3/19 ST Cubs (Williams) vs A's (Zito) SS

[BeerHere]

Wuertz is really hurting his chances.

[badger1679666666]

Wuertz is really hurting his chances.

 

hurting what chances? It's not like he's gonna be left off the roster.

[Jehrico]

Wuertz is really hurting his chances.

 

I don't think so. Wuertz's success is based on his control, as he constantly attacks the edges of the zone. It's not based on overpowering stuff. I'd expect him to start off ST like this until he fine tunes his control. I'd be more worried if he isn't sharper at the end of ST.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Wuertz is really hurting his chances.

 

I don't think so. Wuertz's success is based on his control, as he constantly attacks the edges of the zone. It's not based on overpowering stuff. I'd expect him to start off ST like this until he fine tunes his control. I'd be more worried if he isn't sharper at the end of ST.

 

Actually, Wuertz has pretty good stuff, especially his slider. Someone posted some interesting data about contact that Wuertz gets a tremendous amount of swings and misses.

[Jehrico]

Wuertz is really hurting his chances.

 

I don't think so. Wuertz's success is based on his control, as he constantly attacks the edges of the zone. It's not based on overpowering stuff. I'd expect him to start off ST like this until he fine tunes his control. I'd be more worried if he isn't sharper at the end of ST.

 

Actually, Wuertz has pretty good stuff, especially his slider. Someone posted some interesting data about contact that Wuertz gets a tremendous amount of swings and misses.

 

He does have good stuff, but he struggles when he doesn't hit his spots.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Wuertz is really hurting his chances.

 

I don't think so. Wuertz's success is based on his control, as he constantly attacks the edges of the zone. It's not based on overpowering stuff. I'd expect him to start off ST like this until he fine tunes his control. I'd be more worried if he isn't sharper at the end of ST.

 

Actually, Wuertz has pretty good stuff, especially his slider. Someone posted some interesting data about contact that Wuertz gets a tremendous amount of swings and misses.

 

He does have good stuff, but he struggles when he doesn't hit his spots.

 

what pitcher doesn't struggle when they miss their spots?

[Jehrico]

Wuertz is really hurting his chances.

 

I don't think so. Wuertz's success is based on his control, as he constantly attacks the edges of the zone. It's not based on overpowering stuff. I'd expect him to start off ST like this until he fine tunes his control. I'd be more worried if he isn't sharper at the end of ST.

 

Actually, Wuertz has pretty good stuff, especially his slider. Someone posted some interesting data about contact that Wuertz gets a tremendous amount of swings and misses.

 

He does have good stuff, but he struggles when he doesn't hit his spots.

 

what pitcher doesn't struggle when they miss their spots?

 

Some guys are better than others at getting hitters to swing at stuff outside of the zone. Wuertz is not one of those. Some guys don't struggle as much if they're not hitting their spots. Kerry Wood is one of those guys when he's got his A game.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Wuertz is really hurting his chances.

 

I don't think so. Wuertz's success is based on his control, as he constantly attacks the edges of the zone. It's not based on overpowering stuff. I'd expect him to start off ST like this until he fine tunes his control. I'd be more worried if he isn't sharper at the end of ST.

 

Actually, Wuertz has pretty good stuff, especially his slider. Someone posted some interesting data about contact that Wuertz gets a tremendous amount of swings and misses.

 

He does have good stuff, but he struggles when he doesn't hit his spots.

 

what pitcher doesn't struggle when they miss their spots?

 

Some guys are better than others at getting hitters to swing at stuff outside of the zone. Wuertz is not one of those. Some guys don't struggle as much if they're not hitting their spots. Kerry Wood is one of those guys when he's got his A game.

 

OK, Woody might be one of the filthiest pitchers in baseball. I don't know any middle relievers with his stuff. Not one.

[Diffusion]

Wuertz is really hurting his chances.

 

I don't think so. Wuertz's success is based on his control, as he constantly attacks the edges of the zone. It's not based on overpowering stuff. I'd expect him to start off ST like this until he fine tunes his control. I'd be more worried if he isn't sharper at the end of ST.

 

Actually, Wuertz has pretty good stuff, especially his slider. Someone posted some interesting data about contact that Wuertz gets a tremendous amount of swings and misses.

 

He does have good stuff, but he struggles when he doesn't hit his spots.

 

what pitcher doesn't struggle when they miss their spots?

 

Some guys are better than others at getting hitters to swing at stuff outside of the zone. Wuertz is not one of those...

 

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/03/pitchers_pitch_1.php

 

After the pitcher throws the ball, the batter can either swing or take the pitch. Batters should typically be expected to swing at a high percentage of pitches inside the strike zone, but what I find fascinating are pitchers that can make batters swing at pitches outside the strike zone. For this we're going to look at outside swing percentage (OSwing) which is the percentage of pitches thrown outside the strike zone a batter swings at.

 

Perhaps you could consider this a measure of deception. Pitchers will cause batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone anywhere from 9% to 31% of the time. It doesn't have a great correlation with anything, but I suppose it matches up best with a pitcher's strikeout to walk ratio. Once again, let's look at the top and bottom 5 lists for starting pitchers...

 

Top 5 OSwing		          Bottom 5 OSwing	
Brad Radke      31.51%		Hayden Penn     13.75%
Johan Santana   30.43%		John Maine      13.41%
Curt Schilling  29.75%		Zach Day        13.10%
Felix Hernandez 28.59%		Glendon Rusch   11.99%
Odalis Perez    27.94%		Scott Erickson   9.95%

 

In the top 5 we have a pretty interesting list including arguably the best pitcher in baseball Johan Santana who's only second in OSwing to his teammate Brad Radke. Felix Hernandez also shows up and is the only player on the list who has a ZRatio less than 1. On the bottom of the list, there's not really anyone worth mentioning.

 

Top 5 OSwing		          Bottom 5 OSwing	
Brad Lidge      32.54%		Jesus Colome    12.43%
Rudy Seanez     30.24%		Matt Mantei     12.32%
Derrick Turnbow 28.48%		Armando Benitez 11.67%
Mike Wuertz     28.11%		Danny Kolb      11.03%
J. Papelbon     27.87%		Nate Bump        9.82%

 

The top list of relievers is just as impressive with two closers. Only Mike Wuertz has an ERA over 3. Bringing up the rear are former closers Matt Mantei and Danny Kolb. And then there's Armando Benitez which I find particularly odd. I'm really not sure what he's doing there, but I bet if you were to look at his OSwing in previous seasons, it wouldn't be anywhere near the bottom.

 

Erm, fourth best reliever in all of baseball at it in 2005?

[Diffusion]

And there's more involving Wuertz...

 

Same source, just didn't notice it the first time...

 

Moving along, once a batter has decided to swing at a pitch, he can either make contact with it or whiff at the ball. Pitchers will have batters swing and hit their pitchers between 60% and 90% of the time. Let's simply call this Contact, which is the percentage of pitches a batter makes contact with when he swings the bat. Obviously this will correlate quite well with a pitcher's strikeouts.

 

Looking at the top and bottom 5 Contact lists for starting pitchers; Johan Santana makes another appearance on a top list. It looks like if Kerry Wood could actually stay healthy he's still got what it takes to make batters miss along with Kelvim Escobar who is not just looking to stay healthy but could also join the pitching elite. The bottom of the list is scattered with pitchers who barely strikeout anyone including Carlos Silva. Should I just reserve a spot for a Twins starting pitcher on every list?

 

Bottom 5 Contact	         Top 5 Contact	
Kirk Rueter     91.58%		Ezeq. Astacio   74.46%
Carlos Silva    91.08%		Johan Santana   74.26%
Kirk Saarloos   89.66%		Jake Peavy      73.86%
Shawn Estes     89.21%		Kelvim Escobar  71.81%
Ryan Drese      89.09%		Kerry Wood      70.45%

 

Taking a look at the relievers, there's two of the best closers in Brad Lidge and Joe Nathan on the top list. Ugueth Urbina used to close but recently has ended up on teams with established closers. Weurtz shows up on another list. Could he possibly be a future closer? At the bottom of the list are pitchers you wouldn't trust to close out Little League games.

 

Bottom 5 Contact		      Top 5 Contact	
Paul Quantrill  91.21%		Joe Nathan      67.51%
Scott Munter    90.44%		Ugueth Urbina   67.24%
Kevin Gryboski  90.20%		Mike Wuertz     60.45%
Nate Bump       90.04%		Brad Lidge      59.86%
Jesse Crain     88.12%		Rudy Seanez     59.25%

 

Third best reliever at inducing swings and misses in 2005?

 

Fourth best reliever at inducing swings at pitches outside the zone in 2005?

 

I'll say his stuff's just fine in a filthy sort of way. It's all the slider.

[Diffusion]

Of course, none of that's to say that he doesn't have control issues.

[Jehrico]

And there's more involving Wuertz...

 

Same source, just didn't notice it the first time...

 

Moving along, once a batter has decided to swing at a pitch, he can either make contact with it or whiff at the ball. Pitchers will have batters swing and hit their pitchers between 60% and 90% of the time. Let's simply call this Contact, which is the percentage of pitches a batter makes contact with when he swings the bat. Obviously this will correlate quite well with a pitcher's strikeouts.

 

Looking at the top and bottom 5 Contact lists for starting pitchers; Johan Santana makes another appearance on a top list. It looks like if Kerry Wood could actually stay healthy he's still got what it takes to make batters miss along with Kelvim Escobar who is not just looking to stay healthy but could also join the pitching elite. The bottom of the list is scattered with pitchers who barely strikeout anyone including Carlos Silva. Should I just reserve a spot for a Twins starting pitcher on every list?

 

Bottom 5 Contact	         Top 5 Contact	
Kirk Rueter     91.58%		Ezeq. Astacio   74.46%
Carlos Silva    91.08%		Johan Santana   74.26%
Kirk Saarloos   89.66%		Jake Peavy      73.86%
Shawn Estes     89.21%		Kelvim Escobar  71.81%
Ryan Drese      89.09%		Kerry Wood      70.45%

 

Taking a look at the relievers, there's two of the best closers in Brad Lidge and Joe Nathan on the top list. Ugueth Urbina used to close but recently has ended up on teams with established closers. Weurtz shows up on another list. Could he possibly be a future closer? At the bottom of the list are pitchers you wouldn't trust to close out Little League games.

 

Bottom 5 Contact		      Top 5 Contact	
Paul Quantrill  91.21%		Joe Nathan      67.51%
Scott Munter    90.44%		Ugueth Urbina   67.24%
Kevin Gryboski  90.20%		Mike Wuertz     60.45%
Nate Bump       90.04%		Brad Lidge      59.86%
Jesse Crain     88.12%		Rudy Seanez     59.25%

 

Third best reliever at inducing swings and misses in 2005?

 

Fourth best reliever at inducing swings at pitches outside the zone in 2005?

 

I'll say his stuff's just fine in a filthy sort of way. It's all the slider.

 

The numbers prove me wrong, but from what I've seen, I still think his ability to spot his pitches where he wants helps or hurts him more than others. Maybe I'm backwards, maybe he's getting too much of the plate early in the spring, as what you've posted suggests he's successful outside the zone. I haven't been able to watch him yet. Anyone with any feedback as to how much of the zone he seems to be getting when he's getting hit? Is he throwing his slider alot, or is he spending more time tuning in his FB? I'm not terribly worried about his early ST performance. If he's still getting hit as ST comes to an end, then maybe...

[MPrior]

Wuertz relies pretty heavily on his slider, and, as all pitchers do, his control, as has been said. A slider's not an easy pitch to throw, so he might just not have it yet. Similarly, it takes a while to master his control. I think (read: hope) he'll be fine.

[Diffusion]

The numbers prove me wrong, but from what I've seen, I still think his ability to spot his pitches where he wants helps or hurts him more than others.

 

The numbers only prove that you're wrong with respect to Wuertz's ability in 2005 to induce swings at pitches that crossed the plate outside of the zone.

 

They do not however necessarily say anything about whether he's hurt more of less than others by control issues.

 

Because, if you think about, getting hitters to swing at pitches outside the zone requires that you're able to trick them into thinking that the pitch will cross the plate inside the zone.

 

Therefore, even a slider that drops out of the strike zone (and would, if taken, be a ball) can be representative of good control.

 

So, statistically, it's extremely difficult to say whether or not Wuertz is more or less dependent upon other pitchers upon good control.

 

Theoretically, at least, the better your stuff the harder it is to hit, regardless of where you locate it. Theoretically.

 

And Wuertz's stuff is pretty good. Nay, extremely good.

 

Anyway, this conversation is pretty irrelevant, because I think it's entirely clear that if Wuertz wants to succeed, he has to throw strikes, or at least pitches that hitters think are strikes.

 

Limiting the number of walks he allows, if he can maintain the rest of his game, will undisputedly make him just flat out nasty.

 

But there's something to be said for the observation that because Wuertz relies on hitters chasing sliders out of the strike zone to rack up his dominating strikeout numbers, and so throws sliders out the strike zone, pitches that would be balls were they not swing at, he's more likely than most to walk hitters, especially if they're patient.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The numbers prove me wrong, but from what I've seen, I still think his ability to spot his pitches where he wants helps or hurts him more than others.

 

The numbers only prove that you're wrong with respect to Wuertz's ability in 2005 to induce swings at pitches that crossed the plate outside of the zone.

 

They do not however necessarily say anything about whether he's hurt more of less than others by control issues.

 

Because, if you think about, getting hitters to swing at pitches outside the zone requires that you're able to trick them into thinking that the pitch will cross the plate inside the zone.

 

Therefore, even a slider that drops out of the strike zone (and would, if taken, be a ball) can be representative of good control.

 

So, statistically, it's extremely difficult to say whether or not Wuertz is more or less dependent upon other pitchers upon good control.

 

Theoretically, at least, the better your stuff the harder it is to hit, regardless of where you locate it. Theoretically.

 

And Wuertz's stuff is pretty good. Nay, extremely good.

 

Anyway, this conversation is pretty irrelevant, because I think it's entirely clear that if Wuertz wants to succeed, he has to throw strikes, or at least pitches that hitters think are strikes.

 

Limiting the number of walks he allows, if he can maintain the rest of his game, will undisputedly make him just flat out nasty.

 

But there's something to be said for the observation that because Wuertz relies on hitters chasing sliders out of the strike zone to rack up his dominating strikeout numbers, and so throws sliders out the strike zone, pitches that would be balls were they not swing at, he's more likely than most to walk hitters, especially if they're patient.

 

It would seem to make sense then that Wuertz would be able to be effective as a closer using the same logic that some have used with Dempster. Batters are less patient when save situations come about, are more likely to chase pitches, which plays into the strengths of Wuertz(and Dempster for that matter). Continuing to think out loud, if Wuertz shows some ability to not walk people and continue the great K rate, along with the Cubs falling out of the race, what would Dempster bring at the deadline(assuming he hasn't fallen off the face of the earth)?

Edited March 20, 2006 by Transmogrified Tiger

[Geech]

That's definitely an interesting thought, but with his contract, Dempster would only be valuable if he was still pitching very well. There's no way Hendry trades him in that situation.

[ManCrushOnNomar]

This is great conversation, I've been a Wuertz fan since 2004, but I had no idea he's on the same plane as some of the names mentioned (at least in those obscure stats).

 

I'll always remember that game where he pitched the entire inning throwing nothing but sliders and took them down 1,2,3.