2007 Draft Class

[Mephistopheles]

Erik Geoddel and John Tolisano have fallen off a bit. I guess Tolisano is now the number three HS SS. Neil Ramirez has really been electric of late and Justin Jackson was off the charts at PGN. Robert Stock has slipped a bit, and one scout at one message board liked Danny Rams more as a HS catcher (much better recieving skills and intangibles).

 

Nuggets on 2-10:

 

Jackson - toolsy SS

Harvey - RHP who excelled at PGN low 90s FB with potential for more and impressive secondary pitches

Burgess - Power hitter with a gorgeous swing

Noonan - Flashy SS, but not complete like Jackson

Heyward - Power hitter

Ramirez - 90-94 FB with an advanced feel for pitching

Stock - Big Arm, Big Bat

Robles - 90 FB with a good curve and projectability. He and SS Garrett Nash might go ahead of where Pawly went from Utah.

Parker - Low 90s FB and that's about all I know.

[craig]

Dusty's Cubs have, for the moment, scrapped their way into a tie with Tampa for 27th place. They are two wins up on Cleveland, 4 on Washington, and 5 on Baltimore. I believe the draft rules is that in case of tie, the the team that was worse the previous year gets first choice? If so, the Cubs would lose tiebreakers to KC, Pittsburgh, Tampa, and Baltimore, and as it stands would draft 4th.

 

It would probably nice if they could hold somewhere in the 3-5 range. Heh, I associate that with guys like Corey, Wood, and Mike Harkey, serious talents in their day. In the 6-10 range I associate that with Harvey, Garland, Earl Cunningham, Ty Griffin, Derrick May, not on the same plane.

 

Nice to know that it's going to be a deep draft. Both the Montanez and Harvey drafts were not viewed as very good at the time, and I don't think retrospect has changed that.

 

I'd expect to lose our 2nd and/or 3rd round picks, although you never know. The Cubs are obviously very talent-deficient from the big-league club down through the greatly thinned farm system. Hendry obviously will have substantial moneys to spend this winter, and obvious priorities will be an outfielder and a rotation pitcher. While it's possible one or both will be acquired via trade, you can't trade for talent without giving talent, and Hendry has no surplus of that. So if he could address both spots via FA, that would have advantages. I'd be surprised if he addressed both via trade, we just don't have enough prospects for that.

 

This year they largely made up for lost picks by creative spending. Assuming they pick somewhere between 3 and 8 next summer, though, that will be a big-ticket sign. So not clear that they will feel any priority to do some creative spending later.

 

On the other hand, if they wanted to a deep draft might be just the time to do that. If a guy is worth and knows he's worth 2nd round money and won't sign for less, in a thin year a 2nd round talent will likely to in the 2nd round and be unavailable in the 5th or 9th or 11th. But in a deep year, some guys with first round talent will depress, some 2nd round talents will get knocked out. That may result in a much larger pool of signability guys following the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

[goonys evil twin]

So if he could address both spots via FA, that would have advantages. I'd be surprised if he addressed both via trade, we just don't have enough prospects for that.

 

Hendry is much more of a trading guy than a free agent guy, unless you're talking relievers and bench players. I can't see him signing 2 regulars, and I'd be surprised if he signed 1.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

So if he could address both spots via FA, that would have advantages. I'd be surprised if he addressed both via trade, we just don't have enough prospects for that.

 

Hendry is much more of a trading guy than a free agent guy, unless you're talking relievers and bench players. I can't see him signing 2 regulars, and I'd be surprised if he signed 1.

 

All it will take is 2 signings of average players for the Cubs to lose their 2nd and 3rd rounders.

 

I'll be frank, I want the Cubs to get Price and it looks like he'll be one of the top 2 to go. It might be just me but so far, there looks like there's a drop off after Main and Price.

[Mephistopheles]

I kind find guys I love outside of Price and Main. Justin Jackson (NC HS) a great guy to take.

 

- Plus bat speed

- Plus defensive arm at SS (90+ MPH)

- Plus hands

- above average power potential

 

The only question with him might be plate discipline but judging stuff like that on high school hitters is a crapshoot for the most part. I haven't read anything that says this guy has bad plate discipline. He's got tools that rate above average across the board and he's a kid with a great attitude and makeup.

 

No love for Matt Weiters? If he plays to his potential he could be one of the best college hitters since Mark Teixeira. He might not be a catcher due to his size, but he has an advanced approach, nice athleticism, plus power, plus average hitting and a plus arm. Given his arm he might be able to make the transition to right or third, where his bat plays nicely.

 

Yeah there is a dropoff after Price and Main, but are Justin Jackson and Matt Weiters as good as any last year? Probably. There is a lot of time to go between now and the draft.

 

Either Main, Price or Weiters should be there for the Cubs. Just hope Price decides to be advised by Scott Boras. Even if he's not a Boras Boy he could fall like Miller if he has high demands. Right now it looks like the draft could be:

 

1. Kansas City

2. Pittsburgh

3. Chicago

4. Tampa Bay

 

Tampa and the Cubs are tied, but given the Cubs' depth of rookies in their rotation, I like their chances of playing like crap more the rest of the season.

 

Both the Royals and the Pirates took college arms this time around, but both teams balked at the bonus demands that Miller floated around. Price is going to want just as much - at the minimum.

 

The Royals will probably shy away from Weiters considering they have enough guys at the corners and have little depth in pitching in their system. A guy like Sean Doolittle or Joe Savery (if he's healthy) are advanced college prospects who could easily sit right behind Price and not be overshadowed. Dolittle and Savery could want less on the bonus end than Price, making them attractive. The X factor among college corps is Andrew Brackman. The 6'10" RHP from NC State missed much of the season witha strained oblique and doubled as a power forward on the basketball team. He had a fabulous freshman season but struggled last season. However, he has been tremendous this summer. On the Cape he's touched 99 sitting 94-97 with a great downward plane. He was just added to Team USA and is going to Cuba with Price, Doolittle and Nick Schmidt. Just like this season it looks like there will be plenty of comparable college arms behind a standout that could shy away the Royals from dishing out a big bonus. However, I don't see the Royals getting burned on another HS arm.

 

Do you think the Pirates could cough up a bonus that big? Traditionally they've been a toolsy HS organization, save Lincoln. They will probably be all over Justin Jackson and Michael Main.

 

Tampa might take him, but again they passed on Miller for a cheaper and comparable guy. The difference between Price and the rest of the crop is no larger than the difference between Miller and the rest of the crop - I actually liked Lincoln more.

 

So if the Cubs fall no further than 4th in the draft, they've got a great shot at him, but I do think Wilken would have to think twice on Price's arm if Weiter's bat plays well this Spring, ditto for Jackson.

 

Going by wins:

38 Royals

41 Pirates

45 Cubs

45 Rays

47 Indians

48 Nationals

49 Orioles

 

The only team there who I would think would give out the bonus would be the O's. For kicks and giggles I like matching guys to who they may take:

 

38 Royals - Sean Doolittle, LHP

41 Pirates - Michael Main, RHP

45 Cubs - David Price, LHP

45 Rays - Justin Jackson, SS

47 Indians - Nick Schmidt, LHP

48 Nationals - Matt Weiters, C

49 Orioles - Andrew Brackman, RHP

 

Anyways to go back to the fact of losing draft picks. This draft is one of the deepest in recent memory, I think. So losing DPs would really hurt. Given the deadline deals, Hendry didn't learn from Theo's or Billy's Theory of Acquiring A Good Farm System Quickly = Stockpile.

 

 

In case you haven't noticed, I love following the draft and minors.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Great post, kc. There certainly is talent after the top 2 guys, and a few of them are very appealing to me (Brackman, Jackson, Wieters, Arencibia, and a personal fave of mine, Stock). It just seemed to me (and you agree) that Price and Main are firmly in the top 2 spots.

 

Good point that while those 2 are the top 2 talents, one of them easily could be taken a bit lower.

 

Price just seems so intriguing...

[the splendid splinter]

Price wont be there at 4 or 5 because teams will learn their lessons from past yrs and what KC did this yr with Hochevar. So you better hope that the Cubs lose like crazy and work there way to # 1 or 2 pick, if it stays at 4 or 5 hope for Weiters.

[Outshined_One]

Price wont be there at 4 or 5 because teams will learn their lessons from past yrs and what KC did this yr with Hochevar.

 

What lesson would that be, out of curiosity?

[craig]

Things are often pretty fluid. I wouldn't get too obsessed over needing to get Price and being disappoined if not. Brownlie looked awfully special the summer before his draft, too, and how good has he looked since? Prior was priority; would we mind exchanging him for Mauer or Teix now?

 

The good thing is that there promises to be a lot of good talent, and whether we hold at 3rd, slip to 4th, or fall to 5th or perhaps even 6th, it still looks like the pool will be way stronger than the harvey/Montanez drafts.

 

And while I'd love a great pitcher, I admit that given the injury risk (and the "not enough control to be true ace" risk) that goes with pitchers, I don't think I'd mind too much if it just happens to turn out that the best player available happens to be a position player.

 

Seems pretty exceptional for a guy who is supposed to be the top pitcher actually has both the health and the control to get to the majors and remain effective there for an extended period, much less function as an ace. Despite his injuries Beckett has been very good. After that, who are the best successes?

[Marmolade]

Tanner Robles - Sat 89-93 topping out at 94 at PGN. Great hammer curve as a southpaw, high upside. Scouts fell in love with him.

 

Madison Bumgarner - Touched 95 from the left side at PGN. Big frame (6'5" 220) gives him excellent projectability as a potential dominant ace from the left side. Lots of life on his electric fastball.

 

Hunter Morris - Like Demny burst onto the scene at PGN. Impressive power potential. Big fram 6'5" and good arm. Very raw, but has become one of the elite HS offensive prospects in the draft.

 

Brad Chalk, Clemson - Statistically speaking he has hit well in the post season, but many of his hits have been balls slapped to the opposite field which many would not be hits with a wooden bat. He still has not shown that he can turn on a good inside fastball.

 

Sequoyah Stonecipher - Mission Bay HS (CA) - one of the if not the toolsiest player in the draft. His tools are exceptional across the board, but scouts are not sure if he will learn to use him. If he shows a lot of the next year, he will quickly move up the draft boards. He was the second sleeper.

 

wow, there are some pretty sweet names in next years draft. I mean, come on -- Sequoyah Stonecipher?!

[Mephistopheles]

Price wont be there at 4 or 5 because teams will learn their lessons from past yrs and what KC did this yr with Hochevar. So you better hope that the Cubs lose like crazy and work there way to # 1 or 2 pick, if it stays at 4 or 5 hope for Weiters.

 

Well the Twins probably are not complaining after passing on Mark Prior. Then again every other year Joe Mauer (or Mark Teixeira) would be the top player available. That draft's top was ridiculous.

 

Brownlie looked awfully special the summer before his draft, too, and how good has he looked since?

 

You're right, but Brownlie got hurt. If Price gets hurt between now and next June, obviously his draft status is going to go into a freefall. Actually Brownlie looked pretty special the day of the draft. Reports were that his arm was completely healthy and he had an MRI that showed that that was performed a week before the draft. His final year at Rutgers he flashed a mid 90s fastball and a power hammer curve. However after he signed and showed up at the Cubs' camp his velocity was down 5+ MPH and hasn't ever recovered. Still, it was a good pick at the time and Brownlie's status that year is comparable to Brad Lincoln's this year and the Cubbies got him in the last third of the first round.

[the splendid splinter]

Actually that summer prior to the Brownlie draft his stuff started to fade, the Boras corp started to put the spin on it, that Brownlie was overworked from the spring before and his stuff would return which it never has! The next spring Browlies' stuff had went from 90-94 his soph yr to 87-90 which was quite a difference for Brownlie.

[Mephistopheles]

The scouting report from 2002 I am looking at says low 90s, which was down but he still came down even more once he signed with the Cubs.

[craig]

I'm not faulting the Browlie selection. It was an excellent risk at the place he was taken. It's just an example where a guy looked great the summer before the draft, but never looked as exciting again.

 

And injury is routinely the reason. (If anything, it almost seems as if guys who pitch long college season, then pitch for summer national teams maybe get fried more than normal. Especially if their coach uses them on short rest during the summer, as happened with Brownlie...)

 

Here are the first pitchers taken in the drafts since 1990 (guys taken in first 5 picks):

Alex Fernandez and Kurt Miller; Fernandez was good for a while, then got hurt.

91: Brien Talor, James Hendrson. Great prospect, till injuries...

92: Paul Shuey, Billy Wallace

93: Darren Dreifort, Brian Anderson, Wayne Gomes, Jeff Granger. Dreifort could have been great, minus injuries...

94: Paul Wilson, Dustin Hermandson. Wilson could have been great, minus injuries.... He was written up like the greatest thing ever...

95: Kerry Wood, Ariel Prieto. Wood could have been great, minus injuries....

96: Kris Benson, Braden Looper, Billy Koch, John Patterson. Benson was written up like the greatest thing ever, and mght have been great, minus the injuries....

97: Matt Anderson, Jason Grilli. Anderson had arm problems, I think, and never got control...

98: mark Mulder, Jeff Austen. Mulder had a good run. But after the first four years and 800 innings, he no longer had the arm he had as a draft prospect. Just an average talent trying to get by on smart now.

99: Josh Beckett. He's been pretty special at times. But he's battled a list of injuries.

00: Adam Johnson, Mike Stolka, Justin Wayne. By his second pro year, Johnson had a 15th rounder's arm, not the arm that made him the #2 pick.

01: Prior, Brazelton, Floyd. Prior projected as the greatest pitching prospect in history. But a series of injuries and his arm doesn't look that special anymore, and he's compiled only one really elite season.

02: Bryan Bullington, Gruler, Loewen, Evets. Bullington has had arm problems.

03: Sleeth, Stauffer. Both had arm problems

04: Verlander, Humber, Niemann, Rogers. Verlander is incredible. He's the exception to the had-arm-problems, not what he was. Of course, this is his first year. Who knows how long he'll hold up.

05: No pitchers taken in top 5, Romero first pitcher taken at #6.

 

Let me be very clear: I am *not* arguing that the Cubs shouldn't take Price, or a pitcher. That's beyond my scope. I am arguing that it's the rule, rather than the exception, that no matter how good a pitcher's arm looks when it's the summer before his draft year, that it's very, very unlikely that his arm still looks really special when he's 25 or 27.

 

The attrition rate is really incredible. And even for many who do come up as successes (Wood, Prior, Mulder), the odds that they are still front-line pitchers beyond their arbitration years doesn't look that great.

 

All I'm saying is, if we're set on Price but we end up forced to settle on some really good position prospect instead, we might not mind as much in 2012 or 2014 as we do in 2007. But, if we get a top pitcher and he turns in Verlander or Prior or Wood or Mulder or Beckett, and mysteriously dodges the injury bullets, who hoo.

[Mephistopheles]

No one's saying that arms don't get hurt. Right now Price is the man, but 10 months is a long time in the realm of draft prospects. Price would have rated higher than Miller on a lot of teams' draft boards this year. Of course things will change but why not prioritize right now?

 

There is nothing wrong with taking someone else if Price falters.

[craig]

Sure, but the end is not in how a guy looks at draft time. It's how he looks three, five, seven years later.

 

A lot of hitters look as good or better.

 

Most pitcher look a lot worse.

 

You get drafted on your arm. Pretty unusual for a top-five pitcher to have an arm that does not deteriorate substantially over the five-seven years following his draft summer.

 

It's fun to hope Price still looks good next draft, that we get him, and that he's the freak who never loses the arm. But make no mistake, if we draft him with average velocity of 94 or something, we should expect that once he's established in the league, he probably won't be throwing that hard, or his breaking pitch won't be as sharp as it is now.

[Mephistopheles]

It sounds as if you're arguing that no one should take a pitcher because they're stuff deteriorates.

[Outshined_One]

Honestly, I think the sample size for pitchers taken in the top 5 since 1990 is too small of a sample size to really make that kind of judgment.

 

Stop and think about how many pitchers are taken in the first round each year of the draft. How many of them even make it to the majors? How many make it to the majors and are productive? How many go on to become stars? How many of those guys were signability picks in the Top 5?

 

The MLB draft has a huge, huge number of players with so many factors coming into play that it's next to impossible to make that kind of solid judgment on taking a pitcher in the Top 5.

[Guest]

I'd be interested in a similar study of hitters over that time to see how many made it big and how many disappointed.

[Outshined_One]

I'd be interested in a similar study of hitters over that time to see how many made it big and how many disappointed.

 

One thing I will point out...5 picks is rather arbitrary. Why not 4? 6? Is there something about the number 5 that gives it ultimate value?

 

Anyways...Hitters taken in the Top 5:

 

1999

1. Braves Chipper Jones SS Pierson, FL

2. Tigers Tony Clark OF El Cajon, CA

3. Phillies Mike Lieberthal C Westlake, CA

 

1991

2. Braves Mike Kelly OF Arizona State U

3. Twins David McCarty OF Stanford U

4. Cardinals Dmitri Young SS Camarillo, CA

 

1992

1. Astros Phil Nevin 3B Cal State Fullerton

4. Orioles Jeffrey Hammonds OF Stanford U

5. Reds Chad Mottola OF Central Florida U

 

1993

1. Mariners Alex Rodriguez SS Miami, FL

 

1994

2. Athletics Ben Grieve OF Arlington, TX

4. Brewers Tony Williamson 3B Arizona State U

5. Marlins Josh Booty SS Shreveport, LA

 

1995

1. Angels Darin Erstad OF U of Nebraska

2. Padres Mark Davis C Malvern, PA

3. Mariners Jose Cruz, Jr. OF Rice U

 

1996

2. Twins Travis Lee 1B San Diego State U

 

1997

2. Phillies *J.D. Drew OF Florida State U

3. Angels Troy Glaus 3B UCLA

5. Blue Jays Vernon Wells OF Arlington, TX

 

1998

1. Phillies Pat Burrell 1B U. of Miami (FL)

3. Cubs Corey Patterson OF Kennesaw, GA

5. Cardinals J.D. Drew OF No School

 

1999

1. Devil Rays Josh Hamilton OF Raleigh, NC

3. Tigers Eric Munson C U. of Southern California

4. Diamondbacks Corey Myers SS Scottsdale, AZ

5. Twins B.J. Garbe OF Moses Lake, WA

 

2000

1. Marlins Adrian Gonzalez 1B Chula Vista, CA

3. Cubs Luis Montanez SS Miami, FL

 

2001

1. Twins Joe Mauer C Cretin-Derham Hall HS, St. Paul

5. Rangers Mark Teixeira 3B Georgia Tech

 

2002

2. Devil Rays B.J. Upton SS Greenbriar Christian, Chesapeake, VA

 

2003

1. Devil Rays Delmon Young RF Adolfo Camarillo HS

2. Brewers Rickie Weeks 2B Southern U A&M

5. Royals Christopher Lubanski CF Kennedy-Kenrick Catholic

 

2004

1. Padres Matthew Bush SS Mission Bay HS

 

2005

1. Diamondbacks Justin Upton SS Great Bridge HS Chesapeake, VA

2. Royals Alex Gordon 3B Univ. of Nebraska Lincoln, NE

3. Mariners Jeffrey Clement C Univ. of Southern Cal. Marshalltown, IA

4. Nationals Ryan Zimmerman 3B Univ. of Virginia Virginia Beach, VA

5. Brewers Ryan Braun 3B Univ. of Miami Granada Hills, CA

[RonnieWooWooSanto]

2004

1. Padres Matthew Bush SS Mission Bay HS

 

Not to completely derail this thread completely, but briefly what happended to Matt Bush and how is he doing(assuming he is playing)?

 

I know he got into some trouble after being drafted. Does he have a bad reputation or does it seem that was a one time thing?

[Mephistopheles]

Honestly, I think the sample size for pitchers taken in the top 5 since 1990 is too small of a sample size to really make that kind of judgment.

 

Most importantly the best pitching prospect in the draft rarely goes in the top 5 it seems.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

2004

1. Padres Matthew Bush SS Mission Bay HS

 

Not to completely derail this thread completely, but briefly what happended to Matt Bush and how is he doing(assuming he is playing)?

 

I know he got into some trouble after being drafted. Does he have a bad reputation or does it seem that was a one time thing?

 

He's done horribly and had most of this season derailed by an ankle injury.

 

Here are his stats this season at low-A Ft. Wayne.

 

And here are his career minor league stats.

 

Going into this season, he's been a career .217/.284/.273/.557 hitter in the AZL, NWL and MWL.

[Mephistopheles]

He'll be converted to a pitcher within 18 months. He was a pretty good pitching prospect in HS, topping out at 94 iirc.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

He'll be converted to a pitcher within 18 months. He was a pretty good pitching prospect in HS, topping out at 94 iirc.

 

Man, they could have had Drew or Weaver...