Juan Pierre extension watch

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Here is the strange thing about Juan Pierre. If the Cubs lineup were stocked with good OBP guys, then Pierre would not be a good fit, because his speed would not be as necessary. However, if the Cubs are not a good OBP team, Pierre is a great leadoff hitter for them. Why? Because Pierre scores runs when he gets on base. When Pierre gets on, it usually only takes him one hit to get him in. When you don't have high OBP guys behind him, it is nice to only need 1 hit to get your leadoff man in. So, with this strange logic, if the rest of the team remains the same or close to it, the best leadoff hitter for this type of team is Juan Pierre.

 

This is not only strange logic, it's illogical logic. The best leadoff man for a team with bad OBP is a leadoff man with bad OBP?

 

I'm arguing that when a team has bad OBP behind him, speed becomes the next important thing. Pierre creates runs with his speed. Let's take an extreme example of this. A player who is so slow he can only advance one base at a time has a 1.000 OBP. He walks every single time, so the team puts him at leadoff. The team behind him only has a .200 OBP, so they are only going to knock him in about 1 out of every 10 times. A player like Pierre with a .750 OBP only gets on 3 out of 4 times, but he only needs 1 hit to get him home, not 3. Therefore, the team knocks him home more often statistically then the player with the 1.000 OBP. Yes, this is absolutely absurd, but it works just as well with actual team numbers. A player with a .400 OBP is wasted if the team behind them can not string together hits to get them home, and so a player like Pierre with a .330 OBP is actually statistically more likely to get home with one hit from the hitters behind him with his speed. The best scenario is to get a lineup who has great OBP hitters, but for this team Juan Pierre has the best statistical chance of scoring per at bat.

 

First off, if the guy is so slow he can only advance 1 base at a time, 1 out of 10 times he'll only get to 2nd base.

 

Anywho, you're neglecting the failure rates of subsequent batters. A "hit" to drive him in is only going to happen 3 out of 10 times with a good hitter behind him. Keep in mind, too, that Pierre does not steal a base with each single/walk/HBP (132 singles/BB/HBP, 32 SBs), so more often than not it will take more than just 1 hit to get him in. Now you're counting on having 2 good hitters behind him for him to score when he gets on base, which is going to happen more often with a leadoff hitter who gets on base more often.

[frostwyrm]

Here is the strange thing about Juan Pierre. If the Cubs lineup were stocked with good OBP guys, then Pierre would not be a good fit, because his speed would not be as necessary. However, if the Cubs are not a good OBP team, Pierre is a great leadoff hitter for them. Why? Because Pierre scores runs when he gets on base. When Pierre gets on, it usually only takes him one hit to get him in. When you don't have high OBP guys behind him, it is nice to only need 1 hit to get your leadoff man in. So, with this strange logic, if the rest of the team remains the same or close to it, the best leadoff hitter for this type of team is Juan Pierre.

 

This is not only strange logic, it's illogical logic. The best leadoff man for a team with bad OBP is a leadoff man with bad OBP?

Pierre can score from 1st base on any hit? Why isn't he making $20+ million dollars per year?

 

I'm arguing that when a team has bad OBP behind him, speed becomes the next important thing. Pierre creates runs with his speed. Let's take an extreme example of this. A player who is so slow he can only advance one base at a time has a 1.000 OBP. He walks every single time, so the team puts him at leadoff. The team behind him only has a .200 OBP, so they are only going to knock him in about 1 out of every 10 times. A player like Pierre with a .750 OBP only gets on 3 out of 4 times, but he only needs 1 hit to get him home, not 3. Therefore, the team knocks him home more often statistically then the player with the 1.000 OBP. Yes, this is absolutely absurd, but it works just as well with actual team numbers. A player with a .400 OBP is wasted if the team behind them can not string together hits to get them home, and so a player like Pierre with a .330 OBP is actually statistically more likely to get home with one hit from the hitters behind him with his speed. The best scenario is to get a lineup who has great OBP hitters, but for this team Juan Pierre has the best statistical chance of scoring per at bat.

Pierre can score from 1st base on any hit? Why isn't he making $20 million dollars per year?

[frostwyrm]

When Pierre gets on, it usually only takes him one hit to get him in.

 

What blows me away is how Dusty can continue giving the bunt sign on the first pitch after Pierre gets a single. That might be the dumbest call in the history of sports, and he does it frequently. Why?

 

Waste an out to get a guy to 2nd base that 9 times out of 10 Pierre can get without anyone else's help.

 

Not only is this team horrible in relation to OBP, but they also waste precious outs way too often when they do have runners on base.

I especially like a sac bunt with Pierre already on 2nd base. It's also fun to see mega-free-swinging Neifi with the green light to foul away pitches while Pierre tries to steal.

[CubColtPacer]

Here is the strange thing about Juan Pierre. If the Cubs lineup were stocked with good OBP guys, then Pierre would not be a good fit, because his speed would not be as necessary. However, if the Cubs are not a good OBP team, Pierre is a great leadoff hitter for them. Why? Because Pierre scores runs when he gets on base. When Pierre gets on, it usually only takes him one hit to get him in. When you don't have high OBP guys behind him, it is nice to only need 1 hit to get your leadoff man in. So, with this strange logic, if the rest of the team remains the same or close to it, the best leadoff hitter for this type of team is Juan Pierre.

 

This is not only strange logic, it's illogical logic. The best leadoff man for a team with bad OBP is a leadoff man with bad OBP?

Pierre can score from 1st base on any hit? Why isn't he making $20+ million dollars per year?

 

I'm arguing that when a team has bad OBP behind him, speed becomes the next important thing. Pierre creates runs with his speed. Let's take an extreme example of this. A player who is so slow he can only advance one base at a time has a 1.000 OBP. He walks every single time, so the team puts him at leadoff. The team behind him only has a .200 OBP, so they are only going to knock him in about 1 out of every 10 times. A player like Pierre with a .750 OBP only gets on 3 out of 4 times, but he only needs 1 hit to get him home, not 3. Therefore, the team knocks him home more often statistically then the player with the 1.000 OBP. Yes, this is absolutely absurd, but it works just as well with actual team numbers. A player with a .400 OBP is wasted if the team behind them can not string together hits to get them home, and so a player like Pierre with a .330 OBP is actually statistically more likely to get home with one hit from the hitters behind him with his speed. The best scenario is to get a lineup who has great OBP hitters, but for this team Juan Pierre has the best statistical chance of scoring per at bat.

Pierre can score from 1st base on any hit? Why isn't he making $20 million dollars per year?

 

Not on any hit, but you have to agree that Pierre's speed makes it much more likely to have him score from 1st base on a double. It also makes him much more likely to steal second, and tag up on fly balls. While this does not offset all OBP differences, it does start to make up for a lower OBP, and speed is much more valuable statistically when factored into a team with a low OBP then a high one because that is the one of the main ways for a team with a low OBP to create runs.

[jjgman21]

I don't advocate retaining Pierre whatsoever. however, stop taking the posters comments out of context and to a ridiculous extreme. you all know what he is saying, and you all know that Pierre at 1B >>> let's say Wilkerson at 1B. there's a myriad of ways a fast runner can get around the bases and score after reaching first than if a medium running player is at first.

[frostwyrm]

Here is the strange thing about Juan Pierre. If the Cubs lineup were stocked with good OBP guys, then Pierre would not be a good fit, because his speed would not be as necessary. However, if the Cubs are not a good OBP team, Pierre is a great leadoff hitter for them. Why? Because Pierre scores runs when he gets on base. When Pierre gets on, it usually only takes him one hit to get him in. When you don't have high OBP guys behind him, it is nice to only need 1 hit to get your leadoff man in. So, with this strange logic, if the rest of the team remains the same or close to it, the best leadoff hitter for this type of team is Juan Pierre.

 

This is not only strange logic, it's illogical logic. The best leadoff man for a team with bad OBP is a leadoff man with bad OBP?

Pierre can score from 1st base on any hit? Why isn't he making $20+ million dollars per year?

 

I'm arguing that when a team has bad OBP behind him, speed becomes the next important thing. Pierre creates runs with his speed. Let's take an extreme example of this. A player who is so slow he can only advance one base at a time has a 1.000 OBP. He walks every single time, so the team puts him at leadoff. The team behind him only has a .200 OBP, so they are only going to knock him in about 1 out of every 10 times. A player like Pierre with a .750 OBP only gets on 3 out of 4 times, but he only needs 1 hit to get him home, not 3. Therefore, the team knocks him home more often statistically then the player with the 1.000 OBP. Yes, this is absolutely absurd, but it works just as well with actual team numbers. A player with a .400 OBP is wasted if the team behind them can not string together hits to get them home, and so a player like Pierre with a .330 OBP is actually statistically more likely to get home with one hit from the hitters behind him with his speed. The best scenario is to get a lineup who has great OBP hitters, but for this team Juan Pierre has the best statistical chance of scoring per at bat.

Pierre can score from 1st base on any hit? Why isn't he making $20 million dollars per year?

 

Not on any hit, but you have to agree that Pierre's speed makes it much more likely to have him score from 1st base on a double. It also makes him much more likely to steal second, and tag up on fly balls. While this does not offset all OBP differences, it does start to make up for a lower OBP, and speed is much more valuable statistically when factored into a team with a low OBP then a high one because that is the one of the main ways for a team with a low OBP to create runs.

Opposing baserunners constantly take extra bases off of Pierre's girlie arm, so Pierre has to steal just to get back the bases his arm gives away. He also gets caught way too often. I'd rather have Corey. When he steals a base it's not just a way to make up for what his arm gave away.

[CUBZ99]

I don't advocate retaining Pierre whatsoever. however, stop taking the posters comments out of context and to a ridiculous extreme. you all know what he is saying, and you all know that Pierre at 1B >>> let's say Wilkerson at 1B. there's a myriad of ways a fast runner can get around the bases and score after reaching first than if a medium running player is at first.

 

When Pierre is on his game, he is better than any player in recent Cubs history at navagating the bases and finding a way to score. Unfortunately, Pierre has only been "on his game" for a short period of time.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I don't advocate retaining Pierre whatsoever. however, stop taking the posters comments out of context and to a ridiculous extreme. you all know what he is saying, and you all know that Pierre at 1B >>> let's say Wilkerson at 1B. there's a myriad of ways a fast runner can get around the bases and score after reaching first than if a medium running player is at first.

 

That poster took his own comments to a ridiculous extreme.

Edited July 17, 2006 by Ding Dong Johnson

[goonys evil twin]

I don't advocate retaining Pierre whatsoever. however, stop taking the posters comments out of context and to a ridiculous extreme. you all know what he is saying, and you all know that Pierre at 1B >>> let's say Wilkerson at 1B. there's a myriad of ways a fast runner can get around the bases and score after reaching first than if a medium running player is at first.

 

I think I know what he's saying, but he's not making any sense. That's his fault, not mine. Pierre doesn't score at will when he gets on base. In fact, he scores about 36% of the time that he gets on base, less frequently than Aramis or Jacque, much less frequently than Matt Murton.

 

It's nice to come up with these theories that seem to make sense. But they just don't hold up to evidence. It's simply not true that a low OBP player with speed is better at leadoff for this team. It's an absurd claim that simply follows in the same lead us to nowhere line of thought that Hendry and Baker have. Speed is not the biggest need at leadoff, or anywhere in the lineup. OBP is the biggest need, with power a close second. The Cubs have been lacking in OBP for years, and decided to lack in SLG this year because of the erronious belief that their "wait for the 3-run homer" style was the reason they couldn't score.

[jjgman21]

Opposing baserunners constantly take extra bases off of Pierre's girlie arm, so Pierre has to steal just to get back the bases his arm gives away. He also gets caught way too often. I'd rather have Corey. When he steals a base it's not just a way to make up for what his arm gave away.

 

see my point in the other thread about using defense to bash one player, but discounting it when someone else tries to defend a different player.

 

I'd take a guy who hits the cutoff man every time and prevents extra bases that way than a Sosa-esque player who throws out 8 guys a year but gives away 50 extra bases a year by airmailing everybody. in other words, strong outfield arms are severly overrated if the player isn't smart with the use of that arm.

 

more generally, I don't take issue with the opposition to the notion that a high speed/ low obp guy is better for a team. what I take issue with is taking things out of context to try to make an argument look ridiculous. the point that Pierre is more likely than almost any other player in the game to score once reaching first can't be disputed, and the sarcastic "it takes one hit to score from first?" type posts do nothing to contribute to the conversation.

 

and let me make this clear...I don't like Pierre in center, and I don't like Jones in right without a right handed platoon partner. I just want a realistic assessment of this team without hyperbole to assess where we are and have meaningful conversations about where we want this team to go.

[fromthestretch]

Pierre doesn't score at will when he gets on base. In fact, he scores about 36% of the time that he gets on base, less frequently than Aramis or Jacque, much less frequently than Matt Murton.

 

When you consider who is batting behind Pierre as opposed to who is batting behind Ramirez, Jacque and Murton, that percentage looks even worse.

[Banedon]

the point that Pierre is more likely than almost any other player in the game to score once reaching first can't be disputed, and the sarcastic "it takes one hit to score from first?" type posts do nothing to contribute to the conversation.

 

Actually, I think that goony disputed it quite well...

 

I think I know what he's saying, but he's not making any sense. That's his fault, not mine. Pierre doesn't score at will when he gets on base. In fact, he scores about 36% of the time that he gets on base, less frequently than Aramis or Jacque, much less frequently than Matt Murton.

 

And the "it takes one hit to score from first?" comments help clarify someone's position. Do they really mean that, is it hyperbole, or am I just mis-reading it?

[CubColtPacer]

Pierre doesn't score at will when he gets on base. In fact, he scores about 36% of the time that he gets on base, less frequently than Aramis or Jacque, much less frequently than Matt Murton.

 

When you consider who is batting behind Pierre as opposed to who is batting behind Ramirez, Jacque and Murton, that percentage looks even worse.

 

Not really-Neifi batted behind Pierre a decent amount of the time. Ramirez, Jacque, and Murton have each other-and for a player like Jones, 15 of his 38 runs have been driving in himself. Also, now that Pierre has been hot, his #2 hitter Walker has been ice cold, and Lee has been pretty cold himself. The bottom of the order has been the better part of the order all season-Barrett, Jones, and Murton spent a great deal of the season hitting 5/6/7, and that is where most of the runs came from. Don't blame Pierre for Dusty's refusal to move players hitting well up the order.

[jjgman21]

the point that Pierre is more likely than almost any other player in the game to score once reaching first can't be disputed, and the sarcastic "it takes one hit to score from first?" type posts do nothing to contribute to the conversation.

 

Actually, I think that goony disputed it quite well...

 

I think I know what he's saying, but he's not making any sense. That's his fault, not mine. Pierre doesn't score at will when he gets on base. In fact, he scores about 36% of the time that he gets on base, less frequently than Aramis or Jacque, much less frequently than Matt Murton.

 

And the "it takes one hit to score from first?" comments help clarify someone's position. Do they really mean that, is it hyperbole, or am I just mis-reading it?

 

gooney's point is a great illustration of the hypocrisy I am talking about. we all know that runs scored and RBI are team oriented stats, but when assessing a player that is not likes, suddenly the team related stats go out the window. no attempt is made to isolate Pierre's ability.

 

this is illustrated quite well with Cubscolts post immediately above.

[fromthestretch]

Pierre doesn't score at will when he gets on base. In fact, he scores about 36% of the time that he gets on base, less frequently than Aramis or Jacque, much less frequently than Matt Murton.

 

When you consider who is batting behind Pierre as opposed to who is batting behind Ramirez, Jacque and Murton, that percentage looks even worse.

 

Not really-Neifi batted behind Pierre a decent amount of the time. Ramirez, Jacque, and Murton have each other-and for a player like Jones, 15 of his 38 runs have been driving in himself. Also, now that Pierre has been hot, his #2 hitter Walker has been ice cold, and Lee has been pretty cold himself. The bottom of the order has been the better part of the order all season-Barrett, Jones, and Murton spent a great deal of the season hitting 5/6/7, and that is where most of the runs came from. Don't blame Pierre for Dusty's refusal to move players hitting well up the order.

 

Even if the #2 hitter doesn't get Pierre in, he still has the middle of the order behind him (Ramirez, Lee, Barrett, and Jones...the guys that are supposed to be driving in runs). He has the most "thunder" in the lineup behind him, as opposed to anyone else on the team. Murton on the other hand, has spend most of his time in the 5th, 6th, and 7th spots (mostly 7th) in the order. That means he's followed by a #8 hitter, then the pitcher, then Pierre, who doesn't drive in many runs.

[goonys evil twin]

gooney's point is a great illustration of the hypocrisy I am talking about.

 

Actually my point is that what "seems to be so obvious" to some often times doesn't hold up to any sort of analysis. Conventional wisdom in baseball has been proven wrong time and time again. And one of those conventional wisdom ideas, shares by the Cubs, is that OBP isn't as important as speed atop the lineup. Somebody is trying to claim that Pierre is the best option for leadoff because of his speed, despite his lack of OBP, due to his teammates lack of OBP. It's just not true. And no convoluted reasoning is going to change that fact. Pierre's lack of OBP hurts this team just like everybody else's lack of OBP hurts this team. His speed is an asset, but it doesn't erase the overall negative effect of his presence in the lineup.

[KaiserCesar]

I understand what CubColtPacer is saying, but I think that speed gets more valuable on a team with low SLG rather than low OBP. Reason for that is that with a low SLG, each hit (or lack thereof) advances baserunners a lesser amount of bases. Therefore, the extra base is worth a lot more since there is a lesser likelihood of a double/homer where scoring is pretty easy for most baserunners. Also, the SB % necessary for positive run creation should also be less since that out is worth less for a bad offensive team (but this also factors in OBP).

[fromthestretch]

the point that Pierre is more likely than almost any other player in the game to score once reaching first can't be disputed, and the sarcastic "it takes one hit to score from first?" type posts do nothing to contribute to the conversation.

 

Actually, I think that goony disputed it quite well...

 

I think I know what he's saying, but he's not making any sense. That's his fault, not mine. Pierre doesn't score at will when he gets on base. In fact, he scores about 36% of the time that he gets on base, less frequently than Aramis or Jacque, much less frequently than Matt Murton.

 

And the "it takes one hit to score from first?" comments help clarify someone's position. Do they really mean that, is it hyperbole, or am I just mis-reading it?

 

gooney's point is a great illustration of the hypocrisy I am talking about. we all know that runs scored and RBI are team oriented stats, but when assessing a player that is not likes, suddenly the team related stats go out the window. no attempt is made to isolate Pierre's ability.

 

this is illustrated quite well with Cubscolts post immediately above.

 

I think you're reading way too much into goony's post. He's simply responding to the claim that as a baserunner, Pierre is better at getting himself across the plate than others. We all know the Cubs lineup is pretty pathetic and that runs and RBI are not the best individual stats.

 

I think goony's comments actually help prove that runs scored is a more team-related statistic.

[CubColtPacer]

I understand what CubColtPacer is saying, but I think that speed gets more valuable on a team with low SLG rather than low OBP. Reason for that is that with a low SLG, each hit (or lack thereof) advances baserunners a lesser amount of bases. Therefore, the extra base is worth a lot more since there is a lesser likelihood of a double/homer where scoring is pretty easy for most baserunners. Also, the SB % necessary for positive run creation should also be less since that out is worth less for a bad offensive team (but this also factors in OBP).

 

Exactly, thank you I forgot to make that point. The fact that we are a bad slugging team only enhances our need to have somebody like Pierre. His speed becomes even more valuable on a team who is only able to score 1 run at a time. That is what I am saying about the low OBP team..they are not going to string enough hits together to score very often, so Pierre's speed creates the extra bases needed to at least drive him home some of the time. If Pierre is leading off, sometimes a hit behind him is not even needed. He can lead off, steal second, and proceed to home with 2 outs being recorded. For a team who can't get on base very well, and can't hit home runs, this ability to score with basically one hit can become very important.

[goonys evil twin]

Exactly, thank you I forgot to make that point. The fact that we are a bad slugging team only enhances our need to have somebody like Pierre.

 

Juan Pierre has been horrible this year, a big reason why the offense stunk. There never was any kind of a "need" for him, and therefore, there can be nothing that enhances that need.

[fromthestretch]

Pierre doesn't score at will when he gets on base. In fact, he scores about 36% of the time that he gets on base, less frequently than Aramis or Jacque, much less frequently than Matt Murton.

 

When you consider who is batting behind Pierre as opposed to who is batting behind Ramirez, Jacque and Murton, that percentage looks even worse.

 

Not really-Neifi batted behind Pierre a decent amount of the time. Ramirez, Jacque, and Murton have each other-and for a player like Jones, 15 of his 38 runs have been driving in himself. Also, now that Pierre has been hot, his #2 hitter Walker has been ice cold, and Lee has been pretty cold himself. The bottom of the order has been the better part of the order all season-Barrett, Jones, and Murton spent a great deal of the season hitting 5/6/7, and that is where most of the runs came from. Don't blame Pierre for Dusty's refusal to move players hitting well up the order.

 

Forgot to add that while I won't dispute the lack of production from the #2 spot in the order, Neifi has only hit in that spot in 15 games this season. And oddly enough, he's been fairly productive in his 54 at-bats there.

[CubColtPacer]

Exactly, thank you I forgot to make that point. The fact that we are a bad slugging team only enhances our need to have somebody like Pierre.

 

Juan Pierre has been horrible this year, a big reason why the offense stunk. There never was any kind of a "need" for him, and therefore, there can be nothing that enhances that need.

 

What if he makes it to .295/.335 this year? Is that still a horrible year? And yes, he could easily make that this year-he's a career .320 average after the break, he raised his batting average 7 points last night, and he only has 17 points to go. Sure, it's not the best OBP in the league, or anywhere close. What I'm saying though that on this team, his speed matters than it would on just about any team on the league. We can only score 1 run at a time most of the time, and Pierre is very good at creating run opportunities with his work on the bases.

[goonys evil twin]

What I'm saying though that on this team, his speed matters than it would on just about any team on the league. We can only score 1 run at a time most of the time, and Pierre is very good at creating run opportunities with his work on the bases.

 

Except he doesn't create run opportunities especially well and his lack of OBP is what matters most, much moreso than his speed. His speed does not offset his lack of OBP.

[frostwyrm]

I understand what CubColtPacer is saying, but I think that speed gets more valuable on a team with low SLG rather than low OBP. Reason for that is that with a low SLG, each hit (or lack thereof) advances baserunners a lesser amount of bases. Therefore, the extra base is worth a lot more since there is a lesser likelihood of a double/homer where scoring is pretty easy for most baserunners. Also, the SB % necessary for positive run creation should also be less since that out is worth less for a bad offensive team (but this also factors in OBP).

 

Exactly, thank you I forgot to make that point. The fact that we are a bad slugging team only enhances our need to have somebody like Pierre. His speed becomes even more valuable on a team who is only able to score 1 run at a time. That is what I am saying about the low OBP team..they are not going to string enough hits together to score very often, so Pierre's speed creates the extra bases needed to at least drive him home some of the time. If Pierre is leading off, sometimes a hit behind him is not even needed. He can lead off, steal second, and proceed to home with 2 outs being recorded. For a team who can't get on base very well, and can't hit home runs, this ability to score with basically one hit can become very important.

Instead of trying to find a leadoff man who's a good fit for a team with crummy OBP and SLG wouldn't it be a more sound strategy to try to stop being a team with crummy OBP and SLG?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Exactly, thank you I forgot to make that point. The fact that we are a bad slugging team only enhances our need to have somebody like Pierre.

 

Juan Pierre has been horrible this year, a big reason why the offense stunk. There never was any kind of a "need" for him, and therefore, there can be nothing that enhances that need.

 

What if he makes it to .295/.335 this year? Is that still a horrible year? And yes, he could easily make that this year-he's a career .320 average after the break, he raised his batting average 7 points last night, and he only has 17 points to go. Sure, it's not the best OBP in the league, or anywhere close. What I'm saying though that on this team, his speed matters than it would on just about any team on the league. We can only score 1 run at a time most of the time, and Pierre is very good at creating run opportunities with his work on the bases.

 

I would say 335 from my leadoff hitter would be a horrible season.