Morgan makes sense

[hardcorecubfan]

The Cubs need guys with high OBP. They don't need more "power hitters" who can't get on base regularly. Sure, if they could bring in a guy like Dunn, who gets on base at a great clip AND hits for power - fine. But don't go looking for power and say "if we get a couple high OBP guys, that's just icing."

 

The reason the Cubs suck is b/c they don't score runs. They don't score runs b/c they don't get enough guys on base.

 

A lot of those power guys provide good OBP, though. A power guy with a good OBP is better than a non power guy with a good OBP.

 

agree, as well if our power hitters would just show some of their power on days that the wind blows out.

[Kingmanarama]

Ok, I'll give you a team of 8 Omar Visquel's production of this year (.374 OBP) and I'll take 8 Ryan Howards (.344 OBP). My team will score many more runs then your team will over a season.

 

Small point: you're taking a player who is not among the league leaders in OBP (Vizquel) and comparing him to a player who is second in the NL in home runs and fourth in SLG (Howard).

 

How would your eight Ryan Howards do against eight Nick Johnsons? (Or eight Scott Hattebergs, or Freddy Sanchezes, or Brad Hawpes. Man, baseball will be cool when it's played by clones. Less cool when the Cubs spend $80 million on eight Phil Nevins, though).

 

Howard's RC/27 is 7.22. Sanchez, who has 25 fewer home runs, is at 7.58.

 

Shouldn't it be Freddy Sanchi?

 

The Pirates should give away Freddy Sanchia Pets. That'd be awesome.

[CubColtPacer]

Ok, I'll give you a team of 8 Omar Visquel's production of this year (.374 OBP) and I'll take 8 Ryan Howards (.344 OBP). My team will score many more runs then your team will over a season.

 

Small point: you're taking a player who is not among the league leaders in OBP (Vizquel) and comparing him to a player who is second in the NL in home runs and fourth in SLG (Howard).

 

How would your eight Ryan Howards do against eight Nick Johnsons? (Or eight Scott Hattebergs, or Freddy Sanchezes, or Brad Hawpes. Man, baseball will be cool when it's played by clones. Less cool when the Cubs spend $80 million on eight Phil Nevins, though).

 

Howard's RC/27 is 7.22. Sanchez, who has 25 fewer home runs, is at 7.58.

 

You're right about that point. I was intentionally trying to do that to show how slugging can be just as important as OBP, which at the time I thought that the person was dismissing slugging as only a nice bonus if the person had a high OBP already. Freddy Sanchez vs. Ryan Howard is actually a very good battle. Like the numbers say, I would probably take Sanchez first (production of this year mind you, if I was projecting forward I would take Howard), because he has a high OBP and still hits lots of doubles.

I think 8 Ryan Howard's would beat 8 Scott Hatteberg's. 8 Freddy Sanchez's and 8 Nick Johnson's would be a very close match-I would guess because of speed factors that Sanchez would beat Howard, and Howard would beat Johnson. Finally, which stadium are we playing in against Hawpe? (no answer needed, just a joke, but I think that really would be the determining factor in that particular matchup).

[fromthestretch]

Finally, which stadium are we playing in against Hawpe? (no answer needed, just a joke, but I think that really would be the determining factor in that particular matchup).

 

Oddly enough, Hawpe's numbers on the road are much better than his home numbers this season.

[Tracer Bullet]

Finally, which stadium are we playing in against Hawpe? (no answer needed, just a joke, but I think that really would be the determining factor in that particular matchup).

 

Oddly enough, Hawpe's numbers on the road are much better than his home numbers this season.

 

Just to emphasize, Brad Hawpe 2006 splits:

 

Home: .277/.357/.455/.802

Away: .337/.424/.639/1.063

[Tracer Bullet]

Ok, I'll give you a team of 8 Omar Visquel's production of this year (.374 OBP) and I'll take 8 Ryan Howards (.344 OBP). My team will score many more runs then your team will over a season.

 

Small point: you're taking a player who is not among the league leaders in OBP (Vizquel) and comparing him to a player who is second in the NL in home runs and fourth in SLG (Howard).

 

How would your eight Ryan Howards do against eight Nick Johnsons? (Or eight Scott Hattebergs, or Freddy Sanchezes, or Brad Hawpes. Man, baseball will be cool when it's played by clones. Less cool when the Cubs spend $80 million on eight Phil Nevins, though).

 

Howard's RC/27 is 7.22. Sanchez, who has 25 fewer home runs, is at 7.58.

 

You're right about that point. I was intentionally trying to do that to show how slugging can be just as important as OBP, which at the time I thought that the person was dismissing slugging as only a nice bonus if the person had a high OBP already. Freddy Sanchez vs. Ryan Howard is actually a very good battle. Like the numbers say, I would probably take Sanchez first (production of this year mind you, if I was projecting forward I would take Howard), because he has a high OBP and still hits lots of doubles.

I think 8 Ryan Howard's would beat 8 Scott Hatteberg's. 8 Freddy Sanchez's and 8 Nick Johnson's would be a very close match-I would guess because of speed factors that Sanchez would beat Howard, and Howard would beat Johnson. Finally, which stadium are we playing in against Hawpe? (no answer needed, just a joke, but I think that really would be the determining factor in that particular matchup).

 

If you're really trying to show that SLG is equally as important as OBP, how about you take a team of Bill Hall's (.310/.536 - on pace for 25-30 homers) and I'll take a team of Ichiro's (.398/.444) They have nearly identical OPS's (.836 for Hall; .832 for Ichiro).

 

RC/27: Hall 5.55; Ichiro 7.76.

 

Just making the point that OBP > SLG. Ideally you'd get both with every player. But as between the two, OBP is more important.

 

Just look at Giambi and Dye. I won't post the numbers, but Dye is 1 point higher in OPS. Dye 20 points more in SLG; Giambi about 20 points more in OBP. Nearly equal in doubles and homers, Dye has more hits and much higher AVG, Giambi more walks. Giambi's RC/27 is .5 greater.

[KaiserCesar]

Finally, which stadium are we playing in against Hawpe? (no answer needed, just a joke, but I think that really would be the determining factor in that particular matchup).

 

Oddly enough, Hawpe's numbers on the road are much better than his home numbers this season.

 

Just to emphasize, Brad Hawpe 2006 splits:

 

Home: .277/.357/.455/.802

Away: .337/.424/.639/1.063

 

It's the humidor!

 

Gotta get them balls wet so you can't smack em out of the ballpark.

[Magnetic Curses]

Ok, I'll give you a team of 8 Omar Visquel's production of this year (.374 OBP) and I'll take 8 Ryan Howards (.344 OBP). My team will score many more runs then your team will over a season.

 

Small point: you're taking a player who is not among the league leaders in OBP (Vizquel) and comparing him to a player who is second in the NL in home runs and fourth in SLG (Howard).

 

How would your eight Ryan Howards do against eight Nick Johnsons? (Or eight Scott Hattebergs, or Freddy Sanchezes, or Brad Hawpes. Man, baseball will be cool when it's played by clones. Less cool when the Cubs spend $80 million on eight Phil Nevins, though).

 

Howard's RC/27 is 7.22. Sanchez, who has 25 fewer home runs, is at 7.58.

 

You're right about that point. I was intentionally trying to do that to show how slugging can be just as important as OBP, which at the time I thought that the person was dismissing slugging as only a nice bonus if the person had a high OBP already. Freddy Sanchez vs. Ryan Howard is actually a very good battle. Like the numbers say, I would probably take Sanchez first (production of this year mind you, if I was projecting forward I would take Howard), because he has a high OBP and still hits lots of doubles.

I think 8 Ryan Howard's would beat 8 Scott Hatteberg's. 8 Freddy Sanchez's and 8 Nick Johnson's would be a very close match-I would guess because of speed factors that Sanchez would beat Howard, and Howard would beat Johnson. Finally, which stadium are we playing in against Hawpe? (no answer needed, just a joke, but I think that really would be the determining factor in that particular matchup).

 

If you're really trying to show that SLG is equally as important as OBP, how about you take a team of Bill Hall's (.310/.536 - on pace for 25-30 homers) and I'll take a team of Ichiro's (.398/.444) They have nearly identical OPS's (.836 for Hall; .832 for Ichiro).

 

RC/27: Hall 5.55; Ichiro 7.76.

 

Just making the point that OBP > SLG. Ideally you'd get both with every player. But as between the two, OBP is more important.

 

Just look at Giambi and Dye. I won't post the numbers, but Dye is 1 point higher in OPS. Dye 20 points more in SLG; Giambi about 20 points more in OBP. Nearly equal in doubles and homers, Dye has more hits and much higher AVG, Giambi more walks. Giambi's RC/27 is .5 greater.

 

UK has a good weighting system for OPS in which he accounts for the slight difference in importance between OBP and SLG.

 

yes, OBP is slightly more important as not making outs is obviously more important than having the ability to drive the ball with more regularity.

 

both are very important, and much more important than the ability to simply "just put the ball in play". as is the cubs motto.

[Sweet Swinging Billy]

"I used to be a big fan of Hendry's and somewhat anti-Baker, but I've come to believe that Hendry is a lot more at fault for what's happened recently than Baker is. The club was fundamentally flawed when the season started and in retrospect, what has happened could probably have been predicted".

 

---I couldn't agree with you more. How can Hendry expect Baker to win when he doesn't supply him the players. Besides those players you already mentioned, I would definitely hang on to Marmol, Pierre...and possibly Prior. I'm still not convinced that Dempster should close for us --maybe the Cubs should trade him too.

[goonys evil twin]

"I used to be a big fan of Hendry's and somewhat anti-Baker, but I've come to believe that Hendry is a lot more at fault for what's happened recently than Baker is. The club was fundamentally flawed when the season started and in retrospect, what has happened could probably have been predicted".

 

---I couldn't agree with you more. How can Hendry expect Baker to win when he doesn't supply him the players.

 

In a way this is true, but in another way, Dusty wanted those players. Dusty wanted speed and defense and bunting and all that jazz. He got what he asked for, and now he's surprised he can't win.

[BWcubs21]

Just making the point that OBP > SLG. Ideally you'd get both with every player. But as between the two, OBP is more important.

 

As a general rule, yes OBP is greater than SLG, but that is not always the case. Here is how I view the greater need in a lineup.

 

1. OBP- is the obvious choice here

2. OBP- these two are the table setters and need to get on-base

3. You need a balance here, I would say they are equally important here.

4. SLG- is going to win out here, ideally you have both, but if I had to choose its SLG.

5. SLG- same as 4, these should be your big power guys (Carlos Lee and ARAM would be a good example at 4 or 5)

6. OBP- you still want a guy with pop here, but OBP is more important

7. OBP- 7-8 are probably not going to be great hitters, but I would rather have someone get on-base to extend the inning.

8. OBP- want this guy to get OB so the pitcher bats and extend the inning

9. pitcher- just hope they do something!

[goonys evil twin]

Just making the point that OBP > SLG. Ideally you'd get both with every player. But as between the two, OBP is more important.

 

As a general rule, yes OBP is greater than SLG, but that is not always the case. Here is how I view the greater need in a lineup.

 

1. OBP- is the obvious choice here

2. OBP- these two are the table setters and need to get on-base

3. You need a balance here, I would say they are equally important here.

4. SLG- is going to win out here, ideally you have both, but if I had to choose its SLG.

5. SLG- same as 4, these should be your big power guys (Carlos Lee and ARAM would be a good example at 4 or 5)

6. OBP- you still want a guy with pop here, but OBP is more important

7. OBP- 7-8 are probably not going to be great hitters, but I would rather have someone get on-base to extend the inning.

8. OBP- want this guy to get OB so the pitcher bats and extend the inning

9. pitcher- just hope they do something!

 

Why are you choosing one or the other? You need the best blend. OBP is a little more valuable, but you need both. If you do have a guy who isn't any good in one area, then he better be absolutely fantastic in the other. That is why Pierre hurts the team so much. Not only is he really bad with SLG, his OBP stinks. He's rarely been close to great in that department.

[Tracer Bullet]

UK has a good weighting system for OPS in which he accounts for the slight difference in importance between OBP and SLG.

 

yes, OBP is slightly more important as not making outs is obviously more important than having the ability to drive the ball with more regularity.

 

both are very important, and much more important than the ability to simply "just put the ball in play". as is the cubs motto.

 

I think it's more than a slight difference, but I agree that both are very, very important.

[Tracer Bullet]

Just making the point that OBP > SLG. Ideally you'd get both with every player. But as between the two, OBP is more important.

 

As a general rule, yes OBP is greater than SLG, but that is not always the case. Here is how I view the greater need in a lineup.

 

1. OBP- is the obvious choice here

2. OBP- these two are the table setters and need to get on-base

3. You need a balance here, I would say they are equally important here.

4. SLG- is going to win out here, ideally you have both, but if I had to choose its SLG.

5. SLG- same as 4, these should be your big power guys (Carlos Lee and ARAM would be a good example at 4 or 5)

6. OBP- you still want a guy with pop here, but OBP is more important

7. OBP- 7-8 are probably not going to be great hitters, but I would rather have someone get on-base to extend the inning.

8. OBP- want this guy to get OB so the pitcher bats and extend the inning

9. pitcher- just hope they do something!

 

I just don't agree. I want OBP at every position. I don't want a guy hitting 4th or 5th with a .600 SLG and a .300 OBP. He's still going to kill innings. As I've said many times in this thread, I'm not saying ignore SLG, I think it's a hugely important stat. But if I'm deciding between a .380/.550 guy and a .300/.620 guy for the 4/5 spots (or anywhere else), I'll take the former.

 

Give me OBP at every position and then put the better SLG at 3, 4, 5.

 

I can't imagine SLG being equally important to OBP at the 3 spot. If you have two great table setters and then your #3 guy gets out more than 70% of the time, you're killing a lot of chances to score runs. #3 should be your best hitter, which is a combination of both. But OBP is still more important.

 

EDIT: It's interesting that you pick CLee and ARam as your 4/5 examples. CLee has a .350 OBP this year and ARam's last 2 seasons were about .370 and .360 (it's down this year b/c of his terrible start). But that's the same kind of guy I'd want - good OBP and good SLG. I'm saying I don't want a guy like Soriano (career, not this year, where his OBP is good): .325/.500.

[BWcubs21]

Just making the point that OBP > SLG. Ideally you'd get both with every player. But as between the two, OBP is more important.

 

As a general rule, yes OBP is greater than SLG, but that is not always the case. Here is how I view the greater need in a lineup.

 

1. OBP- is the obvious choice here

2. OBP- these two are the table setters and need to get on-base

3. You need a balance here, I would say they are equally important here.

4. SLG- is going to win out here, ideally you have both, but if I had to choose its SLG.

5. SLG- same as 4, these should be your big power guys (Carlos Lee and ARAM would be a good example at 4 or 5)

6. OBP- you still want a guy with pop here, but OBP is more important

7. OBP- 7-8 are probably not going to be great hitters, but I would rather have someone get on-base to extend the inning.

8. OBP- want this guy to get OB so the pitcher bats and extend the inning

9. pitcher- just hope they do something!

 

I just don't agree. I want OBP at every position. I don't want a guy hitting 4th or 5th with a .600 SLG and a .300 OBP. He's still going to kill innings. As I've said many times in this thread, I'm not saying ignore SLG, I think it's a hugely important stat. But if I'm deciding between a .380/.550 guy and a .300/.620 guy for the 4/5 spots (or anywhere else), I'll take the former.

 

Give me OBP at every position and then put the better SLG at 3, 4, 5.

 

I can't imagine SLG being equally important to OBP at the 3 spot. If you have two great table setters and then your #3 guy gets out more than 70% of the time, you're killing a lot of chances to score runs. #3 should be your best hitter, which is a combination of both. But OBP is still more important.

 

I was sorta misunderstood I guess, I am not saying I want just SLG guys at 4-5. As I stated in my post ideally you have a combo of both at 4 and 5, but since when do we live in an ideal world? This is the Cubs! :D As for the #3, I was trying to say you want both in the form of someone like DLee who is great in both categories, notice I didnt but CLee or ARam there. Yes give me a team with great OBP and a couple of guys who couple with a very good OPS, but does that team exsist?

[BWcubs21]

EDIT: It's interesting that you pick CLee and ARam as your 4/5 examples. CLee has a .350 OBP this year and ARam's last 2 seasons were about .370 and .360 (it's down this year b/c of his terrible start). But that's the same kind of guy I'd want - good OBP and good SLG. I'm saying I don't want a guy like Soriano (career, not this year, where his OBP is good): .325/.500.

 

Yes, thank you! That is what I am trying to get across, guys who have decent to good OBP and have very good SLG are ideal 4-5 hitters, I wasnt trying to say someone like Soriano who has a below average OBP. Soriano is sort of an interesting case, where would you bat him in a lineup? I would more than likely steer clear of him in the first place, but if we had him I would go 6, even though it is against my ideal lineup. I would say the 7 and 8 hitters aren't great, so I am not as concerened with his OBP as I would be if he was was batting top 5.

[BWcubs21]

Why are you choosing one or the other? You need the best blend. OBP is a little more valuable, but you need both. If you do have a guy who isn't any good in one area, then he better be absolutely fantastic in the other. That is why Pierre hurts the team so much. Not only is he really bad with SLG, his OBP stinks. He's rarely been close to great in that department.

 

I know you need a blend, but I am saying what I value more at each spot. I am not saying this guy should be SLG or this guy should be OBP and that is it. As for Pierre, he did hurt this team the first two months of the year, but look at his numbers since June.

 

.327 Avg

.375 OBP

.435 SLG

.810 OPS

 

I would say he has been GREAT since June! If you just look at his overall numbers, then yeah he is a really bad fit (he was brutal in April and May), but look at the splits. If he can keep this up to a certain extent then I would welcome him back next year.

[TB_11]

"I used to be a big fan of Hendry's and somewhat anti-Baker, but I've come to believe that Hendry is a lot more at fault for what's happened recently than Baker is. The club was fundamentally flawed when the season started and in retrospect, what has happened could probably have been predicted".

 

---I couldn't agree with you more. How can Hendry expect Baker to win when he doesn't supply him the players.

 

In a way this is true, but in another way, Dusty wanted those players. Dusty wanted speed and defense and bunting and all that jazz. He got what he asked for, and now he's surprised he can't win.

 

Don't forget veterans. Hendry has shown a preference for veterans as well, but Dusty's basic demand for them has been a significant problem.

[goonys evil twin]

I would say he has been GREAT since June! If you just look at his overall numbers, then yeah he is a really bad fit (he was brutal in April and May), but look at the splits. If he can keep this up to a certain extent then I would welcome him back next year.

 

Yeah, and if Neifi could keep up his April 2005 stats I'd want him back as well. The point is Pierre is not going to keep this up. He's going to finish the year mediocre, like has in every year but one in his career. It doesn't matter what he's done since June, what matters is what he's done in his career, the past couple years, and this year, and in turn what he is likely to do next year and over the course of his theoretical contract. Odds are he will not be that good next year, or any year after.

[CuseCubFan69]

I would say he has been GREAT since June! If you just look at his overall numbers, then yeah he is a really bad fit (he was brutal in April and May), but look at the splits. If he can keep this up to a certain extent then I would welcome him back next year.

 

Yeah, and if Neifi could keep up his April 2005 stats I'd want him back as well. The point is Pierre is not going to keep this up. He's going to finish the year mediocre, like has in every year but one in his career. It doesn't matter what he's done since June, what matters is what he's done in his career, the past couple years, and this year, and in turn what he is likely to do next year and over the course of his theoretical contract. Odds are he will not be that good next year, or any year after.

 

I'm sure you've said this but when a guy with a low Isod goes into a slump he doesn't help the team but a guy that has a high Isod can at least help the team by getting on base. When Pierre slumps he has almost no value other than speed, which can't get him on base but if he can steal almost 100% effective and take the extra bases he adds something, not much but something. I can't even say his D would still be there as he hasn't thrown a runner out in many many moons.