down again. Same problem they are having this season.

 

Pie in CF, probably means your not expecting to win in 07. I prefer to package Pie, for a Impact bat, or proven SP.

 

The Schimdt idea scares the crap out of me. People on here talk about pitchers being overworked, this guy is always seemingly throwing over 100 pitches in a a game. Felipe Alou probably is worse than Baker when it comes to managing a SP. Im not sure I would give him a 3 year deal, to a 33 year old pitcher, who has so much wear and tear on his arm. If your going to go the cheap way for your lineup, and spend it on a SP, sign Zito. He would be 5 years younger than Schmdit. Zito will make 30-35 starts a year, and pitch over 200 innings each year. If im spending money on a SP, im signing Zito.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Cubs absolutely HAVE to play 2 or 3 of Murton/Cedeno/Theriot/Fontenot in order to afford ANY free agents. And that means they have to deal Izturis. Hendry really painted himself into a corner with that trade.

 

I don't think that's true. An FA starter will essentially replace Wood's salary. If you let 1 of them play(Pie replacing Pierre's 5.75 mil is my choice), let Soto replace Blanco, and then you've freed up another 6-7 million. Add in the fact that we had money to spend last year that we may be able to use again, and the fact/hope that a budget crunch would force trades of Neifi and/or Rusch, I think we can add a big contract player and 2 intermediate ones if we need to.

 

So a budget crunch is going to force us to trade Neifi and Rusch, but we'll also have money left over from last year? Putting aside the obvious contradiction, any trade of Neifi or Rusch is most likely going to mean WE'RE picking up salary. Who's going to take either at their salaries?

 

The best we can hope for is that the Cubs DFA Rusch and eat his salary, less the league minimum any team would have to pay if any were stupid enough to take him. Same with Neifi, but I highly doubt he gets DFA'd.

 

And speaking on money left over, think like a corporation. If you as CFO allocate $X to one of your sudsidiaries, and they don't spend all of it, do you give them MORE next year? Heck, no. If you're like 99% of the corporations in the world, you thank them, then give them LESS the next year.

 

Now, granted, the Cubs are a special kind of subsidiary, so you probably don't CUT their budget. But if you're a corporation in serious financial difficulty like the Tribune, you most certainly don't give back last years leftovers.

 

I should have worded that better so it didn't appear to be a contradiction. My point was that it shouldn't be a problem to make the necessary acquisitions, but IF money became an issue, then I think it's likely Hendry would dump the heavier bench contracts of Rusch and/or Neifi to make sure he added the starting position player he wants, especially since in that scenario he'd have Cedeno to take over for Neifi, and obviously an arm available to take Rusch's spot.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Im not sure you could win with that lineup. Loretta would be your leadoff man. I guess the Cubs could go the Mark Grudzielanek route again. I wish I had the paper in front of me where Loretta in 03 was quoted "I wont except a trade to the Cubs". Loretta will be 36 in 07, and im not sure he would sign a deal to be the leadoff man. He excells in the 2 spot.

 

Why wouldn't Loretta work in the leadoff spot? Because he doesn't fit the stereotype? He has almost the exact same numbers hitting 1st (.298/.365/.403/.768) as he does 2nd (.300/.360/.402/.763). If he doesn't want to come here, then that's okay, it's not intensely difficult to get a 2B with a good enough OBP to leadoff or hit 2nd(Catalanotto can do both too).

 

Catalanotto is like having Murton in LF for a full year. Not enough production for a corner outfield spot.

 

Catalanotto is better than Murton. His career OPS is around .800, which Murton hasn't been able to reach with a favorable platoon and a hot 5 week stretch. He's a better player. Not enough for a corner OF spot? Maybe, but remember like I outlined in the truncated part of my post, we are forced out of the ideal by the awful Izturis and Jones deals.

 

The Middle of the lineup is going to be horrible if Lee goes down again. Same problem they are having this season.

 

The Cardinals middle of the order looks pretty crummy if you take out Pujols too. Of course you look worse when you take out the best hitter. I'd like to get a better hitter and force Barrett down to 6th, but Hendry's density has precluded that with putting the subpar Jones in RF.

 

Pie in CF, probably means your not expecting to win in 07. I prefer to package Pie, for a Impact bat, or proven SP.

 

Not expecting to win? Pie provides cost effectiveness near the bottom of the order, solid defense, and potential to hit well and develop at a young age. If you want to trade him that's okay, it's not an idea without merit, but the idea that playing Pie is somehow a forfeiture of '07 is a baseless one.

 

The Schimdt idea scares the crap out of me. People on here talk about pitchers being overworked, this guy is always seemingly throwing over 100 pitches in a a game. Felipe Alou probably is worse than Baker when it comes to managing a SP. Im not sure I would give him a 3 year deal, to a 33 year old pitcher, who has so much wear and tear on his arm. If your going to go the cheap way for your lineup, and spend it on a SP, sign Zito. He would be 5 years younger than Schmdit. Zito will make 30-35 starts a year, and pitch over 200 innings each year. If im spending money on a SP, im signing Zito.

 

I understand why people get apprehensive about Schmidt, but I think he's the best option available. For all the overuse talk he's made at least 29 starts in 5 straight years. Maybe the overuse accelerates his decline, or maybe he's just an exception that has been able to take the abuse. Either way, when healthy he's better than Zito, who is going to get a monumental contract due to his partially undeserved reputation. Also, you'll also note that I didn't definitively say to go after Schmidt, it was just one outlet for the money that was allocated to get a very good SP.

[Backtobanks]

It wouldn't surprize me if Murton or Cedeno is used as part of a trade package. A package of Cedeno/Murton, Hill/Guzman/Marshall/Marmol, and Pie might be the beginning of discussions with the Marlins about Cabrera. As for Tejada, I'm not sure any deal is going to convince Angelos to trade Tejada (look at the rumored deals he turned down).

[sporrer17]

Murton is capable of driving in runs. He was hitting in the middle of the order throughout most of his minor league career. He's got a high enough average and OBP to even consider hitting 1st or 2nd if we can get some pop out of 2b/CF.

 

Murton has been hitting 7th a lot this year, not many RBI chances there, especially with our team. He's been great hitting 6th (.368/.448/.500/.948 with a 10/8 BB-K ratio and 13 RBI in 76 AB). He's a .342 hitter "close and late". He's got a .944 OPS with runner on 3rd, less than 2 outs.

 

I don't think the run-producing spots are unfamiliar to Matt. He hit 4th once earlier this year, and he went 2-4 with a HR and 2 RBIs. He even hit 3rd (1-3, 2b, HBP). He doesn't seem to be bothered by hitting in those spots, and in fact has thrived in the 3-6 spots.

 

In 134 ABs between 3rd and 6th in the lineup, Murton is hitting .336. In 154 ABs hitting 2nd, 7th, 8th, or 9th...he's hitting .253.

 

Again, Murton's lack of power (which *WILL* come around by 2008) is not an issue if we are getting ANY pop out of 2b/SS/CF at all. Not to mention, we haven't had a lot from 1b either, since Lee's been out.

[Illini Iceman]

I hate to agree with Dusty about something, but I think he is right on when he says that fans need to be more patient with the young players and that they are not always finished products when they get the the big leagues.

 

Murton looks very good to me. He has good plate discipline, drives the ball to the opposite field, and is once again knocking at the door of .300 in BA.

 

It would be very short sighted IMO to give up on him to get a player like Catalanotto. The only way I see that he should not be given more time to develop is if they can get an impact middle of the lineup power hitter for LF.

 

However, my preference would be for Hendry to find more offense in two of the three positions of CF, SS and 2B and then you could leave Murton alone in LF.

 

It may be wishful thinking, but Andruw Jones in CF or Tejada at SS would be huge.

[sporrer17]

Ideally we'd go out and get some pop at 2b/CF/ss...but to be fair, there won't be a ton of power hitting middle IFs or CFs available.

 

If Andruw Jones does become available by some stroke of luck...go do what it takes to get him, including dealing Pie. Same for Tejada. If you can add a SS/CF capable of hitting 3-5, you do it. Then with Izturis/Cedeno filling out the other IF spot, and Murton in LF...you may have yourself a team. I'd prefer the power to come from the IF though, to allow Pierre to stick around.

 

Hendry is going to have to get creative.

 

Oh...and if Phil Nevin wants to return knowing he will be used in a platoon role (with Jacque Jones) and to backup 1b/LF/C/3b...I want him back, no questions asked. If we decide during the year that Murton's lack of pop is absolutely killing us, plug Nevin in there. He could be huge off the bench.

[sporrer17]

If you look at the numbers, we've had 105 HR on the year as a club. 13 have come from players at 1b...just ASSUMING Lee is healthy and has 25 by this point (not unrealistic), there's an extra 12 HRs, putting us at 117 and officially right smack dab in the middle of the pack as far as HRs go. Add that to the fact that we get no power from CF/2b/SS...and if you can even get 10-15 out of ONE of those spots, we'd probably be closing in on the top 10...

 

This can't all be put on Murton.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Power is more than home runs.

 

Murton hasn't shown the ability to hit for a very high IsoP at any point in his minor league career. Therefore it's probably asking a bit too much that he suddenly develop more power, considering he was a college draftee that wasn't young for his levels

[baseball7897]

Catalanotto is better than Murton. His career OPS is around .800, which Murton hasn't been able to reach with a favorable platoon and a hot 5 week stretch. He's a better player. Not enough for a corner OF spot? Maybe, but remember like I outlined in the truncated part of my post, we are forced out of the ideal by the awful Izturis and Jones deals.

 

If you ask me Murton can put up the same kind of numbers Catalanotto can. They are very similar players. Both players will have a high OBP, hit around .300, and they both will hit for the same kind of power numbers. Why not let Murton have the LF job? Dosent make sense to sign a player the Cubs already have.

[RonnieWooWooSanto]

My suggestion, would be to go into next year with Pie in CF, then use LF and 2B as the top 2 spots in the order. I'd target Catalanotto and Loretta. Neither will cost a fortune, neither will be big names or extremely sought after that will inflate their cost beyond reason. One is right handed, the other left. Most importantly, their cost will be low enough to make sure we get a good SP, whether it's making sure we have the money to get Schmidt, or the money to take on the contract of someone we trade for(not counting on Murton or Cedeno to start adds to our trading depth as well). So, the finished product is:

 

Loretta

Catalanotto

Lee

Ramirez

Barrett

Jones

Pie

Izturis

 

Im not sure you could win with that lineup. Loretta would be your leadoff man. I guess the Cubs could go the Mark Grudzielanek route again. I wish I had the paper in front of me where Loretta in 03 was quoted "I wont except a trade to the Cubs". Loretta will be 36 in 07, and im not sure he would sign a deal to be the leadoff man. He excells in the 2 spot.

 

Catalanotto is like having Murton in LF for a full year. Not enough production for a corner outfield spot.

 

The Middle of the lineup is going to be horrible if Lee goes down again. Same problem they are having this season.

 

Pie in CF, probably means your not expecting to win in 07. I prefer to package Pie, for a Impact bat, or proven SP.

 

The Schimdt idea scares the crap out of me. People on here talk about pitchers being overworked, this guy is always seemingly throwing over 100 pitches in a a game. Felipe Alou probably is worse than Baker when it comes to managing a SP. Im not sure I would give him a 3 year deal, to a 33 year old pitcher, who has so much wear and tear on his arm. If your going to go the cheap way for your lineup, and spend it on a SP, sign Zito. He would be 5 years younger than Schmdit. Zito will make 30-35 starts a year, and pitch over 200 innings each year. If im spending money on a SP, im signing Zito.

 

Grudzielanek and Hendry had a pretty nasty parting when Grudz left the Cubs. I don't see an apology forth coming when Grudzielanek will have other teams willing to sign him. Plus, I'm not sure it would even be wise to get him considering he is 36 and his numbers have declined the past three years.

 

All indications are that Schmidt would like to go home and pitch in Seattle. If he goes elsewhere, I would think it would be to one of the winning large market teams (Yanks, Mets, or Red Sox).

 

Zito is the top pitching free agent out there this off season. Yankees, Mets, and Angels seem to be the possible teams. Why would he want to come to Chicago especially after this miserable 2006 season? I don't see the Cubs out spending those other 3 teams.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Catalanotto is better than Murton. His career OPS is around .800, which Murton hasn't been able to reach with a favorable platoon and a hot 5 week stretch. He's a better player. Not enough for a corner OF spot? Maybe, but remember like I outlined in the truncated part of my post, we are forced out of the ideal by the awful Izturis and Jones deals.

 

If you ask me Murton can put up the same kind of numbers Catalanotto can. They are very similar players. Both players will have a high OBP, hit around .300, and they both will hit for the same kind of power numbers. Why not let Murton have the LF job? Dosent make sense to sign a player the Cubs already have.

 

Because in all likelihood he won't put up numbers as good as Catalanotto.

 

EDIT: Furthermore, getting that production virtually guaranteed (while Murton is more likely to vary) also goes a long way in building the rest of the line.

Edited August 6, 2006 by Transmogrified Tiger

[baseball7897]

I dont want Grudzielanek on the cubs. I was just, having Loretta as the leadoff hitter will be like having Grudzielanek leading off. If you sign Loretta, he would excell in the 2 spot. Just like how Grudzielanek seemed more confident batting in the 2 hole.

 

I wouldnt mind Loretta on the Cubs, but I wouldnt have him leading off. Pierre and Loretta at the top of the order would be nice.

[RonnieWooWooSanto]

I dont want Grudzielanek on the cubs. I was just, having Loretta as the leadoff hitter will be like having Grudzielanek leading off. If you sign Loretta, he would excell in the 2 spot. Just like how Grudzielanek seemed more confident batting in the 2 hole.

 

I wouldnt mind Loretta on the Cubs, but I wouldnt have him leading off. Pierre and Loretta at the top of the order would be nice.

 

Well, no sense in talking about Loretta since you said that you read he is unwilling to come to the Cubs.

[baseball7897]

I dont want Grudzielanek on the cubs. I was just, having Loretta as the leadoff hitter will be like having Grudzielanek leading off. If you sign Loretta, he would excell in the 2 spot. Just like how Grudzielanek seemed more confident batting in the 2 hole.

 

I wouldnt mind Loretta on the Cubs, but I wouldnt have him leading off. Pierre and Loretta at the top of the order would be nice.

 

Well, no sense in talking about Loretta since you said that you read he is unwilling to come to the Cubs.

 

Loretta does not want to go to the cubs, because he thinks they will never win a world series. After 98 years of not winning a world series, I dont blame him.

[jmajew]

Power is more than home runs.

 

Murton hasn't shown the ability to hit for a very high IsoP at any point in his minor league career. Therefore it's probably asking a bit too much that he suddenly develop more power, considering he was a college draftee that wasn't young for his levels

 

Can you explain IsoP to me?

 

Thanks

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Power is more than home runs.

 

Murton hasn't shown the ability to hit for a very high IsoP at any point in his minor league career. Therefore it's probably asking a bit too much that he suddenly develop more power, considering he was a college draftee that wasn't young for his levels

 

Can you explain IsoP to me?

 

Thanks

 

IsoP = SLG - AVG

 

Basically a ratio extra bases per at bat. For example, if a guy goes 11 for 30 with 3 doubles, then he'll have a .367 AVG and a .467 SLG. If another guy goes 8 for 30 with 3 doubles and a home run, he'll have a .267 AVG and a .467 SLG. Even though it's obvious the second player hit for more power, they have identical SLG. However, if you look at IsoP, you can see the first player (.100 IsoP) is less powerful than the second (.200).

[Illini Iceman]

Catalanotto is better than Murton. His career OPS is around .800, which Murton hasn't been able to reach with a favorable platoon and a hot 5 week stretch. He's a better player. Not enough for a corner OF spot? Maybe, but remember like I outlined in the truncated part of my post, we are forced out of the ideal by the awful Izturis and Jones deals.

 

If you ask me Murton can put up the same kind of numbers Catalanotto can. They are very similar players. Both players will have a high OBP, hit around .300, and they both will hit for the same kind of power numbers. Why not let Murton have the LF job? Dosent make sense to sign a player the Cubs already have.

 

Because in all likelihood he won't put up numbers as good as Catalanotto.

 

EDIT: Furthermore, getting that production virtually guaranteed (while Murton is more likely to vary) also goes a long way in building the rest of the line.

 

So in other words you prefer established veterans to giving the kids a shot? Interesting.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Catalanotto is better than Murton. His career OPS is around .800, which Murton hasn't been able to reach with a favorable platoon and a hot 5 week stretch. He's a better player. Not enough for a corner OF spot? Maybe, but remember like I outlined in the truncated part of my post, we are forced out of the ideal by the awful Izturis and Jones deals.

 

If you ask me Murton can put up the same kind of numbers Catalanotto can. They are very similar players. Both players will have a high OBP, hit around .300, and they both will hit for the same kind of power numbers. Why not let Murton have the LF job? Dosent make sense to sign a player the Cubs already have.

 

Because in all likelihood he won't put up numbers as good as Catalanotto.

 

EDIT: Furthermore, getting that production virtually guaranteed (while Murton is more likely to vary) also goes a long way in building the rest of the line.

 

So in other words you prefer established veterans to giving the kids a shot? Interesting.

 

Not quite. I'd rather let Pie be a cost effective option with potential for improvement than Murton, especially since Pie plays a position where less offense is needed. I'd love to see what Murton can do, but Hendry's previous misadventures have made that impossible if we want a capable offense.

Edited August 6, 2006 by Transmogrified Tiger

[jmajew]

Power is more than home runs.

 

Murton hasn't shown the ability to hit for a very high IsoP at any point in his minor league career. Therefore it's probably asking a bit too much that he suddenly develop more power, considering he was a college draftee that wasn't young for his levels

 

Can you explain IsoP to me?

 

Thanks

 

IsoP = SLG - AVG

 

Basically a ratio extra bases per at bat. For example, if a guy goes 11 for 30 with 3 doubles, then he'll have a .367 AVG and a .467 SLG. If another guy goes 8 for 30 with 3 doubles and a home run, he'll have a .267 AVG and a .467 SLG. Even though it's obvious the second player hit for more power, they have identical SLG. However, if you look at IsoP, you can see the first player (.100 IsoP) is less powerful than the second (.200).

 

Thanks, now i won't feel like an idiot when i see people talking about it.