Cy Zambrano?

[Jazz]

Zambrano is a horse.

[soccer10k]

ESPN Cy Predictor now has Wagner easily ahead of Webb and Z.

[AlwaysaCub]

For a reliever to win the Cy Young, they must perform much better than Wagner's 2.24 ERA. This is especially true this year, when he'll be compared to Pappelbon, who has been much better. Anyway, that formula, if you've read the Neyer/James guide to pitchers, is by their own admission not always accurate.

[Jazz]

ESPN Cy Predictor now has Wagner easily ahead of Webb and Z.

 

Wagner has almost as many blown saves as our own ryan dempster, and is not having an eric gagne 2003 type year by any means. No way is he even top 5.

[soccer10k]

For a reliever to win the Cy Young, they must perform much better than Wagner's 2.24 ERA. This is especially true this year, when he'll be compared to Pappelbon, who has been much better. Anyway, that formula, if you've read the Neyer/James guide to pitchers, is by their own admission not always accurate.

 

I have not read the Neyer/James book but I do agree with you and was not implying that the Cy Predictor is completely accurate. I do not think relievers should win the Cy at all. I was just saying that Z and Webb are much closer now than they were a month ago. I still have Webb first and Z second.

[wolf stansson]

Whoever I argued with at the beginning of the season that Brandon Webb would never contend for the Cy Young should feel free to step forward so I can recognize their superiority.

[Mephistopheles]

VORP:

 

1. 56.1 John Smoltz

2. 54.8 Carlos Zambrano

3. 54.5 Brandon Webb

4. 54.2 Chris Carpenter

5. 52.4 Roy Oswalt

 

WARP*:

 

1. 7.2 Carlos Zambrano

1. 7.2 John Smoltz

3. 7.1 Brandon Webb

4. 6.8 Bronson Arroyo

5. 6.2 Roy Oswalt

 

*Personally, I hate WARP for pitchers.

 

PRC**

 

1. 105 John Smoltz

2. 102 Chris Carpenter

3. 100 Carlos Zambrano

4. 97 Brandon Webb

5. 95 Jason Schmidt

 

**Not all-inclusive. It doesn't factor in a pitcher's value at the plate.

 

Win Shares:

 

1. 17 Brandon Webb

2. 16 Carlos Zambrano

3. 13 Chris Carpenter

4. 13 Bronson Arroyo

5. 12 6 Tied

 

Given this information, I'd have to say:

 

1. John Smoltz

2. Carlos Zambrano

3. Brandon Webb

4. Roy Oswalt

5. Chris Carpenter

 

Factoring in what voters will vote:

 

1. Brandon Webb

2. Chris Carpenter

3. Carlos Zambrano

4. John Smoltz

5. Roy Oswalt

[Jazz]

I think if Z can win 3 or 4 more starts, and pitch pretty well and get his ERA to near or below that 3.00 mark he has a great shot and winning this thing. Its neck and neck between him carpenter and webb for what voters will vote right now.

[NCCubFan]

Whoever I argued with at the beginning of the season that Brandon Webb would never contend for the Cy Young should feel free to step forward so I can recognize their superiority.

I don't know if that was Tim, but he's been a big fan of Webb for some time.